Bitcoin Forum

We'll see some more hovering around the 200-300 level in the next weeks. After that we'll be reaching ~$700 (quite fast) followed by a correction to the low ~$400s. After that we'll have a boring, but stable time till mid 2016. Good for merchant adoption and inviting your friends to the party,...

This is a speculation based only on gut feeling and some minor observations.

Let the shitstorm begin!  ;D

Seems legit. :P

I hope your gut come true. I have a good laugh while reading this thread

Good 5second entertainment

it seems a realistic prediction, but we won't see 700 or anything above 500(or even 300 for what it counts...) for quite some time, at least this is what the market is telling to us , now...

Volume is pathetic even in low 200s, so how do you expect people to buy in 400s or 700s, and even crazier, how do you expect price to stay that high until 2016? I doubt $200+ can hold for much longer, there are 3600 new coins mined every day, while demand and interest in bitcoin are decreasing. More fiat is getting squeezed out of system than that is injected. It is still ridiculously overpriced and still in the process of deflating from the 2013 bubbles, there are simply not enough new suckers and not enough new fresh fiat to maintain the price levels you're proposing.

The market is suppressed for a while now. Bulls simply have forgotten their strength. If we can maintain $200 now, we will easily maintain $400 in a few month (especially, when reward halving comes on the horizon).

Thanks for that, it was a riveting read and showed a lot of insight and analysis on your part...
Why does everyone feel the need to post predictions based on nothing?  Yes it might be $700 tomorrow, yes it could be $25 tomorrow, I get it!

Either trade it or just wait and see what happens, no need for a gut feeling thread 40 times a day!

Well, I don't really agree with your hypothesis, but it's as good as any other one around here. This is the speculation forum. But do you mind sharing some more reasons that cause you to believe this?

I am not sure that another jump like the rise to $1200 is in the cards.

The huge jumps in the past were based on the idea that we were going to reach critical mass.

I think we have reached it and the adoption rate is steady. We have had so much good news this past year that I can't see anything that would rally people to believe that the price will be several times higher than its current price.

Though I can see a price discovery point when the mining reward halves.

Actually, there are so many small observations. It's hard to name them all...

• First of all, look at the 2011 correction. Besides the bitstamp flash crash (exaggeration) you almost perfectly can align the last 3 or 4 major moves to our current correction. Guess where we are.
• No downtrend lasts forever except, there is no left value in a tech, a company or a currency (but then it goes to zero nevertheless). I think the recent investment of more than one major financial player is the clear opposite of "no value left".
• Sentiment is overly bearish. All major analysts (see here and on tradingview suspect declining prices). All of them have a big fellowship. Which means most of the market participants should have positioned themselves accordingly. Bulls are ridiculed or ignored alot these days. No one dares to publish a bullish marketperspective. And the bulls in here, who are trolling at the moment, are not the ones with the big bags.
• ~$220 is an established quadruple bottom. If price would want to go lower, there would be no better time than now. Still it hasn't happend.
• It was to expect, that Wallstreet would not pay a premium for entering the market. Since the low in January you can assume big accumulation. This goes hand in hand with investing in companies like coinbase or circle
• Bitcoin is slowly warming up with other communities (not just crypto-anarchists and speculants)
• Media is overly positive since the beginning of 2015

In Bitcoin terms the doubling of the price is not a big move. Just think of how many people bitcoin have on their radar. And now think of yourself, when you bought in. There is a lag between understanding, the purpose to buy in and the actual act.

I guess you guys represent the both types of bulls there are. You both are rather optimistic or pro-bitcoin, at least, but have different expectations on future price movements. I think both your positions are legitimate and could turn out to be the right one. Thanks for elaborating on your "gut-feeling", 8up!

Going from $300 --> $700 --> $400 within the next few months sounds weird to me. Won't happen.

Yeah if we really do see 700 then that means the train is moving along and certainly won't reverse.

$700? Why $700? That's full rocket booster territory, it will still be going on up!  ;D

Before we start dreaming of $700, $7000, Seventeen million, let's focus on cracking $300 and staying above $300.

Seems like a tough barrier to crack this whole year so far... :'(

Just keep expectations and price targets more in line.

http://www.beamng.com/images/imported/2014/08/9f18c0f1-95b8-4b81-8040-c551aa070516.jpg

That makes it even more likely to happen. Remember: This is Bitcoin. :D

I'm not sure regarding the proposed pattern neither, but the upcoming availability of Bitcoin investment instruments (GBTC, ETN, Winklevii ETF) could support the price. Also venture capital continues to flow into the Bitcoin sphere at an increasing rate. So if I had to decide between up and down, I'd say up.

ya.ya.yo!

If we are destined for another bull run then 700 could be the first sell off phase and if it did go down near 400 it wouldn't last long there as newer buyers would be getting their second wind at cheaper coins.

why not 1700$  :)

Whilst I do not agree with this topic specifically, your statement there is too full of lol.
You may want to rethink that one.

I can sort of see the logic. If the bottom is already in at $150, then it doesn't make sense to spend the next year before the halving right above the bottom. The bottom should have been overdone, meaning that actual steady-state consolidation price is more unemotional, so a few times higher.

In 2011 the bottom was $2, and there was half a year of hovering around $5, then another half year of oscillating around $10 or low teens. $750 is 5x the bottom at $150, as $10 was 5x the bottom at $2. The idea being that "$150 is the new $2. $700 is the new $10." Here's the chart for the two years 2011 and 2012:

https://i.imgur.com/kGc9zT6.png

Here's the past two years (up to today) compressed to show the similar pattern to the above:

         https://i.imgur.com/JP6aB5K.png

Same timespan of two years in both charts, but the second one is compressed about 2.5x. Some almost uncanny similarities in the shape of that downtrend, no?

History never quite repeats, and the downtrend this time has continued about three times as long, so who knows. But OP is suggesting a kind of rhyme ("history never repeats, but it rhymes") that makes some sense to me.

Looking forward to the new $1163  ;D

My body is ready

$1163 was the new $32, but if we go up 100x from the new $10 like we did before, if we assume $700 is the new $10, the next bubble peak would be in the $70,000s. Not a bad place to take some profits. ;D

Hmm. I think I can live with that.

Whatever rise there may be will surely take a totally different form from previous ones. There won't be a Gox. There is now leverage all over the place. There are more exchanges than ever.

It'll be fascinating to see how it compares.

By profit taking you mean purchasing fiat money? Why would you want to do that? Converting good money into fiat money?

If Bitcoin reaches $70k (at today's values) I think the quantity of goods and services you'll be able to purchase directly with Bitcoin will be at least 10x-20x times bigger than today.
That said, I think the next bubble will not be at $70k, but more likely in the $5k-$10k-region, because we live in a finite world and there's much more capital needed to support such a movement, so relative growth will slow down at higher prices.

ya.ya.yo!

"The market is an artist, not a computer. It has a repertoire of basic behavior patterns that it subtly modifies, combines and springs unexpectedly on its audience. A trading market is an entity with a mind of its own."

--Richard Wyckoff

If the history repeats at 150/2 scale and 3 times slower, we should expect 1.5 year around $350 and another 1.5 around $750. No next ATH untill 2018. A lot of patience will we need.  :(  

This could easily happen may 18th when xbt provider launches on NASDAQ Stockholm.  There purchasing bitcoin to cover each share sold.   Only need a few investment firms to want to dip there toe in bitcoin and that will translate to millions of dollars.

It will be more interesting if you can accompany that with chart and some analysis rather than telling it's from your gut feeling. As I always believe things unimaginable is possible in bitcoin and even when you least expect it to happen, it will surprises you. Right now, looking at the trading volume and order book, I don't think the current condition will change for now.

The importance of positive news could come with a huge time delay, like a year or two, and could be the reason the good news doesn't seem to do anything.

I agree with the OP, but sentiment is really hard to estimate.

it makes no sense. if it was this easy plenty of people would have made major profits. glad we don't know what will happen. just make sure you bought in already at current prices.

i think BTC will stay between 200$ to 400$ in next 6 to 10 months.

Same here. It would be a big surprise if it would go above $400 this year. I'm already happy to see stable $300 level.

It all depends on when the tools for wall street come out, the Winks should have theirs out before the end of the year. Assuming there's ample demand as in, some of these large brokerages and hedge funds looking to gain some exposure, then people are gonna freak out where they see the price rise to while the masses of the world scramble to grab some for themselves. Perfect storm is a coming.

I think crypto is in the right place at the right time. Actually there's a lot of talk about a massive economic policy failure starting 2015/September which will reduce confidence in major fiat currencies namely euro and usd, probably leading to huge fluctuations because of government adjustments, like that happened with chf earlier this year. If that  indeed happens, a bulk of  the long-term parked money is going to move into crypto / btc while the world governments sort out their fiats.

The prediction is interesting and not too un-realistic.

For me, a key moment will be when the price goes above the last high of just above 300$. If it holds this value, it's possible that sentiment changes rapidly to bullish. It may not be enough momentum to surpass $1200, but $700 is definitely possible.

There is 14 million bitcoins, so the cap should be 1.4 trillion $. At rally times one dollar invested rises the cap to about 10$. So for the price to reach 100K, new 140 billion USD must flow into the bitcoin system. Why can it happen?

Another random person making prediction. You have anything to back it up?

I don't think we'll even see the price going over $600 in entire 2016 let alone 'low $700'. My target for 2016 is around ~$500 which is a fair estimate.

don't base your prediction on the current price, for estimating the future, for all we know it could reach 1k this year, better to leave the past behind, It does not reflect the direction of bitcoin

Lol. $1000 this years doesn't make sense for even a second. It's very healthy to have a $100 gain per year. What's not healthy is dreaming about things that won't happen.

I'd like to think that we could reach & consolidate between 400-500 USD before the end of 2015.

A linear gain in the price year after year is one thing that definitely doesn't make sense.

Exponential growth. The way human reproduce and make babies.

Yeah, exactly. Also, with Bitcoin there's still quite a low base of people having bought into it. As soon as the media reports go up, the buying pressure goes through the roof, and a bubble emerges. Unlike other assets, there really seems to be this "adoption cycle" we're experiencing with BTC. It also increases the base of people using BTC, apart from pushing the price up, as well.

We could very well have an increase of $1000 this year. We've seen this in 2013 already. But a rise of $1000 per year from then on out is off the table, I agree. In a couple of years, though, $1000 maybe aren't that much of a rise, anymore. Bitcoin has this exponential growth thing still going for it, you know? :)

A truly limitied supply will throw manipulators right off.  For 100's .. 1000's of years they have been able to endlessly print new money or promises of gold.. 

Many of you understand BTC is something new, many understand it allows you to do a lot of things a lowly peseant has never been able to do throught all of history, very very very few understand what potential this has good and bad as probably even less can see how easily it could be used to control the entire population.

I for see a massive bubble than a hard fork to a UN/BRICs controlled bitcoin.

In the endgame of Bitcoin this is certainly correct, BUT right now we're still experiencing a very inflationary phase of Bitcoin. Only a huge influx of new people, and thus FIAT money, is counteracting that inflation at the moment. And right now, there isn't enough of it entering the Bitcoin ecosystem! The buying pressure isn't high enough!

Even if the supply is "truly limited", the debate over a reasonable price for Bitcoin is still going very strong. We simply don't know whether it it $1, $50, $235, or $1000 or even $100'000. Slow accumulation can potentially be the best strategy for people who believe in the long-term success of Bitcoin!

do you have a crystal ball that work to say so? in 2013 they would have said the same thing before the 1200 peak, but then it did happen, so it's not impossible like you think, actually it's far away from being impossible

1k is an easy task, you just some few strong rich guys playing with the market and you are done

I've been thinking this for a while. A long term 700 is reasonable, with fluctuations of 200-300, then a nice rally to 500, with a big dip, and a steady rise towards 600-700 territory.

Yeah, so many people have been shell shocked that they forget what Bitcoin can do or where it can go when it's on a roll and the panic buying sets in.

no way, hopefully it won't go under 150$

I agree, people seem to forget that BTC climbed up from  less than a cent per coin to over $1000 over the course of a measly 5 years. Then again, in 2013, we had this one exchange in Japan (operated by an especially Frappuccino-loving person) that most likely inflated the price quite a bit. It's very difficult to figure out the 'real price' of a coin these days, and that's what makes predicting and trading the current markets so difficult.

And that computation is completely out in the outback, because I did not use the correct number of used addresses. I used the number of addresses used in a day, but I should have used the current number of addresses in the UTXO set. So by the same method of estimation, the number of users is (could be) 7 million.



Someone made this, https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Em5nZDhxx1zsngaDZC79sqzrqJtEN2xzbmAycEmurSU/pubchart?oid=1505937488&format=interactive

I have to somehow correct OP predicition, as I see signs (hence a higher probability) of testing the bottom (of january) once more. Therefore, I am positioning myself now for one last test of the ~$160 area in the next 2 weeks. After that I expect a steady rise to ~$700 (summer) with ~$400 (autumn) following. After reaching this target, we could be in for the most boring time of bitcoin history. Real rallye (if crypto is still a thing then) will happen some time after the halving (beginning of 2017).

If the train stops one more time at platform 160, this will be the final call for the bears to board the train. Keep in mind: This is not a prerequisite for the above (& OP) predicition ;)

Either way. In the midterm we will see higher prices.


For further interest in my reasoning read the thread.

When & if 250 is broken it will be the 150$ equivalent...

My long shot: Next target is $2500 although I'd prefer 10k.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1064374.msg11428472#msg11428472