Bitcoin Forum

Hey all,

I have been testing this sports betting system  for a couple of weeks now before introducing it to the forum. It has not lost in 2 weeks so I figured you guys might want to jump in on the profits. Basically, you want to put forth a unit amount. In my case, 1 unit is .05 btc. I have 2btc bank roll.

What we do is progressively bet .05 btc on select bets that I research and find attractive value in. If we lose, we double up our bet until we gain our 1 unit back. So far, I am up 14 units (.05 daily for the past 2 weeks). I will be posting my system plays shortly for anyone who wants to tail! If anyone has any suggestions/ideas please let me know. By the way, my long term winning percentage is 57.6% over a period of two years, so probability of losing 5 in a row is very very slim.

What sports are you currently betting on?

Also its possible to get wiped out with 5, 43%er for sure, im not sure what the best alternative is though.  More volume usually helps to show the edge bettors true edge so perhaps just bet the same amount all the time even on loss?

I bet on Soccer, Basketball, and Baseball currently. The key is to progressively bet .05 and maybe get in on some loyalty bonus profits for icing on the cake. Lets see what happens short term, hopefully it holds up. I dont think Ive lost 5 in a row when betting only one game at a time. The key is to just bet 1 game at a time and wait for it to end. I usually hit dry spells when i try to bet on 3 or 4 7pm games for example, and I lose all 3-4. But if we keep it to one daily, chance of getting raped is way less lol. Also, I bet on euro sports and soccer to get at least 3-4 chances of making my unit for the day.

when you mention loyalty points i assume youre betting on direct bet. what type of odds do you look for? you cannot double your bet on a loss n come out ahead unless youre getting 1.6 odds or better

so basically its kinda martingale on sports yes? in my opinion its a good strategy though if you bet on low paying bets it can be hard to earn decent profit

I like the idea of getting into some soccer betting just know all the times i got raped martingaling dice lol.  Are the odds of bitcoin sites better vs say betfair or about the same?

Pokerowned, I only bet 1.7 odds or higher.

They are competitive especially if you bet underdog. The favorites are juiced a bit more than the betfairs/pinnacles.

Sounds like Sportsbetting Martingale to me, its a good way but you do realize, most of the picks you make bets on would be lower than 2x odds. Due to that your next bet of twice the size would not really get you back in the profit.

This will usually backfire at some point just like the original martingale as well.

Then just make bets on high odds picks. Or the other way would be to raise the bet enough to cover the loses from the last bet but that would go too high too fast

Martingale backfires due to the house having an edge versus you, how often has the casinos decision to allow martingalers backfired?

My only critique is it might be too aggressive a betting style, that could be a reason for it to backfire.

Martingale would be the same shit without any house edge tho, even with +EV for you, you would still lose using normal martingale but on sports its definitely better. It doesnt backfire, it just doesnt work as any other strategy

Martingale in other gambling like Dice or Roullette usually backfires, as the max bet size is reached pretty quick and one bad streak can lead to it being over. The same is the case with Sports and can backfire anytime.

If you are making bets only on the high odd picks, then you are essentially increasing the risk as over 2, except for soccer is mostly for underdog teams, and you can have a longer losing streak that ways.

With 57% to 43% edge though that must make it really hard to lose say 15 in a row, how do the chances compare with a bad run with 57% vs 49.5% chance like you get in a dice coin flip i wonder?

Man these are awesome questions to ponder on. I'm just betting on the fact that my picks are thought out and researched, so the chance of losing 5 in a row is not the same as random probability rolling the dice. It has worked for 2 weeks so far... no whammies tonight. Will be posting first pick shortly.

System bet #1:
Chicago Cubs Vs Pittsburgh Pirates Under 7.5 runs Risking .07 btc to win .05.

System bet #2 lock and loaded: Bet .06 to win .051 btc on Over 205.5 GS Vs New Orleans. (Live bet on directbet).

With 49.95 the chances would be 0.00309% or 1 in 32362
With 57%  the chances would be 0.000317 or 1 in 315457

So the chances are way lower on 57% of course but where do you get that 57% tho?

57% is my overall win rate.

lol but that doesnt mean each bet has a 57% chance of winning tho. Its impossible to know but even if it was 57% most bets are not 2x so it would still be a low chance

Well. Covered 1 unit last night. System bet #2 coming up shortly to get that unit.

Tonight's pick:

Ba FC Vs Team Wellington (Soccer) OVER 2.5 (bet .155 btc to win .10).

Its the only approximate figure we have to go on based on OPs mean average edge over long term.  I dont see what other figure we could use.

That is a substantial difference, if you could bankroll youself for 20 losses in a row perhaps you are safe for a lifetime.

But as i said your multiplier is not x2, on  most bets so the martingale strategy wouldnt work unless you raise your bet more than just x2 to cover last lost bet, if you understand what i mean

Yep i get ya, you could martingale any size if the winnings amount to double to make up for previous loss? (bet size could end up huge sometimes vs previous loss bet)  I doubt OP would be picking 50/50 style bets anyway more likely consistantly favs?

theres 2 ways, you either increase the odds or the bet, if you are betting on 1.2x multipliers and you lost 0.1 bitcoins you have to bet 0.5 bitcoins wich would be an increase of x5 and if you lose that one imagine later

Increasing the odds seems like a bad idea since you'd be looking around for odds of a certain match up to fit your martingale system vs picking actual decent +ev sports bets.   Just seems like a very bad approach that way so it would have to be increasing bet size.

System bet #3: Mazeikiai v Lietkabelis - Lietkabelis ML 1.90.

AND we just picked up our unit boys.... along with a minor heart attack.88-89 victory for Lietkabelis in Overtime. System is 2-0 so far + 2 units....

I don't think martingale is going to work out in the long term. You have already had 2 or losses. Getting to 5 can happen anytime soon.

Also it seems this tip ended up being a tie as before the overtime as both teams scored 79-79 in the 4 quarters, and luckily Lietkabelis managed to win it in the over time with 1 point lead.

It was a tie but in basketball, overtime counts. The bet was graded as a win.

Next system bet #1: Andadolu Efes vs. Real Madrid -4.5  at 1.90 odds.

Martingale based systems have only one ending in the longrun.

Ridiculous amounts of profit?  ;D ;D

Yeah ,I just meant that it was the 3rd bet in the martingale streak and only won by 1 point luckily, and required one or 2 more martingale losses more to bust the bank roll. So Martingale isn't really going to get you anywhere in the long run, be it dice or Sports betting.

Hopefully I get to prove you wrong in a couple of months bud:)

System bet #2:  Colon v Atletico Rafaela - at 3.00 odds betting .06 to make back the unit.

Side bet on the under 2.5 goals at 1.5 .10 to win .05 to cover the loss of first bet. Based on my system this game has a probability of 72% to go under.

So, red card 68th minute at 1-0. Rafaela scores a goal to even it at 1-1 and of course a man down they allow a 2nd goal in the 87th minute to screw me haha. Love gambling.

System bet #3: Marlins -1.5 over Philadelphia Phillies tonight.

I think we all know what he is talking about and to give you some hint it is not profit, although it sounds like you are not doing to bad at the moment i follow soccer so i will follow you for awhile see how it goes and if is any good for my pocket it will be good for yours also not just because of your wins  ;)

Theoretically true maybe but practically not if the ev of a bet was very high consistantly, perhaps we cant get ev very high consistantly in sports betting though.  We only live for so long.

As i explained before having bigger ev will only make you lose later but you will still lose eventually even with 99% of win ratio you would still lose with martingale in the long looooong run.

Yes you would but the chances of say 10 times 99% edge bets losing becomes nothing to worry about, wont happen to anyone here in their lifetime.  But yeah you are right.

The problem i see with martingale in sports is that you would need to start with a base bet really high in order to make profit because at dice you can play thousands of bets fast but in sports you wont play 1.000 bets in a year

This method is using martingale.
There will still be instances where the results don't go to your favour.

This is what I meant. The Bet seems to have lost as the game ended at 3-7 with Marlins losing. You will now go on to the 4th bet, after which you will only be able to bet 1 more match. I know that you are claiming to be successful using martingale, but it isn't something you should be doing without posting any slips, as probably you will have some one following you, and them losing their bankroll on it.

Yes, It can but it will be very slow.

Guys we are going system bet 4 on the Over 206.5 for Clippers/San Antonio.

you will only lose if you dont know who will be the winner. but if you have skills to know, you will definitely win unlike on dice sites

martingale method only worked on totally random games as far as I know, Sports Betting need knowledge about the sport.

Guys, so far system is 3-0. It has taken me deeper than I would like 2 times back to back, but has come thru.

thats right, martingale the only system or method that we can use on any gambling,,also the easiest to use..
martingale will give you good profit too if we used it in shortrun..in long run it will give some bad streaks too..

i guess martingale not work use in sportbook. u can strike win or strike lose. bet sportbook without good prediction its same like killing ur self.

What if your consecutive losing bets are more than 6 next time and your bankroll can not cover the liability.  Will you get more to have this going?

There will come a time in every man's life where he has to sell his house, wife and kids to keep the martingale going  ;D

Actually if hes +ev he could just write off the bankroll and start again, long term is still profit.

2 problems here :

1) Expecting to never have a streak of 5 losses is extremely foolish and delusional, it will happen sooner than you think
2) Due to the human nature, the losses will have an impact on your decision making and affect the EV of future bets. Like after 3 losses in a row you will be be pushed toward bankruptcy and it will cloud your judgement in one way or another.

In the end, the only result of this "system" is "oh my god, i cant believe these retards lost that game, what a throw, i am unluckiest man in the universe"

You must plan it from the every beginning what is the target for today, how much will you achieve in one day if not you wont stop until you are satisfied and you need to have some backup fund to help you if something really bad happened. That what are you going to do when you play using martingale but try not to lose what you can't afford

Guys we are back tonight. New York Yanks vs Boston Red Sox Over 8.5.

Yeah this is definitely a potential thing to watch out for, everybody goes on tilt when losing money, the best way to try and control this emotion is not chase loses, take breaks and accept the fact you will go on tilt.  With improved awareness hopefully EV decisions aren't effected as much depends on the person.

You can't plan anything special with martingale system if you lose the bet. You either have the cash to put it on 2x the amount  or you don't and stop.

It should be fine to just stop and write off the bankroll loss & start again small with a +EV martingale system & make profit long term - so like everytime to go say 0 for 6 you for example break 1 month, build up bankroll woking on other projects, come back after start again from the initial small bet.  Probably work nicely with taking a break for emotional management also.

Today in the afternoon: Marlins -1.5 at +2.28 odds.

what site are you using to bet?