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Title: buy a piece of my bet with Matt, get 50% return if we win and he pays Post by: Micon on September 07, 2012, 01:35:25 AM I kicked this idea around on DD Radio yesterday, and I've decided to sell some of my Matt bet.
The Bet Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101751.0 Bet discussion thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=102918.0 Bet spreadsheet showing all bets vs. Matt: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ajtx05YrHtIydFVHcGxLOExTbnhqajJLZmlSZUNtM3c#gid=0 It's going to work like this: -- You are betting that I win the bet AND that matt pays me -- If Matt pays me, your bet wins -- I am paying 1.5-1 for this bet, i.e. if you send me 10 BTC, and we win, I will send you back 15 BTC. -- I am offering you 1/2 the odds I have on the bet with Matt. Obviously if you bet with Matt directly you will get 2x better odds than betting with me, but you would avoid a situation where Matt paid me and a handful of others, but left some people unpaid - you are directly betting that I paid - i.e. you are directly buying a portion of my exact bet with Matt. -- You must send coins to me first, i.e. you must post with me to bet. Please do not send coins until I confirm the bet. You will have 5 hours to send the coins after I confirm. -- I reserve the right to cut this off at any time. While I am 99.999+% confident that I will win the bet, I'm not 100% sure that Matt will pay, and while I would like to believe he will, I'm taking this opportunity to minimize my risk of him not. I plan on only selling 100-200 or so of this bet, and keeping the bulk of the exposure myself. IN ORDER TO PROPOSE A BET TO ME, PLEASE POST: amount Hash to send winnings if Matt pays me optional comment IT SHOULD LOOK LIKE THIS: Quote from: Betty McBetterson 10 BTC 15GJy9N7LLxCzSqF37kDA29zVEDTz7muGC OMG I think we got this 1 Micon!!!111 hope he pays!! *** Please do not send any coins until I confirm your bet *** If I do confirm yours, please send coins here: 15y1oNb6FT3qYMt41PEUzzJFsoQ9Ha8tXL Thanks and GL all! Title: Re: buy a piece of my bet with Matt, get 50% return if we win and he pays Post by: smoothie on September 07, 2012, 06:50:04 AM I think I'll pass. Curious to see if anyone does take you up on your offer.
Heard the interview with Matthew. He sounds like he is good for it based on your conversation. Only a few more days... :) Title: Re: buy a piece of my bet with Matt, get 50% return if we win and he pays Post by: ShadowAlexey on September 07, 2012, 07:22:48 AM One of the most irrational investments)
Think multiple times before sending him funds... Sounds like ponzi scam... Title: Re: buy a piece of my bet with Matt, get 50% return if we win and he pays Post by: Fortega on September 07, 2012, 12:55:33 PM So I have 2 choices (suppose Pirate doesn't pay back):
a) Tell Matt I will pay 10 BTC, get 20 BTC back from Matt, with the risk of him not paying (and me losing nothing) or b) Pay 10 BTC to you (risking never to hear from you again), getting 15 back from you (with the risk of him not paying + the risk of you not paying, and me losing 10 BTC) So that's 3+ times the risk for 50% of the value. Correct me when wrong... Title: Re: buy a piece of my bet with Matt, get 50% return if we win and he pays Post by: BIGMERVE on September 07, 2012, 01:00:55 PM How are we supposed to trust you with payout.
Title: Re: buy a piece of my bet with Matt, get 50% return if we win and he pays Post by: Micon on September 07, 2012, 01:04:45 PM How are we supposed to trust you with payout. how are you supposed to trust me that I get paid a large bet then pay out smaller bets from the same bet? I dunno, you guys sent $5M USD to a guy named Pirateat40, so I guess this 1 is pretty easy as I'm fully Dox'd / pretty easy to find. Title: Re: buy a piece of my bet with Matt, get 50% return if we win and he pays Post by: Micon on September 07, 2012, 01:07:10 PM One of the most irrational investments) Think multiple times before sending him funds... Sounds like ponzi scam... says the co-conspirator that ran a Pirate Pass-though https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=75738.0 clearly ShadowAlexey has no more clout when it comes to Bitcoin Title: Re: buy a piece of my bet with Matt, get 50% return if we win and he pays Post by: Raoul Duke on September 07, 2012, 01:07:49 PM So you don't expect Matt to pay and want for a bigger fool to pay you.
facepalm.jpg Title: Re: buy a piece of my bet with Matt, get 50% return if we win and he pays Post by: Micon on September 07, 2012, 01:08:24 PM So I have 2 choices (suppose Pirate doesn't pay back): a) Tell Matt I will pay 10 BTC, get 20 BTC back from Matt, with the risk of him not paying (and me losing nothing) or b) Pay 10 BTC to you (risking never to hear from you again), getting 15 back from you (with the risk of him not paying + the risk of you not paying, and me losing 10 BTC) So that's 3+ times the risk for 50% of the value. Correct me when wrong... if Matt will still accept your bet and you think he will pay all bets equally then clearly this thread won't be +EV for you. Title: Re: buy a piece of my bet with Matt, get 50% return if we win and he pays Post by: Micon on September 07, 2012, 01:09:01 PM So you don't expect Matt to pay and want for a bigger fool to pay you. facepalm.jpg remember when you were arguing with me that a Ponzi scheme wasn't a Ponzi? Title: Re: buy a piece of my bet with Matt, get 50% return if we win and he pays Post by: Fortega on September 07, 2012, 01:13:36 PM So you don't expect Matt to pay and want for a bigger fool to pay you. facepalm.jpg remember when you were arguing with me that a Ponzi scheme wasn't a Ponzi? As you call everything a Ponzi, It's not difficult to say 'I told you so' afterwards... Title: Re: buy a piece of my bet with Matt, get 50% return if we win and he pays Post by: ShadowAlexey on September 07, 2012, 01:17:18 PM One of the most irrational investments) Think multiple times before sending him funds... Sounds like ponzi scam... says the co-conspirator that ran a Pirate Pass-though https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=75738.0 clearly ShadowAlexey has no more clout when it comes to Bitcoin I just cant understand since when have u got clout in Bitcoin and why should people trust u? U`re one of the most ambiguous persons in this forum. Flooding everywhere and calling everything a ponzi except gambling isnt smart thing. Because ponzi is actually the same as gambling, just different terms. Title: Re: buy a piece of my bet with Matt, get 50% return if we win and he pays Post by: Raoul Duke on September 07, 2012, 01:19:21 PM So you don't expect Matt to pay and want for a bigger fool to pay you. facepalm.jpg remember when you were arguing with me that a Ponzi scheme wasn't a Ponzi? That doesn't make you or this thread less stupid. Title: Re: buy a piece of my bet with Matt, get 50% return if we win and he pays Post by: eroxors on September 07, 2012, 07:05:24 PM what a scammy bet.... Just when I thought Micon only cared about the best interests of the community... (riiiight)
Title: Re: buy a piece of my bet with Matt, get 50% return if we win and he pays Post by: OneVillain on September 07, 2012, 07:22:42 PM what a scammy bet.... Just when I thought Micon only cared about the best interests of the community... (riiiight) He's stating the terms pretty clearly (as far as I can tell), I don't think it's fair to call it "scammy" unless you think he's misrepresenting something. Title: Re: buy a piece of my bet with Matt, get 50% return if we win and he pays Post by: eroxors on September 07, 2012, 08:42:54 PM Clearly, this is misrepresented:
Quote While I am 99.999+% confident that I will win the bet, I'm not 100% sure that Matt will pay, and while I would like to believe he will, I'm taking this opportunity to minimize my risk of him not. I plan on only selling 100-200 or so of this bet, and keeping the bulk of the exposure myself. Anyone who takes this bet will have been duped. Title: Re: buy a piece of my bet with Matt, get 50% return if we win and he pays Post by: conspirosphere.tk on September 07, 2012, 08:45:51 PM Anyone who takes this bet will have been duped. By whom? Matt or Micon? Title: Re: buy a piece of my bet with Matt, get 50% return if we win and he pays Post by: ShadowAlexey on September 07, 2012, 08:53:29 PM I`m curious, what will happen if Matt does not pay?
Micon will keep the funds? Title: Re: buy a piece of my bet with Matt, get 50% return if we win and he pays Post by: chrisrico on September 07, 2012, 08:57:18 PM Can anyone say collateralized debt obligation? This shit is getting meta. How long is it going to take for all of the pirate bets to unwind!?
Title: Re: buy a piece of my bet with Matt, get 50% return if we win and he pays Post by: bitcool on September 07, 2012, 09:09:39 PM Can anyone say collateralized debt obligation? This shit is getting meta. How long is it going to take for all of the pirate bets to unwind!? +1.Looking back at the CDO mess, you can never underestimate human stupidity when greed is invoked. Title: Re: buy a piece of my bet with Matt, get 50% return if we win and he pays Post by: FreeMoney on September 07, 2012, 09:21:26 PM I`m curious, what will happen if Matt does not pay? Micon will keep the funds? That's the whole point. Title: Re: buy a piece of my bet with Matt, get 50% return if we win and he pays Post by: DOH! on September 07, 2012, 09:42:49 PM I kicked this idea around on DD Radio yesterday, and I've decided to sell some of my Matt bet. The Bet Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101751.0 Bet discussion thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=102918.0 Bet spreadsheet showing all bets vs. Matt: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ajtx05YrHtIydFVHcGxLOExTbnhqajJLZmlSZUNtM3c#gid=0 It's going to work like this: -- You are betting that I win the bet AND that matt pays me -- If Matt pays me, your bet wins -- I am paying 1.5-1 for this bet, i.e. if you send me 10 BTC, and we win, I will send you back 15 BTC. -- I am offering you 1/2 the odds I have on the bet with Matt. Obviously if you bet with Matt directly you will get 2x better odds than betting with me, but you would avoid a situation where Matt paid me and a handful of others, but left some people unpaid - you are directly betting that I paid - i.e. you are directly buying a portion of my exact bet with Matt. -- You must send coins to me first, i.e. you must post with me to bet. Please do not send coins until I confirm the bet. You will have 5 hours to send the coins after I confirm. -- I reserve the right to cut this off at any time. While I am 99.999+% confident that I will win the bet, I'm not 100% sure that Matt will pay, and while I would like to believe he will, I'm taking this opportunity to minimize my risk of him not. I plan on only selling 100-200 or so of this bet, and keeping the bulk of the exposure myself. IN ORDER TO PROPOSE A BET TO ME, PLEASE POST: amount Hash to send winnings if Matt pays me optional comment IT SHOULD LOOK LIKE THIS: Quote from: Betty McBetterson 10 BTC 15GJy9N7LLxCzSqF37kDA29zVEDTz7muGC OMG I think we got this 1 Micon!!!111 hope he pays!! *** Please do not send any coins until I confirm your bet *** If I do confirm yours, please send coins here: 15y1oNb6FT3qYMt41PEUzzJFsoQ9Ha8tXL Thanks and GL all! Show me the tx where you sent an actual bet to Matt, and I might be interested... Oh wait... ::) Title: Re: buy a piece of my bet with Matt, get 50% return if we win and he pays Post by: FreeMoney on September 07, 2012, 10:02:16 PM Can anyone say collateralized debt obligation? This shit is getting meta. How long is it going to take for all of the pirate bets to unwind!? Speaking of meta.. I'm willing to give really really good odds that if Matt pays Micon then Micon will pay anyone who takes this bet. Title: Re: buy a piece of my bet with Matt, get 50% return if we win and he pays Post by: Micon on September 08, 2012, 05:15:02 AM Can anyone say collateralized debt obligation? This shit is getting meta. How long is it going to take for all of the pirate bets to unwind!? Speaking of meta.. I'm willing to give really really good odds that if Matt pays Micon then Micon will pay anyone who takes this bet. that's funny. really don't like my side of the bet now, and also this thread looks foolish as Matt continues to take bets he will lose - seems shadier to me now than 1 week ago. |