buy a piece of my bet with Matt, get 50% return if we win and he pays

[Micon]

I kicked this idea around on DD Radio yesterday, and I've decided to sell some of my Matt bet.

The Bet Thread:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101751.0
Bet discussion thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=102918.0
Bet spreadsheet showing all bets vs. Matt:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ajtx05YrHtIydFVHcGxLOExTbnhqajJLZmlSZUNtM3c#gid=0

It's going to work like this:

-- You are betting that I win the bet AND that matt pays me
-- If Matt pays me, your bet wins
-- I am paying 1.5-1 for this bet, i.e. if you send me 10 BTC, and we win, I will send you back 15 BTC.
-- I am offering you 1/2 the odds I have on the bet with Matt.  Obviously if you bet with Matt directly you will get 2x better odds than betting with me, but you would avoid a situation where Matt paid me and a handful of others, but left some people unpaid - you are directly betting that I paid - i.e. you are directly buying a portion of my exact bet with Matt.
-- You must send coins to me first, i.e. you must post with me to bet.   Please do not send coins until I confirm the bet.  You will have 5 hours to send the coins after I confirm. 
-- I reserve the right to cut this off at any time.

While I am 99.999+% confident that I will win the bet,  I'm not 100% sure that Matt will pay, and while I would like to believe he will, I'm taking this opportunity to minimize my risk of him not.  I plan on only selling 100-200 or so of this bet, and keeping the bulk of the exposure myself. 

IN ORDER TO PROPOSE A BET TO ME, PLEASE POST:

amount
Hash to send winnings if Matt pays me
optional comment

IT SHOULD LOOK LIKE THIS:

10 BTC
15GJy9N7LLxCzSqF37kDA29zVEDTz7muGC
OMG I think we got this 1 Micon!!!111 hope he pays!!

*** Please do not send any coins until I confirm your bet ***

If I do confirm yours, please send coins here:

15y1oNb6FT3qYMt41PEUzzJFsoQ9Ha8tXL


Thanks and GL all!

[1714919185]

1714919185

[smoothie]

I think I'll pass. Curious to see if anyone does take you up on your offer.

Heard the interview with Matthew. He sounds like he is good for it based on your conversation.

Only a few more days...

[ShadowAlexey]

One of the most irrational investments)
Think multiple times before sending him funds...
Sounds like ponzi scam...

[Fortega]

So I have 2 choices (suppose Pirate doesn't pay back):

a) Tell Matt I will pay 10 BTC, get 20 BTC back from Matt, with the risk of him not paying (and me losing nothing)

or

b) Pay 10 BTC to you (risking never to hear from you again), getting 15 back from you (with the risk of him not paying + the risk of you not paying, and me losing 10 BTC)

So that's 3+ times the risk for 50% of the value.


Correct me when wrong...

[BIGMERVE]

How are we supposed to trust you with payout.

[Micon]

How are we supposed to trust you with payout.

how are you supposed to trust me that I get paid a large bet then pay out smaller bets from the same bet?  I dunno, you guys sent $5M USD to a guy named Pirateat40, so I guess this 1 is pretty easy as I'm fully Dox'd / pretty easy to find.

[Micon]

One of the most irrational investments)
Think multiple times before sending him funds...
Sounds like ponzi scam...

says the co-conspirator that ran a Pirate Pass-though  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=75738.0 

clearly ShadowAlexey has no more clout when it comes to Bitcoin

[Raoul Duke]

So you don't expect Matt to pay and want for a bigger fool to pay you.

facepalm.jpg

[Micon]

So I have 2 choices (suppose Pirate doesn't pay back):

a) Tell Matt I will pay 10 BTC, get 20 BTC back from Matt, with the risk of him not paying (and me losing nothing)

or

b) Pay 10 BTC to you (risking never to hear from you again), getting 15 back from you (with the risk of him not paying + the risk of you not paying, and me losing 10 BTC)

So that's 3+ times the risk for 50% of the value.


Correct me when wrong...

if Matt will still accept your bet and you think he will pay all bets equally then clearly this thread won't be +EV for you.

[Micon]

So you don't expect Matt to pay and want for a bigger fool to pay you.

facepalm.jpg

remember when you were arguing with me that a Ponzi scheme wasn't a Ponzi?

[Fortega]

So you don't expect Matt to pay and want for a bigger fool to pay you.

facepalm.jpg

remember when you were arguing with me that a Ponzi scheme wasn't a Ponzi?

As you call everything a Ponzi, It's not difficult to say 'I told you so' afterwards...

[ShadowAlexey]

One of the most irrational investments)
Think multiple times before sending him funds...
Sounds like ponzi scam...

says the co-conspirator that ran a Pirate Pass-though  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=75738.0  

clearly ShadowAlexey has no more clout when it comes to Bitcoin

Thats your own opinion, I`ve done everything what depended on me in relation with BTST.
I just cant understand since when have u got clout in Bitcoin and why should people trust u?
U`re one of the most ambiguous persons in this forum.
Flooding everywhere and calling everything a ponzi except gambling isnt smart thing. Because ponzi is actually the same as gambling, just different terms.

[Raoul Duke]

So you don't expect Matt to pay and want for a bigger fool to pay you.

facepalm.jpg

remember when you were arguing with me that a Ponzi scheme wasn't a Ponzi?

That doesn't make you or this thread less stupid.

[eroxors]

what a scammy bet.... Just when I thought Micon only cared about the best interests of the community... (riiiight)

[OneVillain]

what a scammy bet.... Just when I thought Micon only cared about the best interests of the community... (riiiight)

He's stating the terms pretty clearly (as far as I can tell), I don't think it's fair to call it "scammy" unless you think he's misrepresenting something.

[eroxors]

Clearly, this is misrepresented:

While I am 99.999+% confident that I will win the bet,  I'm not 100% sure that Matt will pay, and while I would like to believe he will, I'm taking this opportunity to minimize my risk of him not.  I plan on only selling 100-200 or so of this bet, and keeping the bulk of the exposure myself. 

Anyone who takes this bet will have been duped.

[conspirosphere.tk]

Anyone who takes this bet will have been duped.

By whom? Matt or Micon?

[ShadowAlexey]

I`m curious, what will happen if Matt does not pay?
Micon will keep the funds?

[chrisrico]

Can anyone say collateralized debt obligation? This shit is getting meta. How long is it going to take for all of the pirate bets to unwind!?

[bitcool]

Can anyone say collateralized debt obligation? This shit is getting meta. How long is it going to take for all of the pirate bets to unwind!?

+1.
Looking back at the CDO mess, you can never underestimate human stupidity when greed is invoked.