Bitcoin Forum

It will happen.

I'm a long term bull. But in the short to medium term. We are generally going down. Best case (side ways for a while).

Probably hit $133 or so.

Just my smooth-cents.  ;D

Btc cant go below 180$, if it happens all of the bitcoin miners will abandon this project. That means the total collapse of bitcoin.

Whoever behind this project won't let that happen. Even if he/she had to buy his own coins just to raise the price.

uh no.

Price can be unprofitable for a time for miners to shake out the smaller miners.

If it gets below $190 I think there will be a washout.

Why this pessimism mate? We need a strong bitcoin. It is the sign of independence and the symbol the people who believe in the freedom and unmanipulation of the money. If everyone which write about bitcoin will be so enthusiast as you bitcoin will go 10 bucks one after two months.

How is pessimism = price going down?

It is called calling a spade a spade. I'm calling it how I see it. Not pessimistic at all.

Bitcoin is strong. But if bitcoin is only strong because of how many dollars it cost to buy a bitcoin then the focus is off.

If you missed it I said "I'm a long term bull."

It is a strong bad sign of the strongest of bitcoin if the price return in that levels. It is already to low as it is. And predictions which "send" bitcoin at this kind of prices (lower than actual) demonstrate and called pessimism. You have not indicators to do factual and right predictions. Why predict the lower and not the higher price?

I make predictions because I can.

Doesn't make my predictions true.

Time will tell.

And no let's agree to disagree that my prediction is not based on pessimism. It is based on my own personal OPINION.

It's your right to give opinions. But don't call those predictions. Prediction is another thing. Is based in analyse of several facts connected with the phenomenon for which will do that prediction. Giving on opinion is one thing and is called giving thoughts or opinion. Or simple discussing. Giving an prediction is a totally another thing.  ;)

lol don't tell me what I can call a prediction and what I can't.

Who are you to tell me I can call something or not call something?

Let's agree to disagree as you are starting to dig a deeper hole for yourself.  ::)

HERE JUST FOR YOU THE DEFINITION OF THE WORD PREDICTION:

pre·dic·tion
prəˈdikSH(ə)n/
noun
a thing predicted; a forecast.
"a prediction that the Greeks would destroy the Persian empire"
synonyms:   forecast, prophecy, prognosis, prognostication, augury; More
the action of predicting something.
"the prediction of future behavior"

You were the first to bring up the term "prediction" not me. So perhaps you may want to rethink your argument.

This post ^ is the first place the word "PREDICTION" was used.

Yes by you.

If you read my original post I dont even use the word.

 :P

He is likely right though.  Look at the hash rate following the $32 bubble.  It wasn't until the least efficient miners were flushed out that we bottomed at $2.  There is also the sentiment of greed that says Bitcoin isn't useful beyond investment/speculation.

Smoothie mentioned both of these, but you were too focused on his use of the word prediction to see the analyses he is offering.  Now can we discuss these points, or do you just want to argue semantics some more?

Agree. Now that I see all the discussion the term prediction was used by me first. It is my fault. My apologies for put in your words my words.

I also have the feeling the price will go sub $200 again this year. I'm only not so sure if we'll see anything below $150 as that seems highly unlikely. Anyway, my fiat is waiting for it to happen. :)

it has gone below $190 before.. i bought coins at $180 earlier this year .

if bitfinex collapses then you probably will be right ..

I don't think so. If price goes below $190, it should be a "little-time" success for little miner.

It could perfectly happen and there's nothing to fear about it. Since Bitcoin is a self regulated system there will always be someone profiting. If the big miners are mad at the low price, the small miners will come in and take their place. That's how it works. Any way, if you are here holding long term because you know eventually Bitcoin will have invested at least 1% of worldwide fiat, you will not care about 200 breaking again. And it only takes 1% of fiat to move into bitcoin for the price to be about 100K per BTC.

If we break 200 again, it will be barely under 200 and short lived. Too much resistance there.

if it occurs, may be a lot of people who do not wear anymore bitcoin

I think there needs to be a separate subsection of the speculation labeled perma-bulls only, where they can delude themselves into thinking price decreases are NEVER possible.

Anyway, I think most people on here realize there is great potential LONG TERM, but only some can realize there are a lot of challenges to overcome first, and price dips will happen here and there.

My question is this though: How did miners function/operate before the price was above $180?

I think this time the support at $200 will be strong enough to not let it fall any lower. If it does go lower than $200 then it might stay there for a short while.

we need to leave the xt drama behind before we'll see a recovery. the price will surely go down again in the comming days. i only hope not much lower than $200. otherwise it will take a long time to get back the lost ground.

well the volumes and order books of exchanges show that $220 is pretty strong too defo 200$ is pretty unbreakable lol as miners cant mine with decent profit margins :D

I think you mean to say support and not resistance.

Easy: mining difficulty was much much lower

Miners do not have to always be profitable.

Look at precious metal mining. Lots of mining companies are mining at a loss.

I mean in temrs of bitcoin mining theres no possible way transactions alone can maintain the network >//>

How is that subject relevant NOW when there is a block mining reward of 25 BTC currently?

I hear next year only 12.5btc reward mining blocks. Will prices go up or otherwise bitcoin even drop dramatically. so sad to see the price of bitcoin now

The halving will be priced in before the actual halving occurs. This implies but not guarantees a price rise.

It's reaching $235 now and it's only going to increase from there not decrease. The demand for bitcoins has increased and highly doubt it may even touch $200 now.

quoted for posterity

Double-digits are possible. The protocol marches on relentlessly creating new bitcoin whether there's demand for them or not.

All the evidence so far indicates that bitcoin does poorly when the Chinese economy does poorly. Bitcoin is always down when the Chinese markets plunge.
The euro, Japanese yen, and Chinese yuan are all losing purchasing power. It's barely begun. Euro:dollar parity and 140 yen per dollar draw nearer. Even if people spend the same amount of fiat on bitcoin as before, they will end up supporting the price less because their currencies will be worth less.

Those with USD income will experience more purchasing power, but it will be canceled out by the increasing heaviness of their own USD-denominated debt: mortgages, student loans, sovereign debt, etc.

If bitcoin's price was going to break through $300 and stay there, then it would've happened on one of the past three attempts. There's no killer app here that can reverse the macroeconomic picture.

Many overeager bitcoin startups will go out of business. Many longs will be liquidated. (Going short is also dangerous because it doesn't take much money to spike the price and liquidate everyone.)

Eventually the price will go up specially after 2021 when the next (not 2016 one) approaches.
By then fiat based capitalism may be exploding and BTC may experience insane ass uptrends of 6 figures per BTC.

So if I were to have USD income and no debt I would win?

The cost of mining is about $150. If it is below $200 for some time, some miners will be shutdown.

may be you will waiting 2-3 months to get price under 200$
now price stabil at 220-230  and im sure will be up to 250$ :)

Yes. Then you buy tons of commodities + precious metals + BTC and wait.

may be you must ceck again the cost of mining bitcoin at here http://www.coinwarz.com/calculators/bitcoin-mining-calculator
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator

Doesn't matter if some miners will have to drop out. Blocks will take a long time for a while and then difficulty will drop. Then miners will come back. Difficulty has done nothing but go up for 2 years.

Agreed but the price has gone down that much during such a time. I suggest you realize that at this point. We could go down swiftly w/o much resistance at this point, margins could reign supreme. Make a call!

Maximum pain has not been reached.

Miners are still profitable and when they are likely all unprofitable then the pain is going to set in.

Still think price is going to stagnate in the near/medium term.

I hope it will not go down again
maybe if the price can drop below $ 200 would be a lot of people who stopped looking for bitcoin, but I am sure that the big players will not let it happen

They were unprofitable in January.

I am Seeing a logical word after days ...... for long time we break so many supports like $900,800,700,600,500,400,450,400,350,300 .... it's obvious we will break 200 and even 100 and even 50 very soon .

Breaking $200 will be very disappointing for me.
I had factored in a 'worst case' scenario of $200.

well we might see prices in the 100s soon lol it doesn't seem 220 or figures close are strongly held :(

Even if it does reach, there's nothing to worry about as bitcoin is a currency that doesn't keep following a down trend. Patience matters a lot and I've been witnessing it's price fluctuating from $295-$210 since few months but have never gone in loss due to the price. :)

Not really. The difficulty would drop and it'd be easier/cheaper to mine.

I think it has been following a downtrend since about january of 2014.  Yes there have been minor (temporary) support levels, and a few good runups that I can remember, but overall we're in a downtrend, and appear to still be in it.

At the time being it looks like the $200 level may hold, but then again, I thought the $250 level would as well, especially when we ran up to over $300 last month.  I think too many are being squeezed out, so the less people in the market are making greater volatility possible.

True, but look at it this way too….we've been in an uptrend since January 2015 :).

This is something reasonable, if bitcoin price down, "big mining company" will shut down some hardware to reduce electric cost

Not necessarily. The price has been going down for more than a year now and the difficulty has been rising nearly all the time. Large pools are very dedicated, especially the mining farms in China. Says enough.

I hope we hit 133$. I have a lot of dollars I need to buy Bitcoin. :)

Talk about mining company, i think already shut down not need price down. Like ltcgear,cloudminr. mining now is not profitable, if price still below $300

Yes most of the mining people complaining about no profit. Now only bitcoin demand can bring the price above the 300 level but it will take quite some time. May not be soon.

What does it mean ???
till January the prices will remain fluctuating like now and if Bitcoin XT wins the game(never going to happen) then also people will loose their faith in bitcoin and abandon the project.
And if we are going to aim for high prices of bitcoin, then it's not gonna happen before July 2016 i.e. before block halving.

i can only see the demand increase once the block halving has taken place. we are currently nearly less than a year away from the halving. in that time a lot can happen. it will be a rollercoaster ride.

well buy now, because i doubt the price will ever fall so low, falling at 133 would mean falling even lower guaranteed

it's better to stick with the 200 mark as a best low target, you won't get something better as a average value, not talking about random exchange where the price fall to 170 like happened with bitfinex

Yes . we will break $200 very soon and i will buy some coins at $130 very soon ...... i am so happy that i have not any coin at now

What do you mean bitcoin XT win? I don't think so! XT is just issue for now and we will clear that issue soon. All pro XT now will back to bitcoin core

hmm sounding pretty sure there mate lol I don't think we will see under 150 for another 20 years or so lol :D

I don't see it to happen again whatever was few days ago.We will not see again under 190$.Bitcoin's price is a bit stable now although we don't see much buying/investment support at the moment but price will not reach there where many respected member want it to reach.

Under 200$ it can go again easily for very short period of time as we saw in last days.If someone wants to take advantage then should let buy order at around 180$ otherwise will miss the opportunity once again.Temporary drops of price can happen.

I doubt so, bitcoin is growing in popularity so much that any dip will sure allow potential investors to go into the market to buy

Maximum pain has not been reached.

I don't make assumptions about what the price can do anymore. Last summer I didn't believe it could go this low. The price could go anywhere from here. It might never go below 200, or it might go down to 100. The price isn't predictable and it often does the opposite of what everyone expects.

from 160 to 235 is high gain profit from some people
and i think now more people will place huge buy order at 190-200 so if price down to 200 we will go up again to 220-230  :)

:P most have cash on exchanges with open buy orders already id place some at 150 as for split seconds prices do crash and profit is to be made :D

i use that trick too
my 1st buy order at 220$ if i get filled i will place sell order at 230-235
My 2nd buy wall at 200$
and all in buy order at 150-160$  ;)

it will definitely not go under 200 or to 200 dollars i believe bitcoin price will go higher

is likely to decline drastically. but I still want to speculate and hope that will continue the increase. I am very confident ;D

Bulls claiming price can/will not go below a certain price or even claiming that it is impossible...

...you will have a hard time when the market shows you that your certain price is arbitrary...nothing more than hopium. The coming crash (or the chain of crashes) will bail out exactly these people with such a delusion....and afterwards bearmarket could be really done.

Nice trick i must change my buy order to 150 because i see we have big wall in price 200 and i never think price can broken that's wall

oh i hope the price wont go down that much either way i will not sell my btc

I think they're talking about "flash crashes" - very temporary drops in price, typically on only one or a few exchanges. We saw this the other day - BTC/USD on Bitfinex dropped to below $200, but it stayed above that on the other exchanges. A smart trader with orders in place below $200 would have snapped up a bargain!

Funny how every other bust cycle has recovered or even rallied significantly off of its lows, but today's bust cycle is somehow different.

Market trends act like humans bandwagoning onto the next big thing--during its early phases people slowly begin to jump aboard. During the middle phases greater participation from the trading public is seen, and during the late phases mania ensues while the last of the holdouts and amateur speculators finally give in to cupidity and buy (or sell) aggressively. This overzealousness marks the end of the trend. It's at this point that the people who got in near the beginning sell to (or buy from) the public, who are more than happy to satisfy that need.

The fuel for these trends eventually dries up as multiple stabs to support or resistance points see less and less volume and participation. The market still seems bearish or bullish, but the seeds have already been sown for the next move through exhaustion of supply (or demand in an uptrend) and a large transfer of ownership from many to few, or from few to many. ;)

Yes ...... Goood parable ....... the maximum pain is when people will see average range of bitcoin $20-$50

Flash crash? or stable low prices?

good luck with waiting. i hope you have plenty of time as we probably will never see the price reach $130 again. but you're probably trolling.

after down to 160$ im not sure bitcoin will be down lower than it so for people who waiting under 160$ please cancel your buy order and place it to 170-190 $  ;)

For seeing price $100 we just need another 40k selling ...........

So do you think price will go down? I dont think so!
Price look strong in this week and we will up shortly soon. :)

And you know that 40k selling can come from a whale right lol.

This is why the price movements can be manipulated almost by anything or some exchange doing some more insider stuff like we saw bitfnex.

Price can be down, but only temporary the way I see it.

After the halving plus the bitx whole split situation, lets see how it turns out after those bigger events.

I think if its falling, it`ll just fall around that price.

We seem to be barely holding $200ish, so its a matter of risk I would say.. pretty much at this point.

Has to be a flash crash.
There will be a lot of buying once it goes below those levels.

Flash crash in a single market.

price seems pretty stable around $200

Yes since last few days prices are quite stable not much variation. May be it will slowly will break 250 marks soon. ;)

Yeah thats the idea right for the price to recover.

But hopefully people can see it through to buy again, despite being the bitcoin plans on being split and having bitx. I know some people didnt sell off to this reason, but its mainly dealing with what happened to bitfnex.

The stability seems to be around the $230 mark, rather than $200.

I think we will hover around 225 a bit longer, dip 190 again this month and than start a slow rise yet again.. Will be a rough month :(

the cost mining regardless isnt worth it, unless you yourself are the asic producer and selling hardware at the same time.

so you hedge on both sides, intially people who mine are losing and expecting a 5 year return if it goes up or before with optimistic views.

Same like yourself. My projection was always positive until lately after seeing that the price seems to be having difficulty breaching the 300 level. So It's highly possible but i don't think it will stay there for long. There are already a lot of buy orders waiting at sub 200.

No, if the price goes low enough that some miners abandon Bitcoin, the remaining miners make more money. The amount of mining self-adjusts to the price.

We're probably going to see a lot of miners drop out at the halving in 2016. Since miners know that's coming, they've planned their hardware purchases with that in mind. As a miner, you'd like to have your hardware into the profitable portion of its life cycle well before the halving. Expect the hash rate to level off or decline going into the halving.

I don't expect the price to drop below $180. Once the scalability debate is over and something is implemented, we'll see the next rise.

BTC community is full of optimistic People .......

Of course. This is why most of us are here.Because we believe in this technologie. Why you are here if you aren't optimistic or have trust in that tech?

i think this xt drama won't last longer than 2 months. after that we'll definitely see the price go up as we are getting closer and closer to the block halving. but i think we'll see the price go up starting in january or february 2016.

I agree that the drama wont go on forever, but it could be 6 months or so.  I fully expect that the price may go down further during that time, possibly hitting $150 or less.  Not sure if double digits are possible, but you have to know whales are looking at the price weakness right now, and can easily manipulate the price down at a time like this.  Then, just buy back their coins, and wait until the drama is over.  Then, after 6 months or so we can probably look at getting back to $300+

Bitcoin can go below $50 (for example) and the rally that follows will be one you will never forget.

Good point but you must know the probability of failing BTc project is 70% ,, we past away knife's edge 3 weeks ago .....  i think ......

This is what I thought.

If we are already at 231 and holding pretty solid, we only need to get past September and October and we'll start seeing some gains, but contrary to popular belief I hope this is not the case. I need an entire year of a low BTC to collect as much as possible before the inevitable trip to mars that will never come back to earth never again.

May take a year, but I think in the next few months we're gonna see he real bottom.  Not much further down from here as others have stated $180 will be hard to break b/c miners have to hit that number to break even.  If we touch that, I think it will be the real bottom.  But is it just me, or does it seem "big money" is holding out for the time being???

I think we can  see $200 break in this 2015 from their some consolidation will start and a small but technically big rally can be seen with so many good news are jumping in the market about Bitcoin . IBM is starting to implement technically in Bitcoin Exchanges market, like blockchain they are also going to start transaction entrys.

Sorry but I never read anything about IBM doing this. You got a link with some news about this.

If it's so then it would be very very good news for Bitcoin.

NO and never,
Im sure bitcoin price can stable at $220 above

$200/bitcoin is very cheap if you compare with mining cost

It will only after a very big dump but if it happens it will bounce back. Looks indeed like if $220 is the bottom for now.

Whales don't care about miners and what it actually cost them to mine a block. They only look at ways to buy cheap coins. If they manage to dump it below $200 and panic sellers dump it down even more, they get to make a great profit. It's all about money.

You need to factor in cost from a year ago when the difficulty was still low.

mining is not profitable if the price still below $300, i think some trader try to make bitcoin price broken under $200

It's clear that mining is still very profitable at this price or else you'd see miners dropping out the network and hash rate falling which is absolutely not the case

I've given up making price predictions & statements now. I've been made to look an idiot too many times so usually I'd think we won't go sub 200 again but this time I'm just going to shrug my shoulders & say 'I don't know'.

:)

predicting is not something that is very hard to do, just look at the chart bitcoin last few years, perhaps bitcoin could be down to 200 but I think the price will soon rise bitcoin  :)

Reading this topic from a month regularly but got nothing interesting in this ..... When will it hit lower then 200$ ? so i can buy ..

it has been many months that bitcoin price was stable at the range of $220-230 and i think it is safe to assume that breaking the $200 and going lower is not going to be easy so it is not going to happen unless another crappy news like the bitcoin xt happens.

It will happen in October. We will see 195$ at least for one day.

$200mBTC  :-*

nobody knows. That's the cryptoworld. Bitcoin can tomorrow be $1000 or $100. It all depends on the news about bitcoin.

How did you know price will drop to $195 only in one day and what the reason

Same here, Also waiting for sub 200 for ages to buy more :( Guess ill just build my stack a little bit slower ;)

Looking at the volatility of Bitcoin, betting that it will drop to below $200 by October is not a bad bet.
Trying to pick a specific month and saying that we will see $195 for at least one day is a tough call to make.

This is just my thought. Most of the traders are doing same kind of calculations or predictions on price and they will loose all of their money at one point. According to me predicting just based on the chart or graph will not give any one solid results but if any one give prediction based on some facts then we can consider it. Good luck to all who is betting for less than 200 in October

may be it is. buy not now.

I think if the price broke $200 in this year again, bitcoin will have a a suppressed future.

yep price is going down pretty much

 ??? im confused ,price is stable rn, what makes u say itll go <200

The thread is 1 month old. Beside that, Huobi is pumping right now making the Bitcoin price reach $246  :D Sub $200 is very far away and won't happen unless very bad news pops up.

Some people have own prediction but i agree like you said price is stable and look not want to down, pretty strong in range 220-240

I also don't see it going below the 200. The only way is up, even its just a little a week.

Don't worry. We are already at the bottom. The $220-$230 range is very stable and when price tanked below that is was only for a very short period of time and bounced back. Frustrating is that we don't have the buying power to go up to $300 and stay there.

*Bitcoin crashes*

(Pulls out dusty old 2 kh laptop)

*Starts mining*

when a thread is created, maybe the price is approaching $200. yes if the price is below $200 will not last long then will go up quickly and will be stable again at the price of $220-240

We will see $200 again for sure but I'm not sure how much it will be broke by and for how long. Maybe 190's for a day then bounce back to $210-$220 same day.

I think this thread create after bitfinex try to dumping a price and didn't take a long, the price get rebound back up

I am happy that the price has been increased today.
Simply i like the green color especially in graph, it does increase the market cap.
Today it was increased for 5.5$ - 6$ and it is pretty good, i don't want to see it again in $200.

Well not very optimistic thought you have there, and I'm sure the value of it will rise soon, lets just be hopeful and continue believing in it.

Maybe but whatever going to happen I believe it is always meant to be, I guess that when it will break up to $200 some people would benefit in it.

Just look out for a stack of shorts on bitfinex again xD

Long term trend matters.

i think the trend is to go UP. at least it seems so

I dont think so... we dont see 200 again

Traders say that Bitcoin's true bottom did not reveal itself yet. This would mean that we would see it go under its low price collapse. I think the amount was 170 and it was dumped down to 150 quite a bit.

According to them, before that the price will never be truly reliable or can become stable. But who knows, maybe that 170 was the true botton. *shrug*

Yes correct as of now trend looks like going up but if any bad news again then surely this time it may go below 200 mark.

no we will break 500$ again  ::) :D

at some point in the future, yes. definitely not this year. we'll be lucky if we hit $299 this year as we've seen plenty of drama this year. next year is a new start.

Yup, there is a (very slow) uptrend. As long as we stay above $220, I am comfortable.

Because of that resistance to cross 250 mark if any slight bad news in the market then this time it will go below 200 mark

Let me fix it for you:

"noway we will break 500$ again."

We were quite lucky to achieve $300 this year, but I doubt that we can surpass that range. Anyhow, the trend seems to go up from here, albeit a rather slow rise.

personally, I see a lot of benefit in having Bitcoin become more stable in price. We don't the real organic demand to make informed valuations on this asset, and therefore, until we have wider adoption.

The next 3 months before January are key to see what happens. The line between the start of an steady rise of crumbling below 200 is at play right now. Hopefully good enough news create a bullish climate. At the end of the day I don't really care since cheaper Bitcoin mean more millions in 10 years, but I would like some xmas presents and a more expensive BTC would allow me to withdraw a smaller amount so I don't feel bad after purchasing some bullshit with it due the consumerist xmas spirit.

Well i think the opposite what smoothie is pretending.
The price normally should increase at least from the next year.
Because there will be a 50% less in reward from the block.

I think statistically and with marketing stock trend and all that jaz, its more likely to see it drop quite a bit before it stabilize and truly start slowly raising. And also there's always normal up and downs. Saying there will be no more downs is kind of. Impossible :S

The drops will be always with us lol, but in generally i hope to see it that the price will increase.
Ups and downs but at the end the price to be more than it is now. (~240 USD)
Maybe we will reach again ~$200 but it should be also a jump.

The price is quite interesting right now. We haven't seen much time around ~200 most likely because the organic support around those area's are quite strong.

We seem to be in a (modest) uptrend now.
$220 would be a support level.

Well i am good at this price at the moment ~240 USD.
But i don't like when i see downs in the bitcoin price chart (and i hate the red color)
I don't think that it will reach again $200 this month.

We have 2 big points, FBI auctions and BTC from Gox, if the price still upper 200$ we should see higher prices soon

FBI auctions until now have not had a negative impact on price.
The buyers usually have some long-term plans and don't dump the purchased coins immediately.

When the FBI overhang is cleared, price might rise.

When will the last coins be sold?

They said before 2016 Christmas but I don't know if this info is still accurate.

It is still accurate: (http://www.usmarshals.gov/news/chron/2015/100515.htm) 

This seems to be an interesting auction,
But the value of these bitcoins reaches around ~11,000,000 USD.
Maybe the price can drop to 200$ if these are sold for a cheaper price.

Let see the price of bitcoin when the overhang is cleared.

The price today has been increased about +5$.
Which is pretty good for the market, but i don't want to see it dropping after that auction ends.
Maybe it's my first time that i see this kind of auction but that needs lots of documents and 100k deposits, pretty high.

Agree with you, it's over who want to buy bitcoin in cheap price and now you will never seen price under $220. But now price still in the lowest level and i think we still can get profit if buy it now ;)

The price could drop below $220 briefly.

Long term holders will surely get a nice return on their investment if they buy now. The only thing you need to have is a good bit of patience.

Definitely still a good price to accumulare more coins imo.
$220-$230 is a pretty solid bottom so if someone is interested in buying he is having good times at the moment.

I've stopped making bold predictions now after being wrong a couple of times. So I don't know if we will dip below 200 again, I hope not. I think I can confidently say that these are still cheap coins though & the price will go a lot higher than it currently is at some point in the next year or two.

Compared to future price, it is cheap now.