The next 24 days are critical

[Hyena]

*The next 24 days are absolutely critical

[dannyspk]

The point is, you have to realize that the market makers know that all of us are looking at charts in this pattern and they will do everything to shake out the weak hands. A point where the get rich/impatient have gotten out and only the smart traders are going to drive this rally. This is what the whole of 2014 was about. People who rode 2014 without selling or giving up are certainly going to be rewarded.

[Shiver]

If it went north in a significant way, and if at that time I had a need for FIAT then I might unload a small percentage to straddle both worlds, but my overall intention would be to live in crypto.  Added to that, if I didn't have a FIAT need at that time, then I'd load up on the dips and back it up more. 

We all have different circumstances and timing, but I'm here for crypto, not for making numbers in crappy national paper currency, even though we all have to still use it for now on a day to day basis.

[8up]

the unexpected will happen. IMO the unexpected is neither a price increase nor a decline. this means we will have some more fun with a stable bitcoin.

[uki]

the unexpected will happen. IMO the unexpected is neither a price increase nor a decline. this means we will have some more fun with a stable bitcoin.

exactly. I already wrote that we have a month or two more of horizontal trend ahead. Until then more boring action to be expected.

[Morecoin Freeman]

With bitcoin it is always critical.

[techgeek]

24 days? you mean like 24 hrs every day right?

bitcoin goes up and down, unless you are trading in 1 hr time frame which means you are a intra-daytrader all this trendline support is just a hopeful guide. Also, why set it to 1 day? so that means you are a swing trader?

[ensurance982]

I actually agree pretty much with the TA and general analysis provided in this thread! The day-to-day TA-speculation (yes, speculation) is more or less just looking into a crystal ball. But looking at 2 year charts really seems to be pretty helpful!

[uki]

I actually agree pretty much with the TA and general analysis provided in this thread! The day-to-day TA-speculation (yes, speculation) is more or less just looking into a crystal ball. But looking at 2 year charts really seems to be pretty helpful!

Sure, I agree that only longer-term view counts and that is why most of the daily-based topics in the speculation section are not really worth much.
Having said that, I expect more of the sideways trend: first we break down on what OP painted, and then we find new support line rising from the bottom of the channel and stay in sidewards till summer (or sooner if bigger crash in stocks causes some money to move into Bitcoin).

[ensurance982]

I actually agree pretty much with the TA and general analysis provided in this thread! The day-to-day TA-speculation (yes, speculation) is more or less just looking into a crystal ball. But looking at 2 year charts really seems to be pretty helpful!

Sure, I agree that only longer-term view counts and that is why most of the daily-based topics in the speculation section are not really worth much.
Having said that, I expect more of the sideways trend: first we break down on what OP painted, and then we find new support line rising from the bottom of the channel and stay in sidewards till summer (or sooner if bigger crash in stocks causes some money to move into Bitcoin).

I don't know... We're still at a point where higher volatility would be expected. Summers are always dull. Breaking out of that trend will be major bullish. Breaking down will end in a prolonged downtrend for another 4 months or so... Back to $180 at least...

[Luthier]

OK so here's where we are now.  The fakeouts below the rising support are a little disconcerting.  We've been nudging up against the top of the downtrend channel for a while, reminding me of May-Aug 2014, before the triangle represented by just the 1163 bubble collapsed.  If the same thing happens with the trendline encompassing both bubbles, Bitcoin could take a blow like we've never seen before...

[RyNinDaCleM]

OK so here's where we are now.  The fakeouts below the rising support are a little disconcerting.  We've been nudging up against the top of the downtrend channel for a while, reminding me of May-Aug 2014, before the triangle represented by just the 1163 bubble collapsed.  If the same thing happens with the trendline encompassing both bubbles, Bitcoin could take a blow like we've never seen before...

Wait, so now you're thinking $10-15 for the bottom if we break that lower trend line? Even I'm not that bearish 

[Luthier]

Wait, so now you're thinking $10-15 for the bottom if we break that lower trend line? Even I'm not that bearish 

I think it seems possible but not likely.  That would signify basically a "Bitcoin failure" situation where we see capitulation from even long-time holders as Bitcoin becomes relegated to the "antique technology museum", still retaining some small value for historical and scientific significance.  Everyone has to agree that that is a real possibility for the future, maybe as much as 10-20% chance.  For that to happen it would likely involve people flocking to a new crypto asset, picture Ripple making some kind of massive announcement and amassing a large portion of Bitcoin's market cap.

The more likely scenario it seems to me is that we will resolve positively out of the triangle, but after that, it's very difficult to predict what will happen because the possible upside is a much more vast range than the downside. 

[minerpumpkin]

Yeah I believe $10 per coin are a bit unrealistic, even if things are looking rather bearish these days! Most people won't be willing to sell their stash for those prices, or even at current prices. Downtrends can only go so far and have to end at some point. Missing that very point may get you margin-called quicker than you may realize!

[ensurance982]

*The next 24 days are absolutely critical

If nothing happens, I believe we'll have to wait another 1-2 months, and then we can go and say that things have changed. Until then, we can just wait for another surprise breakout (which will be highly bullish, since it is unheard of since 2013) or a continuing fall.

[tokeweed]

IMO these are the only 3 lines you need to draw.
The convergence of the uptrend and the top of the downtrend channel will happen around April 26th or so.
If we are above $230 at the end of the month, uptrend is confirmed.  If we are below $230, say hello to the bottom of the channel soon (high double digits).
Thoughts?

Are we there yet?

[Luthier]

Just about but we still haven't closed a weekly candle outside of it as I expected.

[Morecoin Freeman]

I wish for $10 - $15 but that will not happen.

[pleaseexplain]

I think your bottom line is too high. You have it touching nov 2014 and that creates the line to go up failry sharply. That period was I think a gox period when data is all rubbish because of the bot. So I think it should be lower and that makes the crucial period some time away? am I reading the chart right?

[fearlesscat10]

I wish for $10 - $15 but that will not happen.

Agreed. Double digits may be possible but I don't think we'll ever see sub $50 ever again.