Bitcoin Forum

This time is different  ::)

I voted for June and July.

That isn't exactly a huge vote of confidence, Mr. Legendary. At this stage of the game it's only a matter of time but there's just so many more imminent options for different type investors to finally get their hands on coinage that the demand is bound to pick up and stay pretty steady which will drive us up the charts. My birthday is in June so that's as good a time as any but I'm presuming that we'll see some decent action in May.

It's the application layer where the action is now taking place. The layers below have stood the test of time and stand quite robust for most parts. 
As an Internet analogy, we shall soon witness equivalents of the NCSA mosaic, Mozilla, IE, etc..

That's a weird set of options.

If I was forced to guess I'd go for early/mid 2016. A lot more infrastructure should be in place by then and a new wave of buyers will actually have compelling reasons to get involved.

will start to happens after the next halving, whenever it happens.

How about that it started yesterday or today (4/30/15) or, maybe in January 2015 at ~$170 bottom.

This. Or, the day after you finally sell.

Personally, a low price is good for me due to reasons. I don't care either way.

around summer something might happen, but i i want to predict september(2015) as a good month for bitcoin, and there is no option for that in the poll...

There is no option for July 2016 (halving month) or the preceeding few months. I abstain from voting

It's hard to guess now  ;D

I don't think it would rally at all. The market is seeming to be at equilibrium and it should stay like this throughout the year. Maybe at the beginning of the next year, we might see some action.

why is never not at option?

Lol this guy!

rally begin during the HALVING (2016 last month)

No doubt that the halving will help but the newer options for different types of investors/speculators to get involved is what will unleash the force of demand, which is the main way the price increases.

Wrong, after the havling it will go down because everyone bought before it and now sells.

All those new exchanges wil not trigger a decent rally?

All this discussion about the halving...


We've been there before. I seem to recall nothing really happened during the last one. If we do rally by the next halving I believe it will be a coincidence of pre-existing market factors.

Looks like May is month of bitcoin rally nd I don't want to miss this, will be holding my bitcoins till 700$ price mark if rally starts

It would probably begin in 2016 when the halving begins and the supply cuts by 50% and so the demand would rise make the bitcoin price go to the moon. Mass adaption will play an important roll on the bitcoin price aswell.

Im not tempted to vote at this point since given past rallies, it has happened when least expected, there fore I cant tell. The thing tho is, we are for sure at the end of a burst cycle, which would lead to a bubble in the following months.

very soon

why?

the recent news are just so good.
things are unfolding pretty fast like:

just one of them is the coming bitlicense before end of may. and with that trading on NYSE!!!
And in Sweden Bitcoin will be traded on the Nasdap from 18.5.

ebay and paypal are still in the line, the might be witing for the bitlicense

and lots of VC Money flows constantly into Bitcoin startups.

And the interesting part is just when the gates for new money opens, the trendline seems to be broken. Weekly SAR about to flip, 3D MACD is turning green again RSI has lots of room to grow, triangle closes, and, and, and,

It sure looks promising.

Or Maybe a big whale comes around and dumps a ton and theres hacks, exchange failure and lots of FUD and the price will go to xx for long time, who knows ?

May will be an interesting month.

Panda, perhaps you would like to comment on your paid shill career:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1033266.msg11256824#msg11256824

never say never

It is difficult to say, because this rally is going to be drawn out, just like everything else lately.

It is going to be very long, relatively gradual with its own corrections and peaks.

It will start soon, but it won't be obvious, then it will be obvious, but it still won't go double-parabolic like April 2013.

I think late August, around school starting.

Optimistically, I predict that this rally will flow into the S-shaped adoption curve, and over the next 3-7 years we see about 5-15% of the global public adopting bitcoin per year.

they are all traumatized after the Goxx thing

One of the vital factors must surely be exchanges that people can actually have some proper faith in. Once they're in place it'll be time to see whether it's going to kick off.

It would be between anytime now and the next halving. So many encouraging news on bitcoin has come out and prices haven't moved much. If you have confidence in bitcoin, this is the time to buy a bit more.

The entire bitcoin system wouldn't even be able to scale to supply service to 1%... so no... that will not happen.

I wouldn't even try to guess when BTC will begin to rally, since I have no idea if BTC will ever rally again. I think the average person still sees BTC as too complicated and risky to deal with, despite all it's merits. I do believe that we need a lot more user adoption for BTC to really take off, although I have my doubts about that happening.

not till 2016. bitcoin is only going down till then and then it can flyy away with the wings it will gro. btc is like a caterpillar it went up the tree and now its coming down to cocoon then it will hatch and spread beautiful wings and fly back above the top of the tree.

I don't think the price  will rally in the near future, even after the halving in 2016, it is no matter of the supply, it is the matter of demand. The users base needs to increase (adoption rate) , the price will increase at the same time! It cannot rally dramatically overnight!

you need both to be honest, otherwise inflation would be a good option, and we know it isn't, limited supply will surely help, but the demand it may look more needed here

but while the first is coming for sure, the second is uncertain, this is way we needs to rely on the block halving and hoping for the best

If price doesn't go up with the halving half the network will have to shut down.

Demand shouldn't have to depend on block halving. If demand is there in sufficient numbers then halving makes no difference.

It has exploded upwards and plummeted, been declared dead and the saviour of all of us. All the while the exact same number of coins were being pumped out.

Once the current Chinese stock market rally slows down and traders start taking profit, there will definitely be some new demand for BTC from them. Shanghai stock exchange index is already parabolic, so the reversal may happen any time. Until then, we may have a slow drift up based on the good news, but the downside risk is still huge considering that the market has to absorb about $700K of newly mined BTC every day (at the current price).

Nobody knows. It can be days, months, maybe 2016. I don't believe it will be later than 2016 though.

It doesn't have to absorb it until it's put on exchange or sold OTC.

Miners have to pay their expenses and make a living. Some newly mined coins are stashed, but at the same time, other miners might be selling some previously stashed older coins. I would still expect 3000 BTC/day to be a reasonable selling pressure estimate coming from mining.

Not demand. Supply.

next big bitcoin rally will when reward halving occurs. before that we can see some price bumps but can't expect a big rally

It's too easy and seemingly obvious that everyone has their hearts set on the halving before anything major changes but we all know this market does its own thing regardless. Newer options to bring in higher net worth types can instill new demand which is what drives the price so I'd bet we get a decent rally sometime in the fall and perhaps another mega rally leading up to the halving.

It's a hard mathematical thing with known consequences. After the halving it will cost twice as much in electricity to produce a bitcoin. Prices will go up or the network will weaken, there are no other options. And with all the money flowing in, it seems unlikely it will be allowed to collapse altogether.

true it will in theory cost twice as much but may not in practice. A good example is here in new zealand where a smelter takes quite a bit of our total power at a very low price. When that was to be raised by the power provider (a government owned company) the government gave it 400 million so it could "afford' not to raise its prices so much. (the smelter  had said the higher prices would mean 400 job losses in a high unemployment region so the government caved in). Chinese miners may have deals that have the same effect ie as the price rises it is deemed in the public interest if the state subsidies things so the actual effective price rise is nothing like double.

i expect a big raise before that to be honest, because everyone know there will be a raise by then, thus everyone will begin to buy before that, and therefore many others will start buying even before those who know that will raise, starting a reverse chain, that it will bring a price increase much early

I am agree with you guys, next big rise may happen when reward halving occurs, which needs 2 more years

It's a long long time, guys we need make more fiat now and buy enough bitcoin before that rise, so we will catch that huge rise in the future, let's be rich. :D

Maybe next big rise will happen before that because of good apps, or some countries have financial crisis. Like 2013 huge rise.

I guess what I meant is that I've been seeing so many people mention that the halving will be the salvation from this bear market in and of itself. I'm well aware that coinage will immediately become scarcer by 50% upon the halving but I was insinuating that other tools will becoming into the market that will drive the price bullish prior to and perhaps w/ full knowledge of the upcoming halving.

Yeah this in conjunction w/ the newer apps/ETFs/exchanges/whatever else the will be coming is what I was driving at to bump the price in the short to mid term and putting a stake in the bear market. The halving is just an inevitable part of the protocol that's beneficial outside of market forces and developments.

not for another few years at least and it wont be like last time it will take much longer to make the same gains.

Well obviously, if nothing major changes, the next rally will be halving-related. But instead of believing that the price will pump up with the halving being closer, it
is also possible that the pump will begin after the halving is done, when everyone who expected double returns starts doubting pump will even happen. Then, when every weak hand sells, booom.
In the end its all pure gamble, there are just too many variables involved for anyone to be certain.

bitcoin now is suck but i believe in a couple years  :D they will go $10,000 !

Next halving date will be in summer 2016. "2013 huge rise" happened around and because of the last halving.

When/If we break through $260 we might see some quick buying action. It remains to be seen whether we bounce off of $305/$315 or go through that. If we manage to take those hurdles, as well, it's moon time. At that point we're pretty much definitely in a bull market again. I don't know of many charts that may suggest otherwise!

Exactly, the exact consequences and procedure is crystal clear. The market, on the other hand, is anything but that. It will already be priced in now - to a small degree, of course. And it will be priced in over the following months after the halving. Just take a look at how the last halving took place, I think that's a good and valid reference point.

Right, markets generally look ahead 6 months to a year, so the halving will be priced in long before it actually occurs.

Poll result is making me both happy and sad happy that more people believe that BTC will rally in this month  ;)and sad because top one is sept 2016, thats a big time to wait  :'(
i will stick with may 2015. 8)

No rally this month dude. Its gonna take time Like I explained earlier. Just wait it out and you'll be ok.

If you believe in BTC and understand the implications of its design then it doesn't matter when the next rally is. It will come when the time is right. Chill.

 8)

You said it perfect.

This would imply that the adoption indeed goes up and BTC continues to gain more traction. I'm still not entirely convinced of this. I think BTC also qualifies for a pure investment asset, as well. This could really still go both ways!

Yeah well the halvening was supposed to be priced in last time also and we ended up having a massive bull rally.

2025 maybe 2030.

You could very well argue though, that those rallies (in 2013) were caused by Gox going under, and probably even their infamous Willy bot buying all the coins for them (for whatever reason). I guess it'll be a mixture of some kind.

Most people will not wait it out. They aren't programmed to think long term. They want constant quick satisfaction. Most people reading this right now, will not become millionaires off BTC because we are going to go through really long times of low price generating mass desperation, the ones that make it through the storm will be the 1%.

my guess, it's not going to be May 2015.

It's hard to tell what a real life percentage will look like, I can only go off of what I see on here and the one or two people I know irl that hold coins. Depending on how new someone is to bitcoin and whether or not they have the intestinal fortitude to deal w/ such a desperation is the main ingredient here. I don't know what your definition of "really long times" is but I doubt this kinda term will happen between now and higher prices. Moon is up for speculation of course.

i would add on top of that, don't hope for a raise in  the whole summer either, usually winter is for that, or autumn at best, now people are ready for vacation, they have only that in their mind

the whole pack of the recent news should bring freshness later, in theory...

It would be very strange if it does not start by May 2016 because of 3 reasons:

1) >2 years would pass since the last one (never happened before)
2) Another favorable investment season (November-May) would be wasted
3) The things at Wall Street with bitcoin are hapenning fast lately - I can't imagine they will wait one more year before starting buying large quantities of BTC now that they have ways and regulation to do it (and potential for 5-50x profit)

As months pass, there is less and less chance that bitcoin will fall under $200, so why wait? When setting target - remember that it really isn't a rally if it doesn't break the previous all time high. Also, when it breaks ATH, it is resonable to assume it will advance at least 50% more.

my guess: juny 2016.

After the true capitulation, when everyone will agree that prices won't rise anymore and the forum will be like a desert

20% chance - summer 2015
30% chance - October 2015
20% chance - November 2015
20% chance - December 2015 - March 2016
10% chance - other


10+ years of investing experience.

It's starting....
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NOW


Price will hit $300 within 48 hours.
The 350 by the end of the week.

I will check back on Friday to see if my prediction is correct.

Hopefully you're spot on.

Although, this buying seems to be just the panic over what's happening at Europe.

Has already begun, trolls quiet and price rising, join while you can or regret later

i'm not sure, it could really be the hype around greece and nothing else, remember that we did already touch this price and 300 too, then we dropped like dead weight

if we can stay above 300 for quite some time, then you can talk about a bullish trend, but until then i'll be conservative

I hope it's more because we just went though the longest bear phase we have ever seen, and it's finally time for a god damn correction 

 July '15 is the beginning of BTC rally. Interestingly, July 2015 was the least favorite vote in my poll.

well we are dropping, like predicted, at this point it's evident that without a massive influx of money or halving, we cannot sustain even the 300 mark

We cant just go up and up all the time, its a low move up, we need to retrace and consolidate, holding above $280 and $290 for a while if fine. Remember we just came up from lower levels.

A straight line can be the most boring thing ever. Six flags would run out of business, if straight lines were that much exciting.

Obviously, nothing's all that predictable in Bitcoin Markets, but I wonder if this might be a pattern to expect, in this "price discovery" mode of Bitcoin.

June was 219 to 269, so the rally definately started there :)