Title: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: Peter R on August 26, 2015, 01:08:08 AM I am donating 50,000 bits to this experiment (0.05 BTC). These bits will be divided between 5 lucky participant (chosen at random) if everyone can come to consensus and win!
Here's how the game works: - It takes 100% consensus on the "100%" option to have a 100% chance of winning - ...90% consensus on the "90%" option to have a 80% chance of winning - ...80% consensus on the "80%" option to have a 60% chance of winning … - ...50% consensus on the "50%" option to have a 0% chance of winning - You may change your vote as many times as you like The poll will close when either: (a) consensus has been reached on any one of the options AND at least 40 votes were cast. (b) Poll closes August 28, 2015, 01:08:08 AM UTC with no consensus. If the poll closes with consensus, then I will make a comment in this thread that the poll is officially closed and note the current block height as reported by blockchain.info. We will pick a random number from the block at a height 2 blocks above this one. A random number will be calculated like: rand = 100% (hash of coinbase TX) / 2^256 If rand < % chance of winning Then five people will win 10,000 bits each. To pick the winners, I will hash all of the bitcoin addresses with SHA256 and select the five addresses with a hash closest to the hash of the coinbase TX from above. OTHER RULES: Post your Bitcoin address in a comment. This might be a little messy so I have the right to call off the experiment if the number of votes is vastly different than the number of bitcoin addresses posted. I also have the right to adjust the rules if I realize I screwed something up!! LASTLY: If consensus has been reached and I don't notice it, someone please post a comment along with a screen shot. Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: Peter R on August 26, 2015, 01:30:06 AM I don't see why I can't participate in my own game: 1BWZe6XkGLcf6DWC3TFXiEtZmcyAoNq5BW
Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: BitProdigy on August 26, 2015, 01:32:13 AM 1BnAprNUBWyzawRgqusgoP5TgsmbDVdXmH 1 vote for 90%!
Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: Peter R on August 26, 2015, 01:40:19 AM Here's how I see it:
It would be fairly easy to get 50% consensus but then the payout is nil. We should all pick something > 50%. It would be almost impossible to get 100% consensus (esp. considering trolls) although the payout is highest. We should all pick something < 100%. Where is the sweet spot? Hopefully this experiment tells us something. Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: BitProdigy on August 26, 2015, 01:43:14 AM Here's how I see it: It would be fairly easy to get 50% consensus but then the payout is nil. We should all pick something > 50%. It would be almost impossible to get 100% consensus (esp. considering trolls) although the payout is highest. We should all pick something < 100%. Where is the sweet spot? Hopefully this experiment tells us something. Perhaps clarification would help. I'm not sure what you mean by 100% chance of winning? If we get 100% consensus on the 100% option, what does "100% chance of winning" mean? Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: Peter R on August 26, 2015, 01:46:19 AM Here's how I see it: It would be fairly easy to get 50% consensus but then the payout is nil. We should all pick something > 50%. It would be almost impossible to get 100% consensus (esp. considering trolls) although the payout is highest. We should all pick something < 100%. Where is the sweet spot? Hopefully this experiment tells us something. Perhaps clarification would help. I'm not sure what you mean by 100% chance of winning? If we get 100% consensus on the 100% option, what does "100% chance of winning" mean? It means that the 50,000 bits will be paid out for sure. If, instead, there is 90% consensus on the "90%" option, then the 50,000 bits will be paid out with a probability of 80% (i.e., there's a 20% chance that no one will get the money). Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: achow101 on August 26, 2015, 01:50:36 AM I'm picking 90%. My addy: 16mT7jrpkjnJBD7a3TM2awyxHub58H6r6Z
Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: BitProdigy on August 26, 2015, 01:52:18 AM I'm picking 90%. My addy: 16mT7jrpkjnJBD7a3TM2awyxHub58H6r6Z Peter change your vote to 90%!! :D Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: Peter R on August 26, 2015, 01:54:35 AM I'm picking 90%. My addy: 16mT7jrpkjnJBD7a3TM2awyxHub58H6r6Z Peter change your vote to 90%!! :D I don't know. I think there will be trolls that try to screw up the experiment and 90% will be too hard to achieve. Or people that just forget to come back and change their vote. I think you guys should change to 75%!! We still get a decent pay out with 75% consensus. Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: BitProdigy on August 26, 2015, 01:57:35 AM I'm picking 90%. My addy: 16mT7jrpkjnJBD7a3TM2awyxHub58H6r6Z Peter change your vote to 90%!! :D I don't know. I think there will be trolls that try to screw up the experiment and 90% will be too hard to achieve. Or people that just forget to come back and change their vote. I think you guys should change to 75%!! We still get a decent pay out with 75% consensus. What would the incentive of the trolls be? They stand to have a chance at winning free bitcoin if they help achieve consensus, and the chance is greater if they help achieve 90% consensus. They have no incentive to block consensus. Come over the light side and join us at 90%! :D Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: Peter R on August 26, 2015, 02:01:11 AM I'm picking 90%. My addy: 16mT7jrpkjnJBD7a3TM2awyxHub58H6r6Z Peter change your vote to 90%!! :D I don't know. I think there will be trolls that try to screw up the experiment and 90% will be too hard to achieve. Or people that just forget to come back and change their vote. I think you guys should change to 75%!! We still get a decent pay out with 75% consensus. What would the incentive of the trolls be? They stand to have a chance at winning free bitcoin if they help achieve consensus, and the chance is greater if they help achieve 90% consensus. They have no incentive to block consensus. Come over the light side and join us at 90%! :D Hahaha true. Rational trolls would still vote to help achieve consensus. But are trolls rational? But yourself in the shoes of a troll. They want to cause chaos! :D I will stick to 75% for now but may change my vote later. Remember, we need at least 40 votes in total. At 90% we can only have 4 dissenters. At 75% we can have 10 dissenters and still win bitcoins. Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: AgentofCoin on August 26, 2015, 02:03:31 AM Currently @ 90% - 18JwWGyMqgvkr7XbnUo23aAyHjR2bw2TDJ
Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: BitProdigy on August 26, 2015, 02:04:47 AM Currently @ 90% - 18JwWGyMqgvkr7XbnUo23aAyHjR2bw2TDJ Oh yes we are on our way to free Bitcoins! ;D Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: jonald_fyookball on August 26, 2015, 02:30:52 AM once we vote on the top we can't change it?
Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: ebliever on August 26, 2015, 02:32:48 AM You can Remove Vote and then vote again.
19pMAfnS1prHg34k4ZQHKJrmMPkuqbXDoe Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: TheButterZone on August 26, 2015, 02:33:48 AM 191R9RaC4mUsc4mKAQPY1TBZc5JGRt13zp
Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: BitProdigy on August 26, 2015, 02:36:41 AM once we vote on the top we can't change it? yes you can change it, select "remove vote". Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: Peter R on August 26, 2015, 02:44:34 AM You 90%-ers will never get consensus at that level. Come down to 75% for the good of us all!! :D
Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: jonald_fyookball on August 26, 2015, 02:56:58 AM ok I'm at 90% then. if I win send my coins to Sean's outpost
Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: Peter R on August 26, 2015, 03:02:38 AM ok I'm at 90% then. if I win send my coins to Sean's outpost Why not come to 75% and bring everyone else at 90% with you? This way we can overcome the dissenters with trollish votes at 50 and 55%! Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: BitProdigy on August 26, 2015, 03:04:28 AM ok I'm at 90% then. if I win send my coins to Sean's outpost Why not come to 75% and bring everyone else at 90% with you? This way we can overcome the dissenters with trollish votes at 50 and 55%! Notice that the trolls do not even bother to provide an address and thus have no incentive for consensus. They do indeed seek only chaos lol I think is all a very interesting experiment and am eager to learn of the results in two days. I think 90% can be reached! We shall see! Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: adamstgBit on August 26, 2015, 03:04:36 AM You 90%-ers will never get consensus at that level. Come down to 75% for the good of us all!! :D i think we can do it and there's still time, i'll switch to 75% last min. Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: Peter R on August 26, 2015, 03:07:50 AM I corrected an ambiguity. I had the poll closing in 48 hours but wrote 24 in the post. I made it all consistent with when the poll closes (48 hours).
Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: knight22 on August 26, 2015, 03:10:32 AM Now 90%: 1NXx149VbimyWoCkEkdghuusu1zJkZFdRS
Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: Peter R on August 26, 2015, 03:16:27 AM If the 8 people at 90% move to 75% then we will have the required vote (but we still need to wait for 40 people in total).
However, if the 2 people at 75% move to 90% then we still can't overcome the dissenters. I think 75% is the safer bet to ensure we ratify. Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: BitProdigy on August 26, 2015, 03:21:31 AM You 90%-ers will never get consensus at that level. Come down to 75% for the good of us all!! :D i think we can do it and there's still time, i'll switch to 75% last min. Exactly, all we need is a last minute switch at the end to the winner to hit 90%, and this is why I believe 90% is definitely achievable and why I vote for 90% and everyone else should too. :D Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: Peter R on August 26, 2015, 03:25:35 AM You 90%-ers will never get consensus at that level. Come down to 75% for the good of us all!! :D i think we can do it and there's still time, i'll switch to 75% last min. Exactly, all we need is a last minute switch at the end to the winner to hit 90%, and this is why I believe 90% is definitely achievable and why I vote for 90% and everyone else should too. :D But that's assuming that (a) there is less than 10% trolls (b) that nearly everyone who voted will be paying attention when the deadline draws near Is it worth the risk of not achieving consensus for just better odds of a payout (80% rather than 50%)? Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: knight22 on August 26, 2015, 03:29:18 AM We can't change our vote ???
Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: Peter R on August 26, 2015, 03:31:15 AM We can't change our vote ??? WTF?? The option to change our vote disappeared for me too. I don't know how to get it back. Title: Re: Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus! Post by: Peter R on August 26, 2015, 03:41:45 AM I'm locking this thread as the poll appears to have broken. I reposted here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1162199.msg12244272#msg12244272 |