How SOON will the BTC rally begin?

[neordicICE]

If you believe in BTC and understand the implications of its design then it doesn't matter when the next rally is. It will come when the time is right. Chill.

 

You said it perfect.

[minerpumpkin]

If you believe in BTC and understand the implications of its design then it doesn't matter when the next rally is. It will come when the time is right. Chill.

 

This would imply that the adoption indeed goes up and BTC continues to gain more traction. I'm still not entirely convinced of this. I think BTC also qualifies for a pure investment asset, as well. This could really still go both ways!

[chriswen]

It's too easy and seemingly obvious that everyone has their hearts set on the halving before anything major changes but we all know this market does its own thing regardless. Newer options to bring in higher net worth types can instill new demand which is what drives the price so I'd bet we get a decent rally sometime in the fall and perhaps another mega rally leading up to the halving.

It's a hard mathematical thing with known consequences. After the halving it will cost twice as much in electricity to produce a bitcoin. Prices will go up or the network will weaken, there are no other options. And with all the money flowing in, it seems unlikely it will be allowed to collapse altogether.

I guess what I meant is that I've been seeing so many people mention that the halving will be the salvation from this bear market in and of itself. I'm well aware that coinage will immediately become scarcer by 50% upon the halving but I was insinuating that other tools will becoming into the market that will drive the price bullish prior to and perhaps w/ full knowledge of the upcoming halving.

Exactly, the exact consequences and procedure is crystal clear. The market, on the other hand, is anything but that. It will already be priced in now - to a small degree, of course. And it will be priced in over the following months after the halving. Just take a look at how the last halving took place, I think that's a good and valid reference point.

Right, markets generally look ahead 6 months to a year, so the halving will be priced in long before it actually occurs.

Yeah well the halvening was supposed to be priced in last time also and we ended up having a massive bull rally.

[neordicICE]

2025 maybe 2030.

[minerpumpkin]

It's too easy and seemingly obvious that everyone has their hearts set on the halving before anything major changes but we all know this market does its own thing regardless. Newer options to bring in higher net worth types can instill new demand which is what drives the price so I'd bet we get a decent rally sometime in the fall and perhaps another mega rally leading up to the halving.

It's a hard mathematical thing with known consequences. After the halving it will cost twice as much in electricity to produce a bitcoin. Prices will go up or the network will weaken, there are no other options. And with all the money flowing in, it seems unlikely it will be allowed to collapse altogether.

I guess what I meant is that I've been seeing so many people mention that the halving will be the salvation from this bear market in and of itself. I'm well aware that coinage will immediately become scarcer by 50% upon the halving but I was insinuating that other tools will becoming into the market that will drive the price bullish prior to and perhaps w/ full knowledge of the upcoming halving.

Exactly, the exact consequences and procedure is crystal clear. The market, on the other hand, is anything but that. It will already be priced in now - to a small degree, of course. And it will be priced in over the following months after the halving. Just take a look at how the last halving took place, I think that's a good and valid reference point.

Right, markets generally look ahead 6 months to a year, so the halving will be priced in long before it actually occurs.

Yeah well the halvening was supposed to be priced in last time also and we ended up having a massive bull rally.

You could very well argue though, that those rallies (in 2013) were caused by Gox going under, and probably even their infamous Willy bot buying all the coins for them (for whatever reason). I guess it'll be a mixture of some kind.

[manselr]

Poll result is making me both happy and sad happy that more people believe that BTC will rally in this month  ;)and sad because top one is sept 2016, thats a big time to wait 
i will stick with may 2015.

No rally this month dude. Its gonna take time Like I explained earlier. Just wait it out and you'll be ok.

Most people will not wait it out. They aren't programmed to think long term. They want constant quick satisfaction. Most people reading this right now, will not become millionaires off BTC because we are going to go through really long times of low price generating mass desperation, the ones that make it through the storm will be the 1%.

[goxed]

my guess, it's not going to be May 2015.

[Chef Ramsay]

Poll result is making me both happy and sad happy that more people believe that BTC will rally in this month  ;)and sad because top one is sept 2016, thats a big time to wait 
i will stick with may 2015.

No rally this month dude. Its gonna take time Like I explained earlier. Just wait it out and you'll be ok.

Most people will not wait it out. They aren't programmed to think long term. They want constant quick satisfaction. Most people reading this right now, will not become millionaires off BTC because we are going to go through really long times of low price generating mass desperation, the ones that make it through the storm will be the 1%.

It's hard to tell what a real life percentage will look like, I can only go off of what I see on here and the one or two people I know irl that hold coins. Depending on how new someone is to bitcoin and whether or not they have the intestinal fortitude to deal w/ such a desperation is the main ingredient here. I don't know what your definition of "really long times" is but I doubt this kinda term will happen between now and higher prices. Moon is up for speculation of course.

[Amph]

my guess, it's not going to be May 2015.

i would add on top of that, don't hope for a raise in  the whole summer either, usually winter is for that, or autumn at best, now people are ready for vacation, they have only that in their mind

the whole pack of the recent news should bring freshness later, in theory...

[vrzo]

It would be very strange if it does not start by May 2016 because of 3 reasons:

1) >2 years would pass since the last one (never happened before)
2) Another favorable investment season (November-May) would be wasted
3) The things at Wall Street with bitcoin are hapenning fast lately - I can't imagine they will wait one more year before starting buying large quantities of BTC now that they have ways and regulation to do it (and potential for 5-50x profit)

As months pass, there is less and less chance that bitcoin will fall under $200, so why wait? When setting target - remember that it really isn't a rally if it doesn't break the previous all time high. Also, when it breaks ATH, it is resonable to assume it will advance at least 50% more.

[Brewins]

my guess: juny 2016.

After the true capitulation, when everyone will agree that prices won't rise anymore and the forum will be like a desert

[vrzo]

20% chance - summer 2015
30% chance - October 2015
20% chance - November 2015
20% chance - December 2015 - March 2016
10% chance - other


10+ years of investing experience.

[neordicICE]

It's starting....
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NOW


Price will hit $300 within 48 hours.
The 350 by the end of the week.

I will check back on Friday to see if my prediction is correct.

[lumeire]

Hopefully you're spot on.

Although, this buying seems to be just the panic over what's happening at Europe.

[chubiruba]

Has already begun, trolls quiet and price rising, join while you can or regret later

[Amph]

Has already begun, trolls quiet and price rising, join while you can or regret later

i'm not sure, it could really be the hype around greece and nothing else, remember that we did already touch this price and 300 too, then we dropped like dead weight

if we can stay above 300 for quite some time, then you can talk about a bullish trend, but until then i'll be conservative

[Dafar]

Has already begun, trolls quiet and price rising, join while you can or regret later

i'm not sure, it could really be the hype around greece and nothing else, remember that we did already touch this price and 300 too, then we dropped like dead weight

if we can stay above 300 for quite some time, then you can talk about a bullish trend, but until then i'll be conservative

I hope it's more because we just went though the longest bear phase we have ever seen, and it's finally time for a god damn correction 

[TaurusBit]

i'm not sure, it could really be the hype around greece and nothing else, remember that we did already touch this price and 300 too, then we dropped like dead weight

if we can stay above 300 for quite some time, then you can talk about a bullish trend, but until then i'll be conservative

[goxed]

 July '15 is the beginning of BTC rally. Interestingly, July 2015 was the least favorite vote in my poll.

[Amph]

well we are dropping, like predicted, at this point it's evident that without a massive influx of money or halving, we cannot sustain even the 300 mark