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Bitcoin => Bitcoin Discussion => Topic started by: goldlyre on November 19, 2012, 08:16:34 AM



Title: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: goldlyre on November 19, 2012, 08:16:34 AM
I'm a newcomer and it's my first post here.

I'm a newbie in this BTC thing, and till now I've put 1/20th of my disposable money (for investment purpose) in Bitcoin. To be exact, I bought them directly from a BTC exchange - BtcChina, instead of mining hard all day long with the sophisticated equipments. Yes, your guessing is right, I'm a Chinese people buying BTC with the local currency CNY.

My question now is that how many % of your disposable money have you already in BTC? Is 1/20th too small? thanks.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: goldlyre on November 19, 2012, 08:28:52 AM
http://s9.sinaimg.cn/mw690/625918c2tced4e2c2e4f8&690

test 4 pic


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: Yuhfhrh on November 19, 2012, 08:56:38 AM
I have all of my savings in bitcoin, but then again I can afford to lose it all. I would still say at this point only put in what you can afford to lose.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: FreeMoney on November 19, 2012, 09:01:46 AM
I have a few months expenses in dollars, most of the rest in coins.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: BR0KK on November 19, 2012, 09:26:08 AM
A lot .....    but im prepared to lose it.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: Foxpup on November 19, 2012, 09:28:55 AM
My question now is that how many % of your disposable money have you already in BTC?
100%, but I have a stable income and enough fiat for day-to-day expenses, so I don't have anything to worry about if there's another massive crash and the value of my bitcoin holdings goes down the toilet (instead, I see crashes as an opportunity to buy cheap coins).

Is 1/20th too small?
That depends entirely on how much you're willing to risk. If your financial situation is very secure, to the point where losing most of your money would not really cause you any great inconvenience, then you might be willing to risk most or all of your money on bitcoins. Otherwise, you need to think very carefully about exactly how much money you can afford to lose without it being a major problem. Do not invest any more than you can afford to lose.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: cunicula on November 19, 2012, 09:31:04 AM
These guys have insane risk-tolerance. One-twentieth is plenty. I suggest also putting a much smaller amount in any compelling alternative coins you may come across.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: picobit on November 19, 2012, 11:27:17 AM
To be exact, I bought them directly from a BTC exchange - BtcChina, instead of mining hard all day long with the sophisticated equipments.
So you are a sensible person! :)

Quote
My question now is that how many % of your disposable money have you already in BTC? Is 1/20th too small? thanks.
Around 2%  

Bitcoin may crash tomorrow.  Or it may make us rich (no, I don't really believe it will, but it could happen).

Until that happens, it is a fun and elegant experiment.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: bg002h on November 19, 2012, 11:47:21 AM
I got mine essentially for free...back when CPU mining was do-able. I mined 200 coins in one night on my laptop...Bitcoin grew so rapidly that after the next difficulty change (which was like a week after I started mining), I was way way out classed and unable to mine...so I forgot about my coins until just before the crash. I sold some as we had become unexpectedly acutely poor due to health issues with my daughter and I am very grateful they became worth something. I don't actively put money in Bitcoin, but I consider not spending the coins I have left as my investment (and as a resident physician, my 500 BTC is a huge investment for me).


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: Gabi on November 19, 2012, 12:49:36 PM
Welcome!


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: ralree on November 19, 2012, 01:23:14 PM
Depending on how you do the calculation, I have a few percent of my money in BTC, but no more than 5%.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: prezbo on November 19, 2012, 02:29:15 PM
About 50%. I bought bitcoins early on and they appreciated quite a bit (about 15 fold). Seeing my stock portfolio plummet in recent years, it'd be daft to sell them.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: BladeMcCool on November 19, 2012, 04:20:51 PM
for me its about 70% gold, 25% silver, 5% bitcoin


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU on November 19, 2012, 04:22:48 PM
Around 2%  

Also 2% here.  Somewhat depends on what is meant by disposable.  If I ignore semi-liquid items, the amount rises up to 5%.  Small enough to avoid committing suicide if price goes to zero, large enough to make me a retiree if price goes to $1000.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: RodeoX on November 19, 2012, 05:28:39 PM
I think a small percentage is the best strategy.  If bitcoin continues it's rise then even a small buy will become a valuable asset. If it fails then you have lost little. If you can be disciplined, then use your coins to make more coins and cash out your original investment. That's what I did and now I use my profits for buying more bitcoin. I have zero dollars invested at this point, and I still have a bunch of bitcoin.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: justusranvier on November 19, 2012, 05:39:36 PM
I've said before on this forum that it's premature to use bitcoins as a form of savings, but as the number of places where you can spend them increases the balances begins to shift to the other side. Another thing I look at is the possibility of (even more) draconian capital controls coming to the developed economies. There's something to be said for keeping your savings in a form that's resistant to being seized or frozen even at the risk of an unfavorable shift in the exchange rate.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: Lethn on November 19, 2012, 05:53:20 PM
for me its about 70% gold, 25% silver, 5% bitcoin

Sounds about right, if you don't mind me asking do you have the money for metals in bullion or futures?


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: phelix on November 19, 2012, 07:42:41 PM
To be exact, I bought them directly from a BTC exchange - BtcChina, instead of mining hard all day long with the sophisticated equipments.
So you are a sensible person! :)

Quote
My question now is that how many % of your disposable money have you already in BTC? Is 1/20th too small? thanks.
Around 2%  

Bitcoin may crash tomorrow.  Or it may make us rich (no, I don't really believe it will, but it could happen).

Until that happens, it is a fun and elegant experiment.


I too think bitcoin is all or nothing in ten years. Better hold a smaller amount in btc and mix some gold and etfs/stocks in your portfolio. Also real estate if you can afford or real estate etfs/stocks.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: Realpra on November 19, 2012, 08:02:46 PM
57% Bitcoin and 43% wind turbine shares. However with the changing rates and my new job yielding lots of new investment money it is changing rapidly. Until very recently I was a poor student so its really less crazy risk taking and more starting somewhere.

I keep as little as possible in fiat.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: P_Shep on November 20, 2012, 12:12:50 AM
2%


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: goldlyre on November 20, 2012, 02:12:49 AM
Thanks a lot for all your replies upstairs. I'm also a PM stacker and my portfolio roughly includes 10% in gold and 40% in silver - all of them in physical bullions - as well as 25% or so in realties and 15% in numerous investments like antique items and the Paper Silver (which is most liquid) etc., with the remainder 5% in Bitcoin. Now I am considering whether or not I should sell part of my Paper Silver (a trading protocol sponsered by a big bank to closely following the silver price) position and then use the money to add more bitcoins to my present holdings. What's your opinion? Your comments shall be greatly appreciated.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: BladeMcCool on November 20, 2012, 02:14:11 AM
for me its about 70% gold, 25% silver, 5% bitcoin

Sounds about right, if you don't mind me asking do you have the money for metals in bullion or futures?

I have the metals as physical bullion. IMO if you don't hold it, you don't own it ;)


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: helloworld on November 20, 2012, 02:34:19 AM
50% Real Estate, 45% Bitcoin, 5% Litecoin
So if you don't count the equity in the real estate, then I have 90% of my money in Bitcoin and 10% in Litecoin. Almost none in bank $


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: acoindr on November 20, 2012, 02:58:42 AM
Sounds like some smart investors/money managers here.

Oh, and I hold PMs, bitcoins, litecoins, and still fiat. The percentages (mostly for fiat) vary depending on what I'm working on.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: QuestionAuthority on November 20, 2012, 03:00:54 AM
I used to smoke Cohiba’s and realized about a year ago how expensive smoking really is. I didn’t stop because it was killing me. I knew that already but I loved them. I stopped because Quicken told me how much I spent at the Cigar Shop in a year and I almost fell off my chair. You don’t think about it when you buy them one at a time. I was also addicted to coffee and would stop everyday and buy an expensive coffee drink. Now, I take all the money that I would have wasted killing myself and buy bitcoins with it. I’m not really out anything because that money would have gone “up in smoke” anyway. Even if Bitcoin eventually becomes worthless I’m not really out anything.

If you are on the fence about throwing money at btc or how much you should spend, I suggest giving up a bad habit and buying coin with it. Drinking soft drinks is bad for you. If you drink two a day and buy them from a machine how many coins could you buy in a month with that money?


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: helloworld on November 20, 2012, 03:06:23 AM
If you drink two a day and buy them from a machine how many coins could you buy in a month with that money?

10.6


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: odolvlobo on November 20, 2012, 03:13:53 AM
I have about 1% and I am a big believer in Bitcoin. I might eventually go higher.

People with 5%, 10%, 50%, or more need to learn how to manage their money better: they are exposing themselves to a lot financial risk, or they don't have nearly enough savings, or both.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: QuestionAuthority on November 20, 2012, 03:13:53 AM
If you drink two a day and buy them from a machine how many coins could you buy in a month with that money?

10.6

10.6 btc and better teeth for doing it. Sounds like a good deal. LOL


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: acoindr on November 20, 2012, 03:27:42 AM
I have about 1% and I am a big believer in Bitcoin. I might eventually go higher.

People with 5%, 10%, 50%, or more need to learn how to manage their money better: they are exposing themselves to a lot financial risk, or they don't have nearly enough savings, or both.

If they can't afford to lose it then yes. However, the fiat system currently discourages savings (and encourages consumption and debt). Most people have lots of debt with little to no savings... If you have savings at all, in general, you're doing quite well.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: helloworld on November 20, 2012, 03:30:43 AM
I have about 1% and I am a big believer in Bitcoin. I might eventually go higher.

People with 5%, 10%, 50%, or more need to learn how to manage their money better: they are exposing themselves to a lot financial risk, or they don't have nearly enough savings, or both.

If they can't afford to lose it then yes. However, the fiat system currently discourages savings (and encourages consumption and debt). Most people have lots of debt with little to no savings... If you have savings at all, in general, you're doing quite well.

To me, having only 1% in bitcoin sounds extremely risky. You run the risk of missing out big time if bitcoin takes over the world.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: acoindr on November 20, 2012, 03:40:57 AM
To me, having only 1% in bitcoin sounds extremely risky. You run the risk of missing out big time if bitcoin takes over the world.

No, I don't think it's risky. I think having 0% is.

Bitcoin is at an unbelievably early stage, still. There are only 21 million bitcoins, yet the world population is almost 7 billion. Bitcoin doesn't need to take over the world. It can just make a tiny tiny dent and have ridiculous ROI. I've stated before I think having as few as 10 bitcoins can make someone a millionaire in fiat terms (that means 1 BTC = $100K). That currently costs about $100.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: DoomDumas on November 20, 2012, 03:43:28 AM
I mine a little for almost free, because my mining hardware has been paid in full by selling BTC while they worth less than a dollar.  Actually, my mining income are very little.

I buy BTC each month for 5% of my total income.  Can't buy more, but the 5% of all income I use to buy BTC is investement that I know can be a total lost overnight.

I truly believe in a nice BTC future, and the coins I buy/mine are to pay for more ASIC in the next months or so.

I love to mine some, as I can spent those, knowing that what I buy is equivalent cost of my mining power cost.

Also, betting on BetsOfBitco.in (http://BetsOfBitco.in) is gambling that I like :)


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: helloworld on November 20, 2012, 03:44:25 AM
To me, having only 1% in bitcoin sounds extremely risky. You run the risk of missing out big time if bitcoin takes over the world.

No, I don't think it's risky. I think having 0% is.

Bitcoin is at an unbelievably early stage, still. There are only 21 million bitcoins, yet the world population is over 7 billion. Bitcoin doesn't need to take over the world. It can just make a tiny tiny dent and have ridiculous ROI. I've stated before I think having as few a 10 bitcoins can make someone a millionaire in fiat terms (that means 1 BTC = $100K). That currently costs about $100.

You're probably right.

However, I personally believe that becoming a millionaire, when you could have become a billionaire, is risky.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: DoomDumas on November 20, 2012, 03:52:56 AM
IMO, BTC will appreciated a lot more, I mean incredible appreciation, within 10 years, they are very young and strong.. I'm willing to bet BTC will win over any other mean of investment in a ten year time frame.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: acoindr on November 20, 2012, 03:54:39 AM
To me, having only 1% in bitcoin sounds extremely risky. You run the risk of missing out big time if bitcoin takes over the world.

No, I don't think it's risky. I think having 0% is.

Bitcoin is at an unbelievably early stage, still. There are only 21 million bitcoins, yet the world population is over 7 billion. Bitcoin doesn't need to take over the world. It can just make a tiny tiny dent and have ridiculous ROI. I've stated before I think having as few a 10 bitcoins can make someone a millionaire in fiat terms (that means 1 BTC = $100K). That currently costs about $100.

You're probably right.

However, I personally believe that becoming a millionaire, when you could have become a billionaire, is risky.

Well, I can't argue with that.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: acoindr on November 20, 2012, 04:09:50 AM
Thanks a lot for all your replies upstairs. I'm also a PM stacker and my portfolio roughly includes 10% in gold and 40% in silver - all of them in physical bullions - as well as 25% or so in realties and 15% in numerous investments like antique items and the Paper Silver (which is most liquid) etc., with the remainder 5% in Bitcoin. Now I am considering whether or not I should sell part of my Paper Silver (a trading protocol sponsered by a big bank to closely following the silver price) position and then use the money to add more bitcoins to my present holdings. What's your opinion? Your comments shall be greatly appreciated.

Well, based on this it's like you already have an awesome new sports car and you're just figuring out which polish to use.

I believe people who have the majority or all of their wealth only in paper assets, such as fiat currencies, stocks, retirement funds, etc. will lose out big time in the near future.

People who have a decent part of their wealth stored in precious metals will do very well, much better in comparison. People who ALSO have some of their wealth in crypto-currencies like Bitcoin will probably do even better than that. The only way to do even better than that is also have a bit of viable alternative crypto-currency like Litecoin.

The majority of people will only be in paper assets, so to be diversified past that you're already way ahead. Now, you're simply figuring out how much farther ahead.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: odolvlobo on November 20, 2012, 04:36:44 AM
I've stated before I think having as few as 10 bitcoins can make someone a millionaire in fiat terms (that means 1 BTC = $100K). That currently costs about $100.
If $100 is 5% of your savings, then you aren't saving enough.

To me, having only 1% in bitcoin sounds extremely risky. You run the risk of missing out big time if bitcoin takes over the world.
Someone holding a lot of BTC also has to consider that they might be wrong about their prediction and what the impact of that will be.

I buy BTC each month for 5% of my total income.  Can't buy more, but the 5% of all income I use to buy BTC is investement that I know can be a total lost overnight.
Ok, 5% goes into BTC, but how much goes into other savings? Where would you be if bitcoin evaporated and then you lost your job?

IMO, BTC will appreciated a lot more, I mean incredible appreciation, within 10 years, they are very young and strong.. I'm willing to bet BTC will win over any other mean of investment in a ten year time frame.
But how much are you willing to bet, and what if you are wrong?


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: helloworld on November 20, 2012, 04:54:00 AM
I think you've mis-quoted everybody there.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: FreeMoney on November 20, 2012, 06:36:02 AM
To me, having only 1% in bitcoin sounds extremely risky. You run the risk of missing out big time if bitcoin takes over the world.

No, I don't think it's risky. I think having 0% is.

Bitcoin is at an unbelievably early stage, still. There are only 21 million bitcoins, yet the world population is over 7 billion. Bitcoin doesn't need to take over the world. It can just make a tiny tiny dent and have ridiculous ROI. I've stated before I think having as few a 10 bitcoins can make someone a millionaire in fiat terms (that means 1 BTC = $100K). That currently costs about $100.

You're probably right.

However, I personally believe that becoming a millionaire, when you could have become a billionaire, is risky.


It's not just that, if you've got a very small % and that's your rule you'll be selling all the way up and even if the value of bitcoin goes up 10000x from here you'll potentially get 100x or less on 1-5% of your wealth, which is nice but you are missing a lot of the value due you if you've really figured bitcoin out this early. A rule of 1% of what you have now and never sell doesn't really work either since... you'll never actually benefit in any material way.

A high % and keep that % roughly constant is the way to go imo. I violated that during the bubble/peak to my detriment. Selling down to my previous % would have protected my stash all through 2012, but as it happened I had to sell quite a bit.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: goldlyre on November 20, 2012, 10:31:11 AM
If bitcoin went to da moon tomorrow, those who heavily in BTC would become as rich as the Tsar.

http://s5.sinaimg.cn/mw690/625918c2t7b1778b1a504&690


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: Polvos on November 20, 2012, 11:50:37 AM
 :D ROFL  :D

I imagined myself being very rich and playing snooker like the kid in your picture.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: pyra-proxy on November 20, 2012, 11:56:38 AM
110%! In all the way!  ;)


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: Frequency on November 20, 2012, 12:58:02 PM
I have about 1% and I am a big believer in Bitcoin. I might eventually go higher.

People with 5%, 10%, 50%, or more need to learn how to manage their money better: they are exposing themselves to a lot financial risk, or they don't have nearly enough savings, or both.

If they can't afford to lose it then yes. However, the fiat system currently discourages savings (and encourages consumption and debt). Most people have lots of debt with little to no savings... If you have savings at all, in general, you're doing quite well.

U are so right, if you can end this year and have no dept..paid all of ur bills, have a roof above ur head, got some good food and then still have some money in ur pocket u belong to the only 8% in the world these days..

I have around 10% in BTC


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: Haole on November 20, 2012, 02:48:20 PM
I have a little under 7% of my liquid cash in BTC.  


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: Seal on November 20, 2012, 04:11:35 PM
15% in Bitcoin

The rest is split up between cash and equities (shares)


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: Meizirkki on November 20, 2012, 04:22:12 PM
80% and I can afford to lose all


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: greyhawk on November 20, 2012, 04:28:06 PM
If bitcoin went to da moon tomorrow, those who heavily in BTC would become as rich as the Tsar.

You DO know what they did with him? The Tsar I mean.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: Fjordbit on November 20, 2012, 09:54:39 PM
What do you define as disposable money. I don't think of savings as disposable. Disposable is what I have to spend on whatever I want beyond my bills gas and groceries. If that's what you mean, right now it's about 50-50.

If you're including savings, I've put away a bit in fiat recently, so while that was 50-50 earlier in the year, it's more like 67-33 in favor of fiat now. Then there's other things like pension plans which tip it more to fiat.

I do feel having at least 5% (1/20) of your retirement savings in Bitcoin is a good idea. The downside is very little, while the upside potential such that it could eclipse all of your other investments by the time you retire.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: bbit on November 20, 2012, 11:41:05 PM
100 % of my wealth is in bitcoins.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: 2GOOD on November 20, 2012, 11:51:05 PM
More than 100% atm including small bitcoin savings and some asic upgrades... I know it's bad but I can afford to loose them since I'm not a saving guy it's not that much ;D


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: Spaceman_Spiff on November 21, 2012, 01:39:26 AM
The downside is very little.

You are kidding, right?  I agree the upside potential is huge, but if the security of the system was somehow breached, it could become worthless overnight..   While I am no security/technology expert by any means, I think the system still has to prove itself for several years in order to be considered 'safe' (and even then you still have to watch developments like quantum computing).


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: 2GOOD on November 21, 2012, 01:50:22 AM
I think the system still has to prove itself for several years in order to be considered 'safe' (and even then you still have to watch developments like quantum computing).

IMO if/when quantum computing becomes reality bitcoin network is the last thing to worry ;)


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: Lethn on November 21, 2012, 02:12:48 AM
for me its about 70% gold, 25% silver, 5% bitcoin

Sounds about right, if you don't mind me asking do you have the money for metals in bullion or futures?

I have the metals as physical bullion. IMO if you don't hold it, you don't own it ;)

LOL :D I'm someone who's listened to Peter Schiff and Ron Paul, you're preaching to the choir :P I'm thinking of getting some silver bars maybe if I could ever afford it.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: Fjordbit on November 21, 2012, 02:24:34 AM
The downside is very little.

You are kidding, right?  I agree the upside potential is huge, but if the security of the system was somehow breached, it could become worthless overnight..   While I am no security/technology expert by any means, I think the system still has to prove itself for several years in order to be considered 'safe' (and even then you still have to watch developments like quantum computing).

No I'm not kidding. I personally feel that if 5% of your savings go to 0, that this will have very little impact on your retirement. At worst, it delays your retirement by 1 year 3 months using a 4% withdrawl rate. In reality, you'll retire at the same age, but get a condo a few exits more north of Miami.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: beckspace on November 21, 2012, 02:54:03 AM
Reading this thread:

http://cdn.memegenerator.net/instances/400x/30553862.jpg


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: odolvlobo on November 21, 2012, 03:18:04 AM
I realize that there is no use in trying to get people here to come to their senses. Anyone that can afford to lose 80% of their money either has no money or is living in their parents' basement, or both. You just aren't being rational.

People are also fooling themselves if they think that the chances of bitcoin failing are low. I think the risk of bitcoin failing is 50-50.

I'm not worried about quantum computing, cracking SHA-256, a 51% attack, or some security flaw. Those are all low probability events and are potentially avoidable.

The second biggest risk is that the government declares bitcoin illegal in some way (probably saying it supports terrorism or some other kind of nonsense). Scoff all you want, but making it illegal in some fashion will scare away all of  the people you are counting on to buy your million dollar bitcoins.

The biggest risk to bitcoin is that the government will try to regulate it. Again, it doesn't matter if it is possible, or successful, or not. The result of regulation will be that most people will avoid bitcoin because it won't be worth the hassle, and your dream of million dollar bitcoins will disappear.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: justusranvier on November 21, 2012, 04:19:37 AM
The second biggest risk is that the government declares bitcoin illegal in some way (probably saying it supports terrorism or some other kind of nonsense). Scoff all you want, but making it illegal in some fashion will scare away all of  the people you are counting on to buy your million dollar bitcoins.

The biggest risk to bitcoin is that the government will try to regulate it. Again, it doesn't matter if it is possible, or successful, or not. The result of regulation will be that most people will avoid bitcoin because it won't be worth the hassle, and your dream of million dollar bitcoins will disappear.
Not necessarily. It all depends on the circumstances (http://www.dailywealth.com/2202/Crisis-Replay-Soon-Argentina-Will-Be-on-Sale-Again) surrounding the regulation.

Quote
Today, Argentina is back in a bind. There is a strong possibility of another crack-up within the next year. And then we'll have the same opportunity we had a decade ago. 
 
The signs are all there. The streets of Buenos Aires have recently seen the return of the backstreet currency exchange.
 
According to the official exchange rate, which is subject to capital controls, 4.4 pesos buys you a dollar. But on the street, people are happy to pay up to 6.7. Inflation runs at 25%. The purchasing power of an Argentine's peso savings is going down by one-quarter each year.
 
The government claims inflation is 9.9% and has outlawed calculating or quoting any other inflation rate. Forty percent of dollar deposits have been withdrawn from Argentina since last October. Now there are capital controls. You need special permission to move your dollars overseas.
 
To take a foreign vacation, Argentines have to apply to a bureaucrat for permission and explain where they got the money for the trip. And there are rumours that it will be made illegal to talk about the existence of the shadow market exchange rate for dollars.
 
But a lot of Argentines' dollars and pesos don't reside in bank accounts. Property transactions typically take place in special rooms in lawyers' offices, and they're cash deals. There's that much distrust of banks. They are fine for day-to-day things like paying your electric bill. Not for your savings, though.
 
And these transactions more often than not take place in dollars... If you pay in dollars, you could get 25% off the price of property. The government has outlawed this, making the buying and selling of real estate in dollars illegal. Just one more rule Argentines will find their way around.
 
By some reports, if an Argentine company complied with all the taxes and tariffs it faces, they would eat up more than the company's pretax profits. So the shadow economy thrives... by necessity, it seems, rather than greed to pay less tax. Middle-class day-trippers take the ferry to Uruguay to put their savings in deposit boxes. The rich spend millions on condos in Punta del Este, Uruguay.
 
For Argentines, real estate is their bank. They understand inflation and expropriation from bank and pension accounts. If they have some spare cash, they'll buy an apartment. Or a beach home across the Río de la Plata in Uruguay. Or a condo in Miami.
 
Now, fewer Argentines are using local real estate as a hedge against inflation. New construction and permit applications have fallen off a cliff. They just want their cash out.
 
The government claims that the rate of outflow has slowed. But with every passing week, companies and individuals figure out new ways to get their cash out. For instance, companies buy financial instruments locally in pesos that they immediately resell in New York for dollars.
 
Argentines have seen it all before. When a government and a banking system take your life's work with the stroke of a pen, you don't forget. If you're lucky enough to rebuild your savings, the next time you will be ready. And the harder the Argentine president, Cristina Kirchner, tries to keep assets in the country, the more they'll be siphoned out.

It's not wise to assume this scenario will never happen to the US or Europe, nor to assume the average person will just meekly obey laws when currency devaluation is bleeding them dry.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: Foxpup on November 21, 2012, 07:59:31 AM
I realize that there is no use in trying to get people here to come to their senses. Anyone that can afford to lose 80% of their money either has no money or is living in their parents' basement, or both. You just aren't being rational.
Say what? Anyone who can't afford to lose 80% of their money doesn't have anywhere near enough savings, and is going to get absolutely slaughtered when (not if) the global economy implodes. If you have a full-time job and no massive debts, and that doesn't add up to an ever-growing mountain of cash that you don't know what to do with and wouldn't cause any inconvenience if it suddenly vanished, then you're doing something horribly wrong.

The second biggest risk is that the government declares bitcoin illegal in some way (probably saying it supports terrorism or some other kind of nonsense). Scoff all you want, but making it illegal in some fashion will scare away all of  the people you are counting on to buy your million dollar bitcoins.

The biggest risk to bitcoin is that the government will try to regulate it. Again, it doesn't matter if it is possible, or successful, or not. The result of regulation will be that most people will avoid bitcoin because it won't be worth the hassle, and your dream of million dollar bitcoins will disappear.
"The" government? I wasn't aware there was only one. Well, that certainly changes things, doesn't it?


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: mufa23 on November 21, 2012, 08:16:22 AM
As far as a BTC to USD value ratio goes, mine is 4/1 at current market prices. For every USD I have, I have 4 USD worth of BTC.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: Spaceman_Spiff on November 21, 2012, 10:12:32 AM
The downside is very little.

You are kidding, right?  I agree the upside potential is huge, but if the security of the system was somehow breached, it could become worthless overnight..   While I am no security/technology expert by any means, I think the system still has to prove itself for several years in order to be considered 'safe' (and even then you still have to watch developments like quantum computing).

No I'm not kidding. I personally feel that if 5% of your savings go to 0, that this will have very little impact on your retirement. At worst, it delays your retirement by 1 year 3 months using a 4% withdrawl rate. In reality, you'll retire at the same age, but get a condo a few exits more north of Miami.

Oh ok, but then you are talking about the downside risk if you only invest 5%, I thought you were talking about the downside risk in bitcoin in general (so also for people who have 100% invested in it).


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: CharlieContent on November 21, 2012, 11:41:30 AM
About 10% of my liquid assets are in Bitcoin, if we use today's USD values.

That wasn't a deliberate decision though, I bought the coins when they were considerably cheaper. At the time it was a tiny proportion of my assets, more like the type of money I'd spend in a big weekend. I wouldn't put 10% of my assets in Bitcoin now, by any means.

I know that logically that means I should cash out the coins until I have a less risky proportion invested, but there's a psychological difference there.  :)  However, the knowledge that I have so much in Bitcoin makes me choose my other investments more conservatively.

I've also cashed out a proportion of my original investment in the past, so no matter what happens I am still way up on Bitcoin. It's performed many times better than any other investment I have ever made. However I got seriously lucky with timing.

If for any reason I felt like it was more than I could afford to lose then I'd cash out in a heartbeat. No one, no matter how much they believe in the concept, should have more than they can afford in Bitcoin.

The people who have ridiculous proportions of their money in Bitcoin, in my opinion, are making an irrational decision. Perhaps it is greed, perhaps it is zealotry. For whatever reason, they have a confidence in Bitcoin that defies logic. Good luck to them, but it a car crash waiting to happen in my opinion. I couldn't sleep at night!


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: Fjordbit on November 21, 2012, 02:33:17 PM
Oh ok, but then you are talking about the downside risk if you only invest 5%, I thought you were talking about the downside risk in bitcoin in general (so also for people who have 100% invested in it).

Yes the full quote is

"I do feel having at least 5% (1/20) of your retirement savings in Bitcoin is a good idea. The downside is very little"

I think that really anyone can have 5% and not significantly put themselves at risk while putting them in a position for a larger payoff. But each person is individual, so I say "at least" because some people can absorb more risk. Earlier this year I took half my savings and put it in bitcoin. This was fine for me because even if the value went to 0, it would not impact my long term retirement plan. If bitcoin went to 0, I am young enough that I could increase my saving rate by 1% and cover it. This means a little less fun right now, but overall there is still no risk.

If you are aged 62 and you put 50% into Bitcoin, well, then that seems risky to me.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: helloworld on November 24, 2012, 12:46:34 PM
The second biggest risk is that the government declares bitcoin illegal in some way (probably saying it supports terrorism or some other kind of nonsense). Scoff all you want, but making it illegal in some fashion will scare away all of  the people you are counting on to buy your million dollar bitcoins.

The biggest risk to bitcoin is that the government will try to regulate it. Again, it doesn't matter if it is possible, or successful, or not. The result of regulation will be that most people will avoid bitcoin because it won't be worth the hassle, and your dream of million dollar bitcoins will disappear.

Twice you have mentioned "the government" but if THE government made it illegal, the other 27,465 governments could still easily allow it's use.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: jl2035 on November 24, 2012, 02:19:00 PM
I set up an account at OKPay so now I'm completelly migrating to Bitcoin...  ;D

I'll try to not use fiat any more...


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: bg002h on November 24, 2012, 05:01:23 PM
Crackdown on Bitcoin by big governments would hurt Bitcoin at least in the short term. You can not kill Bitcoin by legislation, but you can affect the exchange rate quite a bit that way!


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: odolvlobo on November 24, 2012, 07:44:41 PM
The second biggest risk is that the government declares bitcoin illegal in some way (probably saying it supports terrorism or some other kind of nonsense). Scoff all you want, but making it illegal in some fashion will scare away all of  the people you are counting on to buy your million dollar bitcoins.

The biggest risk to bitcoin is that the government will try to regulate it. Again, it doesn't matter if it is possible, or successful, or not. The result of regulation will be that most people will avoid bitcoin because it won't be worth the hassle, and your dream of million dollar bitcoins will disappear.

Twice you have mentioned "the government" but if THE government made it illegal, the other 27,465 governments could still easily allow it's use.


That doesn't matter. It is said that governments can't shut down bitcoin. I completely agree, but that is not the risk.

We are expecting (more like dreaming of) big increases of the value of BTC in the future due to widespread adoption. However, if the U.S. or E.U. decides to regulate bitcoin or make it illegal in some way, then adoption will plummet (perhaps back to current levels) and our fortune will evaporate.

A scenario in which I think regulation of bitcoin is not a risk is if inflation of the government's currency is very high.


Title: Re: A newbie asks - how many % of your disposable money have you in BTC?
Post by: FreeMoney on November 24, 2012, 10:51:05 PM
Crackdown on Bitcoin by big governments would hurt Bitcoin at least in the short term. You can not kill Bitcoin by legislation, but you can affect the exchange rate quite a bit that way!

That would be a huge story, actually many huge stories and drama over several years. Likely and the price would settle much higher, barring something like every major government actually stopping it (something they haven't managed for drug use, immigration, tax evasion, murder, rape, etc).