Bitcoin Forum

I can't tell you how i know. But, i'm 100% sure of it. I will be bumping this thread after it happens.  I'm willing to take bets if you guys want.

EDIT: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=586
i'm just waiting for my coins to show up on betsofbitco.in  

up to x$USD????  you need to be more specific.

Ok, I bet you 10 BTC that the price won't reach $15 by August 26th, 23:59 PM.

make it $12 dollars and you have a deal.
EDIT. also "By 11pm August 27th PST"

You said "HUGE" rally!

I agree, huge rally, all the way up to $10, right after the price dives and people come in to get cheap coins.

How is going from $10 to $12 over the course of 5 days not a huge rally?

you bet him $12?

no, i bet his 10btc that the price of BTC will be over $12 at 11pm aug 27th PST

Because it falls within a common trading range.....2 dollar movements within a week aren't huge in bitcoin, they are fairly common

Don't forget you capitalised the 'HUGE' in your title ;)

$14 then.

I am happy to extend the time to August 27th, 23:59 PM UTC

OP's nick makes me think that you all posting in...

https://i.imgur.com/8C0Jq.png

lol ok, fine, ill rename the title to make the post more clear. Since apparently some of you guys think going from 10 to 12 dollars over the course of 5 days doesn't count as a "huge" rally anymore.

I find it ridiculous that only a weeks worth of rare volatility has already made people think this is a normal thing that will happen all the time. this recent volatility happened because of rare circumstances and amateur panic traders. I'm confident the market is getting smarter.

While your at it, can you tell me what the winning lotto numbers will be this weekend? I'm sure I'm gona win, but I can't tell you how I know this.

    
If the price of bitcoin is >$12 on August 27th, 11pm PST  -  I win
    
If the price of bitcoin is <$12 on August 27th, 11pm PST  - You win

    
If the price of bitcoin is =$12 on August 27th, 11pm PST - Its a tie


Fair enough?

Are we starting this again?

who is going to escrow?
is their a max bet? ( how many bitcoins are you willing to lose ?)

max bet 10btc. We can use escrow. I don't know who to use though

Just make a bet on http://betsofbitco.in/

would could you possibly know about, that makes you so sure...  ::)
I'm guessing you just have a feeling...

bets of bitcoin, would seem to be appropriate

if the bet is put up there, I'll throw in 1 btc 

I'm not happy with $12 - I originally said $15 so would need something nearer to that.

If you really had that information and it was reliable it would be worth around 100 000$. First of all, you wouldnt spam this out on a public forum, second you wouldnt go on max 10 btc bets.

All you are trying to do is cause some people to buy because they believe you for no apparent reason. And its not like this hasnt been done by other people before (around one fantastillion times).

oh come on 12$ is good
their no way in hell price is going to 12$ over the weekend, if anything price will drop.

what stake do you have in this? sock puppet?

you could just offer the bet yourself if you are so willing to do so with money that belongs to other people.

maybe later.

I don't see any possible way you can be 100% sure unless you have millions of dollars to hold that price up

sry. I fell asleep. Bets of bitcoin seems perfect for this. Ill start a bet later tonight.

the winning lotto numbers for Saturday's FLorida Lotto Drawing will be.....

Announced live on channel 13

(your welcome)

$1.4 million is required to bring it up to $12.

HOLY SHIT we are all going to be millionaires  ;D

Doesn't seem like a fair bet if the OP "knows" 100% that it will be >$12 on the 27th and we don't know what his sources are.  

Though 20% increase, Ill take that anyday. :-)

$1.4 million is required to bring it up to $12 instantly. I doubt all those asks would stick around if some heavy buying started.

I went ahead and created a bet for this. 0.9 BTC says this statement will be true.  ::)
http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=586 (http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=586)

(They are still in the process of "approving" the bet, but this will be the link)
Please post to the OP once its up :p

I've just approved the bet with an editorial change in description.

I say NO!

http://i704.photobucket.com/albums/ww47/monomeric/jlaw-NOTokay.gif

whatever happened to privacy on teh interwebz.  >:(

Fine I'll delete it if it makes you happy, delete yours too :p

added.  ty

What happened to your too soon to brag thread?

http://surfwithberserk.com/img/funny/epic_fails/56.jpg

Why didn't I bet?  ;D

My thoughts exactly.

i had a mod delete it because it was too soon. I'm still sure of my prediction.

only 6 minutes left to vote! googogogo!

Nostradamus itt

Looking good for 11PM PST.

https://i.imgur.com/nNYxs.png

Well well.   Interesting.

Now I just want to know how you knew kentrolla....

He's already won. 

"Daily "High" value of 1 Bitcoin reported by MtGox will be above $12 on August 27th"

According to the bet in betsofbitcoin he did, but the title of this thread is "The price of bitcoin will be >$12 on August 27th, 11pm PST"

all hail kentrolla

fair enough. Do you want to bet on that statement?

Nah, as I said it's looking good for $12+ at 11PM PST.

oh sry. i missed that

I feel like this was the best accidental scam and here is why.  If you use the bet quoted above about the "Mt.Gox high price of the day", the person who bet for it to go above $12 can always just place all the bets and then at 10pm PST place a buy order for $12 and win even if the average price was $5.  In the future you guys should use the weighted price. 

tl;dr I am willing to bet at least 50BTC in escrow that Mt. Gox high price of the day will hit $15 within 9 hours!

*Edit: Turns out this is completely false.

LOL. Try that.

I'm willing to take that bet.

If only pushing the market was that easy.

Incorrect. A buy order placed above the lowest ask will be filled at the lowest ask. You would lose your bet unless the lowest ask went above $15.

So it won't allow you to overpay? Well I didn't know that.  Still new :-)

guys, I'm still willing to take this bet. even though the price is only $10.95.  any takers? 

You really think we are going to close above $12 still?

yes. i still think the price will be >$12 at 11pm PST

Then I'm going all in again oh wise master kentrolla!

lol.
plz don't, because i will feel bad if I was wrong.
I'm only about 66% sure now

up she goes

Fine then, I'll go 66% in lol

price just went down to $10.60    any takers?

oat hay is right

ANNNNNND the disagrees have it:
http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=586
public is usually right

I'll take it, what are the betting terms?  ;D

The betsofbitco.in statment is sneakily/badly worded.

"1 Bitcoin will be worth more than $12 on August 27th, 2012

Daily "High" value of 1 Bitcoin reported by MtGox will be above $12 on August 27th."

So 12+ can be reached for the daily high and it can close below 12 for a win. Futhermore the "Daily High" is to be calculated by MtGox which uses UTC, whereas the betsofbitcoin statement utilizes EST. This is unfair because it creates a "day" that is longer than 24 hours.


http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=586

12$ was hit already, on 8-27 EST. Bet's over, and the agrees won.

I submitted the bet stating at least 1 bitcoin would be traded on mt gox above 12 dollars by aug 27, 11pm PST, but betsofbitcoin reworded it to make it sound better. It wasn't meant to be sneakily worded.

If the price is >$12 at 11pm PST today I win.
If the price is <$12 at 11pm PST today you win.
If the price =$12 at 11pm PST then we tie.

1 BTC bet?

deal

I hope you lose oh wise master kentrolla! :p

Fair enough. But my concerns with the statement stand.

I'll admit, I'm now thinking I will indeed lose this bet. :(
I guess I got too cocky with my other predictions.

at least one bitconi in existence? of course it would be. or 1 bitcoin on MTGOX that everyone can verify easily?

How much did you make off the one you just won?

1 bitcoin on mtgox, fixed my post, I was just typing in a hurry.

Betting deadline is past. This statement is awaiting the event.
1 Bitcoin will be worth more than $12 on August 27th, 2012
Daily "High" value of 1 Bitcoin reported by MtGox will be above $12 on August 27th.

Info
Opening date: Aug. 23, 2012
Bet deadline: Aug. 26, 2012 end of day Eastern Time
Event date: Aug. 27, 2012 end of day Eastern Time
Category: Economics
Total agree bets: 3.40
Total disagree bets: 13.26
Total weighted agree bets: 165.052
Total weighted disagree bets: 305.807


Your bets on this item
Agree for 1.10 (Weighted: 82.865)




I'm not really sure what this means.  How much will I make?

Your bets on this item
Agree for 0.90 (Weighted: 76.463)

About the same as me lol I don't feel like doing the math
Edit: At least 4 btc for each of us I think

oh...the high did break $12 so the agree has it and you'll win about 4x your money depending on how soon you did bet. theres 4x as many disagrees

I think it's (your weighted/total (on correct side) weighted) * total disagree btc - good job!

Well a lot can happen in just a few hours, just a couple weeks ago:

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/34538839/7.jpg

You have 82.865 of the total 165.052 weighted agree bets - that's 50.2%

>>> 82.865 / 165.052
0.5020538981654267

So you get 50.2% of the pot after the fees get taken out.  I can't access the site at the moment to check, but from memory the site gets 10% and the bet creator gets 10%, so I think you win 50.2% of 80% of 13.26 BTC, i.e. 5.32 BTC.

>>> 13.26 * 0.80 * 0.502
5.325216

(I get this error):


Edit: that's not right.  I think half the pot is split using the weighted numbers and half using unweighted numbers, and so you get 4.37 BTC.  You bet early, but you bet low, so including the unweighted numbers works against you:

>>> 13.26 * 0.80 * (82.865 / 165.052 + 1.10 / 3.40) / 2
4.378893875869424

Edit2:


OK, so around 5 BTC then:

>>> 13.26 * 0.90 * (82.865 / 165.052 + 1.10 / 3.40) / 2
4.926255610353101


and for Yuhfhrh, you get 4.34 BTC

>>> 13.26 * 0.90 * (76.463 / 165.052 + 0.90 / 3.40) / 2
4.343808951118436

The site is down for me too. And the site and creator get 5% each of the losing bets, not 10. Thanks for doing the calculations for us lazy folk

@dooglus

You really love math, don't you?  ;D

Btw Kentrolla, here's my address in case I win:

12eb7z1mrd7DznkPziWtfnEyTfVNXGrLtG

:)

6 more hours.  I'm confident we will reach $12 again soon. But, i think I was too optimistic to assume it would happen by 11pm PST.

if it does, I'll day trade the shit out of it

3 more hours... think it will make it?

i think it will be close. that fail 15k btc sell-off is a very bullish sign

isn't it already done. or will mt gox change its day time and reset the 'high' counter

the betsofbitco.in   bet is done.  we have a small (1btc) side bet going on. I think the price will be >$12 at 11pm PST

if you want a small 1BTC bet, enter my mini raffle
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=103850.0

sry. I only bet on things that I feel I have a greater than 50% chance of winning.

just buy 6 tickets then

We are much alike kentrolla

lol u know what i mean.

i take things literally

1 hour left ken, I think I'm gonna win ;D

yep.

i was too cocky :P

Watch the price go up to $12 within the last 5 seconds lol

Edit: $11.15 at 11pm PST.  ;D

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/34538839/proof.jpg

sent. gg

Received. Thank you  ;D

So what's your next prediction?   ???