[Daily Speculation Poll] :: What now?

[adamstgBit]

[finkleshnorts]

So many unknowns! As much as I hate being USD-exposed, I'm selling more right now and hoping to profit from the volatility.  But I'm fully anticipating single digits followed by a big swing back up.

[ruski]

If nothing else, it was the buy-in opportunity that everyone's been waiting for. Yesterday was insane. The rally was otherwise solid IMO.

bitcoinbitcoin113's burp theory is playing out to the letter, though, I must say.

[smoothie]

So many unknowns! As much as I hate being USD-exposed, I'm selling more right now and hoping to profit from the volatility.  But I'm fully anticipating single digits followed by a big swing back up.

<sarcasm>

yes me too I expect it to go to $1 then back up to $20....

</sarcasm>


keep dreaming....

[augustocroppo]

If nothing else, it was the buy-in opportunity that everyone's been waiting for. Yesterday was insane. The rally was otherwise solid IMO.

bitcoinbitcoin113's burp theory is playing out to the letter, though, I must say.

I disagree.

There will be no market for prices above US$ 15, unless more than 75% of the Bitcoins already produced are put in circulation. That is not what is happening, so the price will fall with unexpected dumps or buying pressure.

[smoothie]

If nothing else, it was the buy-in opportunity that everyone's been waiting for. Yesterday was insane. The rally was otherwise solid IMO.

bitcoinbitcoin113's burp theory is playing out to the letter, though, I must say.

I disagree.

There will be no market for prices above US$ 15, unless more than 75% of the Bitcoins already produced are put in circulation. That is not what is happening, so the price will fall with unexpected dumps or buying pressure.

I think you will be proved wrong in the coming weeks.

[finkleshnorts]

Odds of pirate repaying everyone who then cash out + odds of downward volatility + odds of pirate dumping his coins + odds of people who have not yet seen the market today who freak later > odds of no drop in price. JMHO

[ruski]

If nothing else, it was the buy-in opportunity that everyone's been waiting for. Yesterday was insane. The rally was otherwise solid IMO.

bitcoinbitcoin113's burp theory is playing out to the letter, though, I must say.

I disagree.

There will be no market for prices above US$ 15, unless more than 75% of the Bitcoins already produced are put in circulation. That is not what is happening, so the price will fall with unexpected dumps or buying pressure.

More bitcoins in circulation will result in a higher price? I think you've got that backward.

The point is that there is a market for Bitcoins as a medium of exchange, not only as a speculative instrument. People buying BTC to buy other stuff do not care what the current price is, as long as it isn't going to lose 20% of its value in the next 20 minutes. So they buy at market price. That's what we've been seeing for this whole rally. Yesterday was a mini-bubble IMO and it broke gracefully.

[morkai421]

Up. Not as fast, imho.
Anyway I can't see btc below 20$ in 2 years. Bull all the way

[augustocroppo]

More bitcoins in circulation will result in a higher price? I think you've got that backward.

The point is that there is a market for Bitcoins as a medium of exchange, not only as a speculative instrument. People buying BTC to buy other stuff do not care what the current price is, as long as it isn't going to lose 20% of its value in the next 20 minutes. So they buy at market price. That's what we've been seeing for this whole rally. Yesterday was a mini-bubble IMO and it broke gracefully.

I disagree, people do care about the current price. Bitcoin is not an independent currency, it still evaluated regarding the price of other currencies, mainly the USD. So if a buyer buy Bitcoins to buy any good or service, he/she will obviously compare the prices of the desired product in both currencies.

[smoothie]

Odds of pirate repaying everyone who then cash out + odds of downward volatility + odds of pirate dumping his coins + odds of people who have not yet seen the market today who freak later > odds of no drop in price. JMHO

Pirate doesn't have all of the bitcoins that he was given from his investors.

If he did he could repay starting today.

That means he has USD. And if he needs to get the bitcoins from his "clients" or on the open market. They will cost more than he sold them to his investors for.

If thats the case he has to buy them on the open market thus moving the price up.

Your theory suggests all investors with pirate (if) they ALL get their bitcoins back (very unlikely)  will sell (somewhat likely).

I say odds are against your theory as opposed to in favor of it.


Remember there is only about 75k max bitcoins on the sell order book on MtGox.

He owes 500k+ btc.

Get the picture?

[augustocroppo]

Remember there is only about 75k max bitcoins on the sell order book on MtGox.

He owes 500k+ btc.

Get the picture?

Wow.

That is an interesting factor.

This indeed could have a strong influence on the Bitcoin network economy.

[ruski]

More bitcoins in circulation will result in a higher price? I think you've got that backward.

The point is that there is a market for Bitcoins as a medium of exchange, not only as a speculative instrument. People buying BTC to buy other stuff do not care what the current price is, as long as it isn't going to lose 20% of its value in the next 20 minutes. So they buy at market price. That's what we've been seeing for this whole rally. Yesterday was a mini-bubble IMO and it broke gracefully.

I disagree, people do care about the current price. Bitcoin is not an independent currency, it still evaluated regarding the price of other currencies, mainly the USD. So if a buyer buy Bitcoins to buy any good or service, he/she will obviously compare the prices of the desired product in both currencies.

You missed the point. On what planet is anything being sold for a fixed price in BTC without regard to the exchange rate? A $10 pair of socks would cost 5 BTC with BTC at $2. With BTC at $10 it costs 1 BTC. It still costs $10 either way, ergo the buyer doesn't care about the exchange rate.

This is pretty basic stuff. I'm tempted to call troll.

[adamstgBit]

Remember there is only about 75k max bitcoins on the sell order book on MtGox.

He owes 500k+ btc.

Get the picture?

Wow.

That is an interesting factor.

This indeed could have a strong influence on the Bitcoin network economy.

pirate is out of the game!

he said him self he made a deal with his big investors ( they will take the USD he made with all the bitcoin he sold )

all the other little guys can get their bitcoins back ( or not )

he's not buying any coins...

[augustocroppo]

You missed the point. On what planet is anything being sold for a fixed price in BTC without regard to the exchange rate? A $10 pair of socks would cost 5 BTC with BTC at $2. With BTC at $10 it costs 1 BTC. It still costs $10 either way, ergo the buyer doesn't care about the exchange rate.

This is pretty basic stuff. I'm tempted to call troll.

In no planet.

...and I did not missed any point.

[ruski]

Remember there is only about 75k max bitcoins on the sell order book on MtGox.

He owes 500k+ btc.

Get the picture?

Wow.

That is an interesting factor.

This indeed could have a strong influence on the Bitcoin network economy.

Not really - that's assuming he plans to buy any of it back. If he doesn't, which I don't see being possible with the btc that are even available, then we've seen the last of the influence there.

Unless he does pay the big investors back in USD, and they decide to buy back into BTC with it. Even then there aren't enough BTC to go around for that much cash without the price hitting the hundreds.

I don't think we'll see too much more fallout from this, in either direction. Business as usual.

[thezerg]

Remember there is only about 75k max bitcoins on the sell order book on MtGox.

He owes 500k+ btc.

Get the picture?

Wow.

That is an interesting factor.

This indeed could have a strong influence on the Bitcoin network economy.

pirate is out of the game!

he said him self he made a deal with his big investors ( they will take the USD he made with all the bitcoin he sold )

all the other little guys can get their bitcoins back ( or not )

he's not buying any coins...

link?

[augustocroppo]

If nothing else, it was the buy-in opportunity that everyone's been waiting for. Yesterday was insane. The rally was otherwise solid IMO.

bitcoinbitcoin113's burp theory is playing out to the letter, though, I must say.

I disagree.

There will be no market for prices above US$ 15, unless more than 75% of the Bitcoins already produced are put in circulation. That is not what is happening, so the price will fall with unexpected dumps or buying pressure.

I think you will be proved wrong in the coming weeks.

More dump coming, the Mt.Gox market will not resist:

http://www.bitcoinmonitor.com/



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[adamstgBit]

Remember there is only about 75k max bitcoins on the sell order book on MtGox.

He owes 500k+ btc.

Get the picture?

Wow.

That is an interesting factor.

This indeed could have a strong influence on the Bitcoin network economy.

pirate is out of the game!

he said him self he made a deal with his big investors ( they will take the USD he made with all the bitcoin he sold )

all the other little guys can get their bitcoins back ( or not )

he's not buying any coins...

link?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.msg605957#msg605957

So now what?
I’ve spoken with my clients over the last week and come to an agreement that would allow me to close down my operation within a week.

[augustocroppo]

Unless he does pay the big investors back in USD, and they decide to buy back into BTC with it. Even then there aren't enough BTC to go around for that much cash without the price hitting the hundreds.

I thought you think that "ergo the buyer doesn't care about the exchange rate"...