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Title: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: adamstgBit on August 17, 2012, 11:03:07 PM Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: finkleshnorts on August 17, 2012, 11:04:47 PM So many unknowns! As much as I hate being USD-exposed, I'm selling more right now and hoping to profit from the volatility. But I'm fully anticipating single digits followed by a big swing back up.
Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: ruski on August 17, 2012, 11:06:46 PM If nothing else, it was the buy-in opportunity that everyone's been waiting for. Yesterday was insane. The rally was otherwise solid IMO.
bitcoinbitcoin113's burp theory is playing out to the letter, though, I must say. Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: smoothie on August 17, 2012, 11:10:43 PM So many unknowns! As much as I hate being USD-exposed, I'm selling more right now and hoping to profit from the volatility. But I'm fully anticipating single digits followed by a big swing back up. <sarcasm> yes me too I expect it to go to $1 then back up to $20.... </sarcasm> keep dreaming.... :D Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: augustocroppo on August 17, 2012, 11:15:54 PM If nothing else, it was the buy-in opportunity that everyone's been waiting for. Yesterday was insane. The rally was otherwise solid IMO. bitcoinbitcoin113's burp theory is playing out to the letter, though, I must say. I disagree. There will be no market for prices above US$ 15, unless more than 75% of the Bitcoins already produced are put in circulation. That is not what is happening, so the price will fall with unexpected dumps or buying pressure. Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: smoothie on August 17, 2012, 11:18:16 PM If nothing else, it was the buy-in opportunity that everyone's been waiting for. Yesterday was insane. The rally was otherwise solid IMO. bitcoinbitcoin113's burp theory is playing out to the letter, though, I must say. I disagree. There will be no market for prices above US$ 15, unless more than 75% of the Bitcoins already produced are put in circulation. That is not what is happening, so the price will fall with unexpected dumps or buying pressure. I think you will be proved wrong in the coming weeks. Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: finkleshnorts on August 17, 2012, 11:19:02 PM Odds of pirate repaying everyone who then cash out + odds of downward volatility + odds of pirate dumping his coins + odds of people who have not yet seen the market today who freak later > odds of no drop in price. JMHO
Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: ruski on August 17, 2012, 11:19:24 PM If nothing else, it was the buy-in opportunity that everyone's been waiting for. Yesterday was insane. The rally was otherwise solid IMO. bitcoinbitcoin113's burp theory is playing out to the letter, though, I must say. I disagree. There will be no market for prices above US$ 15, unless more than 75% of the Bitcoins already produced are put in circulation. That is not what is happening, so the price will fall with unexpected dumps or buying pressure. More bitcoins in circulation will result in a higher price? I think you've got that backward. The point is that there is a market for Bitcoins as a medium of exchange, not only as a speculative instrument. People buying BTC to buy other stuff do not care what the current price is, as long as it isn't going to lose 20% of its value in the next 20 minutes. So they buy at market price. That's what we've been seeing for this whole rally. Yesterday was a mini-bubble IMO and it broke gracefully. Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: morkai421 on August 17, 2012, 11:20:13 PM Up. Not as fast, imho.
Anyway I can't see btc below 20$ in 2 years. Bull all the way Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: augustocroppo on August 17, 2012, 11:35:10 PM More bitcoins in circulation will result in a higher price? I think you've got that backward. The point is that there is a market for Bitcoins as a medium of exchange, not only as a speculative instrument. People buying BTC to buy other stuff do not care what the current price is, as long as it isn't going to lose 20% of its value in the next 20 minutes. So they buy at market price. That's what we've been seeing for this whole rally. Yesterday was a mini-bubble IMO and it broke gracefully. I disagree, people do care about the current price. Bitcoin is not an independent currency, it still evaluated regarding the price of other currencies, mainly the USD. So if a buyer buy Bitcoins to buy any good or service, he/she will obviously compare the prices of the desired product in both currencies. Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: smoothie on August 17, 2012, 11:38:07 PM Odds of pirate repaying everyone who then cash out + odds of downward volatility + odds of pirate dumping his coins + odds of people who have not yet seen the market today who freak later > odds of no drop in price. JMHO Pirate doesn't have all of the bitcoins that he was given from his investors. If he did he could repay starting today. That means he has USD. And if he needs to get the bitcoins from his "clients" or on the open market. They will cost more than he sold them to his investors for. If thats the case he has to buy them on the open market thus moving the price up. Your theory suggests all investors with pirate (if) they ALL get their bitcoins back (very unlikely) will sell (somewhat likely). I say odds are against your theory as opposed to in favor of it. Remember there is only about 75k max bitcoins on the sell order book on MtGox. He owes 500k+ btc. Get the picture? ::) ::) ::) Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: augustocroppo on August 17, 2012, 11:41:36 PM Remember there is only about 75k max bitcoins on the sell order book on MtGox. He owes 500k+ btc. Get the picture? ::) ::) ::) Wow. That is an interesting factor. This indeed could have a strong influence on the Bitcoin network economy. Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: ruski on August 17, 2012, 11:44:00 PM More bitcoins in circulation will result in a higher price? I think you've got that backward. The point is that there is a market for Bitcoins as a medium of exchange, not only as a speculative instrument. People buying BTC to buy other stuff do not care what the current price is, as long as it isn't going to lose 20% of its value in the next 20 minutes. So they buy at market price. That's what we've been seeing for this whole rally. Yesterday was a mini-bubble IMO and it broke gracefully. I disagree, people do care about the current price. Bitcoin is not an independent currency, it still evaluated regarding the price of other currencies, mainly the USD. So if a buyer buy Bitcoins to buy any good or service, he/she will obviously compare the prices of the desired product in both currencies. You missed the point. On what planet is anything being sold for a fixed price in BTC without regard to the exchange rate? A $10 pair of socks would cost 5 BTC with BTC at $2. With BTC at $10 it costs 1 BTC. It still costs $10 either way, ergo the buyer doesn't care about the exchange rate. This is pretty basic stuff. I'm tempted to call troll. Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: adamstgBit on August 17, 2012, 11:45:04 PM Remember there is only about 75k max bitcoins on the sell order book on MtGox. He owes 500k+ btc. Get the picture? ::) ::) ::) Wow. That is an interesting factor. This indeed could have a strong influence on the Bitcoin network economy. pirate is out of the game! he said him self he made a deal with his big investors ( they will take the USD he made with all the bitcoin he sold ) all the other little guys can get their bitcoins back ( or not ) he's not buying any coins... Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: augustocroppo on August 17, 2012, 11:47:00 PM You missed the point. On what planet is anything being sold for a fixed price in BTC without regard to the exchange rate? A $10 pair of socks would cost 5 BTC with BTC at $2. With BTC at $10 it costs 1 BTC. It still costs $10 either way, ergo the buyer doesn't care about the exchange rate. This is pretty basic stuff. I'm tempted to call troll. In no planet. ...and I did not missed any point. Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: ruski on August 17, 2012, 11:49:34 PM Remember there is only about 75k max bitcoins on the sell order book on MtGox. He owes 500k+ btc. Get the picture? ::) ::) ::) Wow. That is an interesting factor. This indeed could have a strong influence on the Bitcoin network economy. Not really - that's assuming he plans to buy any of it back. If he doesn't, which I don't see being possible with the btc that are even available, then we've seen the last of the influence there. Unless he does pay the big investors back in USD, and they decide to buy back into BTC with it. Even then there aren't enough BTC to go around for that much cash without the price hitting the hundreds. I don't think we'll see too much more fallout from this, in either direction. Business as usual. Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: thezerg on August 17, 2012, 11:51:42 PM Remember there is only about 75k max bitcoins on the sell order book on MtGox. He owes 500k+ btc. Get the picture? ::) ::) ::) Wow. That is an interesting factor. This indeed could have a strong influence on the Bitcoin network economy. pirate is out of the game! he said him self he made a deal with his big investors ( they will take the USD he made with all the bitcoin he sold ) all the other little guys can get their bitcoins back ( or not ) he's not buying any coins... link? Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: augustocroppo on August 17, 2012, 11:53:16 PM If nothing else, it was the buy-in opportunity that everyone's been waiting for. Yesterday was insane. The rally was otherwise solid IMO. bitcoinbitcoin113's burp theory is playing out to the letter, though, I must say. I disagree. There will be no market for prices above US$ 15, unless more than 75% of the Bitcoins already produced are put in circulation. That is not what is happening, so the price will fall with unexpected dumps or buying pressure. I think you will be proved wrong in the coming weeks. More dump coming, the Mt.Gox market will not resist: http://www.bitcoinmonitor.com/ http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://img407.imageshack.us/img407/845/panic17082012cont1.png (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/407/panic17082012cont1.png/) Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us) Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: adamstgBit on August 17, 2012, 11:54:14 PM Remember there is only about 75k max bitcoins on the sell order book on MtGox. He owes 500k+ btc. Get the picture? ::) ::) ::) Wow. That is an interesting factor. This indeed could have a strong influence on the Bitcoin network economy. pirate is out of the game! he said him self he made a deal with his big investors ( they will take the USD he made with all the bitcoin he sold ) all the other little guys can get their bitcoins back ( or not ) he's not buying any coins... link? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.msg605957#msg605957 Quote So now what? I’ve spoken with my clients over the last week and come to an agreement that would allow me to close down my operation within a week. Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: augustocroppo on August 17, 2012, 11:56:22 PM Unless he does pay the big investors back in USD, and they decide to buy back into BTC with it. Even then there aren't enough BTC to go around for that much cash without the price hitting the hundreds. I thought you think that "ergo the buyer doesn't care about the exchange rate"... 8) Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: ruski on August 17, 2012, 11:56:34 PM https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.msg605957#msg605957 Quote So now what? I’ve spoken with my clients over the last week and come to an agreement that would allow me to close down my operation within a week. Sorry to state the obvious, but that doesn't mean he's agreed to settle in USD. Better source? Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: thezerg on August 17, 2012, 11:56:59 PM Oh come on that is extremely unclear. It could even be that he intends to proceed with whatever he's doing (assuming its not a ponzi) privately with his largest investors...
Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: ruski on August 17, 2012, 11:57:33 PM Unless he does pay the big investors back in USD, and they decide to buy back into BTC with it. Even then there aren't enough BTC to go around for that much cash without the price hitting the hundreds. I thought you think that "ergo the buyer doesn't care about the exchange rate"... 8) Buyers wanting to trade with it don't care. Speculators do. Keep missing that point. 8) Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: oakpacific on August 18, 2012, 12:00:04 AM I should congratulate Adam for getting the correction percentage right, what he didn't get right is the price...
Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: augustocroppo on August 18, 2012, 12:06:26 AM Unless he does pay the big investors back in USD, and they decide to buy back into BTC with it. Even then there aren't enough BTC to go around for that much cash without the price hitting the hundreds. I thought you think that "ergo the buyer doesn't care about the exchange rate"... 8) Buyers wanting to trade with it don't care. Speculators do. Keep missing that point. 8) No, you missed your own point since you did not cited "speculators" before. Since you admit above that "they", the "speculators", want "to buy back", you confirm that buyers do care about the price, as I had already explained before. Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: ruski on August 18, 2012, 12:08:16 AM http://oi46.tinypic.com/op8odf.jpg
It's like the whole market's got a massive hangover. I think might even be back up at $14-15 within a few days, and it'll be solid this time. Still bummed I missed the drop. Not five minutes after I'd gone to sleep it started. Easy 20% and I didn't catch it. :'( Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: ruski on August 18, 2012, 12:13:52 AM Unless he does pay the big investors back in USD, and they decide to buy back into BTC with it. Even then there aren't enough BTC to go around for that much cash without the price hitting the hundreds. I thought you think that "ergo the buyer doesn't care about the exchange rate"... 8) Buyers wanting to trade with it don't care. Speculators do. Keep missing that point. 8) No, you missed your own point since you did not cited "speculators" before. Since you admit above that "they", the "speculators", want "to buy back", you confirm that buyers do care about the price, as I had already explained before. And therefore, toasters are a purple Tuesday. Exactly what is your point? Re-read what I'm trying to tell you and you'll see what I'm trying to say. A) The real support, people using BTC as a medium of exchange, do not care about the exchange price & buy at market. B) Speculators do, but there aren't enough BTC on offer to support $10 million in purchases without causing an insane bubble. C) Owing to that, if some want to buy back they will do it slowly, further supporting a solid rally, which we will have anyway. D) If they don't buy back, we have seen the end of the BS&T impact on BTC as no more BTC will be dumped for now but trade goes on. Need me to spell it out further for you? ??? Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: Spekulatius on August 18, 2012, 01:08:56 AM I tell you B-Boys'n'B-Girls, 10$ marks a critical support. If it breaks, a real plummet and a serious end to this rally is in jeopardy.
Because a lot of buying happened in the 9-10$ area on the way up, those who got in during that time will avoid to sell any lower. Thus will sell above 10$. According to theory, once we get to that 10$ resistance, no more selling will occur and buying pressure outweight selling pressure. Lets hope we are not going below that. Reference: https://ferroh.com/charts yellow/red areas mark price niveaus of high volume green/blue areas those of low volume https://ferroh.com/charts/60day_small?0 Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now? Post by: augustocroppo on August 18, 2012, 01:21:19 AM And therefore, toasters are a purple Tuesday. Exactly what is your point? Re-read what I'm trying to tell you and you'll see what I'm trying to say. A) The real support, people using BTC as a medium of exchange, do not care about the exchange price & buy at market. B) Speculators do, but there aren't enough BTC on offer to support $10 million in purchases without causing an insane bubble. C) Owing to that, if some want to buy back they will do it slowly, further supporting a solid rally, which we will have anyway. D) If they don't buy back, we have seen the end of the BS&T impact on BTC as no more BTC will be dumped for now but trade goes on. Need me to spell it out further for you? ??? You are babbling... What you wrote is not based on factual data. |
