Bitcoin Forum

Sharing an idea I've already posted elsewhere but heck, why not have it here too.

Chart should be self explanatory I think, heres bitstamp on log price scale, 1 week candles.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/2rkAcGR2/

In log price chart there is a well defined bull channel, shown in green which goes back to 2012 (and possibly earlier if MtGox data were available). Recent spike up to $500 ended exactly on midpoint of the uptrending channel (supporting the validity for the trendlines). Other evidence for these trendlines is provided by the upper trendline of the channel which supported bitcoin multiple times while it was in bubble territory before finally giving way as the price went on to reach its post bubble low.

The recent spike is reminicent of ‘mini’ bubble in bitcoin in 2012 before the huge bull moves began.

So far horizontal resistance at $320 is still holding. If it fails then price should find solid support at around $270 ish which will be a great place to go long if it gets that low, with sell stop under the channel.

With bitcoin already very depressed after the collapse of the last bubble there is plenty of room on the upside. Bitcoin can get past previous all time highs while still in the channel, before even getting into crazy bubble territory.

For fun I’ve shown possible path price might take as the halving mania and price pump begins to take hold using some black arrows.

Comments welcome.

Thanks

BTW This is a self moderated thread but I doubt I'll be doing any moderation

I must say that I do agree with your assessment. It was about the time to end this 2 year downtrend and we did end it with the style with the last run up to a $500.

Now after some stabilization there is only one way in my opinion and this is up! Add to this all of the upcoming events in the next year and especially the halving and I think that the new highs are coming to us during 2016!

Funny to see that the run to 500 didn't even cross the middle green line yet. There is still soo much headroom for bitcoin these days, not funny!

Let's enjoy the next price rise! :)

you might be right considering that price slowly is staring to climb again few dollars per jump
we might have some bigger price change in next few weeks

I was waiting for loads of comments about Technical Analysis being shit and sock puppet accounts telling me bitcoin is going to zero ? whats going on? are bears turning into bulls ? Have they given up?

Bitcoin is taking quite a strong bounce up off the horizontal support, starting to look like this mini bubble correction might not get much below $320

Log chart with 1 day candles gives closer view

https://www.tradingview.com/x/qcBf97tS/

I remember this from the last bubble where you wait for a dip to buy in which never comes. Wonder if its going to start getting like that ?
edit - Although it seems a bit too early for that yet I think.

I agree the price of bitcoin has been consolidated for some time. It is time for the price to go higher soon.

I love waking up to big green candles!!!! The trend is your friend and the trend since January is up!  Im thinking about getting the old moon suit back out!!

Technical analysis is shit....but like a broken clock it is right sometimes and I hope you are right here!

There will not be enough coins for everyone.
Dusting off my moon boots. 8)

http://www.moon-boot.com/images/w/moon-boot_moonboot-we-monaco-felt_schwarz_black.jpg

Its nice to see bitcoin price going up. But please don't dump it on next week. I prefer it grows slowly and not going up and down in few days.

Yep! Time to sell  :P

Honestly though, I don't really like that channel. Two points on the bottom makes for an unreliable channel base line. Basically, it can be moved infinitely until it works. The true channel bottom (which had 4 or 5 bounces on it) was broken nearly a year ago. We haven't even retested the underside of it, So upside is a great possibility, but to automatically assume we are heading to new ATH's is a bit premature.

I do think a 50-61.8% retrace of the entire bear is in order, but definitely not guaranteed. The top may have been the $500 high and we are still trying to figure out the oscillations before finishing the bear.

I remember the channel you are talking about, I used to call it the 'long term channel' or something like that. It looked particularly good on charts where MtGox data is also available and was a big blow to bulls when it finally gave way. This is just me honestly looking at the new trend on a new chart with recent data, which I'm seeing as bullish. Might be wrong, but this is my speculation.

My arrows projecting at the end is based on trend holding and a halving mania occuring next year. Maybe instead of that there will be a collapse because of scaling issues and XT takeover of the blockchain or something. Who knows?

edit: Just to add I personally judge bullish outcome as more likely and when bitcoin gets bullish it really gets bullish and there aren't many bitcoins to go around for something like this which has global attention.

The TA isn't that good imo but the message is clear.

As I see it we have some good indicators
1. Very long bear period that must end someday.
2. 1w log chart has an EMA that clearly gives a bull signal and has held for >1 week.
3. Optimism in the media and forums
4. >5 year Existance of the currency
5. Halving coming
6. More infrastructure and investors
Etc.

Buy your bitcoins while they are cheap!!!!!

That is all true, and whereas I agree that we managed to reverse the down trend that started after Mt. Gox crash, I still believe a solid testing of the support line around $300 (here shown as the lower band of the uptrend channel) is more than due. therefore I believe we will stay around $350 till the end of the year, at least.
As for the halving event, that is definitely the fundamental event of 2016 for Bitcoin, but I hope to get some more fundamental support to fuel the next leg up. I still think it is too early to speak about halving effect at today's price level, but soon it will get noticed.

Bitcoin cant go down, that would look really bad. People won't buy if they knew the possibility of it going around 200s 100s so it will be a stale mate. Vise versa is people would buy up all the cheap coins because media only works so much.

Bitcoin has ZERO fundimental reason to not go down - in fact, the current news is mostly NEGATIVE indicating a very high probability it WILL go down over the next few months.

 Market analysis only works on MATURE markets, Bitcoin is too small and too immature for it to have any real meaning.


 Note that the recent surge was due to ONE NEWS EVENT in China, per all indications - the announcement by BTCC (and other Chinese markets) that they were going to start taking Fiat Currency payments directly again.


 We're still dealing with the aftereffects of THAT one big announcement and the instability it introduced to the overall Botcoin market.

What I mean specifically is that all these investors and startups around it are pretty big people, I doubt they will let it look like that.

If you know it is going down you can still make money by going short...

What do you mean that it can't go down? Of course, it can, the same way it can go up, or stay in the horizontal trend. One thing is what you want the price to do, and the other is what may happen. What I am saying here is that from the TA viewpoint a retest of the recent support is very probably and would be very healthy for the technical indicators. A break below $300 would be very negative, though I think it is less likely now.

I agree we will see a sudden drop before going sky high. This will screw over the weak hands. Why because it always seems to happen.

 There is no mechanism to go short on Bitcoin.

 Yet another indication of how immature the market for Bitcoin is.

There are at least 3 mechanisms to short Bitcoin. Keep up

Normally I pay most attention to longer timescales but this fork on the 4 hour chart has me interested at the moment.

Looks like bitcoin is failing to get above resistance might take a dip down towards the area marked with a circle

https://www.tradingview.com/x/bmRIOAJe/

Nice bullish fork to follow though.

Update

Bitstamp with 4hour candles

https://www.tradingview.com/x/kKZ1eqM9/

The price didn't drop to bottom of fork as per my last update, instead breaking upwards through some levels of resistance. However this slope looks valid. Bitcoin more primed than I thought.

In case anyone is interested in how the fork is defined heres a zoomed out view using 1 day candles.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/BaGKWbd8/

I'm still wondering if there will be a bear phase retesting bottom of the channel mentioned in my Opening Post. But $320 looks like might be solid as a floor

Anyway I consider that my idea of bitcoin being primed for lift off looks valid. In this thread I will continue to test that idea.

Hold or trade with caution.

From my blog..



I have a sneaky feeling bitcoin’s current rise is too much too soon and will soon correct. I could be wrong so trade with caution.

More info here.

https://afbitcoins.wordpress.com/2015/12/11/hodl-or-trade-with-caution/


Not getting much response on this thread anymore so thinking to sign off with this. In closing, I still think bitcoin is primed for huge bull moves early next year. Safest play is HODL

Happy to have you over at my thread whenever. Please continue to share your charts. Always been a fan (of your blog too)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1161207.480

Hey great analysis we appreciate your charts here as fellow TA's.  Hopefully BTC sets a Base here and we challenge $500 soon

You can go short in some bitcoin exchanges. Some exchange provides very high leverage. It is a dangerous game.

Ah well, since this thread is still hanging around I'll post another update.

Bull fork still very much in play. Heres 4hour log chart

https://www.tradingview.com/x/gVOmtkH8/

Bitcoin finding resistance on one of the trendlines, looks like it wants to break up and test the middle line of the fork again which was where it reached on the last spike the other day.

Heres zoomed out view of same chart for perspective.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/gGrnBRAn/

Outlook bullish

The price is around $430 for about 4 weeks now. It is quite a stable period in terms of bitcoin price action. Shall we call it priming?

Yes, it is priming still, even more primed than ever. Once the ignition button is hit... boom goes the dynamite.

i think the correction already happened, because the 400 mark withstood two times already, remember that we went two times to 470-500 range, and still no sign of return to sub 400

the market is correcting toward the 400-450 range, so the next natural step is to break 500, it could happen in 1 month or less

On my opening post I showed a rough projection of future price using some arrows in which I included a kind of fake dead cat bounce. I think this is what this is we see now. Or put another way Bear trap. Price may drop further but not enough to satisfy bears and soon enough bull impulse will win. I doubt it will get far below $400. II could be wrong of course but my own money is where my mouth is and bitcoins I accumulated below $300 are not in danger now.

Meanwhile halving is drawing ever closer.

I think the price is quite stable now. It is difficult to accumulate below $300. Even if the price drop below $300, the volume will be thin.

Ah maybe I wasnt clear.  not waiting for price to drop below $300, I dont think theres much chance it goes below $400 in fact. I am thinking new speculative bubble is quite likely on the horizon.

sure it is, maybe not this month but for next it will start and then we will see what will happen and where it will stop before dropping and stabilizing again

We might finally be in the slow and steady rise phase, which if we are means bitcoin is finally stabilising and gaining wider adoption. If so then it will be slow but we should keep on climbing to dizzy new highs. I dont know if anyone is wanting to dump at this price now since its been holding so strong.

from everything that looks like this its true
we are in stable range and im hopping for slow but stable rise in price before halving and then stabilize in some optimal range for it

I'm not sure price has finished correcting yet, might still see another dip towards $400

When there is such a dip towards or below the $400 mark, the time will be brief. Then the price will resume upwards.

Thats along the lines I'm thinking too that there should be strong support on the bottom of that fork. In fact due to slope moving up that support is probably at about $410 now.

That also goes in line with my understanding of the current price action. I see the support cluster between $350 and $400 that should provide support yet once again, in case we decide to test the support zones. It seems pretty likely we see such a test, as too many people around is already setting their minds on halvin, that is still relatively far away.

Down 6% as I write, can't tell on my chart as theres a glitch in tradingview but i think bottom of the bull fork has been breached. Might fall a way further yet over coming weeks. I'm thinking about $320 as absolute floor unless it rebounds before then. Bitcoin primed idea as described on OP still valid though.

its sure right seem like new range now is around 400 and falling seem to be way now and maybe preparing for jump
also this might be reason why several days all markets in world collapse and lower max buy price for 10%
btc seem to follow this 10%

Wow look at that drop, straight out the bottom of my pitchfork.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/5MjBjaJc/


As always zooming out a bit gives a bit of different perspective.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ayd5OC8N/

Until I see price conclusively below that lower trendline (currently) at $320 for me bull mode is still on.

yea but seem like after this crash price is stable fo the moment at least off course this doesn't means anything price can easily go down also it can be over 400 again

Strange after this fall price will sliwly go up over 400 again seem like it was needed to go sub 400 for something big to happen

Yes. The bullmarket is still on, even if BTC falls to $285, looking at the bigger picture, this could still still play out as a likely test of extreme lower limits of bull trend.

But what this price action proves, is what I told you earlier in this thread.

"Your Pitchfork TA, sucks!"

Get rid of it. You clearly aren't able to recognise correct conditions in which to apply it, and it is only filling your head full of delusion.

I prefer this pitchfork:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/DNTqnmO0/

Hi Mat, thanks for sharing your analysis. But. That pitchfork served its purpose and didnt suck.   >:(  :D In fact was amazing how often it predicted key turning points including the massive drop when bottom didn't hold and the high point when it touched the mid line of the fork.  

However it is now most likely consigned to the dustbin you'll be glad to know.

Ok..it worked until it didn't....

But...based on what it was telling you, you were forecasting ultra bullish progression in the midst of a bearish storm brewing.

I also predicted a bearish phase which would look like a dead cat bounce which would turn out to be a bear trap. Perhaps this is it. See arrows on my chart on OP.

Maybe I'm right maybe wrong but I still think good chance there will be another bubble mania and new all time highs kicking off at some point this year.

edit: btw thanks for your opinions, despite my initial annoyance the way you rejected my fork I've come to respect your opinions, your call for a dump after looking at Bitstamp and others have been good calls.

I would call that consolidation. Maybe the previous rise was too quick. It just needs some excuse to drop the price.

Price is almoust reached before this drop i sure hope that from now price will go high

Nice to hear.

I want to hear as many folks as possible say shit like this, when I finally find a good entry point for my massive short trade down to ~$310.

Problem with this place though, is EVERYONE thinks Bitcoin is going UP, All the fucking time....


....need to find me a bit more of a representative barmometer of 'public opinion' on Bitcoin.

If you're looking for something to short perhaps this

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ii7F9cMj/

we still have lot to see this year but personally this 400 range is currently high dont think that in next month or two will change a lot
also lot of taking about block size change and halving are here and all think i will be boom for price but last halving boom happen few months after halving

There is no catalyst for the price to change a lot in the next few weeks. Maybe when we know clearly the 2MB block size enhancement, the price will react.

Quite interesting fractal similarities in Bitstamp chart

https://www.tradingview.com/x/dzVPBT2O/

We're nearly at the point of the big arrow on my opening post. Is bitcoin nearly ready to pop?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/vY403pwv/

from look of thing seem like we are on the right track but we don't need to rush things here don't we

This graphic suggest that we are going to see that and i hope that we will

The bitcoin price is consolidating for the last three months. If there is a good news, the price will rise a lot.

I also think so. If the SegWit is implemented in the next four weeks, the price will go up at least 15%.

price is on the rise today around 10$ in past week was 1-2$ so this might be that we are expecting some bigger change i just hope if we hit 450 this time price wont go down again to 380-390

If the price rises slowly, say 0.1% per day for the next few months, the price will not go to 380 again.

If the bitcoin price stays around 450 dollars for a few more weeks, I think that is very good priming process.

Consolidation after price rise is good for absorbing the profit taking and prepare for the next price rise.

The consolidation after the last year's rise has last quite long. So the average cost of the bitcoin has risen.

Any time now would be good

https://www.tradingview.com/x/9MB1dqib/

Missed your updates my friend, but why especially (Any time now would be good) ?

Misplaced optimism, I fear. There's no sky-rocketing any more. We'll lurch from $10 price rise/fall every few days until the halving in July, maybe up to 600 if we're lucky. After July, we'll see price collapse to 300-350. There's way too much expectation of rise to the moon, don't forget bitcoin always does the opposite of your expectations.

I think you are right in short term, I'm anticipating that trendline won't hold. But I can wait. There are other factors that can or will come into play. Stock market crash, negative interest rates. etc. I think it much more likely bitcoin will rise than fall but maybe not as steep as my previous ultra bull predictions

maybe maybe not last time same prediction were maid and few months later we had biggest high in btc price so far
i will be patience this time i will not rush like then

Based on that picture, the new all time high will be in late 2017. That is quite far away for most of us.

completely forgot about this thread, seems to be pretty accurate still.

let's see if it stays that way.

Thanks zimmah, not accurate anymore though. Bull channel I was looking at has been invalidated, I wonder if eth effect has something to do with it.  So I guess I need to re-evaluate my idea a little bit.

At the moment I've turned my attention to this wedge, and also exploring the idea of this bullish fork.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/sLXGINke/

There are people forecasting that bitcoin halving will be a bearish event this time. My current opinion is still that bitcoin is currently one of the best investments there is. Although not playing out how I guessed at the start of the thread I still think the general idea of huge rise is still very possible. However I am prepared for a shakeout or bearish move before it really kicks off. That wedge could break downwards. No-one knows really but time will tell.

IMO, it's not that it's a bearish event, it's more that it's not as much of a guaranteed mega bullish event that many think. I think there is still a good chance of a decent rally, but it may or may not all be done before the halving similar to what LTC did. It is also arguable that the last halving had less bearing on the 2013 rally's than it's given credit for. Above all, because halvings have less effect on the new supply with every subsequent event, and front running the expectation of a rally, each one should have a dampened effect compared to the last. When we halve from 3.25BTC to 1.625 BTC, the supply shock will be much less noticeable.

I know everyone has seen my chart from a few days ago... In my chart, we are still in a bear market. A counter trend rally (wave-B) of a bear market. In bear markets, good news/events are perceived as "meh, at least it's not bad news" and cause things like small rally's or slowing the descent. It's akin to how bad news is perceived in a bull market, just slows the boil a little bit.

These are my thought's not yours, on the morning X

When I opened this thread bitcoin was at about $320, now almost doubled and still going up. Finally the big moves I was predicting back then are happening as forecast, a little later but not much than I expected.

So how high will this spike go? A brief spike above $1000 is possible, followed by lots of doubt and fall in price before the real speculative bubble then begins. Lets see

I think the price will fluctuate around the $780 range for a few weeks before the halving, then it will rise to $1000.

Banks are hating Bitcoin because the value is going to rise more and more and it is also becoming more popular so that is nice for the currency itself.
And the transaction cost are also much lower than the banks and it happens also much faster so that is the nice thing of Bitcoin.

If the banks use the bitcoin, it will cut their operating cost quite lot. They are evaluting at the moment. If they are allowed to use it, they will use it.

Banks are there to make the money. They will use anything allowed by the regulatory to make profits.

If the banks can make more money by providing service with bitcoin, they will lobby the authority to do that.

The banks are adopting the block chain technolgy to cut the operating cost. If they use bitcoin, they can cut cost further.

Just noticed my thread has been bumped so might aswell post a chart! Thanks for keeping my thread going :)

Heres 1week log chart on Bitstamp

https://new.tradingview.com/x/R1OTeGtb/

My take on it is that there are two mini bubbles in this bull trend. The first was the spike to $500 the last was the spike up past $700. At the moment we are still correcting from that last bubble, I think bitcoin will probably stay a bit flat or down perhaps until September or later.

Ultimately with supply halved, and possibility of stock market collapse, economic crisis, bank bailouts and all that stuff still looking like it could easily happen, I still think bitcoin has potential to achieve great new highs in the longer term.

Although not following my initial predictions/guesses, when I started this thread bitcoin was at about $320 now at roughly $750, not too bad so far.  

For anyone that may be interested my thoughts on recent gold, silver and bitcoin post Trump victory are on my blog

https://afbitcoins.wordpress.com/2016/11/22/gold-and-silver-trumped/

I guess brother as far as we are in the pitch fork and didn't violate it, we are in a good standing (I'm referring to the latest pitch fork in your blog post), we just need to come closer to the median and I guess this is highly possible before 12/31.

Hi Fakhoury, heres a closer look at that fork.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/L8s07Knf/

Hopefully it is highly possible, if bitcoin does continue up past current levels to reach to the median that would take it to about $840.

Same fork zoomed out further

https://www.tradingview.com/x/UYaZeMDr/

Nice upwards channel we are in right now.
I would say give it another 2-3 months and we may see the real halving effect kicking in.
It happenend back in 2012/2013 and I believe we will see similar things to happen again.
This could push us even higher.I'm hoping for a 2x of the price at halving day, this would result in a price of around $1270.

Don't get it wrong, banks are not interested in utilizing Bitcoin's blockchain, they are after creating their own ones based on the original blockchain design so that they maintain 100% control over them.

this is absolutely true they try to create it for few year but they wont do it like they think it would be
for cost bank will increase interest on every single transaction that why they want to create there own blockchain but they will faild

Another chart

https://www.tradingview.com/x/9niqebBZ/

Bitcoin still seems to be obeying bullish trend, which i like :) Found support more than once on the second trendline up from bottom of my fork. So I guess we seem to be aiming for median line which is now above $850 roughly.  Currently we are approaching level of the last peak in June which may provide a bit of resistance though.

If bitcoin can continue upwards to top of the fork that is getting to new all time highs territory  :o

I agree with all but the bold.
I'm waiting for $850 before I even look at a chart again.

Interesting price action on bitstamp, (and I presume other exchanges too) spiking above and then spiking back below the resistance line on my previous chart. Could this be the start of the next leg up over $800 ??

https://www.tradingview.com/x/eZmDHRbc/

As expected / hoped for bitcoin reeached median line of my fork

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZoZx31ne/

At that median it looks like resistance has been hit.

On one hour chart, tried to break through but couldn't sustain

https://www.tradingview.com/x/zzQ0UWWR/

I guess we'll have some consolidation at these levels now but for how long. If bitcoin pushes up through that median line, I would say new all time highs beckon shortly after.

What is the state of the fork?

Update please

TIA