Modification of Adam's Experiment: Win Bitcoin's If You Can Come to Consensus!

[Peter R]

I am donating 50,000 bits to this experiment (0.05 BTC).  These bits will be divided between 5 lucky participant (chosen at random) if everyone can come to consensus and win!

Here's how the game works:

- It takes 100% consensus on the "100%" option to have a 100% chance of winning
- ...90% consensus on the "90%" option to have a 80% chance of winning
- ...80% consensus on the "80%" option to have a 60% chance of winning
…
- ...50% consensus on the "50%" option to have a  0% chance of winning
- You may change your vote as many times as you like

The poll will close when either:

(a) consensus has been reached on any one of the options AND at least 40 votes were cast.
(b) Poll closes August 28, 2015, 01:08:08 AM UTC with no consensus.

If the poll closes with consensus, then I will make a comment in this thread that the poll is officially closed and note the current block height as reported by blockchain.info.  We will pick a random number from the block at a height 2 blocks above this one.  A random number will be calculated like:

   rand = 100% (hash of coinbase TX) / 2^256

If

   rand < % chance of winning

Then five people will win 10,000 bits each.  To pick the winners, I will hash all of the bitcoin addresses with SHA256 and select the five addresses with a hash closest to the hash of the coinbase TX from above.  

OTHER RULES: Post your Bitcoin address in a comment.  This might be a little messy so I have the right to call off the experiment if the number of votes is vastly different than the number of bitcoin addresses posted.  I also have the right to adjust the rules if I realize I screwed something up!!  

LASTLY: If consensus has been reached and I don't notice it, someone please post a comment along with a screen shot.  

[Peter R]

I don't see why I can't participate in my own game: 1BWZe6XkGLcf6DWC3TFXiEtZmcyAoNq5BW

[BitProdigy]

1BnAprNUBWyzawRgqusgoP5TgsmbDVdXmH 1 vote for 90%!

[Peter R]

Here's how I see it:

It would be fairly easy to get 50% consensus but then the payout is nil.  We should all pick something > 50%.

It would be almost impossible to get 100% consensus (esp. considering trolls) although the payout is highest.  We should all pick something < 100%.

Where is the sweet spot?  Hopefully this experiment tells us something.   

[BitProdigy]

Here's how I see it:

It would be fairly easy to get 50% consensus but then the payout is nil.  We should all pick something > 50%.

It would be almost impossible to get 100% consensus (esp. considering trolls) although the payout is highest.  We should all pick something < 100%.

Where is the sweet spot?  Hopefully this experiment tells us something.   

Perhaps clarification would help. I'm not sure what you mean by 100% chance of winning? If we get 100% consensus on the 100% option, what does "100% chance of winning" mean?

[Peter R]

Here's how I see it:

It would be fairly easy to get 50% consensus but then the payout is nil.  We should all pick something > 50%.

It would be almost impossible to get 100% consensus (esp. considering trolls) although the payout is highest.  We should all pick something < 100%.

Where is the sweet spot?  Hopefully this experiment tells us something.   

Perhaps clarification would help. I'm not sure what you mean by 100% chance of winning? If we get 100% consensus on the 100% option, what does "100% chance of winning" mean?

It means that the 50,000 bits will be paid out for sure.

If, instead, there is 90% consensus on the "90%" option, then the 50,000 bits will be paid out with a probability of 80% (i.e., there's a 20% chance that no one will get the money). 

[achow101]

I'm picking 90%. My addy: 16mT7jrpkjnJBD7a3TM2awyxHub58H6r6Z

[BitProdigy]

I'm picking 90%. My addy: 16mT7jrpkjnJBD7a3TM2awyxHub58H6r6Z

Peter change your vote to 90%!! 

[Peter R]

I'm picking 90%. My addy: 16mT7jrpkjnJBD7a3TM2awyxHub58H6r6Z

Peter change your vote to 90%!!  

I don't know.  I think there will be trolls that try to screw up the experiment and 90% will be too hard to achieve.  Or people that just forget to come back and change their vote.  I think you guys should change to 75%!!  We still get a decent pay out with 75% consensus.  

[BitProdigy]

I'm picking 90%. My addy: 16mT7jrpkjnJBD7a3TM2awyxHub58H6r6Z

Peter change your vote to 90%!!  

I don't know.  I think there will be trolls that try to screw up the experiment and 90% will be too hard to achieve.  Or people that just forget to come back and change their vote.  I think you guys should change to 75%!!  We still get a decent pay out with 75% consensus.  

What would the incentive of the trolls be? They stand to have a chance at winning free bitcoin if they help achieve consensus, and the chance is greater if they help achieve 90% consensus. They have no incentive to block consensus. Come over the light side and join us at 90%! 

[Peter R]

I'm picking 90%. My addy: 16mT7jrpkjnJBD7a3TM2awyxHub58H6r6Z

Peter change your vote to 90%!!  

I don't know.  I think there will be trolls that try to screw up the experiment and 90% will be too hard to achieve.  Or people that just forget to come back and change their vote.  I think you guys should change to 75%!!  We still get a decent pay out with 75% consensus.  

What would the incentive of the trolls be? They stand to have a chance at winning free bitcoin if they help achieve consensus, and the chance is greater if they help achieve 90% consensus. They have no incentive to block consensus. Come over the light side and join us at 90%!  

Hahaha true.  Rational trolls would still vote to help achieve consensus.  But are trolls rational?  But yourself in the shoes of a troll.  They want to cause chaos!

I will stick to 75% for now but may change my vote later.  

Remember, we need at least 40 votes in total.  At 90% we can only have 4 dissenters.  At 75% we can have 10 dissenters and still win bitcoins.  

[AgentofCoin]

Currently @ 90% -     18JwWGyMqgvkr7XbnUo23aAyHjR2bw2TDJ

[BitProdigy]

Currently @ 90% -     18JwWGyMqgvkr7XbnUo23aAyHjR2bw2TDJ

Oh yes we are on our way to free Bitcoins! 

[jonald_fyookball]

once we vote on the top we can't change it?

[ebliever]

You can Remove Vote and then vote again.

19pMAfnS1prHg34k4ZQHKJrmMPkuqbXDoe

[TheButterZone]

191R9RaC4mUsc4mKAQPY1TBZc5JGRt13zp

[BitProdigy]

once we vote on the top we can't change it?

yes you can change it, select "remove vote".

[Peter R]

You 90%-ers will never get consensus at that level.  Come down to 75% for the good of us all!!   

[jonald_fyookball]

ok I'm at 90% then. if I win send my coins to Sean's outpost

[Peter R]

ok I'm at 90% then. if I win send my coins to Sean's outpost

Why not come to 75% and bring everyone else at 90% with you?  This way we can overcome the dissenters with trollish votes at 50 and 55%!