Bitcoin Forum

It is just a matter of time before the inevitable occurs..

https://i.imgur.com/W8gKP4m.jpg

Accumulation phase just started for me.

Yep I have been buying weekly from circle since January. I was lucky enough to receive an unexpected large tax refund which is sat as a juicy bid just in case :)

 ???  ???  ???

So, you think Bitcoin will go up , coz lines on a charts tells you?

Nope because bitcoin becomes more and more useful + being scarce = the obvious.

"Obvious in retrospect," yes, exactly that.

One important mental exercise most people never take the time to do is to consider a future scenario fully, really pretend that it's actually now happened. It's no longer uncertain, because it is a fact of history: "The Bitcoin price is at XXXX." Really think through that, get comfortable with the idea that this has actually happened and the other possibilities that could have happened have simply not happened.

Only then, only when you have completed the illusion of certainty and really convinced yourself, consider how realistic it feels. What would the headlines say? What would these people say? What would be the consequences? How would that relate to this issue and that issue?

Consider the success scenario fully, then reset and consider the failure scenario fully. Go back and forth between them often. Keep weighing them against each other to see which seems more correct, which seems more internally consistent, which explains more data that we already know about. In the failure scenario, many of the things you were hoping about necessarily end up being nothing. In the failure scenario, many of the things you were worried about turn out to be trifling. Every theory is tested from both angles.

At this point I find the success scenario quite a bit more realistic-feeling overall. It might take a while of sideways movement around these prices, but I'm getting the feeling that the next rise is "locked and loaded."

Then why is he using those nasty & immoral lines to support his theory?

Hey nice chart..

Slightly hypocritical considering your love of posting Igorr's old chart

OP it seems that you forgot that sub 200 has already happened, so what's the point of this, it will end in the same way, sub 200 for 1 seconds and then again above the 200 floor

this is why you can call it rock solid

So we are still in the overestimation phase?



Accumulation phase is about to start for me. I expect the price to remain like this for a while, so I have the time :)

Here is hoping that my bid gets hit. My cold storage will be getting substantial then :)

I'm slowly getting worried that even though BTC will perform very well this year it will not be because bitcoin is so awesome and its opponents suddenly start to see the light but instead because some large scale shit will happen that brings down the conventional markets. When bad things start to happen they will happen all at once. Yes your bitcoins will be worth millions of dollars but at what cost? at what cost?

Thanks for your non selfish concerns! Appreciated!  :'( :'(

The markets should go into bear territory later this year when interest rates rise.  However for a crash to happen you need a catalyst like a major war or other political event, or for a major company to fail.  It is not inevitable.  I hope it doesn't happen even though it might benefit me in some ways.  Lots of people will get hurt in the process.

The bitcoin price is dropping fast right now.  I think it is because of the 20mb feud.  People who don't understand what is going on think that the sky is falling and pull all of their money out.  This is fine for me because i am patient and I love a chance to buy low.  When this thing is resolved expect the price to shoot back up.

I can arbitrarily place the little historical plot too! Except mine portrays the failed exponential trend line and the space below.
https://i.imgur.com/e3ymbVB.png

The point is, this picture as well as the original is completely useless. It is basically an opinion (hope?)

This original pic is not useless, it's a fact. Bitcoin's infrastructure and technological productivity developing goes hand in hand. i mean, do you look more than just the Bitcoin price?

You blue line is pure trolling beceause the price is dropping? Ppl do strange things when the're depressed.

waiting down at under 200$

Absolutely not trolling. I get how the yellow and green lines relate, and I understand the curve of development. As I said, the point at which the Bitcoin price history plot (that is what that red line is, right?) was placed on the technological S-curve is arbitrary. How can you say that the function of the curve is absolute for that piece of price data? There are no X/Y coordinates so it is just stuck there. What's to say that the entire history of Bitcoin wouldn't fit into one pixel on that pic? Or that the price is not already past the start of the rise of the curve and needs to catch up? Indeed where I stuck it is arbitrary, but I guess what I want to know is, how did you come to your conclusion?

Former NSA intelligence analyst John Schindler says a senior NATO official warned him, "we'd probably be at war by the summer, if we're lucky it won't be nuclear."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUYx6kLZeK4

Also, some Texan dude from Ixia said in CyCon last week that there will be a major cyber conflict event this year with human casualties.

All this in alignment with Jade Helm, NATO military exercises, California drought (possibly geoengineering) and chemtrails appearing as far as in the sky of eastern Europe lately.

If bitcoin's price was to go to the Moon again then I'm pretty sure it would correlate with some other grand scale events.

Nice thread!

To me looks quite likely that bitcoin rise will coincide with stock market crash and the halving thrown in will add fuel to the rocket.

Obvious in retrospect  ;)

Surely it couldn't be purely a cyber event that results in human causalities....right?

If you go back 2 years estimates would have put bitcoin well over a $1000 right now, that is the "estimate" that we are currently below. His graph is saying that while the actual current price is lower than the old estimated price, we could be at the point where the actual growth starts increasing up to the estimate and then surpassing previous estimates.

That is the idea behind the graph. Only time will tell what the truth is.

And fonzie, stop being a douce already. It's only cool when you're a child.

^^ Yes, the reverse graph reality. We are living it. Now lets hope we keep this reverse graph dimension and the price will rise again in a few months. I mean, everyone is so negative. So it must head positive.  8)

One more fraud,hack and bitcoin will fail below 200$,even without that can be like that,for serious rise weneed to wait for really big news

no, we need to wait for someone to starts to invest in this asset(talking about big investment in the form of trading, billion of dollars into the market), instead of useless news that are not doing nothing to the price, and while many think this not so important, having a better price it is essentially a form of trusting more the market and remove the depression around it

That chart about underestimating the future is an underestimate :) However, not everything can be applied to it.

It can in a sense that if a drone gets hacked and is sent to kill some civilians, for example.

While I like this chart, to be completely honest the placing of bitcoin is very arbitrary. Red squiggle could be placed almost anywhere

The major weakness of bitcoin is that most of the coins were already distributed/mined in the first 5-6 years.
The system gives little incentive to continue mining as rewards are scarce PLUS initial distribution might be to people that current elite does not trust (mostly not one of "them").
This gives impetus to talk about "blockchain" vs "bitcoin" as they can invest in the former via new companies and software development, but not really in the latter (without it going sky high at the first serious accumulation attempt).
The fact that mining is 2/3 finished gives very low $$ value to mining: just $330 mil in revenue can be had this year-these are miniscule numbers for large companies.

Honestly, I don't see how it could be solved and current bitcoin becoming a major currency.
The best bet would be that bitcoin 2.0 will sprung with some link to bitcoin 1.0 and we will be able to do an exchange into the "new bitcoin"

Those who think that mining will prevent it, I present two facts to consider:
1. As most mining manufacturers are mining by themselves instead of selling miners to individuals, most mining will be concentrated in 3-4 major players (at best). it is easy for a few large players to switch to a new compatible coin.
2. Paycoin experience shows that miners are a fickle bunch. As long as you allow them to easily switch to a more lucrative coin (where they can get more $$ RIGHT NOW), they would do so, as long as their miner is compatible.

I feel no empathy for the miners for their expensive ASICs that will become worthless if we changed the protocol accordingly. The only thing that has any value in any debate about bitcoin's future is the number of coins you have because you can sign your opinion/vote with the private key to your coins and we can calculate the sum of votes in a democratic way. That said, I'd prefer to see bitcoin evolving and competing rather than stagnating.

Bitcoin should switch to PoS mining because then miners and stakeholders would be the same people and it would help to come to a consensus with much less effort in the future. Stakeholders would then be the owners of Bitcoin and it would solve every fucking problem we currently have due to not having a clear authority to decide which way to go.

The world's major powers (USA, EU, Japan) have never been more united in keeping this carnival going. I'm not worried about a 2015 collapse.

Some things already had a sharp decline: oil, gold stocks (70-80% decline in the last 3-4 years), bitcoin.
Bonds (TLT) already corrected 14% from the peak. Germany's bunds are in sharp decline (although only for about a mo)
All that remains are stocks and RE. For how long?

If USA enters another war they will collapse.

And things are bad in middle east and in other parts of the world.

And the debt is over 18 trillion dollar, so I can't say that US is doing everything to keep the carnival doing forever

The US, UK and Japanese debts are an illusion to a certain extent, because a significant % of the debt are owned by the respective central banks.

Thus 30-40% of the debt is circular and is just money printing.

That is just what we know about. Don't forget foreign central banks buy other countries debt as well.

Think about it :)

Nice thread inca - one of my absolute favourite posters here on bitcointalk.
I've been buying regularly and HODLING for a long time now like yourself & I truly believe that something is bubbling under the surface at the moment.
Whether a breakout occurs in the next few months or next year near the halving I don't know but it's pretty obvious imo that we'll enter another bubble.
I hope everybody is ready because it's going to be a hell of a ride, just make sure you don't miss this train people, it might only stop once :)

There are always FUDsters about but I can't help feeling bullish long term. Yes it may go down and this is very realistic and understandable with the amount of coins going on to the market each day but with the price staying fairly stable it shows btc here to stay.

Keep on buying.

This exactly...every day the price stays stable, that means 3600 more bitcoins were bought than sold. As more halvings occur, this downward pressure will be less and less. I don't anticipate bitcoin going to the moon anytime soon, but there's a lot more to it than just the price.

+1
I like it when you construct quality posts.

that accumulation time is from very long time,but it is truth that accumulation may take very long time
there is possible to see that on stock,now price is more or less stable,

people needing so much time to scoop up coins is nonsense. whale traders have already bought their coins. they don't wait. the only people who do wait are slow traders and newbies. because they are unsure.

Most people are on some sort of fixed income IE a salary. With a salary the more time that goes by they are able to purchase more coins with their disposable income. That is logical and not "nonsense".

"Whale traders have already bought their coins" --Maybe. But they aren't called whales for nothing. By definition these people are already rich and can do as they wish with their money/coins and this is not representative of the 99% of people. This also doesn't mean that all millionaires/billionaires already have bitcoin positions, in fact most of them don't have any bitcoins yet at all...think of the possibilities there.

We seem to be full steam boring ahead right now. Another month or two of sideways and things will start to look up technically.

We are 13 months from the halving. Less if more hash power comes online. From next month the countdown will have begun.

For the rally ?

the market for sure is putting a strong strain on the holders, how much they still hold is unknown, but many will surely fall if others downsides like the last one will come

i'm wondering if, by the time the halving comes there will be more distribution, and less strong hands, or we will always be stuck, with people holding 100k-200k coins...

If we rise another 25 dollars I am donning a spacesuit.

Anyone that bought into alt coins about 2 months ago is doing very well.

Anyone that bought into alt coins a year ago (me) is doing very poor.

Is it happening?

https://i.imgur.com/RXPj365.png

I vote for moon.

Thanks Inca for the chart, what are reasons for your voting ?

Big picture still intact. Eh, bears? ;D

Moon boots time LOL.

i pre-charge the whale, now ... wait ... wait more ...
http://images4.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20130524123550/dragonball/images/2/28/Super_Vegito_charging_the_Big_Bang_Attack..gif

well done =) always nice to watch the whole picture

i prepared moonboots when log downtrend was retestet with heavy volume now let the rocket fly