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Title: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: bitpump on July 28, 2015, 05:30:16 AM Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving!
Next Bitcoin halving around July 1, 2016 https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3eu30l/bitcoin_clock_estimates_theres_now_less_than_a/ctigd6x Untill July 1, 2016: 3600 BTC per day * 297 USD * 339 days = 362,458,800 USD Per day: 3600 BTC * 297 USD = 1,069,200 USD After halving, Per day: only 534,600 USD ( 1800 BTC * 297 USD) is needed to keep current price. However, if inflow will still be $1mio, prices are expected to rise significantly Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: Amph on July 28, 2015, 07:50:07 AM if the day trading activity and the buy/sell from big merchants or every small merchants is at sum zero or sligtly in favor of buyers(because apparently there are more holders), then the reduction of 500k should double the price in theory
i mean the current coins in circulation does not matter much , the new produced coins from miners each day are what impacts the price the most Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: Elwar on July 28, 2015, 09:16:25 AM With over $700 million in VC funds so far this year, there is likely an expected return of at least that much money in return via the Bitcoin businesses they invested in. So $360 million is certainly quite feasible.
Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: OmegaStarScream on July 28, 2015, 09:24:42 AM For some reasons I start to think that miners would give up on mining after Mining block reward , I mean they was earning 25 BTC and they would be earning 12.5 will they still making profit with all electricity they are eating ? If not is it a possible theory that they will stop mining and Bitcoin will eventually die ? :-\
Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: Elwar on July 28, 2015, 09:40:58 AM For some reasons I start to think that miners would give up on mining after Mining block reward , I mean they was earning 25 BTC and they would be earning 12.5 will they still making profit with all electricity they are eating ? If not is it a possible theory that they will stop mining and Bitcoin will eventually die ? :-\ Same arguments happened in 2012 before the first halving. Unfortunately it was true. All miners stopped mining and Bitcoin ceased to be. RIP Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: dothebeats on July 28, 2015, 09:46:18 AM For some reasons I start to think that miners would give up on mining after Mining block reward , I mean they was earning 25 BTC and they would be earning 12.5 will they still making profit with all electricity they are eating ? If not is it a possible theory that they will stop mining and Bitcoin will eventually die ? :-\ That is unlikely to happen because in theory, as the supply diminishes, the value rises. Same with bitcoin, if the price rise by some % in the next halving, chances are miners would still continue on mining with their machines. If the negative happens, some miners who cannot gain profit on mining will simply turn off their miners so as to prevent losses. Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: bitpump on July 28, 2015, 10:41:15 AM For some reasons I start to think that miners would give up on mining after Mining block reward , I mean they was earning 25 BTC and they would be earning 12.5 will they still making profit with all electricity they are eating ? If not is it a possible theory that they will stop mining and Bitcoin will eventually die ? :-\ Since miners will only receive half of the reward, they will ask higher price for the mined bitcoins? This will drive up price? Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: minernoob1 on July 28, 2015, 11:00:52 AM Start making a bigger pile of BTC now. You will be regretful of this if you do not.
Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: Realpra on July 28, 2015, 11:29:28 AM For some reasons I start to think that miners would give up on mining after Mining block reward , I mean they was earning 25 BTC and they would be earning 12.5 will they still making profit with all electricity they are eating ? If not is it a possible theory that they will stop mining and Bitcoin will eventually die ? :-\ Bitcoin is the largest super computer in the entire world.... x500-2000!I think we would be just fine if there was 100 times less mining. Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: gotmilk_ on July 28, 2015, 11:35:54 AM Bitcoin needs 1mil of new users... That's all ;)
Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: bitpump on August 07, 2015, 05:33:26 AM A lot of people don't realize that for the price of bitcoin to hold steady right now, people have to buy $1M worth (or 3,600 BTC) per day https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong/status/629078912908132353 Block rewards are expected to halve some time around July 2016 (and continue halving after that). Even if buying holds steady, price climbs https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong/status/629079656952561664 Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: Nagle on August 07, 2015, 06:22:08 AM if the day trading activity and the buy/sell from big merchants or every small merchants is at sum zero or sligtly in favor of buyers(because apparently there are more holders), then the reduction of 500k should double the price in theory. It's a known future event, so it should already be priced into the current price.Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: Natalia_AnatolioPAMM on August 07, 2015, 06:51:52 AM So why nothing happens? Don't we have this much by now?
Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: silverbox on August 07, 2015, 07:53:10 AM For some reasons I start to think that miners would give up on mining after Mining block reward , I mean they was earning 25 BTC and they would be earning 12.5 will they still making profit with all electricity they are eating ? If not is it a possible theory that they will stop mining and Bitcoin will eventually die ? :-\ Same arguments happened in 2012 before the first halving. Unfortunately it was true. All miners stopped mining and Bitcoin ceased to be. RIP Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: Wexlike on August 07, 2015, 11:09:56 AM For some reasons I start to think that miners would give up on mining after Mining block reward , I mean they was earning 25 BTC and they would be earning 12.5 will they still making profit with all electricity they are eating ? If not is it a possible theory that they will stop mining and Bitcoin will eventually die ? :-\ Same arguments happened in 2012 before the first halving. Unfortunately it was true. All miners stopped mining and Bitcoin ceased to be. RIP Just throw the argument of excessive energy usage and terrorist funding into the pot,lol. Oh, and think about the children! ::) Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: randy8777 on August 07, 2015, 12:03:33 PM Bitcoin needs 1mil of new users... That's all ;) that would be nice but it really depends on the type of new users. if they all are broke and constantly farming faucets for lame rewards then it won't do much. Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: gentlemand on August 07, 2015, 12:04:36 PM It's a known future event, so it should already be priced into the current price. Is the final fraction of a coin arriving in 2140 priced in too? If that's the case then we should all go home. Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: Dilla on August 07, 2015, 12:09:02 PM This is part of the reason why I think the price is being held down right now, and we are in for another large run up.
24h volume is $28mil, and we have been sideways. I know a lot of that is noise, but if it's required that $28 million dollars is needed in volume a day is keeping the price where it is, and only $1million of that is needed for daily new coins, wouldn't you think someone(s) is trying to match the buying volume daily to accumulate slowly, until bitcoin volume gets large enough that you can't sell enough to get the price down? The volume is so small now that anyone with a large position in btc or usd can keep the market where they want and gain on it. Imagine if the daily buy volume was just $1-2 million more than the sell side daily, and then combined with HALF of the daily need from mining. Imagine if the daily volume went up to $50-100+ million a day because of Gemini and the ETF. If you don't think people are waiting on the sidelines for that to come around, then you are blind. The approval of those will ease the comfort of buying, and many many more people will buy a few bitcoin "just incase" just incase their crazy neighbor/uncle/coworker was right about bitcoin being revolutionary. Yes altcoins can overcome bitcoin, but bitcoin really is the only one going mainstream right now and getting this much VC funding, so that won't happen within the near future. Imagine the volume if this takes up 5% of the worlds transactions. I'm not going to name any possible prices of what all of this snowballed together could value to, because I don't know, but I know it means a higher value than what it is now, and probably by at least double ;) 2016 is going to be wild. This is, gentlemen. Prepare you agnus For the halving. Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: bitcollins85 on August 16, 2015, 03:57:25 PM If the majority of bitcoin-exchange market supply is coming from mining, which currently seems to be the case, and that supply halves, that's a supply shock. If demand remains the same, the price must roughly double.
Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: xeretix on August 16, 2015, 04:28:10 PM If the majority of bitcoin-exchange market supply is coming from mining, which currently seems to be the case, Not at all. Not even if we assume miners selling every coin they mine. Source: blockchain.info Quote and that supply halves, that's a supply shock. If demand remains the same, the price must roughly double. A fundamental misunderstanding of how the market works. If that was really the case, GM could simply cut the number of cars manufactured in half, and double the price. Profit! Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: Fiat_Hodler on August 16, 2015, 04:33:41 PM If the majority of bitcoin-exchange market supply is coming from mining, which currently seems to be the case, Not at all. Not even if we assume miners selling every coin they mine. Source: blockchain.info Quote and that supply halves, that's a supply shock. If demand remains the same, the price must roughly double. A fundamental misunderstanding of how the market works. If that was really the case, GM could simply cut the number of cars manufactured in half, and double the price. Profit! Really comparing bitcoin to cars??? If there were only 100 cars in existence and there would never be any more, then we destroyed 50 of them , yes, the price of the remaining cars would skyrocket... Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: xeretix on August 16, 2015, 04:45:41 PM If the majority of bitcoin-exchange market supply is coming from mining, which currently seems to be the case, Not at all. Not even if we assume miners selling every coin they mine. Source: blockchain.info Quote and that supply halves, that's a supply shock. If demand remains the same, the price must roughly double. A fundamental misunderstanding of how the market works. If that was really the case, GM could simply cut the number of cars manufactured in half, and double the price. Profit! Really comparing bitcoin to cars??? If there were only 100 cars in existence and there would never be any more, then we destroyed 50 of them , yes, the price of the remaining cars would skyrocket... err yeah, if Biitcoin was the only money in existence, or even the only crypto... But let's work with your example: "If there were only 100 cars in existence and there would never be any more, then we destroyed 50 of them , yes, the price of the remaining cars would skyrocket..." No, it would not. People will learn to walk, or ride scooters, or trains, or fly. Other car manufacturers would appear (just like other coins are appearing). You're starting with the same misconception that Beanie Babies enthusiasts fell victim to: Limited supply guarantees value. Of course, it doesn't. I don't need to own a Beanie, and I certainly don't need to own a bitcoin--I can chose to simply ignore both & use my CC. Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: nicked on August 16, 2015, 05:25:15 PM If the majority of bitcoin-exchange market supply is coming from mining, which currently seems to be the case, Not at all. Not even if we assume miners selling every coin they mine. Source: blockchain.info Quote and that supply halves, that's a supply shock. If demand remains the same, the price must roughly double. A fundamental misunderstanding of how the market works. If that was really the case, GM could simply cut the number of cars manufactured in half, and double the price. Profit! Really comparing bitcoin to cars??? If there were only 100 cars in existence and there would never be any more, then we destroyed 50 of them , yes, the price of the remaining cars would skyrocket... err yeah, if Biitcoin was the only money in existence, or even the only crypto... But let's work with your example: "If there were only 100 cars in existence and there would never be any more, then we destroyed 50 of them , yes, the price of the remaining cars would skyrocket..." No, it would not. People will learn to walk, or ride scooters, or trains, or fly. Other car manufacturers would appear (just like other coins are appearing). You're starting with the same misconception that Beanie Babies enthusiasts fell victim to: Limited supply guarantees value. Of course, it doesn't. I don't need to own a Beanie, and I certainly don't need to own a bitcoin--I can chose to simply ignore both & use my CC. Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: xeretix on August 16, 2015, 05:48:15 PM If the majority of bitcoin-exchange market supply is coming from mining, which currently seems to be the case, Not at all. Not even if we assume miners selling every coin they mine. Source: blockchain.info Quote and that supply halves, that's a supply shock. If demand remains the same, the price must roughly double. A fundamental misunderstanding of how the market works. If that was really the case, GM could simply cut the number of cars manufactured in half, and double the price. Profit! Really comparing bitcoin to cars??? If there were only 100 cars in existence and there would never be any more, then we destroyed 50 of them , yes, the price of the remaining cars would skyrocket... err yeah, if Biitcoin was the only money in existence, or even the only crypto... But let's work with your example: "If there were only 100 cars in existence and there would never be any more, then we destroyed 50 of them , yes, the price of the remaining cars would skyrocket..." No, it would not. People will learn to walk, or ride scooters, or trains, or fly. Other car manufacturers would appear (just like other coins are appearing). You're starting with the same misconception that Beanie Babies enthusiasts fell victim to: Limited supply guarantees value. Of course, it doesn't. I don't need to own a Beanie, and I certainly don't need to own a bitcoin--I can chose to simply ignore both & use my CC. Sure, until miners decide to point their gear to another coin. Remember, reward halving means miners will gross half as much as they do now. Depending on BTC price at that time, their net could become negative. Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: gentlemand on August 16, 2015, 06:53:51 PM Sure, until miners decide to point their gear to another coin. Remember, reward halving means miners will gross half as much as they do now. Depending on BTC price at that time, their net could become negative. There aren't very many alternative coins that a Bitcoin ASIC could mine. And even fewer that are actually worth anything. Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: xeretix on August 16, 2015, 07:47:11 PM Sure, until miners decide to point their gear to another coin. Remember, reward halving means miners will gross half as much as they do now. Depending on BTC price at that time, their net could become negative. There aren't very many alternative coins that a Bitcoin ASIC could mine. And even fewer that are actually worth anything. There's nothing worth mining now because it's hard to compete with BTC at its current block reward. This may all change next year if BTC price doesn't double by the time block reward is halved. The whole thing kinda feeds on itself, think the kindling model (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kindling_model). Bitcoin is strong because it's strong; because a large, expensive network of miners is behind it. Turn that network to a clone coin, and bitcoin's no longer strong, the clone coin is. Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: gentlemand on August 16, 2015, 07:53:09 PM There's nothing worth mining now because it's hard to compete with BTC at its current block reward. This may all change next year if BTC price doesn't double by the time block reward is halved. The whole thing kinda feeds on itself, think the kindling model (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kindling_model). Bitcoin is strong because it's strong; because a large, expensive network of miners is behind it. Turn that network to a clone coin, and bitcoin's no longer strong, the clone coin is. Well, I'd be very intrigued to see what happened if that did come about. It would certainly be spectacular if nothing else. Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: xeretix on August 16, 2015, 08:00:39 PM Well, I'd be very intrigued to see what happened if that did come about. It would certainly be spectacular if nothing else. I never understood why the block reward isn't adjusted gradually (each consecutive block having a slightly lower reward), rather than by halving it every X number of blocks. Any idea? Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: gentlemand on August 16, 2015, 08:27:27 PM I never understood why the block reward isn't adjusted gradually (each consecutive block having a slightly lower reward), rather than by halving it every X number of blocks. Any idea? I'm sure someone better qualified can come up with that answer. I just post dick jokes. Satoshi certainly had amazing foresight in many areas, block rewards falling off a cliff every few years like clockwork doesn't seem very connected to how the real world works to me but there must be a compelling reason why, or maybe it was just a load easier to code. Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: xeretix on August 16, 2015, 08:57:49 PM I'm sure someone better qualified can come up with that answer. I just post dick jokes. This social experiment can sure use them :) Quote from: Kurt Vonnegut Jr ...The name of the book was The Big Board. It was about an Earthling man and woman who were kidnapped by extraterrestrials. They were put on display in a zoo on a planet called Zircon-212. These fictitious people in the zoo had a big board supposedly showing stock market quotations and commodity prices along one wall of their habitat, and a news ticker, and a telephone that was supposedly connected to a brokerage on Earth. The creatures on Zircon-212 told their captives that they had invested a million dollars for them back on Earth, and that it was up to the captives to manage it so that they would be fabulously wealthy when they were returned to Earth. The telephone and the big board and the ticker were all fakes, of course. They were simply stimulants to make the Earthlings perform vividly for the crowds at the zoo—to make them jump up and down and cheer, or gloat, or sulk, or tear their hair, to be scared shitless or to feel as contented as babies in their mothers' arms. The Earthlings did very well on paper. That was part of the rigging, of course. And religion got mixed up in it, too. The news ticker reminded them that the President of the United States had declared National Prayer Week, and that everybody should pray. The Earthlings had had a bad week on the market before that. They had lost a small fortune in olive oil futures. So they gave praying a whirl. It worked. Olive oil went up. Title: Re: Only $360mio of inflow needed to keep current price and reach next halving! Post by: Elwar on August 17, 2015, 09:37:36 AM Well, I'd be very intrigued to see what happened if that did come about. It would certainly be spectacular if nothing else. I never understood why the block reward isn't adjusted gradually (each consecutive block having a slightly lower reward), rather than by halving it every X number of blocks. Any idea? Easily predictable and accountable money supply. 50/25/12.5 etc. is a lot easier than .000135323 less reward next block. |