Record High Margin Debt With Most Traders Betting Against This Market

[johnyj]

well the sad part is, we cant do much.

despite the whole 2008 crisis, theres no form of protecting our money besides btc being the only option.

Exactly, people are enslaved by the fiat money, but at the same time they are addicted to it

[knowhow]

the banks and government will just jump and left all with nothing ,why should they care ?they lend our money to others and there is no full protection at your money......the best is lets say you deposit 4000dollars and left for a while when you go to bank ask for that money they say on day xxx at xxx oclock come here ,but why you wanna take all money at once?The money is mine i dont need to say why i wanna it back do i? banks got insane and think they own your money till the moment you take it back ...

[galdur]

Keiser Report: Beware Bankers Bearing Debt Crack! (E770)

Published on Jun 13, 2015
In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss bursting bond bubbles, fleeing banks and scaring the hell out of Bill Gross. In the second half, Max interviews documentary filmmaker, Nick Broomfield, about whether #BlackLivesMatter when NHI (‘no humans involved’).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoY4gYFM5ww

[galdur]

A spike today in VIX. From a very low level of course since market complacency has been totally extreme. Maybe things with quiet down again, maybe not. We´ll see.

[galdur]

Fed sees second half recovery the twentieth year in a row. Will continue kicking the rate hike can down the road. What else is new.

[galdur]

[Lethn]

All the charts are pointing towards a crash and I'm seeing some slight movement in the Bitcoin price, I doubt anything will be happening at summer when most are on holiday or doing nothing, get ready for when September comes.

[galdur]

All the charts are pointing towards a crash and I'm seeing some slight movement in the Bitcoin price, I doubt anything will be happening at summer when most are on holiday or doing nothing, get ready for when September comes.

Yep, mid-Sept. is the next time that the Fed will announce that no, rates can´t be hiked just yet. At some point the market will probably start figuring out that something is wrong after seven years of zero % and free money and QE4 probably around the corner.

But then there the black swans. Warmongering fever has been very high for a while and now the latest idiot in charge of the Pentagon is even threatening China. That on top of escalation against Russia. Maybe they get something major going during the summer they certainly seem to have been trying their best.

[Hazir]

well the sad part is, we cant do much.

despite the whole 2008 crisis, theres no form of protecting our money besides btc being the only option.

Exactly, people are enslaved by the fiat money, but at the same time they are addicted to it

As I hate concept of FIAT but I think BTC won't help us much in the face of global economic crisis.

Imagine this scenario: crisis strikes -> economy is starting to crumble->markets are starting to panic -> people are selling every asset they have before it will reach 0 price.

Do you think people will stay with BTC or buy  more bitcoins in this case to rescue and allocate their money in crypto because it is immune to crisis?
I doubt it. They will sell BTC as fast as possible because it will have some worth over FIAT (for a short period, at least).

[galdur]

These crashes are very controlled and the next one will probably take a couple years to fully bottom. Or maybe it´s  too horribly overextended for any control now. It´s difficult to say. But there´s also an incredible bubble in bonds and that one has been building for over 30 years.

[galdur]

....The New York Stock Exchange reported that margin climbed to an all-time high of $507.15 billion in April (most recent numbers) from $476.38 billion in March.

That’s a $25 billion increase in just 30 days, which shows me that investors are throwing caution to the wind. ......

[more] http://www.equities.com/editors-desk/investing-strategies/shorting/margin-debt-bubble-a-day-of-reckoning-is-nigh

[galdur]

MONDAY, JUNE 29, 2015

Today’s 34% VIX Spike and What to Expect Going Forward

One of the top posts of 2013 was All-Time VIX Spike #11 (and a treasure trove of VIX spike data), in which I sliced and diced the twenty largest one-day VIX spikes in the history of the VIX. Nineteen of those spikes were in excess of 30% and with all-time #5 arriving later in 2013 and all-time #15 and #16 following in 2014, I was compelled to comment that despite the seemingly low VIX and concerns about complacency, 2014 Had Third Highest Number of 20% VIX Spikes.

Fast forward to the present and for all the talk of a low VIX, some forget that the second day of 2015 had a 28.1% VIX spike and then today, we saw a 34.5% VIX spike, the eleventh largest in the history of the VIX and enough to trigger an update to the table of largest one-day VIX spikes below. ... more

http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2015/06/todays-34-vix-spike-and-what-to-expect.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+VixAndMore+%28VIX+and+More%29

[OROBTC]

...

galdur

That's a great chart there (S&P and margin debt), it sure puts those two indices into perspective.

I am not into technical analysis, but I do like studying financial history.  That chart is part of today's lesson.  The other part of today's lesson is what happened in stock markets around the world re Greece.

Next up?  China?  Spain/Portugal/Italy?

[galdur]

...

galdur

That's a great chart there (S&P and margin debt), it sure puts those two indices into perspective.

I am not into technical analysis, but I do like studying financial history.  That chart is part of today's lesson.  The other part of today's lesson is what happened in stock markets around the world re Greece.

Next up?  China?  Spain/Portugal/Italy?

 Bespoke put out a report analyzing days similar to today in market history. Here’s what they had to say regarding the Dow Jones break down below its 200 day moving average:

Today’s 350-point decline for the Dow Jones Industrial Average left the index below its 200-day for the first time in 170 trading days going back to October 2014. So with this massive break down, is the market doomed?

During the current bull market going back to 2009, the index has had five streaks of 150+ trading day closes above its 200-day moving average. Over the last twenty years, we’ve had ten occurrences.

…at least over the last twenty years, the market has bounced back very well in the near term. Over the next month, the Dow has actually averaged a gain of 4.15%! Notably, the last streak ended on 10/10/14 after 171 trading days, just one more day than the current streak lasted. Following that break, the index struggled over the next week but then surged over the next month.

Basically, breaks below the 200-day after long streaks of closes above the 200-day have been better buy signals than sell signals over the last twenty years…

https://www.stocktrader.com/go/bespoke.htm

[galdur]

Bitcoin behaving well. I guess the third try for 300 since January is in the works. If it holds that and preferably 350 and improves from there it´s time to get seriously bullish. But at some point the halving a year from now will start to be priced in. Perhaps this is the beginning of that.

[galdur]

The world is defenceless against the next financial crisis, warns BIS


Monetary policymakers have run out of room to fight the next crisis with interest rates unable to go lower, the BIS warns

By Peter Spence, Economics Correspondent11:30AM BST 28 Jun 2015

The world will be unable to fight the next global financial crash as central banks have used up their ammunition trying to tackle the last crises, the Bank for International Settlements has warned.
The so-called central bank of central banks launched a scatching critique of global monetary policy in its annual report. The BIS claimed that central banks have backed themselves into a corner after repeatedly cutting interest rates to shore up their economies.
These low interest rates have in turn fuelled economic booms, encouraging excessive risk taking. Booms have then turned to busts, which policymakers have responded to with even lower rates.
Claudio Borio, head of the organisation’s monetary and economic department, said: “Persistent exceptionally low rates reflect the central banks’ and market participants’ response to the unusually weak post-crisis recovery as they fumble in the dark in search of new certainties.” ... more

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11704051/The-world-is-defenseless-against-the-next-financial-crisis-warns-BIS.html

[EternalWingsofGod]

No one can precisely predict the time of bubble burst. There are still many ppl who are buying up and ignoring the looming risk. They are attracted by the profit.

When you see a buildup like this the odds are in your favour that if you switch to a cash position hold out a few months and wait your likely to be on the winning end of the market since bubble collapses can impact valuations significantly.
If your a risk taker playing the squeeze against the Fed and measuring sentiment can be a double scoop.
That said it never hurts to wait when their is potential for a down burst as you get more shares from the weakened leverage position holders, with Greece in the Eurozone, high leverage markets in China and pushing new highs in the American exchanges the patterns seem to be indicators of some shakeup how much we will need to wait and see to determine.

[rayhan]

Market is likely to fall down further. The charts show the same, the speculators say the same.But the fall will be temporary ,this is what i feel. The fall was followed by the Grexit. So maybe the market is just facing the consequences. Anyway it's a bad news for investors like us ,who wait round the year to grab the rare opportunities.

[galdur]

The S&P is bouncing around right at the 200-day MA, about 2060. A very infrequent visit there for the last several years. If it fails to hold that for maybe 1-2 weeks or so maybe a downtrend is in place. But I think that there´s some blood in this cow, ehm bull left yet. We´ll see.

[galdur]

China devalued, will de-peg next. That should be a rather big bang.

It,s impossible to time exactly but the big crash will start in the east and spread from there as markets open.

Best of luck, g