Bitcoin Forum

Its a perfect storm.

You have market participants who have borrowed to record levels in order to own stocks, totally leveraged up, yet the majority of traders are increasing their bets that this market is going to fall-and soon.

Below is an options statistics sheet of (NYSEARCA:SPY) SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, from today 6-2-15.

... more

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/29482055-gregory-mannarino/4058646-record-high-margin-debt-with-most-traders-betting-against-this-market

And this is why moon is in order!
 ;)

I guess it was at the moon six months ago and hasn´t moved much since then.

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=YM&cot=124601,124603&p=d1&rev=635690556675878143

...

galdur

You likely know that the S&P 500 blasted through its "Double Top" over the past four years. 

finviz apparently does not go far enough back to show that double top (at least as visibly as I have seen other longer-term S&P 500 charts), but the weekly chart DOES show the S&P 500 doubling over the past four years.  Checking their monthly chart shows a muted "second top".

I hold stocks (and am concerned...), but am well diversified into hard assets, etc.  Stocks (as well as most US real estate) have typically done well over a longer time frame.

"A perfect storm".  Nicely put.  It is coming.

Yeah OROBTC, I actually picked the wrong chart and the wrong time frame. This one below is much better. It does look a bit ominous doesn´t it?

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=ES&cot=138741,13874A&p=m1&rev=635690604376925923

No one can precisely predict the time of bubble burst. There are still many ppl who are buying up and ignoring the looming risk. They are attracted by the profit.

Don't fight the fed, they have very deep pockets.  The money in those very deep pockets might be imaginary, but as long as everyone is happy to keep on investing all of the newly printed money in the world into the markets, the prices will keep going up.

It will come tumbling down, but I wouldn't care to guess when. I think we might see 2500 on the S&P before we see 1500 again.

Trying to predict when the bubble will burst is a recipe for disaster. When you recognize a bubble, it's time to get out. That doesn't mean that you have to exit the market completely. You would definately want to get out of you cyclical stocks though. Especially if a large chunk of their shares are held by institutional investors.

All bubbles eventually burst and its a pretty good idea to have a good cash position when it finally bottoms out to take advantage all the bargains available. So a partial liquidation of one's position wouldn't be a bad idea.

Just hanging on and riding the bubble looking at the long term won't help either. All that will do is erase a decades worth of gains like it did in 2008.

I think they want to test the 200-day moving average, which they haven´t really touched since last year and before that well not for years. It´s currently at 2050 or so in the S&P. It would be a very natural correction and not necessarily indicative of any imminent crash. Maybe it´ll drop to say 1900 for a breather.

BTW, Finviz now has included BTC in its Forex section

http://finviz.com/fx_image.ashx?btcusd_m5_l.png&rev=635691019822223094

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=DX&cot=098662&p=m5&rev=635693671292141723

Well, if this continues it could be the beginning of the correction I was talking about the other day. First test of the 200-day MA and then maybe 1900.

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=ES&cot=138741,13874A&p=h1&rev=635693646491416472

Because FED is going to raise the interest rate, no one except bitcoin can fight FED

The whole system is leveraged to the hilt and then some. The FED itself is leveraged like 80 to 1. Since bond yield and price move in opposite directions you can imagine the result for them and other financial institutions once they start hiking rates.

No, it won´t happen any time soon. What will though is QE number 4. Maybe it´s already in operation, this mess isn´t really famous for transparency.

Exactly, it won't happen any time soon

After QE123, major banks are sitting on 5X more base money than 2008, in fact they have printed all the money that they should print in future 30 years, and now all these money are in their pocket collecting interest from FED

With that amount of cash reserve, any kind of monetary policy that we have seen before will be useless: Raise the interest rate will not crash the market, bond negative return will not slow the bond buying frenzy, simply because there are too much money in every banks' reserve. If no one is taking loan (loan condition raised by banks, ironically by the request from the government), banks will spend these money by themselves. As a result, large amount of assets will be bought by the banks in the next decades

Banks buy assets, and if the price crashed, they sell assets to FED in exchange for money, and use new money to buy more assets...

Well. that´s great news and a huge relief especially since in its 2014 annual report the FDIC points out that its whole insurance fund constitutes just a fraction of a percent of all deposits in the system, and that its ‘reserve ratio’ is just 1.01%. So, all that bail-in talk we´ve been hearing is just pointless noise. And the simulation exercises that the U.S. has conducted  with the U.K. in recent years a totally useless waste of time.

I guess that no one in government have the slightest idea about what is going on inside banks. Because of this, when things went wrong, they always make the wrong decision, and hit the most trivial part of the system. They bailout the bank by giving them the right to create trillions of dollars, and then banks use those dollars to enslave the nation. They tried to regulate banks, but their bailout is in fact the biggest deregulation

Goldman Sachs usually appoints the Sec. of Treasury which then plays with the heads of the dumbasses in Wash. D.C. We´ll have to see how this all goes this time. Good luck, g

Too big to fail is one concept they have become aware of after the crisis. If there is actual action on this front, then we can feel happy that the government has learnt something. It is definitely a costly lesson, but if it helps avert the next crisis, nothing like it.

well the sad part is, we cant do much.

despite the whole 2008 crisis, theres no form of protecting our money besides btc being the only option.

Wall Street and the Fed will take this market higher until all retail is in. However long that takes.

All about the transfer of wealth.

Exactly, people are enslaved by the fiat money, but at the same time they are addicted to it

the banks and government will just jump and left all with nothing ,why should they care ?they lend our money to others and there is no full protection at your money......the best is lets say you deposit 4000dollars and left for a while when you go to bank ask for that money they say on day xxx at xxx oclock come here ,but why you wanna take all money at once?The money is mine i dont need to say why i wanna it back do i? banks got insane and think they own your money till the moment you take it back ...

Keiser Report: Beware Bankers Bearing Debt Crack! (E770)

Published on Jun 13, 2015
In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss bursting bond bubbles, fleeing banks and scaring the hell out of Bill Gross. In the second half, Max interviews documentary filmmaker, Nick Broomfield, about whether #BlackLivesMatter when NHI (‘no humans involved’).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoY4gYFM5ww

A spike today in VIX. From a very low level of course since market complacency has been totally extreme. Maybe things with quiet down again, maybe not. We´ll see.

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=VX&cot=1170E1&p=m5&rev=635699784510976050

Fed sees second half recovery the twentieth year in a row. Will continue kicking the rate hike can down the road. What else is new.

All the charts are pointing towards a crash and I'm seeing some slight movement in the Bitcoin price, I doubt anything will be happening at summer when most are on holiday or doing nothing, get ready for when September comes.

Yep, mid-Sept. is the next time that the Fed will announce that no, rates can´t be hiked just yet. At some point the market will probably start figuring out that something is wrong after seven years of zero % and free money and QE4 probably around the corner.

But then there the black swans. Warmongering fever has been very high for a while and now the latest idiot in charge of the Pentagon is even threatening China. That on top of escalation against Russia. Maybe they get something major going during the summer they certainly seem to have been trying their best.

As I hate concept of FIAT but I think BTC won't help us much in the face of global economic crisis.

Imagine this scenario: crisis strikes -> economy is starting to crumble->markets are starting to panic -> people are selling every asset they have before it will reach 0 price.

Do you think people will stay with BTC or buy  more bitcoins in this case to rescue and allocate their money in crypto because it is immune to crisis?
I doubt it. They will sell BTC as fast as possible because it will have some worth over FIAT (for a short period, at least).

These crashes are very controlled and the next one will probably take a couple years to fully bottom. Or maybe it´s  too horribly overextended for any control now. It´s difficult to say. But there´s also an incredible bubble in bonds and that one has been building for over 30 years.

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=ES&cot=138741,13874A&p=m1&rev=635702085801719219

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=ZB&cot=020601&p=m1&rev=635702089383755536

....The New York Stock Exchange reported that margin climbed to an all-time high of $507.15 billion in April (most recent numbers) from $476.38 billion in March.

That’s a $25 billion increase in just 30 days, which shows me that investors are throwing caution to the wind. ......

[more] http://www.equities.com/editors-desk/investing-strategies/shorting/margin-debt-bubble-a-day-of-reckoning-is-nigh

http://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/newsletters/Image_3_20150616_CTD.gif

MONDAY, JUNE 29, 2015

Today’s 34% VIX Spike and What to Expect Going Forward

One of the top posts of 2013 was All-Time VIX Spike #11 (and a treasure trove of VIX spike data), in which I sliced and diced the twenty largest one-day VIX spikes in the history of the VIX. Nineteen of those spikes were in excess of 30% and with all-time #5 arriving later in 2013 and all-time #15 and #16 following in 2014, I was compelled to comment that despite the seemingly low VIX and concerns about complacency, 2014 Had Third Highest Number of 20% VIX Spikes.

Fast forward to the present and for all the talk of a low VIX, some forget that the second day of 2015 had a 28.1% VIX spike and then today, we saw a 34.5% VIX spike, the eleventh largest in the history of the VIX and enough to trigger an update to the table of largest one-day VIX spikes below. ... more

http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2015/06/todays-34-vix-spike-and-what-to-expect.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+VixAndMore+%28VIX+and+More%29

...

galdur

That's a great chart there (S&P and margin debt), it sure puts those two indices into perspective.

I am not into technical analysis, but I do like studying financial history.  That chart is part of today's lesson.  The other part of today's lesson is what happened in stock markets around the world re Greece.

Next up?  China?  Spain/Portugal/Italy?

 Bespoke put out a report analyzing days similar to today in market history. Here’s what they had to say regarding the Dow Jones break down below its 200 day moving average:

Today’s 350-point decline for the Dow Jones Industrial Average left the index below its 200-day for the first time in 170 trading days going back to October 2014. So with this massive break down, is the market doomed?

During the current bull market going back to 2009, the index has had five streaks of 150+ trading day closes above its 200-day moving average. Over the last twenty years, we’ve had ten occurrences.

…at least over the last twenty years, the market has bounced back very well in the near term. Over the next month, the Dow has actually averaged a gain of 4.15%! Notably, the last streak ended on 10/10/14 after 171 trading days, just one more day than the current streak lasted. Following that break, the index struggled over the next week but then surged over the next month.

Basically, breaks below the 200-day after long streaks of closes above the 200-day have been better buy signals than sell signals over the last twenty years…

https://www.stocktrader.com/go/bespoke.htm

https://www.stocktrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Bespoke-analysis-062915.png?34f5c5

Bitcoin behaving well. I guess the third try for 300 since January is in the works. If it holds that and preferably 350 and improves from there it´s time to get seriously bullish. But at some point the halving a year from now will start to be priced in. Perhaps this is the beginning of that.

http://finviz.com/fx_image.ashx?btcusd_m5_l.png&rev=635712586323571667

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=DX&cot=098662&p=m5&rev=635712586736883143

The world is defenceless against the next financial crisis, warns BIS


Monetary policymakers have run out of room to fight the next crisis with interest rates unable to go lower, the BIS warns

By Peter Spence, Economics Correspondent11:30AM BST 28 Jun 2015

The world will be unable to fight the next global financial crash as central banks have used up their ammunition trying to tackle the last crises, the Bank for International Settlements has warned.
The so-called central bank of central banks launched a scatching critique of global monetary policy in its annual report. The BIS claimed that central banks have backed themselves into a corner after repeatedly cutting interest rates to shore up their economies.
These low interest rates have in turn fuelled economic booms, encouraging excessive risk taking. Booms have then turned to busts, which policymakers have responded to with even lower rates.
Claudio Borio, head of the organisation’s monetary and economic department, said: “Persistent exceptionally low rates reflect the central banks’ and market participants’ response to the unusually weak post-crisis recovery as they fumble in the dark in search of new certainties.” ... more

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11704051/The-world-is-defenseless-against-the-next-financial-crisis-warns-BIS.html

When you see a buildup like this the odds are in your favour that if you switch to a cash position hold out a few months and wait your likely to be on the winning end of the market since bubble collapses can impact valuations significantly.
If your a risk taker playing the squeeze against the Fed and measuring sentiment can be a double scoop.
That said it never hurts to wait when their is potential for a down burst as you get more shares from the weakened leverage position holders, with Greece in the Eurozone, high leverage markets in China and pushing new highs in the American exchanges the patterns seem to be indicators of some shakeup how much we will need to wait and see to determine.

Market is likely to fall down further. The charts show the same, the speculators say the same.But the fall will be temporary ,this is what i feel. The fall was followed by the Grexit. So maybe the market is just facing the consequences. Anyway it's a bad news for investors like us ,who wait round the year to grab the rare opportunities.

The S&P is bouncing around right at the 200-day MA, about 2060. A very infrequent visit there for the last several years. If it fails to hold that for maybe 1-2 weeks or so maybe a downtrend is in place. But I think that there´s some blood in this cow, ehm bull left yet. We´ll see.

China devalued, will de-peg next. That should be a rather big bang.

It,s impossible to time exactly but the big crash will start in the east and spread from there as markets open.

Best of luck, g

VIX Sept 50 Calls In Play: Someone Is Buying Market Collapse Insurance

It's amazing to think that just earlier this week VIX traded at 13 (and that a few weeks ago the S&P was testing all time highs): as of this moment the vol index is up nearly 100% since Tuesday (and all those 'sure thing' shorters of VXX are about to get some very unpleasant margin calls). ...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-21/vix-sept-50-calls-play-someone-bidding-market-collapse-insurance


http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150820_EOD26_0.jpg

World markets plunge as sell off continues



The benchmark Shanghai Composite declined 8.5%, wiping out all gains made this year. Many companies listed in Shanghai, including some large state-owned firms, fell by the maximum daily limit of 10%.
China's smaller Shenzhen Composite lost 7.7%.
In Japan, the Nikkei closed down 4.6%, and Australia's ASX All Ordinaries shed 4.0%. Seoul's KOSPI Composite lost 2.5%. Asian currencies were trading lower against the U.S. dollar.



(CNN)


http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/2015823_usecon2.jpg

Bitcoin not benefiting from this meltdown

http://finviz.com/fx_image.ashx?btcusd_m5_l.png&rev=635759862823107740

...

Many, many observers think that we may just be getting started re the declines.  If they continue (and every night after 9:00 PM you can check US futures at marketwatch.com) that might foretell a bad economy.

A recession would mean more pain for stock investors.  Which would eventually affect real estate, etc.

The US$ now may be a good bet, now that it got hit when the "Carry Traders" took much of their money home to Europe and Japan.  The USA is still the "cleanest dirty shirt in the closet."

Yeah, I think there,s blood left in the U.S. bull yet. But a serious correction can only do this stupendous bubble good

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=ES&cot=138741,13874A&p=m1&rev=635760443238643997

and it,s probably into an -any excuse to sell is good- phase now. Then there,s the good old fed, hike or QE4? At some point this other bubble, the mommy of them all going strong for 30 years straight now is bound to burst I guess.

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=ZB&cot=020601&p=m1&rev=635760448167557524

The fun part is that the US is still saying their economy is recovering at a steady pace.
But this is a fairly strong domino effect so its only a matter of time till those high margin traders make a killing in this market.
(Good week to be short)
Black Monday 2015

What was really driving stocks today was simple - USDJPY fun-durr-mentals..

zerohedge.com   naturally


http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150825_EOD5_0.jpg

Why Has The Stock Market Crash Taken So Long? Mike Maloney with Rick Rule

More: http://hiddensecretsofmoney.com/videos Here's an outtake from Season 2 of Hidden Secrets Of Money.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uLnF4nwW4Y

It's just a matter of time that these things will all come crashing down. In fact I'm amazed that despite fiat get created out of thin air everything still manages to hang on for so long. And so it goes on..

Yeah well, like Mike Maloney puts it, fiat and debt and consumerism is a sweet lie that most people just want to believe. And of course they always get plenty to support their faith from bubblevision and the thugs they vote into office.

This dip here could be the beginning of the crash of 2016. As you can see the crash of 2008 took a year or so.

In any case, expect turbulance and volatility ahead

https://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=ES&cot=138741,13874A&p=m1&rev=635784002756485893

Fed raised rates, finally. Yeah, I think that double top there portends the beginning of the crash of 2016. It´ll probably take a year at least, perhaps longer.

Explaining Today's "Massive Stop Loss" Quad-Witching Market Waterfall: Why 2000 Must Be Defended At All Costs

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/18/2015 08:43 -0500

Citadel Reuters

One week ago, and again last night, we previewed today's main event: an immensely important quad-witching expiration, the year's last, one which as JPM's head quant calculated will be the "largest option expiry in many years. There are $1.1 trillion of S&P 500 options expiring on Friday morning. $670Bn of these are puts, of which $215Bn are struck relatively close below the market level, between 1900 and 2050."

What is most important, is that the "pin risk", or price toward which underlying prices may gravitate if HFTs are unleashed to trigger option stop hunts, is well below current S&P levels: as JPM notes, "clients are net long these puts and will likely hold onto them through the event and until expiry. At the time of the Fed announcement, these put options will essentially look like a massive stop loss order under the market."

What does this mean? Considering that the bulk of the puts have been layered by the program traders themselves, including CTA trend-followers and various momentum strategist (which work in up markets as well as down), and since the vol surface of today's market is well-known to everyone in advance, there is a very high probability the implied "stop loss" level will be triggered.

Not helping matters will be the dramatic lack of market depth (thank you HFTs and regulators) and overall lack of liquidity, which means even small orders can snowball into dramatic market moves. "While equity volumes look robust, market depth has declined by more than 60% over the last 2 years. With market depth so low, the market does not have capacity to absorb large shocks. This was best illustrated during the August 24th crash."

That's the qualitative explanation. What about the quantitative? According to Thomson Reuters data, between SPX 2050 and 1900 levels there are currently about 1.1 mln put contracts open vs 739,000 call contracts. As Reuters unnecessarily observes, "unless there is a substantial move in either direction that is sharply greater than the standard deviation, large SPX options positions should have limited impact on the market."

Well of course: the problem is that since over the past 7 years, the entire market has become one giant stop hunt, the very algos which "provide liquidity" will do everything they can to inflict the biggest pain possible to option holders - recall that for every put (or call) buyer, there is also a seller. As such, illiquid markets plus algo liquidity providers makes for an explosive cocktail at a time when the Fed is already worried whether the Fed may have engaged in "policy error."

So what does this mean in simple English? As Reuters again points out, levels to watch are the large imbalances in favor of puts in Dec SPX put contracts at 2050, 2000, 1950, 1900 strikes

It further writes that "as SPX moves below these levels market makers who are short these puts would be forced to sell spot futures to hedge, which could exacerbate a market selloff."

In other words, selling which begets even more selling, which begets even more selling.

The Fed's trading desk, and its Citadel "market supportive" joint venture, will be busy.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-18/explaining-todays-massive-stop-loss-quad-witching-market-waterfall-why-2000-must-be-

Now; that is one big dog. Apple has lost $150 billion of its market cap. And that is more than the total market cap of 475 of the S&P 500 from Pepsico at $147 bn down to #500!

Asian markets tumbled Monday on the first day of trading in 2016, with declines so steep in mainland China that authorities halted trading there for the rest of the day.

Analysts said China’s weak manufacturing data and a rapidly weakening Chinese yuan helped push the Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, -6.86%  down 6.9%, its biggest decline on record for the first trading day of the year. The smaller Shenzhen Composite 399106, -8.22%  fell 8.2%.

Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average NIK, -3.06% was down 3%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI, -2.68% fell 2.7% and South Korea’s Kospi SEU, -2.17%   was down 2.1%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, -0.48%  fell 0.5%.


The CSI 300 000300, -7.02%  , a benchmark of the largest 300 stocks listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, fell 7% just after 1:30 p.m. local time triggering a new circuit-break system, which took effect Monday. Chinese authorities said in December that they would halt trading for 15 minutes if the CSI 300 moves up or down by 5% or more 15 minutes before their local 3 p.m. close, in an attempt to stabilize a volatile market that plunged more than 40% during the summer.

A daily movement of at least 7% triggers a trading freeze for the rest of the day.

“The circuit breaker system actually creates a downward spiral” as more investors get nervous about trying to get out before others, said Hao Hong, managing director at Bank of Communications Co. “Having this so-called system in place is actually making the selling worse.”

Chinese markets led the regional benchmarks lower after a private reading of factory-floor conditions showed activity contracted for the 10th-straight month in December, the latest signal that China’s economy is stalling. The Caixin China manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 48.2 in December from 48.6 the previous month. A figure under 50 indicates contraction.

Earlier Monday, China’s central bank guided the currency weaker, setting the daily fix for the onshore yuan at 6.5032, its weakest level since 2011, compared with 6.4936 on Dec. 31. The currency can trade 2% above or below the fix.

The offshore and onshore yuan traded at their weakest levels since April 2011, with the onshore yuan as weak as weak as 6.5140 to one U.S. dollar early Monday. Many investors expected the onshore yuan to end 2015 at 6.5, and traders say they are broadly maintaining their outlook that the yuan will to continue to weaken.

Benchmark yields, which move inversely to prices, on five-year and 10-year Chinese government bonds rose after hitting multiyear lows in 2015.

Currencies in Asia slid across the board against the U.S. dollar with South Korea’s won down over 1.04% and the Taiwanese dollar down 0.94%, as fears that the Chinese yuan’s accelerating slide would drag down these economies.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-slide-on-fears-of-stalling-chinese-economy-2016-01-03?siteid=rss&rss=1

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=VX&cot=1170E1&p=d1&rev=635874770853005834

The Chinese stock market dropped 7% today. Most shares dropped to the 10% limit. The world economy is not in good shape.

China stocks seesaw, turbulent trading for oil and an elementary discovery

Agenda - The World Economic Forum  by FirstFT 11:04 am

The daily briefing “FirstFT” from the Financial Times.

This article is published in collaboration with The Financial Times.

Chinese stock markets, fresh from sparking a global rout on Monday, began Tuesday with wild swings — swiftly turning steep declines at the open into positive territory before falling again, all within the space of 10 minutes.

Chinese markets were dented on the first trading day of the new year by fresh concerns over the health of the domestic economy, sending global equities down by the most in more than four months. (FT)

In the news

Turbulent trading for oil Crude oil prices swung in a wide range on Monday as traders weighed increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East against weakening data from China, a major commodities consumer. US crude oil rose as much as 3.6 per cent, and fell as much as 1.9 per cent during the volatile session on Monday, according to Bloomberg data. (FT)

Mideast discord deepens Bahrain and Sudan on Monday followed the lead of their Sunni ally Saudi Arabia and severed relations with Iran, as the political crisis deepened over the execution of Nimr al-Nimr, the dissident Shia cleric. (FT)

World’s largest blue star sapphire found Gemmologists in Sri Lanka claim that the largest blue star sapphire yet has been discovered in a mine in the country. The gemmology institute in the capital Colombo has certified that the gem weighs 1,404.49 carats and say they have not certified anything larger. (BBC)

US files suit against VW The US government filed a civil complaint against Volkswagen for allegedly allowing nearly 600,000 vehicles with diesel engines to “emit excessive air pollution across the country, harming our health and cheating consumers”. The allegations, which are the latest step in the US government’s case against the big German automaker, carry penalties that could stretch into the billions of dollars. (FT)

Obama takes action on gun violence The White House has revealed plans to make it harder to buy firearms as President Barack Obama seeks to curb the “scourge” of gun violence in his final year in office. Fulfilling a pledge to bypass Congress, the White House announced measures to expand background checks on gun buyers and step up the enforcement of gun laws. (FT)

It’s a big day for

Venezuela, where the new year heralds a power struggle as an opposition-led legislature is sworn in. (FT)

Food for thought

Predicting the future An increasing number of banks and fund managers are making very long-term forecasts, arguing they are easier to do than shorter-term predictions. But do they really tell anyone anything? (FT)

China’s new religion Scarcely a decade ago, Chinese marathon organisers struggled to fill their starting blocks. Now, in the big cities, runners have to win a lottery to enter. “Running is the new religion of the Chinese middle class,” said one enthusiast, who believes the nation has moved beyond the days when its national sport was, well, shopping. (FT)

The man with 1,500 credit cards They are all valid and offer a total credit line of $1.7m. The collection started with a bet in the 1960s and culminated with a title in the Guinness Book of World Records and a wallet that stretches 250 feet. (ABC)

Elementary discovery Four new elements have been added to the periodic table, finally completing the table’s seventh row and rendering science textbooks around the world instantly out of date. The elements, discovered by scientists in Japan, Russia and the US, are the first to be added to the table since 2011, when elements 114 and 116 were included. (The Guardian)

Top destinations for 2016 From South Africa to the Andes, a select panel of travel industry leaders offers an insiders’ guide to the top destinations of 2016. (FT)

A new year bump John Authers analyses a hectic start to 2016, as Chinese stocks sell off, an impending leadership change in the US, and European manufacturers appear to gear for growth. (FT)

Publication does not imply endorsement of views by the World Economic Forum.

To keep up with the Agenda subscribe to our weekly newsletter.

Author: FirstFT is the Financial Times’ editors curated free daily email of the top global stories from the FT and the best of the rest of the web.

https://agenda.weforum.org/2016/01/china-stocks-seesaw-turbulent-trading-for-oil-and-an-elementary-discovery/

FXStreet (Mumbai) – The sentiment around the oil markets was hit badly this Wednesday, and the prices resumed the broader downtrend amid persisting supply glut worries ahead of the weekly EIA report

Brent hits 11-yr low, WTI falls to 2-week low

Currently, WTI drops -1.29% to 35.50, while the Brent oil plunges nearly 2% to 35.75 levels, retreating slightly from fresh 11-year low struck at $ 35.53. Oil prices wiped-out corrective gains and fell back in the negative territory as rising supply worries overshadow the ongoing tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

According to a Reuters poll of eight analysts, in the United States, concerns over mounting stock levels were ongoing, with crude inventories likely to have risen by 439,000 barrels last week.

Moreover, strengthening greenback across the board ahead of the FOMC minutes, adds further to the downside in the oil prices. The US dollar trades near one-month highs at 99.60, up 0.12% on the day.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=66dcc6ee-3c74-4bc4-9bd7-8c59af2ebe6a

Saudi-Iran tensions can’t stop the oil price crash as Brent reaches fresh 11-year low

Brent crude falls below $35 as Iran says oversupply, rather than a new Middle East war, is the biggest threat to prices

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/12084237/saudi-arabia-iran-tensions-brent-crude-oil-hits-11-year-low.html

Dow set for triple-digit loss as China roils markets again

U.S. stock futures pointed to sharp losses at the open on Wednesday, after weak Chinese services data cemented fears of an economic slowdown in the world’s second largest economy.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average YMH6, -1.38%  slid 161 points, or 1%, to 16,920, while those for the S&P 500 index ESH6, -1.48%  dropped 21.20 points, or 1.1%, to 1,990.50. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index NQH6, -1.61%  lost 48.25 points, or 1.1%, to 4,435.00.

“The dismal start to 2016 appears to have only intensified this Wednesday, with disappointing Chinese services data (sending the yuan to a 5-year low against the dollar even if the Shanghai Composite managed some counter-intuitive growth), a fresh 11-year low for Brent Crude and reports of a fourth nuclear test from North Korea,” said Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, in a note.

The purchasing managers index for China’s services sector dropped to a 17-month low in December, further indicating growth in the world’s second-largest economy is slowing down. Markets in Asia mainly fell in reaction, with the Hang Seng IndexHSI, -0.98%  down 1%, but the Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, +2.25% bucked the trend with a rise of 2.3%.

The services data come after a disappointing reading on China’s manufacturing sector on Monday, which triggered a market rout globally.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-set-for-triple-digit-loss-as-china-roils-markets-again-2016-01-06?dist=beforebell

A “Perfect Storm Is Coming” Deutsche Warns As Baltic Dry Falls To New Record Low

At 468, The Baltic Dry Index is now at a new record low…

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/01/20160105_BDIY_0.jpg

Which leads Deutsche Bank to warn of…A Perfect Storm Brewing

 The improvement in dry bulk rates we expected into year-end has not materialized. And based on conversations we’ve had with several industry contacts, we believe a number of dry bulk companies are contemplating asset sales to raise liquidity, lower daily cash burn, and reduce capital commitments. The glut of “for sale” tonnage has negative implications for asset and equity values. More critically, it can easily lead to breaches in loan-to-value covenants at many dry bulk companies, shortening the cash runway and likely necessitating additional dilutive actions.

 

Dry bulk companies generally have enough cash for the next 1yr or so, but most are not well positioned for another leg down in asset values

 

The majority of publically listed dry bulk companies have already taken painful measures to adapt to the market- some have filed Chapter 11, others have issued equity at deep discounts, and most have tried to delay/defer/cancel newbuilding deliveries.

 

The additional cushion, however, is likely not enough if asset values take another leg down; especially given the majority of publically listed dry bulk companies are already near max allowable LTV levels.

 

The move to sell assets in unison can lead to a downward spiral, where the decline in values leads to an immediate need for additional equity to cure LTV breaches.

Source: Deutsche Bank

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-05/perfect-storm-coming-deutsche-warns-baltic-dry-falls-new-record-low

...

Well, we're down BIG TIME in the stock market today (Dow down 300 points as of now, 3:05 PM US ET).

I also follow the Baltic Dry Index, although our company in Peru buys by the "less-than-containerload", but marine freight rates for even our small business have come down (Busan and Shanghai to Callao, Peru).

it reminds me of this:

https://i.imgur.com/EU2BcbR.png

If what OP says is true, then yeah it's bad and it's coming.  It was kinda the same thing back in 1929, where everyone was overleveraged.  It was also true of Long Term Capital Management in 1998, which could have bankrupted most of the financial institutions in the US. 

I don't necessarily look forward to a crash, but it sure would be nice to be able to buy some cheap stocks.  And if you're the owner of any real estate, you're smart.  I wish I had cash flow to buy some.  I do have a bit of silver but not a whole lot.

Margin debt has come off the peak back there in April-May but is still very high. If it´s getting ready to correct then the stock market should quickly follow

http://content.screencast.com/users/MyJingData/folders/Jing/media/f8b7a2d9-9bae-4abc-96d1-6b0db09c3e3f/Margin%20debt%20Jan%202.png

I think cash levels at mutual funds are very low presently. Should be another danger sign. And then there´s always the epic battle between the FED´s money printing and collapsing commodities prices. It´s going to be interesting.

Here´s another very interesting chart. The mismatch between the risk-on stocks and risk-off fixed interest sector.
Something´s going to give for sure.

Note that the Dollar started its big run back there in the summer of 2014.

http://content.screencast.com/users/MyJingData/folders/Jing/media/eb56008d-14b2-482c-a730-f90263bea2fd/Junk%20Jan%202.png

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=DX&cot=098662&p=w1&rev=635877351519638939

galdur has displayed the most interesting dangerous looking chart of the day.  Those big interest rate spreads breaking an apparent correlation with the S&P.

My guess is that the End Result of all of this is not go to be pretty.

*   *   *

Related: I saw "The Big Short" (movie) yesterday about the Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) and related subprime sleaze of 2006 - 2008.  Highly recommended.  But you will NOT leave with a smile...

Banksters...

It seems likely to retest those bottoms of last Aug. and Oct. Major support around 2000 in the S&P has been breaking down since November. Then again it could make yet another try for a new high. But I doubt it. The breadth isn´t good. The big dogs and fantasy stocks mask it. If you look at the small ones in the Russel 2000 they´re almost in bear market territory already.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?chart=%24SPX,uu[700,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iue12,26,9!lc20]

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?chart=%24RUT,uu[700,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iue12,26,9!lc20]

These charts update here so you need to to shift the chart to the left so it fits what was posted if you read this later  ;D

...

CHINA halted trading a little while ago (tonight, Weds, night USA).  Their Shanghai stock index down a little over 7% (after losing 7% a couple or so days ago).  Yikes!

Dow futures down some 160 last I looked.

Big problems coming?  Zero Hedge is all lit up...

Wow, crude oil keeps tanking, now at 33 dollars. It looks seriously oversold so I wonder if there could be a little short covering coming up (before the next leg down).

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?chart=%24WTIC,uu[700,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iue12,26,9!lc20]

It seems pretty much confirmed; the crash of 2016 has started. It´ll probably take all year to bottom.

The breadth is absolutely awful. Yesterday, although the DOW was up over 200 points, 20% of the entire stock market hit a new 52-week low.

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=ES&cot=138741,13874A&p=w1&rev=635884273761389403

It is at those bottoms now. Seems weak, doubt that it´ll hold. The Russell 2000 is already in bear market the big guys should follow soon.

""""We should all be asking: What were Wall Street’s latter-day bears saying last June, when the market was at an all-time high?

The answer is that bears were few and far between. On the contrary, bullishness was at close to extreme levels.""""

 ;D

Opinion: A bear market in stocks will be over before you know it

Published: Jan 15, 2016 5:12 a.m. ET

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-bear-market-in-stocks-will-be-over-before-you-know-it-2016-01-15?siteid=rss&rss=1

This Hulbert guy is an idiot. When bullishness is at an all time high this is a sure sign that a major correction is near. You don´t begin talking about bear markets after they´ve started you talk about them when you start anticipating them. It´s called being ahead of the curve.

...

The Dow is down 435 or so as I write.

But what I follow even more are indicators of where my personal finance lies.  The Baltic Dry Index (a measure of marine freight rates for bulk materials like corn and cement) is down to a record low:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24BDI&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=0&r=1452878662676

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24bdi

Other disturbing new lows:

GMT (GATX, a large company that leases railcars): $34.93, down 46% off its 2015 highs

TGH (Textainer Group Holdings, leases shipping containers): $9.51, down over 70% from 2015 high

Crude oil (WTIC) was under $30 / barrel earlier today....

Atlanta Fed Waits Until The Close To Reveal 0.6% Q4 GDP Estimate

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/15/2016 16:15 -0500

With less than half an hour until the close, we asked the Atlanta Fed - the most accurate predictor of GDP - which was scheduled to post an update of its Q4 GDP NowCast following today's ugly economic data, if it was was planning on releasing its latest Q4 GDP estimate before or after the close, something it usually does just before noon. ....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-15/atlanta-fed-waits-until-close-reveal-06-q4-gdp-estimate

The robo-machines are now having a grand old time hazing the August lows at 1870 on the S&P, and may succeed in ginning up another dead-cat bounce or two. But this market is going down for the count owing to a perfect storm.

To wit, the global and US economies are heading into an extended deflationary recession; S&P earnings peaked at $106 per share more than a year ago and are already at $90, heading much lower; and the central banks of the world are out of dry powder after a 20-year binge of balance sheet expansion.....more

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/soon-comes-the-deluge/

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Capture20.png

http://media.ycharts.com/charts/3c5cf22ef5f61dcd8ed53b5698d7ddbd.png

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Capture14.png

This volatility is alarming. 1000 point swings in a day. Haven't seen that since 2008.

Well, the stock sell-off is certainly beneficial to the central bankers with the bloated balance sheets. It drives money into bonds, up goes their price and down the yield. And it helps keep up the dollar. So, maybe this is being managed to some extent. In any event; a considerable correction in stocks was long overdue.

Isn´t it strange how you keep hearing for years and years that the biggest bubbles of them all are the safe-havens against other bubbles.  :D

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=ZB&cot=020601&p=m1&rev=635888760091981566

...

galdur

That's quite a Mighty March Upward for the 30-Year Bond!  All the way from 2000 until now.  Yes, in a recession (and/or deflation), the Bond will do very well compared to almost everything else.

But, neither do trees grow tot he sky.  30 years is a long time for economic conditions to change.

Dow down 387 as I write, and that is off its lows of the day.

Stayed diversified and cautious everyone...

*   *   *

EDIT: Crude oil is now down to a rather alarming $26.93, yow!

It´s a rout. At the moment about a third of stocks are hitting a 52-week low. But of course the indices are not equal weighted so the big dogs conceal the broad weakness. It´s better for morale, I guess.

Jeffrey Gundlach, co-founder and chief executive of DoubleLine Capital, said on Wednesday that the major declines in equity and credit markets could suggest that “margin calls are going on.”

Santelli : “We Have Quantitative Easing where Printed Paper Money is buying financial assets that can’t support themselves on their own fundamentals, Why is it logical to back to that world, where leverage is the only growth. Buying securities with printed money is not the solution”

Amid the global market turmoil, the Federal Reserve is more likely to ease than tighten interest rates again, Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, said Wednesday.

“The risks are asymmetric on the downside, because asset prices are comparatively high at the same time there’s not an ability to ease,” he added. “That asymmetric risk exists all around the world. So every country in the world needs an easier monetary policy.”

“It’s going to be much more difficult this next time,” he said, because the U.S. needs movement on fiscal policy from lawmakers in addition to just monetary policy from the central bank.

Stocks all over the world will go down,it was long pump now it  is dump time
First 20% than we will see

Well yeah, but this plunge is pretty similar to that of last August. In the months before that the Chinese had been dumping U.S. paper so driving the herd from stocks into bonds and the dollar was pretty useful. So, I´m a little bit suspicious. And you have the bubble vision chorus all clamoring for declines and taking time off from their usual bullish hype. Seems managed.
But I guess that banking systems here and there are beginning to show some cracks. And commodities seem to be screaming depression. So there are probably some major defaults ahead. Debt levels are stupendous and of course decreasing turnover is poison for any ponzi scheme.

The world´s second most traded commodity:

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=KC&cot=083731&p=m1&rev=635890146624679184

Bond price and yield move in opposite directions, the higher the price the lower the yield and vice versa. If you´re extremely leveraged when the FED starts hiking your capital base can pretty quickly be wiped out unless the declining bond price is managed. The FED itself is leveraged 80-1 which makes this even more urgent.

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=ES&cot=138741,13874A&p=d1&rev=635890386074011479

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=ZN&cot=043602&p=d1&rev=635890386423708600

Saudi Arabia's Secret Holdings of U.S. Debt Are Suddenly a Big Deal

 Andrea Wong
 MsAndreaWong
 Liz McCormick

January 22, 2016 — 12:00 AM GMT Updated on January 22, 2016 — 2:30 PM GMT

Hiding data is “mind-boggling,” says former Treasury official
Saudi burns through $100 billion of reserves as strains emerge

It’s a secret of the vast U.S. Treasury market, a holdover from an age of oil shortages and mighty petrodollars: Just how much of America’s debt does Saudi Arabia own?
But now that question -- unanswered since the 1970s, under an unusual blackout by the U.S. Treasury Department -- has come to the fore as Saudi Arabia is pressured by plunging oil prices and costly wars in the Middle East.
In the past year alone, Saudi Arabia burned through about $100 billion of foreign-exchange reserves to plug its biggest budget shortfall in a quarter-century. For the first time, it’s also considering selling a piece of its crown jewel -- state oil company Saudi Aramco. The signs of strain are prompting concern over Saudi Arabia’s outsize position in the world’s largest and most important bond market.

A big risk is that the kingdom is selling some of its Treasury holdings, believed to be among the largest in the world, to raise needed dollars. Or could it be buying, looking for a port in the latest financial storm? As a matter of policy, the Treasury has never disclosed the holdings of Saudi Arabia, long a key ally in the volatile Middle East, and instead groups it with 14 other mostly OPEC nations including Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Nigeria. For more than a hundred other countries, from China to the Vatican, the Treasury provides a detailed breakdown of how much U.S. debt each holds.

“It’s mind-boggling they haven’t undone it,” said Edwin Truman, the former Treasury assistant secretary for international affairs during the late 1990s, and now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. Because relations were rocky and the U.S. needed their oil, the Treasury “didn’t want to offend OPEC. It’s hard to justify this special treatment for OPEC at this point.”

For its part, the Treasury “aggregates data where more detailed reporting might disclose the positions of individual holders,” spokeswoman Whitney Smith said in an e-mail.
While that position is consistent with the International Investment and Trade in Services Survey Act, which governs disclosures of investments made by foreign persons and governments, and shields individuals in countries where Treasuries are narrowly held, it hasn’t kept the Treasury from disclosing figures for a whole host of other countries -- large and small.

They range from the $3 million stake held by the island nation of the Seychelles, to the $69.7 billion investment from the oil-producing economy of Norway, and those of China and Japan, which are both in excess of $1 trillion.
Representatives for the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, known as SAMA, and the nation’s finance ministry declined to comment.
Apart from the kingdom itself, only a handful of Treasury officials, and those at the Federal Reserve who compile the data on their behalf, have a clear picture of Saudi Arabia’s U.S. debt holdings and whether they’re rising or falling.
For everyone else, it’s a guessing game.

The special arrangement, born out of the 1973 oil shock following the Arab embargo, is just one small concession among many that successive U.S. administrations have made over the years to maintain America’s strategic relationship with the Saudi royal family -- and its access to the kingdom’s deep reserves of oil.
The exception extends to 12 other countries in the Treasury’s oil-exporter group, all from the Middle East or Africa. Based on aggregate data released this week, that group has trimmed its stakes by a few billion dollars since March and held $289 billion as of November.
Because its holdings are believed to be the largest, Saudi Arabia’s moves have drawn scrutiny, particularly as other central banks in emerging markets sell Treasuries to raise cash in defense of their currencies. (The Treasury doesn’t break out private and public holdings, but its disclosures say about two-thirds of foreign holdings are held by official institutions such as central banks.)

Those sales have had a small, but visible impact on America’s funding costs. According to Deutsche Bank AG, selling by foreign central banks since March has added 0.3 percentage point to yields on 10-year Treasuries, which ended Thursday at 2.03 percent.
SAMA’s own figures show reserve assets held in foreign securities have fallen by a record $108 billion in 2015. The Saudi central bank, which doesn’t disclose separate figures for Treasuries, owned $423 billion in overseas securities as of November.

“I come down on the side of thinking there should be more transparency,” said Jeff Caughron, chief operating officer at Baker Group, which advises community banks with more than $45 billion in investments. But at the same time, “the Treasury is constrained by political sensitivities and that comes into conflict with market participants that crave more transparency. It’s an understandable conflict.”
And events in recent months, from President Barack Obama’s landmark nuclear deal with Iran to Saudi Arabia’s execution of a prominent Shiite cleric who challenged the royal family, underscore just how sensitive U.S.-Saudi relations have become. The longstanding rationale for the alliance has also been undercut by America’s domestic oil boom, which has made it far less dependent on Saudi exports.

Whatever the political considerations, some analysts speculate Saudi Arabia may actually be trying to hold onto its Treasuries as part of a strategy to bulk up on dollar assets amid the deepening turmoil in global financial markets.

“You need dollars if you’re an oil producer, you want to make sure you have dollars on your balance sheet,” said Sebastien Galy, Deutsche Bank’s director of foreign-exchange strategy, who suggests SAMA could be raising cash by liquidating riskier investments such as stocks, real estate and private equity. Holding dollars also makes sense as a hedge against the plummeting price of oil, which is priced in the U.S. currency.
Figures from SAMA suggest the kingdom might be reallocating some of its reserves into short-term, liquid assets to help the finance ministry meet budget commitments and defend its 30-year-old currency peg of 3.75 riyals to the dollar.
The central bank has increased foreign currencies and deposits held abroad by 7 percent in the first 11 months of 2015, while at the same time reducing foreign securities, consisting of equities and longer-term debt, by 20 percent.
That cash has become key. Oil’s slump to less than $30 a barrel, from more than $100 two years ago, has eroded the petrodollar-fueled wealth that quadrupled per-capita income since the late 1980s and provided Saudi Arabia with the largess to offer free health care, gasoline subsidies and routine pay increases.

“When SAMA is required to raise liquidity for the Ministry of Finance, you’d see deposits and cash go up and they’d liquidate other assets,” said Khalid Alsweilem, SAMA’s former head of investment. “They know when the Ministry of Finance will spend all their riyals. So they prepare certain amount of cash available based on such expectations.”
Alsweilem, who spent 20 years at SAMA and now advocates for fiscal reforms as a fellow at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, says market watchers may overestimate how much money the central bank actually allocates to Treasuries.
SAMA isn’t a typical central bank because it acts as a quasi-sovereign wealth fund, he said. As such, it aims for higher returns as a buffer against falling oil revenue and invests in a wide array of risky assets, which explains why it has only recently started to become more transparent, Alsweilem said.
To hear Peterson Institute’s Truman tell it, more clarity by central banks is long overdue -- particularly when it comes to the U.S. Treasury.
“In the old days at the Treasury and central banks, transparency wasn’t the word of the day” and politics made special treatment a non-issue, he said. Now, “it’s simply a legacy issue. You want to deal with it sooner or later.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-22/u-s-is-hiding-treasury-bond-data-that-s-suddenly-become-crucial

Want To Know What The S&P500 Does Next? Just Look At The Fed's Balance Sheet

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2016 12:09 -0500

Central Banks Jim Reid Lehman


Over the past 7 years, we as well as others (if not those who believe in magic money trees, or managing other people's money while blogging) have repeatedly said that when it comes to "market" returns, look no further than the size of the Fed's balance sheet - the single best indictor of where the S&P500 is headed to next.

That is precisely what DB's Jim Reid did overnight. This is what he says:

Today we update a chart and table we used a fair amount in 2013/4 looking at the Fed balance sheet and equity and credit performance. .....more

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-28/want-know-what-sp500-does-next-just-look-feds-balance-sheet
 


http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/01-overflow/fed%20balance%20sheet%20vs%20es%20DB.jpg

Now; that is one intriguing head and shoulders formation. What´ll come of it, only time will tell. Seems to be a big stampede into the dollar currently, the E.U. and Japan (solid U.S. vassal regions) both being in negative interest rate territory. Strange times. As before; I think the big crash will start in the east and move west as markets open. When, well that´s the difficult part. It will probably loom for a while.

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=ES&cot=138741,13874A&p=d1&rev=635898652166621936

Financial stocks account for 16 per cent of the S&P 500 in the US, and their 9 per cent slide last month is the biggest single reason the benchmark index is now 5 per cent lower than at the start of the year. zerohedge


http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/02/01/20160201_banks3.jpg

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/02/01/20160201_banks1.jpg

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/02/01/20160201_banks2_0.jpg

Uh oh, the biggest trade in the universe unwinding too fast for control? That has to hurt somewhere. All those derivatives.......

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=DX&cot=098662&p=d1&rev=635901712277812191

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=ZN&cot=043602&p=d1&rev=635901712697951940

They could drop further when their loans to the oil companies become bad. It might affect their viability.

Yes, and major European banks seem to be on the verge of collapse. Maybe they´ll be printed back to life. Negative interest rates already in japan and Europe. I think the yield of the U.S. 5-yr note is presently at zero.
It´ll be a more or less controlled crash probably throughout the year.

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=DY&p=m1&rev=635906751650196199

03/11/2016 - Jeffrey Snider: US$ STRENGTH IS A MANIFESTATION OF A US$ SHORTAGE

FRA Co-Founder Gordon T.Long and Jeffrey Snider, Head of Global Investment Research at Alhambra Investment Partners discuss a broad array of Global Macro subjects in this 48 minute video discussion with supporting slides.

As Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff spearheads the investment research efforts while providing close contact to Alhambra’s client base. Jeff joined Atlantic Capital Management, Inc., in Buffalo, NY, as an intern while completing studies at Canisius College. After graduating in 1996 with a Bachelor’s degree in Finance, Jeff took over the operations of that firm while adding to the portfolio management and stock research process.

In 2000, Jeff moved to West Palm Beach to join Tom Nolan with Atlantic Capital Management of Florida, Inc. During the early part of the 2000′s he began to develop the research capability that ACM is known for. As part of the portfolio management team, Jeff was an integral part in growing ACM and building the comprehensive research/management services, and then turning that investment research into outstanding investment performance. As part of that research effort, Jeff authored and published numerous in-depth investment reports that ran contrary to established opinion. In the nearly year and a half run-up to the panic in 2008, Jeff analyzed and reported on the deteriorating state of the economy and markets. In early 2009, while conventional wisdom focused on near-perpetual gloom, his next series of reports provided insight into the formative ending process of the economic contraction and a comprehensive review of factors that were leading to the market’s resurrection. In 2012, after the merger between ACM and Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff came on board Alhambra as Head of Global Investment Research.

Jeff holds a FINRA Series 65 Investment Advisor License.

US TIC REPORT, TREASURY SALES


http://financialrepressionauthority.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/FRA-Podcast-TIC2.jpg

TIC is a compilation done by the US Treasury based on their access to data on foreign accounts and holdings of Dollar accounts and securities, and estimates the foreign Dollar market. Over the last decade or so, it is clear that the Eurodollar market grew steadily at a rapid rate until about August 2007, at which point it pivots and comes back down. The TIC data shows the tendency of dollar markets to essentially be stable, usually addressed through selling Treasury. However, the private dollar markets offshore are in disarray to the extent that central banks around the world are forced to fill the dollar deficiency with their own holdings. Of especial note is China’s reduction of their US Treasuries and foreign currency reserves, and OPEC countries incurring serious Current Account deficits in an attempt to maintain their pegs with the US dollar.  In addition are the emerging markets who borrowed about $7-9T in USD, who now have difficulty paying back debts due to slowing trade and falling currencies.

This all leads to the US dollar strengthening, which is the manifestation of the dollar shortage. In recent days, Japan using NIRP will further disrupt the dollar system.

“US Dollar Strength is a manifestation of a US Dollar Shortage!”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zapJDo5v7FM

more...

http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2016/03/11/jeffrey-snider-us-strength-is-a-manifestation-of-a-us-shortage/