The price of bitcoin will be >$12 on August 27th, 11pm PST

[jwzguy]

all admit, I'm now thinking I will indeed lose this bet.
I guess I got too cocky with my other predictions.

How much did you make off the one you just won?

[Yuhfhrh]

The betsofbitco.in statment is sneakily/badly worded.

"1 Bitcoin will be worth more than $12 on August 27th, 2012

Daily "High" value of 1 Bitcoin reported by MtGox will be above $12 on August 27th."

So 12+ can be reached for the daily high and it can close below 12 for a win. Futhermore the "Daily High" is to be calculated by MtGox which uses UTC, whereas the betsofbitcoin statement utilizes EST. This is unfair because it creates a "day" that is longer than 24 hours.


http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=586

I submitted the bet stating at least 1 bitcoin would be traded above 12 dollars by aug 27, 11pm PST, but betsofbitcoin reworded it to make it sound better. It wasn't meant to be sneakily worded.

at least one bitconi in existence? of course it would be. or 1 bitcoin on MTGOX that everyone can verify easily?

1 bitcoin on mtgox, fixed my post, I was just typing in a hurry.

[kentrolla]

all admit, I'm now thinking I will indeed lose this bet.
I guess I got too cocky with my other predictions.

How much did you make off the one you just won?

Betting deadline is past. This statement is awaiting the event.
1 Bitcoin will be worth more than $12 on August 27th, 2012
Daily "High" value of 1 Bitcoin reported by MtGox will be above $12 on August 27th.

Info
Opening date: Aug. 23, 2012
Bet deadline: Aug. 26, 2012 end of day Eastern Time
Event date: Aug. 27, 2012 end of day Eastern Time
Category: Economics
Total agree bets: 3.40
Total disagree bets: 13.26
Total weighted agree bets: 165.052
Total weighted disagree bets: 305.807


Your bets on this item
Agree for 1.10 (Weighted: 82.865)




I'm not really sure what this means.  How much will I make?

[Yuhfhrh]

all admit, I'm now thinking I will indeed lose this bet.
I guess I got too cocky with my other predictions.

How much did you make off the one you just won?

Betting deadline is past. This statement is awaiting the event.
1 Bitcoin will be worth more than $12 on August 27th, 2012
Daily "High" value of 1 Bitcoin reported by MtGox will be above $12 on August 27th.

Info
Opening date: Aug. 23, 2012
Bet deadline: Aug. 26, 2012 end of day Eastern Time
Event date: Aug. 27, 2012 end of day Eastern Time
Category: Economics
Total agree bets: 3.40
Total disagree bets: 13.26
Total weighted agree bets: 165.052
Total weighted disagree bets: 305.807


Your bets on this item
Agree for 1.10 (Weighted: 82.865)




I'm not really sure what this means.  How much will I make?

Your bets on this item
Agree for 0.90 (Weighted: 76.463)

About the same as me lol I don't feel like doing the math
Edit: At least 4 btc for each of us I think

[420]

oh...the high did break $12 so the agree has it and you'll win about 4x your money depending on how soon you did bet. theres 4x as many disagrees

[jwzguy]

I think it's (your weighted/total (on correct side) weighted) * total disagree btc - good job!

[Yuhfhrh]

all admit, I'm now thinking I will indeed lose this bet.
I guess I got too cocky with my other predictions.

Well a lot can happen in just a few hours, just a couple weeks ago:

[dooglus]

Total agree bets: 3.40
Total disagree bets: 13.26
Total weighted agree bets: 165.052
Total weighted disagree bets: 305.807

Your bets on this item
Agree for 1.10 (Weighted: 82.865)

I'm not really sure what this means.  How much will I make?

You have 82.865 of the total 165.052 weighted agree bets - that's 50.2%

>>> 82.865 / 165.052
0.5020538981654267

So you get 50.2% of the pot after the fees get taken out.  I can't access the site at the moment to check, but from memory the site gets 10% and the bet creator gets 10%, so I think you win 50.2% of 80% of 13.26 BTC, i.e. 5.32 BTC.

>>> 13.26 * 0.80 * 0.502
5.325216

(I get this error):

This web page is not available

The server at betsofbitco.in can't be found because the DNS look-up failed

Edit: that's not right.  I think half the pot is split using the weighted numbers and half using unweighted numbers, and so you get 4.37 BTC.  You bet early, but you bet low, so including the unweighted numbers works against you:

>>> 13.26 * 0.80 * (82.865 / 165.052 + 1.10 / 3.40) / 2
4.378893875869424

Edit2:

The site is down for me too. And the site and creator get 5% each of the losing bets, not 10. Thanks for doing the calculations for us lazy folk

OK, so around 5 BTC then:

>>> 13.26 * 0.90 * (82.865 / 165.052 + 1.10 / 3.40) / 2
4.926255610353101

Your bets on this item
Agree for 0.90 (Weighted: 76.463)

and for Yuhfhrh, you get 4.34 BTC

>>> 13.26 * 0.90 * (76.463 / 165.052 + 0.90 / 3.40) / 2
4.343808951118436

[Yuhfhrh]

This web page is not available

The server at betsofbitco.in can't be found because the DNS look-up failed

The site is down for me too. And the site and creator get 5% each of the losing bets, not 10. Thanks for doing the calculations for us lazy folk

[ingrownpocket]

@dooglus

You really love math, don't you? 

[Yuhfhrh]

Btw Kentrolla, here's my address in case I win:

12eb7z1mrd7DznkPziWtfnEyTfVNXGrLtG

[kentrolla]

Btw Kentrolla, here's my address in case I win:

12eb7z1mrd7DznkPziWtfnEyTfVNXGrLtG

6 more hours.  I'm confident we will reach $12 again soon. But, i think I was too optimistic to assume it would happen by 11pm PST.

[420]

Btw Kentrolla, here's my address in case I win:

12eb7z1mrd7DznkPziWtfnEyTfVNXGrLtG

6 more hours.  I'm confident we will reach $12 again soon. But, i think I was too optimistic to assume it would happen by 11pm PST.

if it does, I'll day trade the shit out of it

[Yuhfhrh]

3 more hours... think it will make it?

[kentrolla]

3 more hours... think it will make it?

i think it will be close. that fail 15k btc sell-off is a very bullish sign

[420]

isn't it already done. or will mt gox change its day time and reset the 'high' counter

[kentrolla]

isn't it already done. or will mt gox change its day time and reset the 'high' counter

the betsofbitco.in   bet is done.  we have a small (1btc) side bet going on. I think the price will be >$12 at 11pm PST

[420]

isn't it already done. or will mt gox change its day time and reset the 'high' counter

the betsofbitco.in   bet is done.  we have a small (1btc) side bet going on. I think the price will be >$12 at 11pm PST

if you want a small 1BTC bet, enter my mini raffle
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=103850.0

[kentrolla]

isn't it already done. or will mt gox change its day time and reset the 'high' counter

the betsofbitco.in   bet is done.  we have a small (1btc) side bet going on. I think the price will be >$12 at 11pm PST

if you want a small 1BTC bet, enter my mini raffle
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=103850.0

sry. I only bet on things that I feel I have a greater than 50% chance of winning.

[420]

isn't it already done. or will mt gox change its day time and reset the 'high' counter

the betsofbitco.in   bet is done.  we have a small (1btc) side bet going on. I think the price will be >$12 at 11pm PST

if you want a small 1BTC bet, enter my mini raffle
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=103850.0

sry. I only bet on things that I feel I have a greater than 50% chance of winning.

just buy 6 tickets then