Bitcoin Primed

[afbitcoins]

Sharing an idea I've already posted elsewhere but heck, why not have it here too.

Chart should be self explanatory I think, heres bitstamp on log price scale, 1 week candles.



In log price chart there is a well defined bull channel, shown in green which goes back to 2012 (and possibly earlier if MtGox data were available). Recent spike up to $500 ended exactly on midpoint of the uptrending channel (supporting the validity for the trendlines). Other evidence for these trendlines is provided by the upper trendline of the channel which supported bitcoin multiple times while it was in bubble territory before finally giving way as the price went on to reach its post bubble low.

The recent spike is reminicent of ‘mini’ bubble in bitcoin in 2012 before the huge bull moves began.

So far horizontal resistance at $320 is still holding. If it fails then price should find solid support at around $270 ish which will be a great place to go long if it gets that low, with sell stop under the channel.

With bitcoin already very depressed after the collapse of the last bubble there is plenty of room on the upside. Bitcoin can get past previous all time highs while still in the channel, before even getting into crazy bubble territory.

For fun I’ve shown possible path price might take as the halving mania and price pump begins to take hold using some black arrows.

Comments welcome.

Thanks

BTW This is a self moderated thread but I doubt I'll be doing any moderation

[Mickeyb]

I must say that I do agree with your assessment. It was about the time to end this 2 year downtrend and we did end it with the style with the last run up to a $500.

Now after some stabilization there is only one way in my opinion and this is up! Add to this all of the upcoming events in the next year and especially the halving and I think that the new highs are coming to us during 2016!

[NorrisK]

Funny to see that the run to 500 didn't even cross the middle green line yet. There is still soo much headroom for bitcoin these days, not funny!

Let's enjoy the next price rise!

[azguard]

you might be right considering that price slowly is staring to climb again few dollars per jump
we might have some bigger price change in next few weeks

[afbitcoins]

I was waiting for loads of comments about Technical Analysis being shit and sock puppet accounts telling me bitcoin is going to zero ? whats going on? are bears turning into bulls ? Have they given up?

[afbitcoins]

Bitcoin is taking quite a strong bounce up off the horizontal support, starting to look like this mini bubble correction might not get much below $320

Log chart with 1 day candles gives closer view



I remember this from the last bubble where you wait for a dip to buy in which never comes. Wonder if its going to start getting like that ?
edit - Although it seems a bit too early for that yet I think.

[Yatsida]

I agree the price of bitcoin has been consolidated for some time. It is time for the price to go higher soon.

[hector3115]

I love waking up to big green candles!!!! The trend is your friend and the trend since January is up!  Im thinking about getting the old moon suit back out!!

[mcplums]

I was waiting for loads of comments about Technical Analysis being shit and sock puppet accounts telling me bitcoin is going to zero ? whats going on? are bears turning into bulls ? Have they given up?

Technical analysis is shit....but like a broken clock it is right sometimes and I hope you are right here!

[Morecoin Freeman]

There will not be enough coins for everyone.
Dusting off my moon boots.

[Raimonn]

Its nice to see bitcoin price going up. But please don't dump it on next week. I prefer it grows slowly and not going up and down in few days.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I was waiting for loads of comments about Technical Analysis being shit and sock puppet accounts telling me bitcoin is going to zero ? whats going on? are bears turning into bulls ? Have they given up?

Yep! Time to sell 

Honestly though, I don't really like that channel. Two points on the bottom makes for an unreliable channel base line. Basically, it can be moved infinitely until it works. The true channel bottom (which had 4 or 5 bounces on it) was broken nearly a year ago. We haven't even retested the underside of it, So upside is a great possibility, but to automatically assume we are heading to new ATH's is a bit premature.

I do think a 50-61.8% retrace of the entire bear is in order, but definitely not guaranteed. The top may have been the $500 high and we are still trying to figure out the oscillations before finishing the bear.

[afbitcoins]

I was waiting for loads of comments about Technical Analysis being shit and sock puppet accounts telling me bitcoin is going to zero ? whats going on? are bears turning into bulls ? Have they given up?

Yep! Time to sell  

Honestly though, I don't really like that channel. Two points on the bottom makes for an unreliable channel base line. Basically, it can be moved infinitely until it works. The true channel bottom (which had 4 or 5 bounces on it) was broken nearly a year ago. We haven't even retested the underside of it, So upside is a great possibility, but to automatically assume we are heading to new ATH's is a bit premature.

I do think a 50-61.8% retrace of the entire bear is in order, but definitely not guaranteed. The top may have been the $500 high and we are still trying to figure out the oscillations before finishing the bear.

I remember the channel you are talking about, I used to call it the 'long term channel' or something like that. It looked particularly good on charts where MtGox data is also available and was a big blow to bulls when it finally gave way. This is just me honestly looking at the new trend on a new chart with recent data, which I'm seeing as bullish. Might be wrong, but this is my speculation.

My arrows projecting at the end is based on trend holding and a halving mania occuring next year. Maybe instead of that there will be a collapse because of scaling issues and XT takeover of the blockchain or something. Who knows?

edit: Just to add I personally judge bullish outcome as more likely and when bitcoin gets bullish it really gets bullish and there aren't many bitcoins to go around for something like this which has global attention.

[Wilhelm]

The TA isn't that good imo but the message is clear.

As I see it we have some good indicators
1. Very long bear period that must end someday.
2. 1w log chart has an EMA that clearly gives a bull signal and has held for >1 week.
3. Optimism in the media and forums
4. >5 year Existance of the currency
5. Halving coming
6. More infrastructure and investors
Etc.

Buy your bitcoins while they are cheap!!!!!

[uki]

The TA isn't that good imo but the message is clear.

As I see it we have some good indicators
1. Very long bear period that must end someday.
2. 1w log chart has an EMA that clearly gives a bull signal and has held for >1 week.
3. Optimism in the media and forums
4. >5 year Existance of the currency
5. Halving coming
6. More infrastructure and investors
Etc.

Buy your bitcoins while they are cheap!!!!!

That is all true, and whereas I agree that we managed to reverse the down trend that started after Mt. Gox crash, I still believe a solid testing of the support line around $300 (here shown as the lower band of the uptrend channel) is more than due. therefore I believe we will stay around $350 till the end of the year, at least.
As for the halving event, that is definitely the fundamental event of 2016 for Bitcoin, but I hope to get some more fundamental support to fuel the next leg up. I still think it is too early to speak about halving effect at today's price level, but soon it will get noticed.

[suda123]

The TA isn't that good imo but the message is clear.

As I see it we have some good indicators
1. Very long bear period that must end someday.
2. 1w log chart has an EMA that clearly gives a bull signal and has held for >1 week.
3. Optimism in the media and forums
4. >5 year Existance of the currency
5. Halving coming
6. More infrastructure and investors
Etc.

Buy your bitcoins while they are cheap!!!!!

That is all true, and whereas I agree that we managed to reverse the down trend that started after Mt. Gox crash, I still believe a solid testing of the support line around $300 (here shown as the lower band of the uptrend channel) is more than due. therefore I believe we will stay around $350 till the end of the year, at least.
As for the halving event, that is definitely the fundamental event of 2016 for Bitcoin, but I hope to get some more fundamental support to fuel the next leg up. I still think it is too early to speak about halving effect at today's price level, but soon it will get noticed.

Bitcoin cant go down, that would look really bad. People won't buy if they knew the possibility of it going around 200s 100s so it will be a stale mate. Vise versa is people would buy up all the cheap coins because media only works so much.

[QuintLeo]

Bitcoin has ZERO fundimental reason to not go down - in fact, the current news is mostly NEGATIVE indicating a very high probability it WILL go down over the next few months.

 Market analysis only works on MATURE markets, Bitcoin is too small and too immature for it to have any real meaning.


 Note that the recent surge was due to ONE NEWS EVENT in China, per all indications - the announcement by BTCC (and other Chinese markets) that they were going to start taking Fiat Currency payments directly again.


 We're still dealing with the aftereffects of THAT one big announcement and the instability it introduced to the overall Botcoin market.

[suda123]

The TA isn't that good imo but the message is clear.

As I see it we have some good indicators
1. Very long bear period that must end someday.
2. 1w log chart has an EMA that clearly gives a bull signal and has held for >1 week.
3. Optimism in the media and forums
4. >5 year Existance of the currency
5. Halving coming
6. More infrastructure and investors
Etc.

Buy your bitcoins while they are cheap!!!!!

That is all true, and whereas I agree that we managed to reverse the down trend that started after Mt. Gox crash, I still believe a solid testing of the support line around $300 (here shown as the lower band of the uptrend channel) is more than due. therefore I believe we will stay around $350 till the end of the year, at least.
As for the halving event, that is definitely the fundamental event of 2016 for Bitcoin, but I hope to get some more fundamental support to fuel the next leg up. I still think it is too early to speak about halving effect at today's price level, but soon it will get noticed.

Bitcoin cant go down, that would look really bad. People won't buy if they knew the possibility of it going around 200s 100s so it will be a stale mate. Vise versa is people would buy up all the cheap coins because media only works so much.

What I mean specifically is that all these investors and startups around it are pretty big people, I doubt they will let it look like that.

[Wilhelm]

The TA isn't that good imo but the message is clear.

As I see it we have some good indicators
1. Very long bear period that must end someday.
2. 1w log chart has an EMA that clearly gives a bull signal and has held for >1 week.
3. Optimism in the media and forums
4. >5 year Existance of the currency
5. Halving coming
6. More infrastructure and investors
Etc.

Buy your bitcoins while they are cheap!!!!!

That is all true, and whereas I agree that we managed to reverse the down trend that started after Mt. Gox crash, I still believe a solid testing of the support line around $300 (here shown as the lower band of the uptrend channel) is more than due. therefore I believe we will stay around $350 till the end of the year, at least.
As for the halving event, that is definitely the fundamental event of 2016 for Bitcoin, but I hope to get some more fundamental support to fuel the next leg up. I still think it is too early to speak about halving effect at today's price level, but soon it will get noticed.

Bitcoin cant go down, that would look really bad. People won't buy if they knew the possibility of it going around 200s 100s so it will be a stale mate. Vise versa is people would buy up all the cheap coins because media only works so much.

What I mean specifically is that all these investors and startups around it are pretty big people, I doubt they will let it look like that.

If you know it is going down you can still make money by going short...

[uki]

The TA isn't that good imo but the message is clear.

As I see it we have some good indicators
1. Very long bear period that must end someday.
2. 1w log chart has an EMA that clearly gives a bull signal and has held for >1 week.
3. Optimism in the media and forums
4. >5 year Existance of the currency
5. Halving coming
6. More infrastructure and investors
Etc.

Buy your bitcoins while they are cheap!!!!!

That is all true, and whereas I agree that we managed to reverse the down trend that started after Mt. Gox crash, I still believe a solid testing of the support line around $300 (here shown as the lower band of the uptrend channel) is more than due. therefore I believe we will stay around $350 till the end of the year, at least.
As for the halving event, that is definitely the fundamental event of 2016 for Bitcoin, but I hope to get some more fundamental support to fuel the next leg up. I still think it is too early to speak about halving effect at today's price level, but soon it will get noticed.

Bitcoin cant go down, that would look really bad. People won't buy if they knew the possibility of it going around 200s 100s so it will be a stale mate. Vise versa is people would buy up all the cheap coins because media only works so much.

What do you mean that it can't go down? Of course, it can, the same way it can go up, or stay in the horizontal trend. One thing is what you want the price to do, and the other is what may happen. What I am saying here is that from the TA viewpoint a retest of the recent support is very probably and would be very healthy for the technical indicators. A break below $300 would be very negative, though I think it is less likely now.