Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: zby on September 10, 2015, 10:28:09 AM



Title: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: zby on September 10, 2015, 10:28:09 AM
Apparently the coinwallet stress test have been going on since yesterday: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1175321.0 They give out private keys for accounts with huge numbers of inputs counting that someone reading it will generate the huge transactions. Have any of these huge transactions been generated? How is the network coping with them?

This could push the price down in a big way - but it looks quiet so far - so maybe the effect will be the opposite - as the network proves robust.

Personally I think that the network will survive and the average fees will increase. The gigantic transactions will possibly stay in the backlog for some time, because miners will not have much incentives to put them into the blockchain (and lose fees from other transactions) - but everything else will not be delayed much because miners will not have any problem with other transactions. So yeah - there might be an initial flashcrash because of the uncertainty and doubt - but it should bounce hard once that clears.


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: Ibian on September 10, 2015, 11:11:33 AM
https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions

/yawn


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: XCASH on September 10, 2015, 12:06:15 PM
They had to ban giveaways here because the amount of addresses getting posted here for free coins was stress testing this forum. I hope the same number of people don't try to claim those free coins and do the stress testers jobs for them. All the coins in the giveaway are composed of dust transactions from the last stress test, and transferring them will take up excessive amounts of block space.


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: Wardrick on September 10, 2015, 12:09:09 PM
They had to ban giveaways here because the amount of addresses getting posted here for free coins was stress testing this forum.

No it was because the giveaway threads kept getting bumped to the top of their section. They were basically paying people to bump their threads.


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: lorylore on September 10, 2015, 12:33:38 PM
https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions

/yawn

It's not a huge number of unconfirmed transaction.
I think that the price of bitcoin at the stress test period will maybe decrease.
Why? Because people will not buy, because it can never reach their destination address if the fees are normal.


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: Ibian on September 10, 2015, 12:47:40 PM
https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions

/yawn

It's not a huge number of unconfirmed transaction.
I think that the price of bitcoin at the stress test period will maybe decrease.
Why? Because people will not buy, because it can never reach their destination address if the fees are normal.
It's a normal level of unconfirmed transactions. There is nothing going on that matters. If the price moves it won't be over this.


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: Herbert2020 on September 10, 2015, 04:36:38 PM
it is better to remove any link to that thread in order to prevent any more views for that shameful thread.

https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions

/yawn
blockchain.info is returning this error again like last time  >:(:
"Maximum concurrent requests for this endpoint reached. Please try again shortly.


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: AtheistAKASaneBrain on September 10, 2015, 04:41:01 PM
Well, unless the stress test doesn't start being stressful soon, it will prove two things: The demand for a QUICK OR ITS DOOMSDAY type of blocksize increase schelude is insane, and two, it does nothing to the price, in fact its going up since a while ago again.


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: LFC_Bitcoin on September 10, 2015, 07:28:49 PM
The stress test won't impact on the price either positively or negatively. If the price makes a significant move either way I'm pretty sure it'll be nothing to do with the stress test.


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: trafficolaa on September 10, 2015, 07:32:42 PM
I also think stress test would not impact on the bitcoin price because it is stable at this level and in my opinion that stress test don't have any meaning for person who love bitcoin.


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: amiryaqot on September 10, 2015, 07:50:53 PM
The stress test won't impact at price because majority of the people don't aware about this on going stress test, price will be stay remain stable at current price range.


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: Itun on September 10, 2015, 09:02:26 PM
There actually aren't that many unconfirmed transactions right now.

Prices would only start showing effects of this if there ever is a 30 day backlog which I highly doubt will be.


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: --Encrypted-- on September 10, 2015, 09:12:02 PM
I think the stress test will have a positive impact on the price. I just don't know how big it will be.
the reason is a simple one. some people will get their btc transaction to exchanges delayed because they are unaware of the stress test. that means less dumps.


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: Itun on September 10, 2015, 09:16:36 PM
I think the stress test will have a positive impact on the price. I just don't know how big it will be.
the reason is a simple one. some people will get their btc transaction to exchanges delayed because they are unaware of the stress test. that means less dumps.

Lol that's one way to think of it.

But are the vast majority of bitcoin users that news-ignorant?


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: --Encrypted-- on September 10, 2015, 09:27:38 PM
Lol that's one way to think of it.

But are the vast majority of bitcoin users that news-ignorant?

I don't know. that's why I said this
Quote
I just don't know how big it will be.

added that part just before I posted. someone have to put their faith in humanity.  ;D


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: zby on September 11, 2015, 05:58:35 AM
https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions

/yawn

Now it is 21078 with total size of  55418 (KB) - so it looks like it grows and if that goes on for some time this can become a problem.

It was kind of obvious that the backlog will build up and that this will start not at once - but after people figure out how to use the published keys and generate those huge transactions. The only question is how miners will react - if they quickly adjust and just ignore these transactions then this should settle down nicely. And if people start paying any fees - it it would be in the interest of the miners to ignore the huge transactions - because they lose fees from other transactions if they include them. Theoretically it is all very well balanced - but it depends on the miners now and some people can still panic seeing the backlog.


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: Amph on September 11, 2015, 07:17:00 AM
I think the stress test will have a positive impact on the price. I just don't know how big it will be.
the reason is a simple one. some people will get their btc transaction to exchanges delayed because they are unaware of the stress test. that means less dumps.

another one is that some users will not sell any bitcoin, because they will not send any, anywhere, this mean less dumping

but it would be, principally an isolated thing, the majority will trade regularly


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: randy8777 on September 11, 2015, 11:12:41 AM
I think the stress test will have a positive impact on the price. I just don't know how big it will be.
the reason is a simple one. some people will get their btc transaction to exchanges delayed because they are unaware of the stress test. that means less dumps.

another one is that some users will not sell any bitcoin, because they will not send any, anywhere, this mean less dumping

but it would be, principally an isolated thing, the majority will trade regularly

the users who don't plan to move their coins due to the test will surely do so eventually. so the dumping stage will be moved away from us for a short while. but it's just temporarily.


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: MF Doom on September 11, 2015, 12:07:40 PM
I think the stress test will have a positive impact on the price. I just don't know how big it will be.
the reason is a simple one. some people will get their btc transaction to exchanges delayed because they are unaware of the stress test. that means less dumps.

another one is that some users will not sell any bitcoin, because they will not send any, anywhere, this mean less dumping

but it would be, principally an isolated thing, the majority will trade regularly

theres always those who are seemingly always ready to dump at the first sign of a problem or bad news though.  I think at some point during the "stress test" (its going on all month I think?) there will be a hiccup and there will be some dumping.  THAT may be a good time to pick up some "cheap coins"


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: LMGTFY on September 11, 2015, 12:11:18 PM

theres always those who are seemingly always ready to dump at the first sign of a problem or bad news though.  I think at some point during the "stress test" (its going on all month I think?) there will be a hiccup and there will be some dumping.  THAT may be a good time to pick up some "cheap coins"

The scheduled stress test was supposed to. The new "not-at-all-a-stress-test-it's-a-benevolent-give-away", however... well, I guess that'll go on until all dust has been swept or we've all lost interest!


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: Hugroll on September 11, 2015, 01:08:51 PM
the stress test won't have any impact on the price. bitcoin is handling the transactions extremely well.


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: Q7 on September 11, 2015, 02:41:32 PM
Usually uncertainty will lead to price drop. So does revealing weaknesses in the system and how easily it gets manipulated. However i may be wrong as seen in the last stress test. Price was up most of the time


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: natewelt on September 12, 2015, 12:26:06 AM
How many unconfirmed transactions are there during normal times? Looks like over 30k now...


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: Itun on September 12, 2015, 12:37:44 AM
I don't know if the "stress test" ended yet

but prices don't seem to be really affected at all


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: biggus dickus on September 12, 2015, 12:38:17 AM
How many unconfirmed transactions are there during normal times? Looks like over 30k now...

I'm not sure but I know it's well below 10k. I think it's usually about 2 or 3k. People weren't happy when it went over 10k during the last stress test. This stress test/giveaway is building up more unconfirmed transactions than any of the previous ones, and coinwallet.eu don't even have to pay for servers to do it with  this time. Their strategy of claiming their stress test is a giveaway is working well.


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: ssmc2 on September 12, 2015, 12:38:47 AM
"stress test" is a fuckin' joke


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: natewelt on September 12, 2015, 12:50:36 AM
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions

transactions are jumping too which obviously makes sense


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: PolarPoint on September 12, 2015, 01:51:15 AM
The stress attack is confirming that the bitcoin network is robust. There will be delays when network is under stress. It will not breakdown. So if this attack is going to affect user confidence and the price, I would say the direction should be upward.


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: frenulum on September 12, 2015, 04:02:57 AM
The network has done better than some suspected. Maybe the price will go up soon.


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: Ibian on September 12, 2015, 11:18:05 AM
The relevant question is how much are regular transactions delayed. I'm not getting any slowdowns so far.


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: zby on September 17, 2015, 03:16:00 PM
The network has done better than some suspected. Maybe the price will go up soon.

I agree - now it should bounce back on the relief.


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: --Encrypted-- on September 17, 2015, 03:28:22 PM
btw the stress test didn't go as expected.
they canceled their original plan to create the 1 month backlog and did something else that have too little effect to be called a stress test.


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: victoryboy on September 17, 2015, 03:39:44 PM
btw the stress test didn't go as expected.
they canceled their original plan to create the 1 month backlog and did something else that have too little effect to be called a stress test.
This means we should be ready for another stress test soon as last one didn't go as they planed ? By the way stress test will not effect the price of bitcoin.


Title: Re: How will the stress test effect the price?
Post by: --Encrypted-- on September 17, 2015, 03:48:48 PM
btw the stress test didn't go as expected.
they canceled their original plan to create the 1 month backlog and did something else that have too little effect to be called a stress test.
This means we should be ready for another stress test soon as last one didn't go as they planed ? By the way stress test will not effect the price of bitcoin.

well if there's another then the ones who will be doing it might not be coinwallet. the reason they canceled their original plane was because some legal pressure.

about the price... I guess we'll never know for sure.