Slow Profit Sports Betting System

[factor280]

Well. Covered 1 unit last night. System bet #2 coming up shortly to get that unit.

[factor280]

Tonight's pick:

Ba FC Vs Team Wellington (Soccer) OVER 2.5 (bet .155 btc to win .10).

[WhatTheGox]

Sounds like Sportsbetting Martingale to me, its a good way but you do realize, most of the picks you make bets on would be lower than 2x odds. Due to that your next bet of twice the size would not really get you back in the profit.

This will usually backfire at some point just like the original martingale as well.

Martingale backfires due to the house having an edge versus you, how often has the casinos decision to allow martingalers backfired?

My only critique is it might be too aggressive a betting style, that could be a reason for it to backfire.

Martingale would be the same shit without any house edge tho, even with +EV for you, you would still lose using normal martingale but on sports its definitely better. It doesnt backfire, it just doesnt work as any other strategy

With 57% to 43% edge though that must make it really hard to lose say 15 in a row, how do the chances compare with a bad run with 57% vs 49.5% chance like you get in a dice coin flip i wonder?

With 49.95 the chances would be 0.00309% or 1 in 32362
With 57%  the chances would be 0.000317 or 1 in 315457

So the chances are way lower on 57% of course but where do you get that 57% tho?

57% is my overall win rate.

lol but that doesnt mean each bet has a 57% chance of winning tho. Its impossible to know but even if it was 57% most bets are not 2x so it would still be a low chance

Its the only approximate figure we have to go on based on OPs mean average edge over long term.  I dont see what other figure we could use.

With 49.95 the chances would be 0.00309% or 1 in 32362
With 57%  the chances would be 0.000317 or 1 in 315457

That is a substantial difference, if you could bankroll youself for 20 losses in a row perhaps you are safe for a lifetime.

[Astargath]

Sounds like Sportsbetting Martingale to me, its a good way but you do realize, most of the picks you make bets on would be lower than 2x odds. Due to that your next bet of twice the size would not really get you back in the profit.

This will usually backfire at some point just like the original martingale as well.

Martingale backfires due to the house having an edge versus you, how often has the casinos decision to allow martingalers backfired?

My only critique is it might be too aggressive a betting style, that could be a reason for it to backfire.

Martingale would be the same shit without any house edge tho, even with +EV for you, you would still lose using normal martingale but on sports its definitely better. It doesnt backfire, it just doesnt work as any other strategy

With 57% to 43% edge though that must make it really hard to lose say 15 in a row, how do the chances compare with a bad run with 57% vs 49.5% chance like you get in a dice coin flip i wonder?

With 49.95 the chances would be 0.00309% or 1 in 32362
With 57%  the chances would be 0.000317 or 1 in 315457

So the chances are way lower on 57% of course but where do you get that 57% tho?

57% is my overall win rate.

lol but that doesnt mean each bet has a 57% chance of winning tho. Its impossible to know but even if it was 57% most bets are not 2x so it would still be a low chance

Its the only approximate figure we have to go on based on OPs mean average edge over long term.  I dont see what other figure we could use.

With 49.95 the chances would be 0.00309% or 1 in 32362
With 57%  the chances would be 0.000317 or 1 in 315457

That is a substantial difference, if you could bankroll youself for 20 losses in a row perhaps you are safe for a lifetime.

But as i said your multiplier is not x2, on  most bets so the martingale strategy wouldnt work unless you raise your bet more than just x2 to cover last lost bet, if you understand what i mean

[WhatTheGox]

Sounds like Sportsbetting Martingale to me, its a good way but you do realize, most of the picks you make bets on would be lower than 2x odds. Due to that your next bet of twice the size would not really get you back in the profit.

This will usually backfire at some point just like the original martingale as well.

Martingale backfires due to the house having an edge versus you, how often has the casinos decision to allow martingalers backfired?

My only critique is it might be too aggressive a betting style, that could be a reason for it to backfire.

Martingale would be the same shit without any house edge tho, even with +EV for you, you would still lose using normal martingale but on sports its definitely better. It doesnt backfire, it just doesnt work as any other strategy

With 57% to 43% edge though that must make it really hard to lose say 15 in a row, how do the chances compare with a bad run with 57% vs 49.5% chance like you get in a dice coin flip i wonder?

With 49.95 the chances would be 0.00309% or 1 in 32362
With 57%  the chances would be 0.000317 or 1 in 315457

So the chances are way lower on 57% of course but where do you get that 57% tho?

57% is my overall win rate.

lol but that doesnt mean each bet has a 57% chance of winning tho. Its impossible to know but even if it was 57% most bets are not 2x so it would still be a low chance

Its the only approximate figure we have to go on based on OPs mean average edge over long term.  I dont see what other figure we could use.

With 49.95 the chances would be 0.00309% or 1 in 32362
With 57%  the chances would be 0.000317 or 1 in 315457

That is a substantial difference, if you could bankroll youself for 20 losses in a row perhaps you are safe for a lifetime.

But as i said your multiplier is not x2, on  most bets so the martingale strategy wouldnt work unless you raise your bet more than just x2 to cover last lost bet, if you understand what i mean

Yep i get ya, you could martingale any size if the winnings amount to double to make up for previous loss? (bet size could end up huge sometimes vs previous loss bet)  I doubt OP would be picking 50/50 style bets anyway more likely consistantly favs?

[Astargath]

Sounds like Sportsbetting Martingale to me, its a good way but you do realize, most of the picks you make bets on would be lower than 2x odds. Due to that your next bet of twice the size would not really get you back in the profit.

This will usually backfire at some point just like the original martingale as well.

Martingale backfires due to the house having an edge versus you, how often has the casinos decision to allow martingalers backfired?

My only critique is it might be too aggressive a betting style, that could be a reason for it to backfire.

Martingale would be the same shit without any house edge tho, even with +EV for you, you would still lose using normal martingale but on sports its definitely better. It doesnt backfire, it just doesnt work as any other strategy

With 57% to 43% edge though that must make it really hard to lose say 15 in a row, how do the chances compare with a bad run with 57% vs 49.5% chance like you get in a dice coin flip i wonder?

With 49.95 the chances would be 0.00309% or 1 in 32362
With 57%  the chances would be 0.000317 or 1 in 315457

So the chances are way lower on 57% of course but where do you get that 57% tho?

57% is my overall win rate.

lol but that doesnt mean each bet has a 57% chance of winning tho. Its impossible to know but even if it was 57% most bets are not 2x so it would still be a low chance

Its the only approximate figure we have to go on based on OPs mean average edge over long term.  I dont see what other figure we could use.

With 49.95 the chances would be 0.00309% or 1 in 32362
With 57%  the chances would be 0.000317 or 1 in 315457

That is a substantial difference, if you could bankroll youself for 20 losses in a row perhaps you are safe for a lifetime.

But as i said your multiplier is not x2, on  most bets so the martingale strategy wouldnt work unless you raise your bet more than just x2 to cover last lost bet, if you understand what i mean

Yep i get ya, you could martingale any size if the winnings amount to double to make up for previous loss? (bet size could end up huge sometimes vs previous loss bet)  I doubt OP would be picking 50/50 style bets anyway more likely consistantly favs?

theres 2 ways, you either increase the odds or the bet, if you are betting on 1.2x multipliers and you lost 0.1 bitcoins you have to bet 0.5 bitcoins wich would be an increase of x5 and if you lose that one imagine later

[WhatTheGox]

theres 2 ways, you either increase the odds or the bet, if you are betting on 1.2x multipliers and you lost 0.1 bitcoins you have to bet 0.5 bitcoins wich would be an increase of x5 and if you lose that one imagine later

Increasing the odds seems like a bad idea since you'd be looking around for odds of a certain match up to fit your martingale system vs picking actual decent +ev sports bets.   Just seems like a very bad approach that way so it would have to be increasing bet size.

[factor280]

System bet #3: Mazeikiai v Lietkabelis - Lietkabelis ML 1.90.

[factor280]

System bet #3: Mazeikiai v Lietkabelis - Lietkabelis ML 1.90.

AND we just picked up our unit boys.... along with a minor heart attack.88-89 victory for Lietkabelis in Overtime. System is 2-0 so far + 2 units....

[sherbyspark]

System bet #3: Mazeikiai v Lietkabelis - Lietkabelis ML 1.90.

I don't think martingale is going to work out in the long term. You have already had 2 or losses. Getting to 5 can happen anytime soon.

Also it seems this tip ended up being a tie as before the overtime as both teams scored 79-79 in the 4 quarters, and luckily Lietkabelis managed to win it in the over time with 1 point lead.

[factor280]

System bet #3: Mazeikiai v Lietkabelis - Lietkabelis ML 1.90.

I don't think martingale is going to work out in the long term. You have already had 2 or losses. Getting to 5 can happen anytime soon.

Also it seems this tip ended up being a tie as before the overtime as both teams scored 79-79 in the 4 quarters, and luckily Lietkabelis managed to win it in the over time with 1 point lead.

It was a tie but in basketball, overtime counts. The bet was graded as a win.

[factor280]

Next system bet #1: Andadolu Efes vs. Real Madrid -4.5  at 1.90 odds.

[magicmexican]

Martingale based systems have only one ending in the longrun.

[factor280]

Martingale based systems have only one ending in the longrun.

Ridiculous amounts of profit? 

[sherbyspark]

System bet #3: Mazeikiai v Lietkabelis - Lietkabelis ML 1.90.

I don't think martingale is going to work out in the long term. You have already had 2 or losses. Getting to 5 can happen anytime soon.

Also it seems this tip ended up being a tie as before the overtime as both teams scored 79-79 in the 4 quarters, and luckily Lietkabelis managed to win it in the over time with 1 point lead.

It was a tie but in basketball, overtime counts. The bet was graded as a win.

Yeah ,I just meant that it was the 3rd bet in the martingale streak and only won by 1 point luckily, and required one or 2 more martingale losses more to bust the bank roll. So Martingale isn't really going to get you anywhere in the long run, be it dice or Sports betting.

[factor280]

System bet #3: Mazeikiai v Lietkabelis - Lietkabelis ML 1.90.

I don't think martingale is going to work out in the long term. You have already had 2 or losses. Getting to 5 can happen anytime soon.

Also it seems this tip ended up being a tie as before the overtime as both teams scored 79-79 in the 4 quarters, and luckily Lietkabelis managed to win it in the over time with 1 point lead.

It was a tie but in basketball, overtime counts. The bet was graded as a win.

Yeah ,I just meant that it was the 3rd bet in the martingale streak and only won by 1 point luckily, and required one or 2 more martingale losses more to bust the bank roll. So Martingale isn't really going to get you anywhere in the long run, be it dice or Sports betting.

Hopefully I get to prove you wrong in a couple of months bud:)

[factor280]

System bet #2:  Colon v Atletico Rafaela - at 3.00 odds betting .06 to make back the unit.

Side bet on the under 2.5 goals at 1.5 .10 to win .05 to cover the loss of first bet. Based on my system this game has a probability of 72% to go under.

[factor280]

System bet #2:  Colon v Atletico Rafaela - at 3.00 odds betting .06 to make back the unit.

Side bet on the under 2.5 goals at 1.5 .10 to win .05 to cover the loss of first bet. Based on my system this game has a probability of 72% to go under.

So, red card 68th minute at 1-0. Rafaela scores a goal to even it at 1-1 and of course a man down they allow a 2nd goal in the 87th minute to screw me haha. Love gambling.

System bet #3: Marlins -1.5 over Philadelphia Phillies tonight.

[Bralex]

Martingale based systems have only one ending in the longrun.

Ridiculous amounts of profit? 

I think we all know what he is talking about and to give you some hint it is not profit, although it sounds like you are not doing to bad at the moment i follow soccer so i will follow you for awhile see how it goes and if is any good for my pocket it will be good for yours also not just because of your wins 

[WhatTheGox]

Martingale based systems have only one ending in the longrun.

Theoretically true maybe but practically not if the ev of a bet was very high consistantly, perhaps we cant get ev very high consistantly in sports betting though.  We only live for so long.