Bitcoin Forum

I moved the other thread one due to an error (forgot self mod)

We had a rollover

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1260927.msg13169444#msg13169444

Diff was 8.77%  he was correct!


 So we are now offering the largest 'free' prize ever 0.316 btc  and I am tossing in a sidehack-novac compac usb stick

 The picks open at block 600 made :

Bitcoin Difficulty:   79,102,380,900
Estimated Next Difficulty:   86,890,789,560 (+9.85%)


Adjust time:   After 1416 Blocks, About 13.6 days    at 1416 left or 600 made we start


Hashrate(?):   582,755,708 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):  
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.1 minutes
6 blocks: 58.3 minutes
Updated:  



and close at block 1200 made.


Bitcoin Difficulty:   79,102,380,900
Estimated Next Difficulty:   86,890,789,560 (+9.85%)
Adjust time:   After 816 Blocks, About 13.6 days At 816 left or 1200 made we stop.
Hashrate(?):   582,755,708 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):  
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.1 minutes
6 blocks: 58.3 minutes
Updated:  



make your pick  in .1 slots

example:

+2.1 =  philipma1957  this means I would win from 2.10 to 2.19

please make your picks easy to enter

+8.8    = tss     is easy to click and drag  please do it this way


philipma1957   I would like +2.1        is more work to put in place. please don't write your pick this way



Just a note in the last two adjustments  we added 95 ph  that is a lot of s-7's and avalon 6's

the last 2 diff ajust were pretty big. Lets hope this one will be less.  ;)

well some quick math shows we added about 100 ph .

pretend it was all at .25watts per gh.

the other 470 ph before these jumps  was not a .50 watt average as some s-3's s 4's were mining so say :


470 ph of the network is doing .6watts 

100 ph of the network is doing .25 watts ----------------- there is a lot of incentive to go to .25 watt gear

a .25 watt s-7 paying 9 cents beats almost all .50 watt miners at they need to be down around 4.3 cents  not 4.5 cents since  space and wiring costs are higher.

one could argue we could add 100 ph in 1 month so why not add 100 ph the next month.

Thats so crazy, it's something like an additional 20'000 S7 on the network for 100 ph rounding 5 th per s7.  So we could by this logic add another 20'000 unit for December  :o :o :o or something.  I think the squeeze is really coming pretty hard as far as mining goes and we have good prices right now but if price falls ouch were going to be hurting.  But even the jump in price won't compensate for these gains

Last three adjustments add up to 27%.

Keep in mind that 9% after 10% is not 19% total but 19.9%... those percentages are deceivingly exponential.

On the other hand manufacturing and deployment is probably not exponential. So perhaps we are going to see additional 40-50 PH/s every round but the percentage will slow down.

Based on the idea that 125 ph from the last three adjustments is all .25 watts and

The other 450 ph on the network is .6 watts average. I can see room for lots of s-7s and Avalon 6s

Yeah, you could essentially double that 450 PH/s within the same space/power/cooling requirements. But man that's a lot of money to spend before halving. Not everyone is going to take that risk.

Funny that halving could come quite sooner than mid summer if we keep up this crazy jump in difficulty. Hopefully we won't but it has been larger than it has been in a long time.

I did a few calculations on that.  July 1 to 15 seem more likely  then July 16 to 31.

 If you do 7% every time it takes 13 days not 14

 So 14 or 15  adjustments  all a day shore mean we could move up 14 to 15 days.

But 1.07 x 1.07 x 1.07 x 1.07 x 1.07 x 1.07 x 1.07 =  1.606  and that is 7 adjustments not 14   so 1.606 x 1.606 =

2.58  which would mean diff would be 200 and gear hashing would be 1500ph

I frankly think those two numbers can not be  done.  I could see a diff of 100 to 110 and gear at 725ph to 750ph.

 If price holds over 400 or 500




However    we are still going up ,  boy  of boy  a  price crash to 180 like last Jan would be very interesting.

It would make all gear other then the s-7 and avalon 6  losing gear unless you have 8 cent power or better.

I was thinking along those lines yesterday... basically that would be the only reasonable way for me to ROI on Batch 1 S7 (in BTC terms). The one that I paid 8 BTC for. Arghhhhhh...

On the bright side, Batch 6 at 4 BTC is probably going to break even and might even make a coin or two if the resale value holds up.

Price seems to be setting in 390's.  Which is not to bad at all. I still want to see 400 +.

Were less then 5 dollars from it but I'm guessing there are some sell walls to break through.  Also it's still very early but here is bit wisdom.

So what are you Guys thoughts on how much of this increase is S7 and early Days Avalon6 based and to what degree we are beginning to see SP50 & Bitfury 16nm deployment, or.... is all that yet to come? I guess also at the moment, with the price the way it is, if farms have the space & power there will be very little old stuff being turned off which all adds up?

Rich

Well we moved more then 130ph

Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s  My s-7 and batch 1 s-7s  started coming in this jump

Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900   8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s

So most of it is s-7  I did look at s-7 btc addy on bitmaintech and I am well over 7000 s-7's based on btc deposits  so that is 35ph out in the open.

My readings and other info from posts and links  show over 5ph in  avalon6's  So that is easy 40ph  far under the 131ph added.

So 2x the 40ph = 80 ph   and I think 80 ph is too high for s-7+ avalon6  that leaves us 51ph 'missing'  .  I have to believe some is Bitfury + Sp50.

I would love to know if the sp50 does well under .2 watts as claimed.

Still even with 131 ph at highest efficiency 435 ph is not very high  we will go up.

 I do want:
260ph new
435ph old

around 700 total.

I am lazy but looking fast current prices of 390 usd would support  100 diff / 725ph.

a  1150 th machine with .51 watts the s-5 makes 20 usd a month at a diff of 100 a price of 390usd and power at 10 cents

So we certainly could approach  a diff of 100 and hash rate of 725ph in the early spring if price stays at 390 usd.

I can't believe the amount of hardware coming online, it's amazing.  I expected one large-ish jump but we've had several now and there's no immediate sign of slowing down.

Early spring will be very interesting to see if we are at the 100G diff threshold and on the cusp of the halving, I can't wait to watch that roller coaster.

Yes even with the new diff increase we are still at +5-6% for the day. Keeps going up and up.

Do you know when Bitmain will stop building the S7? I assume they only ordered a limited amount of the S7 ASIC chip. Once they run out, its going to cost millions to manufacteur more.

yeah that would be a nice piece of info to have. 


@ bitmaintech feel free to let me know how many more you will build.

And while you are at it  please put aside 2000 chips for sidehack.

Thank you sirs :)

Yeah !! please !! :P

i dont think bitmain expected these kind of sales.. i know i didnt.  that said im sure they will have an endless supply of chips ready for production as long as the btc keeps flowing in.  i may be a bit off but 1 btc per th is more expensive than miners cost 12 months ago.  correct me if im wrong.

What is the bitmain purchase BTC address again so we can calculate how many units of S7 were sold?

I think very wishful thinking on getting him some chips.  I'm actually surprised he got some on first round.  It would be great as I would love a POD out of some new chip. But i think scale is small where they can just as easy put it in their own machines and make more money chances are.

So I don't expect chip sales unless you show up with a lot of cash.    So no small order, order a batch and then they would do it chances are... but that is a lot of money to tie up.  And for community to round up that kinda cash not easy.

I just hope this week difficulty slows down a little bit.   I really want those 5 percents again, I liked those changes much better.

here https://blockchain.info/address/1KwA4fS4uVuCNjCtMivE7m5ATbv93UZg8V


sales started on 8/31/2015

https://blockchain.info/address/1KwA4fS4uVuCNjCtMivE7m5ATbv93UZg8V?offset=2800&filter=0

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

dec 6 >>> 157 blocks
dec 7 >>> 149 blocks


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty >>> (+8.00%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   79,102,380,900
Estimated Next Difficulty:   85,428,532,281 (+8.00%)
Adjust time:   After 1845 Blocks, About 12.7 days
Hashrate(?):   602,644,925 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.8 minutes
6 blocks: 59.6 minutes
Updated:   21:35 (2.8 minutes ago)

we are on block 171  we have about 3 days before picks begin.

coinbase is 393 usd

Looks like someone bought 1163 BTC worth today.

https://blockchain.info/tx/d63e1106480773a14307ea4eb5313f56769e6d3efe9ddac8a88a92157c4f64bb


How many miners is that?

 

300 to 325? 

 they have collected more then 35,000 btc  for s-7's  which could be 7000 units or about 35 ph

Order's like that on S7's and Avalon 6's could keep us at these high difficulty's.  I hope we lower it some, but I think what I wish and what happens are two different things.

Also price around 395ish most of day so pretty stable. But we just can't break that 400.   Once we do I think it will be interesting how fast it goes up.

Dang tss was close so close and yet so far
Either way I am looking forward to this round and that is a sexy rollover
Best of luck to all :)

Snapshot
Bitcoin Difficulty:    79,102,380,900
Estimated Next Difficulty:    85,948,698,837 (+8.66%)
Adjust time:    After 1779 Blocks, About 12.1 days

High price, efficient gear coming out, and cooler temps for a majority of the mining population equate to high difficulties for the whole winter I think.  This thing is going to keep climbing 'til the halving, because of the factors mentioned and probably because a lot of people are going to be in a push for the 25btc block reward while it exists.

since we have about 435ph older gear  and about 135ph newer gear

And my .25 watt s-7  at 10 cents is better then a washington state .51watt  s-5 at 5 cents   more gear will be added as long as price support is there.

395 usd is good for   ^ diff

Today is looking at another 15% day, wonder where all this huge hash power is coming from.

yeah 143 block made in 20 ½ hours  means a 160+ day.

price support is there so diff will rise.

Yeah looks like a +16 day but at least the price is $418 and rising.


No idea where this massive hash power is coming from.

Bitfury
sptech
knc
avalon sales ------------------ 14ph easy so say 20 ph
bitmaintech sales------------  35 ph easy so  say 50ph  

that is 70 ph  but network has added over  150ph   so 80 ph could the other builders and older gear getting fired back up and some over clock  


price was 230 diff was 56 on sept 4

price is 415   diff is 79  now        but to scale it should be 101  if diif were 101 right now  the price rise and the diff rise would be the same.

but I switch out from s-5 to s-7 and avalon 6 so power is better by 1.8  so 1.8 x 101 = 180

so for me to be equal to sept 4 diff needs to be 180 not 79.

rounding etc affects numbers but diff will rise. as of today the s-3 is turning profit of 3 usd a month over power costs if you have 12 cent power.

so a shit ton of s-3's are back up on line

a pencil mod s-1 is  making 29 cents a month if you have 8 cent power
a pencil mod s-1 is losing 70 cents a month if you have 9 cent power  but it gives more heat  it gives 129 kwatts of heat or close to 5 therms of heat  that is about 8 usd.

so at 415 a coin I can run s-1's in my house at a profit.  A lot of old gear makes money at the 400 dollar price point.

the s-1 turns a profit up to 16 cents a kwatt at 415.  once you factor in heat

I don't think people turning on their S1 would make a dent in the overall hashrate. How many of those S1 were actually produced? About 10,000 ?

That's only 1.8Ph/s which is like less than a 3rd of a percent of the overall hashrate. And most of those S1 are probably undervolted which would be like 0.1% of the overall hashrate.

Today was a 17.2% day!

more then 10ph

but all 1 watt gear works when we get over 400 usd if the owner has a cold home and there is a lot of 1 watt gear

Yep.  I can attest to that.  :) "free" heat is good

And I think there is a TON of a1 gear that fit's this catagory.  Think of all the different miners that used a1 chips... so scary amount.  I do think a lot never left china.  That there are a good amount of A1's sitting in basic data centers still making money.  Which is pretty darn impressive.

Price at 416... so tore through that 400 barrier. Cant wait to see what it does next.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

dec 6 >>> 157 blocks
dec 7 >>> 149 blocks
dec 8 >>> 171 blocks  
dec 9 >>> 174 blocks


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   79,102,380,900
Estimated Next Difficulty:   89,019,825,285 (+12.54%)
Adjust time:   After 1470 Blocks, About 9.3 days
Hashrate(?):   660,867,229 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.1 minutes
3 blocks: 27.2 minutes
6 blocks: 54.5 minutes
Updated:   1:15 (2.5 minutes ago)


picks start in 54 blocks 7-9 hours from this post.

I have taken the undervolting off my S3  :) Will be interesting to see if we can hold $400? £300 here we come...


Rich

Well 419 over night pretty close to 300 pounds.

Went down a little bit - 411.97  but still pretty darn good considering we broke 400.  We seem stable above it which is awesome, was not expecting that.

Bitwisdom is going up with value bump:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    79,102,380,900
Estimated Next Difficulty:    87,171,460,435 (+10.20%)
Adjust time:    After 1562 Blocks, About 10.2 days
Hashrate(?):    637,943,071 GH/s

Yesterday they sold 2279 BTC worth of miners.

https://blockchain.info/charts/received-per-day?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=1KwA4fS4uVuCNjCtMivE7m5ATbv93UZg8V


That is like at least 2PH/s worth in a single day. CRAZY! I am surprised they aren't sold out yet.

okay  with 23 hours in we did 163 blocks .   


387560 (Main Chain)   2015-12-09 22:48:05


387398 (Main Chain)   2015-12-09 00:00:02


so maybe 169-172 for today.  which is a big one again.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+11.28%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   79,102,380,900
Estimated Next Difficulty:   88,027,765,695 (+11.28%)
Adjust time:   After 1528 Blocks, About 9.8 days
Hashrate(?):   649,964,178 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.7 minutes
6 blocks: 55.4 minutes
Updated:   


In 112 blocks  picks will open.  So maybe  13-15 hours


and

 http://thehackernews.com/2015/12/fastest-d-wave-quantum-computer.html


the above may be the next break through

Makes you wonder, if they are selling this many S7s how many are they keeping for themselves? 

And how many more they plan on building.

If I were Bitmain I would sell every single one. Instant ROI with very little risk, no worries about halving or anything, and they can put all that money into the next gen hardware development.

And they can use the info they have learned from all the batches.  So they can make the best of the best for them self when they go to fill it up again.

So I agree lot's of good reasons to sell current stock of miners and replace.  And also they can do a even bigger batch and that brings down prices.  So it's pretty much all pro's besides a data center without miners in it temporary.

Estimated Next Difficulty:    88,956,343,073 (+12.46%)
Adjust time:    After 1478 Blocks, About 9.3 days
Hashrate(?):    650,676,357 GH/s

we are fucked! ;D

last 6blocks under 17minutes!

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

dec 6 >>> 157 blocks
dec 7 >>> 149 blocks
dec 8 >>> 171 blocks  
dec 9 >>> 174 blocks


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   79,102,380,900
Estimated Next Difficulty:   89,019,825,285 (+12.54%)
Adjust time:   After 1470 Blocks, About 9.3 days
Hashrate(?):   660,867,229 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.1 minutes
3 blocks: 27.2 minutes
6 blocks: 54.5 minutes
Updated:   1:15 (2.5 minutes ago)


picks start in 54 blocks 7-9 hours from this post.

Price is headed up at 418 right no and going up.   So makes sense difficulty will go up.

Hopefully we can add a little more value today to coins.  Time will tell.  But it's done a decent job going up in value.

1405 blocks so I think I can post / guess.

+12.1 =  zebedee

fcking nuts.  Bitcoin showing the world how the pundits suck at predicting anything.  Free market FTW.  Screw the central planners, including those in core dev.

oh well, seems that this diff will be even higher than the last 3

Hopefully the price continues to rise as difficulty does.

+14.8 = jonnybravo0311

+12.1 =  zebedee
+12.3 = philipma1957
+14.8 = jonnybravo0311

+13.3  = Tupsu

+17.7 = Chris_Sabian 

Hopefully, not that high !

I hope not but I need a guess...  This past summer and fall reminds me a little of the summer 2013.  There was a steady 5 - 10% increase in difficulty with steady prices and then 30-40% increases in the fall of 2013 when ASICS came out in force.

The cats are really hoping that things calm down. I hope so too because the litter box is getting hard to keep up with.

+10.1 = edonkey

if you stay with the same miner diff rises and you get deprecated into mining but if diff rises lower than price of THS to mine into the hardware you are all good and mining will prosper

+10.1 = edonkey

+12.1 =  zebedee

+12.3 = philipma1957

+13.3  = Tupsu

+14.8 = jonnybravo0311

+17.7 = Chris_Sabian

+10   = mavericklm

10x!  ;D

Man this hurt but I think it will be

+15 = HerbPean

+17.2  = d57heinz

Thanks again guys:).. i knew we would see some jumps but wow. this gonna be exciting if the price holds with the hash rate.  Glad i saved back a few coins:)

Best regards
d57heinz

+10.2 = needmoney

+12.9  =Forumgeiq

I am witnessing the biggest jump in hash in the last 12 months.this is insane, just take a look at bitcoinwisdom charts

+12.8  =radnom  please

+12.5  = Notlist3d

Thanks

+15.1 = psy0

Thank you!

+14.2 = 64dimensions

I almost think waiting till the end will be more beneficial here. I mean we could be on-par to a 20%+ if hashrate continues rising.

We went from 560PH to over 700PH in a week. Hell before halving we probably will have a network of 1EH (exahash).


Bitcoin Difficulty:   79,102,380,900
Estimated Next Difficulty:   91,824,247,179 (+16.08%)
Adjust time:   After 1375 Blocks, About 8.3 days
Hashrate(?):   701,506,574 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.7 minutes
3 blocks: 26.1 minutes
6 blocks: 52.2 minutes

+10.0   = mavericklm
+10.1 = edonkey
+10.2 = needmoney

+12.1 =  zebedee

+12.3 = philipma1957
+12.5  = Notlist3d
+12.8  =radnom--------------------------------new
+12.9  =Forumgeiq-----------------------------new

+13.3  = Tupsu
+14.2 = 64dimensions
+14.8 = jonnybravo0311

+15.0 = HerbPean
+15.1 = psy0-----------------------------------new
+17.2  = d57heinz

+17.7 = Chris_Sabian


okay people 3 new members  all joined the forum  this month  they are marked above.

I realize the prize is very good so new names are to be expected  but I will track and make adjustments if this pattern turns excessive  in fact I am inclined to not let any more new members pick this adjustment.
  The three in can stay in but no more new members is looking like it may happen here.

I'm sorry but those 3 new member should be removed ... check their post history, it's complete bullshit

the 3 post in the same thread for nothing (How much time have been logged into the forum ...) and one of them also posted a nude selfie of a female.. Nothing about bitcoin at all.

EDIT: I'm sorry Phil, I didn't put the 0 in my guess ! 15.0 ... /failed

+13.0  = Valkir

And I agree with HerbPean

+12.7% indiemax             


thanks

+18.5 - UfoRia

SP50's coming online :)


Ufo

Last week when I did it I marked lower members, and did not have any new accounts.  Lowest was 1 junior member.   I think someone is gaming system with the new accounts... on the highest prize so far.

I would agree at least this time with prize so high remove new account's and keep watch on lower the full-member.  But so many new so quick is not normal compared to other weeks.

+25.5%  goxed

btw any idea, whats' with this huge hashrate increase in the last 3days?

TODAY IS NUTS!!!

So far 43.8% for the day!!!


I will pick

+16.0 = adaseb

Agree, who is online? Mining is  once again cut-throat.

This is worth a shot. I say +13.2% (if still available). Good luck everyone.

---

---

Update:
Even though I changed my post before you posted the summary it is not a problem. Reverted to 13.2%.

I know of a very large mine that made comments about a large amount of SP50 arrivals this week. I would say re-tooling the mines and a good amount of luck, I "hope".



Ufo

Where did you hear this? On this forum somewhere ?

whaaaat the heeeeeeeeeeeck is this ?
https://gyazo.com/9d2c504bf5bb20bd121869c22a04dbd6

Are you guys seeing what I see ?

The whooole network just got about 30 %- 40 % hash rate !
Unbelivable !

+11.8 = flikflak

Eww 798 PH/s and 7.09 minutes between blocks (seen on blockchain stats for the last hour).

There is something in the air.

+10.0   = mavericklm
+10.1 = edonkey
+10.2 = needmoney
+11.8 = flikflak
+12.1 =  zebedee

+12.3 = philipma1957
+12.5  = Notlist3d
+12.7 = indiemax
+12.8  =radnom--------------------------------new
+12.9  =Forumgeiq-----------------------------new
+13.0  = Valkir

+13.2 = Lauda
+13.3 = Tupsu
+14.2 = 64dimensions
+14.8 = jonnybravo0311

+15.0 = HerbPean
+15.1 = psy0-----------------------------------new
+16.0 = adaseb
+17.2  = d57heinz

+17.7 = Chris_Sabian
+18.5 = UfoRia
+25.5 =  goxed

okay people 3 new members  all joined the forum  this month  they are marked above.

I realize the prize is very good so new names are to be expected  but I will track and make adjustments if this pattern turns excessive  in fact I am inclined to not let any more new members pick this adjustment.
  The three in can stay in but no more new members is looking like it may happen here.  Since suchmoon pays the btc I will defer to him on allowing the 3 new members to stay and have a shot.

 If he does not want them in I will drop them off. We have mention in more then one of these giveaways that a rush of new accounts would

call for action.   New members will not be accepted in this contest they will need at least one month old sign up and decent  posting.

I read one of these guys was posting nudes on his post I have to check that out. ( ho is a NO but a tasteful joke I could deal with.)  the nude in question was on the hot Aisn girl thread and he was quoting the nude posted to ask a question.  She was a small breasted women and he asked were are the boobs? I can fault him for liking larger breasts then her s.

For now I will wait to see what suchmoon wants to do with the three.

And I am banning any more from this point on during this adjustment period.

They are 3 fake new members imo but you're the master ;-)

No complains here :P

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1449778804

Well it's either a short term blip, or.... someone has just turned on a lot of Hash....


Rich

this can't be just a short term blip, it's tooo huuuge

Well I still consider myself to be new and am pleased to be part of this great game... so I vote that newbie's should not be allowed in the picks?

Rich

we made 185 blocks today and we have 3 hours and 20 minutes to go.

we will top 200 blocks for the first time in two years.

No more for this adjustment.  And suchmoon can decide about the three that are in.

I know you are new ti this game, but we don't allow picks to be changed.  so first pick of 13.2 stays.

we used to allow 1 change a piece but it was a crazy amount of work to track it.

+14.9 = Last of the V8s
pls and thx

+10.0   = mavericklm
+10.1 = edonkey
+10.2 = needmoney
+11.8 = flikflak
+12.1 =  zebedee

+12.3 = philipma1957
+12.5  = Notlist3d
+12.7 = indiemax
+12.8  =radnom--------------------------------new
+12.9  =Forumgeiq-----------------------------new
+13.0  = Valkir

+13.2 = Lauda
+13.3 = Tupsu
+14.2 = 64dimensions
+14.8 = jonnybravo0311
+14.9 = Last of the V8s
+15.0 = HerbPean
+15.1 = psy0-----------------------------------new
+16.0 = adaseb
+17.2  = d57heinz

+17.7 = Chris_Sabian
+18.5 = UfoRia
+25.5 =  goxed

okay people 3 new members  all joined the forum  this month  they are marked above.

I realize the prize is very good so new names are to be expected  but I will track and make adjustments if this pattern turns excessive  in fact I am inclined to not let any more new members pick this adjustment.
  The three in can stay in but no more new members is looking like it may happen here.  Since suchmoon pays the btc I will defer to him on allowing the 3 new members to stay and have a shot.

 If he does not want them in I will drop them off. We have mentioned in more then one of these giveaways that a rush of new accounts would call for action.    NO New members will not be accepted in this contest they will need at least one month old sign up and decent  posting.

I read one of these guys was posting nudes on his post I have to check that out. ( ho is a NO but a tasteful joke I could deal with.)  the nude in question was on the hot Aisn girl thread and he was quoting the nude posted to ask a question.  She was a small breasted women and he asked were are the boobs? I can fault him for liking larger breasts then her s.

For now I will wait to see what suchmoon wants to do with the three.

And I am banning any more from this point on during this adjustment period.
[/quote] No more for this adjustment.  And suchmoon can decide about the three that are in.

I hate to kick those three out after their entries were submitted and allowed under the then-valid rules. Let me think this over. It's not like we're running out of numbers to pick :-)

I was just pointing out that those accounts follow the same pattern of posting in the same thread .... they look fake.

I'm just saying, whatever you decide.

No complains here

That right here is just insane.  I really can't believe how fast the hash is still being added to the network.  We will be at 1 Exahash before the halving  :o

Yes we are rapidly moving towards the Halving happening before the Halving and then the Halving still to come.... if you follow me...  :(


Rich

Fair enough. I'll check that out later today when I get back to a bigger screen. Right now I'm on this wonky phone that hates me, so browsing the forum is painful.

/Highfive

looking at ANTPOOL, I can see they had an incredibly high luck in the past few hours, maybe this is what was causing the huge spike ?

https://gyazo.com/71637e0dbacd1bfde04f8dcba61f16f4

It is pretty impressive how big the prize is, and it really does seem to bring people in even quicker picking guesses.  I will be honest I hope for a roll over again :).  Just as it makes thread fun to watch.

I'm suprised price is at 416.  So hanging strong above the 400's no diving up and down.  Will be a interesting period to watch.

That's maybe 10 extra blocks.

Someone else must be having a lot of luck, or a lot of laugh at us muggles ;D

It's as if something has gone wrong with the difficulty? Everyone seems be doing well with virtually every block being found in well under the average 10 Mins?


Rich

Whaleclub TS



Ufo

Hopefully this hash tops out pretty soon 733 ph for the moment, It's soo hard to make a pick with these massive jumps.  If this trend sustains we could hit 100b difficulty in 3 weeks and then our throats are basically cut.

There is just that much hash being added to the network very quickly that is knocking out blocks at the pace they have. 

Feel bad for all those that ordered an S7 just recently. Lets hope the BTC price will continue to climb to absorb this ROI increase.

http://i63.tinypic.com/2zdwx7d.png

Can you send me the webpage that you use to see the ROI ?
Thanks

Are there any photos of these SP50's actually running?

A comment on Whaleclub Telegram and a giggle on TS are enough for me. There are several large miners in Whaleclub.....

I would expect a rise close to 500 in the next few weeks if we can break through the resistance at $425-440. The timing of the price rising and the slow increase of hashing rate is not a coincidence...


Ufo

http://www.nextdifficulty.com/

I have sold most of my S7 on hashnest, and just gonna let the rest ride these big spikes out. 

That being said, I am going to wait for this big increase to settle, and make my pick tomorrow.  Hopefully we've seen the worst of it!

What is this WhaleClub Telegram exactly? Some forums? Some IRC ? Some website?

Telegram Messenger is a chat program and Whaleclub is a Group that has a channel.

https://twitter.com/btcWhaleclub (https://twitter.com/btcWhaleclub)


Ufo

Can we change the rules of this game and make the winner the one that is being CLOSEST to the difficulty change ?

why ? that would remove the fun of it

200 BLOCKS WERE JUST SOLVED IN UNDER 24 HOURS!!

24 hour has us at 963,025.36 TH/s

goes right along with what your saying

Best Regards
d57heinz

edit wish i had waited on my pick.. :)  i think i was a bit conservative to say the least!

Best Regards
d57heinz

I think you mean 504 block average. Not difficulty.

Old mines that have been shut off coming back online due to the >$400 price?  Warehouses full of S7s/(insert other high efficiency miner) going through burn in?  Whatever it is, it's growth that the network has never seen before, pretty amazing.

With a run-up to around February I will not be surprised if the hash rate is close to 1.5-1.7 EH/s, yes Exahash.


Ufo

well we had a 215 block day it is impressive and there is more time left. for more blocks.

but we are not going to go from  700ph  to 1700ph  in the next 60 days or so.

before newest gear came out in sept.  we were at 430ph  so we have yet to match that 430 ph with the new gear.

I have to say https://blockchain.info/blocks


387770 (Main Chain)   2015-12-10 22:30:10

387566 (Main Chain)   2015-12-10 00:14:24

215 blocks with 90 minutes left = amazing

computer like D-Wave 2x   :o

could be this guy testing .. jk.. lmao  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1171307.0

Best regards
d57heinz

No. Stop believing the Quantum computer fairy tales. Quantum computers wouldn't be that much efficient in the process of mining even if they were available today, which they are not. Who knows how long it will take researchers to developer a properly functioning one (with the right amount of efficiency boost).

I concur; way too much. I don't think the manufacturers could produce so many miners in that amount of time either.

Today is done


Today was a RECORD BREAKING

+33% DAY!

I hope I can still enter. Even after the block smashing today has done.

+21.7 = ezeminer

lots of time blocks made are under 1000    and  1200 is cut off.

we did 225  blocks

+20.0 Kexkey

Woah I was away for a few days and when I am getting back the diff adjustment goes crazy!  Satoshi please do something!  ;)

+21.5 or as close to that as possible for wpt1wpt1

+17.8 = ingiltere

We'll definitely break record for difficulty in 2015. It's almost %100 guaranteed to get more than 10.44% which is the highest % of 2015 in November 24. Now expecting more than %15, that's crazy.

+10.0   = mavericklm
+10.1 = edonkey
+10.2 = needmoney
+11.8 = flikflak
+12.1 =  zebedee

+12.3 = philipma1957
+12.5  = Notlist3d
+12.7 = indiemax
+12.8  =radnom--------------------------------new
+12.9  =Forumgeiq-----------------------------new
+13.0  = Valkir

+13.2 = Lauda
+13.3 = Tupsu
+14.2 = 64dimensions
+14.8 = jonnybravo0311
+14.9 = Last of the V8s
+15.0 = HerbPean
+15.1 = psy0-----------------------------------new
+16.0 = adaseb
+17.2  = d57heinz

+17.7 = Chris_Sabian
+17.8 = ingiltere
+18.5 = UfoRia
+20.0 = Kexkey
+21.5 = wpt1wpt1
+21.7 = ezeminer
+25.5 =  goxed











okay people 3 new members  all joined the forum  this month  they are marked above.

I realize the prize is very good so new names are to be expected  but I will track and make adjustments if this pattern turns excessive  in fact I am inclined to not let any more new members pick this adjustment.
  The three in can stay in but no more new members is looking like it may happen here.  Since suchmoon pays the btc I will defer to him on allowing the 3 new members to stay and have a shot.

 If he does not want them in I will drop them off. We have mentioned in more then one of these giveaways that a rush of new accounts would call for action.    NO New members will not be accepted in this contest they will need at least one month old sign up and decent  posting.


For now I will wait to see what suchmoon wants to do with the three.

And I am banning any more from this point on during this adjustment period.
No more for this adjustment.  


And suchmoon can decide about the three that are in. He has posted that he is reviewing the 3 but is inclined to keep them.  He needs to look on a better screen then his cell phone

+21.4 = keystroke

This is crazy...

Thanks!

Ok, I don't like doing this but I have to agree with HerbPean. These are totally utterly worthless user accounts very likely farmed by the same person. It would be unfair to the other participants to leave them in so let's remove them.

***
+18.4 = VirosaGITS
***


This is INSANE.  :-\

Not sure what to think. This isint just S7/A6 being sold. Maybe the SP50 made their way to an industrial setup in massive quantity? The Gridseed supermega data center flipped the switch?


A while back i asked about measures to prevent people from entering multiple times. It did not seem like an issue at the time and thats the reply i got then. But seeing now how so many "new people" are showing up, i support "raising the bar" a bit.

+14.7 = Biodom

Is it not too late to pick?
Thanks

It's not too late to pick.

However it is too late for ROI, apparently. Especially for us poor schlubs who bought batch 1 S7s for 8 BTC each  :o

+16.1 = sloopy

This is going to be one heck of a rise.
I miss the summer as well as others heh, but the price is nice to see for a change in the action.

I hope we see something around 400 that sticks for a bit and levels out for a while for other variables to catch up and even out.

I am not surprised to see avalon holding hard at their price, but I thought they would try to be a bit more competitive.

Maybe we will see a fire sale and then a holding pattern for a month at least.

So many new miners too. It has been a rush of people who picked up S7s and built out 10 - 50 - 100 TH mines.

When there are 816 blocks left then the contest closes as stated on the first page.  Insane hash on the network, someone just flipped the switch on a mega farm or many mega farms.  This looks like a hash war

got 2 batch 1 but also a batch 4 for 3.6btc ... So avg cost went quite acceptable ;-)

I will tell them this if they are willing to give me their mailing addresses by 1200th block made also know as 816th blocks remaing.

 in case those  one of those picks win. I will send the winner  a compac usb stick. And they are not eligible for the btc award. All three newbies must satisfy this or all three will be eliminated.

I won't accept po boxes business  address only address with a real name.  BTW when I send  prizes out here and I have sent them out on more then one thread I always want a real name for a real address.

So in theory I need 3 verifed different addresses to award the stick.  Seems fair  .  and we can leave those as unpick-able picks so if they all give me real addresses for the stick up front.  and one of them wins they get a free stick.

but the .316 btc rolls over and next round I give away a new free stick.

No regulars get hurt and if they were all legit and one wins this time  they get a stick. It just means I give sticks away two times.

From the next contest on account must be  at least 1 full month and  a junior member and pre-vet with me via pm

+10.0   = mavericklm
+10.1 = edonkey
+10.2 = needmoney
+11.8 = flikflak
+12.1 =  zebedee

+12.3 = philipma1957
+12.5  = Notlist3d
+12.7 = indiemax
+12.8  =radnom------new---can not win btc prize>>> All three must contact with proof of address for usb prize before 1200th block
+12.9  =Forumgeiq---new-- can not win btc prize>>>>"    "        "        "         "      "      "     "       "    "     "       "          "         "
+13.0  = Valkir

+13.2 = Lauda
+13.3 = Tupsu
+14.2 = 64dimensions
+14.7 = Biodom
+14.8 = jonnybravo0311
+14.9 = Last of the V8s
+15.0 = HerbPean
+15.1 = psy0----------------new--can not win btc prize>>> "    "      "         "         "          "       "     "       "         "    "         "
+16.0 = adaseb
+16.1 = sloopy
+17.2  = d57heinz

+17.7 = Chris_Sabian
+17.8 = ingiltere
+18.4 = VirosaGITS
+18.5 = UfoRia
+20.0 = Kexkey

+21.4 = keystroke

+21.5 = wpt1wpt1
+21.7 = ezeminer
+25.5 =  goxed











okay people 3 new members  all joined the forum  this month  they are marked above.  suchmoon and I have decided what to do with prize btc and prize compac usb.

I realize the prize is very good so new names are to be expected  but I will track and make adjustments if this pattern turns excessive  in fact I am inclined to not let any more new members pick this adjustment.
  The three in can stay in but no more new members is looking like it may happen here.  Since suchmoon pays the btc I will defer to him on allowing the 3 new members to stay and have a shot.

 If he does not want them in I will drop them off. We have mentioned in more then one of these giveaways that a rush of new accounts would call for action.    NO New members will not be accepted in this contest they will need at least one month old sign up and decent  posting.

I have put down how those three new accounts will be handled.  AND no more new accounts
For now I will wait to see what suchmoon wants to do with the three.

And I am banning any more from this point on during this adjustment period.
No more for this adjustment.  


And suchmoon can decide about the three that are in. He has posted that he is reviewing the 3 but is inclined to keep them.  He needs to look on a better screen then his cell phone

Just something to think about for when the price really starts moving up. The hash rate is going to be unbelievable.

The halving ETA keeps moving closer and closer : 2016-07-21 12:10:50 UTC (31 weeks, 6 days, 12 hours, 40 minutes)

Network capacity is more as well as more space is available due to a larger number of blocks per fixed time period.

I see halving in early july.  I am not sure who's hash this is. if sp tech put the sp 50 batch out .  they may have been this bump

16.4 = vortexz

mmh, with the recent diff jump, i'm tempted for a crazy number, but i'll stay low, 16.4 for me

Amazing increase in difficulty. I rub my eyes: we've got +18.08%

If this trend continues, many people do not reach the ROI before Halving. Even with the steep increase in the value of BTC. It seems that even in January and February will see double-digit growth difficulties.

Isn't that a good thing however? You only paid around $1800 but you started mining in Oct when the difficulty was still slightly lower and now all your coins are worth more.

It was better buying the miner in Sept for $1800 then today for $1650.

I think what we have is a coincidence of events. The second wave of the price rise has been underway for a Month now and it has become obvious that any old  ASIC based Miner will make money. That has coincided with new releases, S7 and Avalon6 and I sure SP50 & Bitfury will also be having an impact.

A race has been on to get any and everything mining to make the most of the current price and the period of time between now and the Halving. Just looking at one Pool BW.COM which for Months was running at a steady 30PH now it is touching 50PH.


Rich

+18.8 = Swordsoffreedom


Estimated Next Difficulty:    93,403,235,071 (+18.08%)
Adjust time:    After 1260 Blocks, About 7.5 days

If the difficulty keeps rising like this I might need to start purchasing more coins as this is a strong indicator

Dec 06 2015    79,102,380,900    8.77%    566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015    72,722,780,643    10.44%    520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015    65,848,255,180    5.77%    471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015    62,253,982,450    2.25%    445,631,364 GH/s

wow.. crazy jump today.  almost 20 % at some point.. i really hope this is not a sign of what's to come. 
feeling there's a real separation between the retail bought equipment prices and insider/miner pricing and we are about to see the network effect of such.
the arms race seems to be in full effect till halving.. who knows what will happen then. 
on a brighter note, if we jump 20% every adjustment the price HAS to go up at some point. 

please lets keep all the noobs off this contest.  with such high reward the scammers and farmers will find and destroy this game soon enough.  it is worth much more than their usual scams.

Actually it doesn't. Look what happened in 2014. There were 20% diff jumps and 20% BTC price falls.

this is true.. but it was very overpriced by market standpoint then.. profit was very high then.. price was higher then and difficulty was less.

+18.6 = dukeneptun

Great for fast confirmations but bad for poor miners. I'm happy both difficulty and BTC price rise, though.

+10.0   = mavericklm
+10.1 = edonkey
+10.2 = needmoney
+11.8 = flikflak
+12.1 =  zebedee

+12.3 = philipma1957
+12.5  = Notlist3d
+12.7 = indiemax
+12.8  =radnom------new---can not win btc prize>>> All three must contact with proof of address for usb prize before 1200th block
+12.9  =Forumgeiq---new-- can not win btc prize>>>>"    "        "        "         "      "      "     "       "    "     "       "          "         "
+13.0  = Valkir

+13.2 = Lauda
+13.3 = Tupsu
+14.2 = 64dimensions
+14.7 = Biodom
+14.8 = jonnybravo0311
+14.9 = Last of the V8s
+15.0 = HerbPean
+15.1 = psy0----------------new--can not win btc prize>>> "    "      "         "         "          "       "     "       "         "    "         "
+16.0 = adaseb
+16.1 = sloopy
+16.4 = vortexz
+16.5 = amph ------------gave  you this number as vortexz was ahead of you
+17.2  = d57heinz

+17.7 = Chris_Sabian
+17.8 = ingiltere
+18.4 = VirosaGITS
+18.5 = UfoRia
+18.6 = dukeneptun
+18.8 = Swordsoffreedom
+20.0 = Kexkey

+21.4 = keystroke

+21.5 = wpt1wpt1
+21.7 = ezeminer
+25.5 =  goxed











okay people 3 new members  all joined the forum  this month  they are marked above.  suchmoon and I have decided what to do with prize btc and prize compac usb.

I realize the prize is very good so new names are to be expected  but I will track and make adjustments if this pattern turns excessive  in fact I am inclined to not let any more new members pick this adjustment.
  The three in can stay in but no more new members is looking like it may happen here.  Since suchmoon pays the btc I will defer to him on allowing the 3 new members to stay and have a shot.

 If he does not want them in I will drop them off. We have mentioned in more then one of these giveaways that a rush of new accounts would call for action.    NO New members will not be accepted in this contest they will need at least one month old sign up and decent  posting.

I have put down how those three new accounts will be handled.  AND no more new accounts
For now I will wait to see what suchmoon wants to do with the three.

And I am banning any more new members from this point on during this adjustment period.
No more for this adjustment.  

vortexz has that pick I gave you 16.5

+18.7 = Tmdz

Analysis:  big time megafarm went online, maybe multiple branches but it seems as the hast was synchronized and dumped at the same time, possibly to give them that lead time.  Hash spiked and now the chart is moving sideways, I expect minimal movement at this time but btc went up to 435 so this hash can definitely stay at current prices.  My pick is an effort to sneak into the mid 18's

+20.7 radiumsoup

(not sure if by "new" people you mean new to bitcointalk or new to these threads, so if it's "no new folks to this thread", then sorry for intruding - seems like a fun game, though, even if it's a bit depressing at this level)

I'm talking about ROI in raw BTC terms, not fiat. It was already a pretty big risk that brand new B1 S7s would make back their cost in BTC. With the insane difficulty rise it's a lot less likely.

Sure if I look at the fiat value of BTC mined so far from my S7s, I'm about halfway to ROI (if the price holds). But in the end I would have been better off buying BTC at October prices instead of hardware.

With this game you're either speculating on the difficulty or the price. My BTC ROI calculations were based on a reasonable historic difficulty times 2. Boy was I off this time...

If the price holds, it looks like I'll be selling BTC instead of holding, in order to get back ROI.

 

you are okay  these were 3 new forum members with less then a week on site.

I can't believe you're not going to let me create a whole bunch of alt accounts and post here to increase my chances!!!  That's so unfair!!!  /sarcasm.

Hey I am still offering them a chance win the usb stick  so far none of them have given me a  mailing address. ;)

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

Dec   6 ---157
Dec   7 ---149   + 5
Dec   8 ---171   +27
Dec   9----174   +30
Dec 10----212   +68
Dec 11
Dec 12
Dec 13
Dec 14
Dec 15

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+18.25%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   79,102,380,900
Estimated Next Difficulty:   93,538,750,120 (+18.25%)
Adjust time:   After 1202 Blocks, About 7.1 days
Hashrate(?):   721,254,046 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.5 minutes
3 blocks: 25.5 minutes
6 blocks: 51.0 minutes
Updated:   

we dropped off a lot today from the smoking crazy hot 212 block number


https://blockchain.info/blocks

387886 (Main Chain)   2015-12-11 16:28:17

387782 (Main Chain)   2015-12-11 00:00:05

105 blocks in 16 hours and 50 minutes  we should be  101  so we are at a   148 block pace.


to be able to go to 215 then to 148 can only mean a huge farm or two farms.

My Chinese ghost city filled with old gear and  a second unknown farm of sp50s ?


price at coinbase 439

+13.1 = cakir

Let's get some optimistic about this time :) (I hope it won't rise %20+...)

Variance ;D

i kind of heard also something about sp50...
actually there was silence(because they sign an non-disclosure agreement) and no denying ;D

+15.2 = Mikestang

I remember posting about 100G network difficulty a month or two ago and people responded like well that's crazy, we'll never get that high, way too much hash required, etc. etc. and now we are on the cusp of that number.  A few more big jumps and 100G it will be.

It's not so much the percentage change that is amazing, but the shear amount of hash being added.  It's like the entire network of only a year ago was re-added to the current network in one adjustment period and that's insane.

Wow we may never even see an 8x billion diff.  going from 79 to somewhere in the 90's

yikes.

+15.5 = Account Supplier

+12.2 = herzlos1985

Holy crap guys! Were at 448 at coinbase.  Were talking about possibly breaking 450 today.

That is huge! Expect high difficulty for sure with this going on.

+22.2 = Kipper01

 ::)

Go Home or go Broke

Day is over

Today was only

+9.4%

2h ago i went for a beer and diff was at +17%... and now:

Estimated Next Difficulty:    94,151,861,522 (+19.03%)
Adjust time:    After 1145 Blocks, About 6.7 days
Hashrate(?):    715,979,336 GH/s

Thank your for doing this.  I think looking into it for all future ones might be a decent idea.  Just seems odd we get 3 when week before we had none, but it is a even higher prize so could be coincidence but I normally dont believe in coincidence.

Price is going down some looks like were around 421 now.. so not the 450 we had earlier.  But still nice.

Bitwisdom is scary to be honest:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    79,102,380,900
Estimated Next Difficulty:    93,211,306,663 (+17.84%)
Adjust time:    After 1123 Blocks, About 6.7 days
Hashrate(?):    707,439,362 GH/s

Well all three newbies have yet to pm me about being allowed to win the usb stick. (They would need to give me a mailing address for the stick to be sent now rather then later)

  which makes me think we did the correct thing here.

Im sure they all had the same address  ;)

+17.4 =bctmke

Bitwisdom is a scary number to see.... I did not expect to see that.  Is this cray numbers the new norm?

I like the btc price of 426, but wish difficulty would slow down.  I want to mine some more coins before it does these jumps.

+19.9 = wlefever for me please.  I was going to go in the +17% range, but I just keep thinking this one will stay where it's at or higher than 19%.   :(

Satoshi save the small miners....

We could end two days earlier at this rate.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   79,102,380,900
Estimated Next Difficulty:   94,459,354,942 (+19.41%)
Adjust time:   After 1027 Blocks, About 6.0 days
Hashrate(?):   707,629,395 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.4 minutes
3 blocks: 25.1 minutes
6 blocks: 50.2 minutes

+20.5 = The Young Turk

It'll be huge this time :)

This is going to be brutal!!!

+18.0 = alh

Long term, I hope my guess is wrong........

+19.8 = n3o111

This difficulty raise is crazy. I'm glad I don't have any mining equipment. :D

Today is done also

Today was a +10.56% day

End of day still crazy difficulty.... I hope we go down but don't expect it.

I still wonder on price where we will end up at end of period.  430 right now is not bad.  I'm happy I kept coins through the 230 day's to say the least.

+17.5 = Dexter770221

This one will be gentle compared to next one. ~400PH almost ready to go online...
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/bitfury-opening-third-carbon-neutral-bitcoin-mining-operation-georgia-1532998

maybe this one was already bitfury ?

Looking at the pool Comparison I think the recent stuff has been AntPool & F2pool. Bitfury yet to come....

Rich

dammit.
how much does 400 PH mean ? a 50 % diff increase ?

50MW is not 400Ph/s, it is probably more 150Ph/s, or ~200Ph/s at most(at 0.25J/Gh efficiency)

+9 = pusttiu

Well I have left it as long as I can, but it's still not easy to choose.... However the new system working well with plenty of choices left.  :)

+17.6 = RichBC

Thanks

+15.7 = alfacro

Bitwisdom just keeps looking more scary:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    79,102,380,900
Estimated Next Difficulty:    93,460,256,165 (+18.15%)
Adjust time:    After 856 Blocks, About 5.0 days
Hashrate(?):    638,246,465 GH/s

At least were still hanging around 435.  So decent value. But this period on difficulty will hurt.

+16.6 = Lboss ( again last minute )

I didnt expect such a great jump. Hopefully price continues to support the diff change. Otherwise its bad for miners who especially bought via BTC  :(

This is nice to see.

30 mins the day is ending and ill post the tally for the end day.


http://i66.tinypic.com/do55he.png

Positively pedestrian. Unfortunately the next 6 Blocks went through in 22 Minutes... :(


Rich

+15.3 = ailikun

I hope it won't rise more then 20%.
Because then its absolutely nuts :-\

+16.7 = lanfeusst

Today is over and it was a good day

-2.1%

We are about 25 blocks away from closing the contest.

You have approximately until 5AM UTC / Midnight EST to post your guess if you haven't done so yet.


Newbie members are not eligible, sorry.

It's far above my pay grade but I really suggest looking at keeping this rule on future ones aswell.  It just seems allowing newbie is to easy to game system.  Higher level does not make it perfect... but at least they had to put some time into it.

Still high 430's , 438 to be exact.  I'm hoping after change we see a jump to 450 but I don't know that it will happen.

I am too late so just for entertainment purposes I have to say +29% ...

All the picks are in so good luck to everyone! We almost lost about another day this round : Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-07-21 03:33:34 UTC

Jeez...
It looks like it really might be a 20% difficulty jump this time.

I thought i would never see those kind of difficulty changes, anymore.

Good news is price broke into the 440's.  Right now where hitting 445.

So could be interesting to watch we might hit the 450 mark I have been wanting to see.  I think this difficulty will hurt but price will go up.

Thats why i think the chess move now is to buy coins.. let the manufacturers fight it out.  My opinion would be if you have to buy a machine wait till end of january or so.. That way you can get the miner at the lowest cost. And at that point diff would hope to level off for a while..  There is no way you can mine back 40 % in a month of miner cost if we keep seeing these crazy jump.. Im waiting till the network hits around 850 - 900 peta before i look again at miners.

Good luck to all this round.. looks like i was once again conservative.. will have to rethink my strategy for next round.. if the pattern hold i look for them to turn back on soon before the next diff adjustment.

Best Regards
d57heinz

even if we do 20%  do not forget the monster 1 day 212 blocks made  if it was bitfury doing a test .  It means they can do 180 to 250 more ph then what  we will  jump to in a few days.

Estimated Next Difficulty:   93,646,950,212 (+18.39%)  and about 700ph.

So say the above happens and one day 1 of the next jump bitfury adds 200 ph

we would then go to 110 diff  and 900ph the next jump.

The above case is not unrealistic.

d57heinz PPN method of prediction  may prove very good.

It wouldn't make sense for them to dump all their hash online at once, that kind of shock to the difficulty would have a huge impact on their earnings, so it makes sense that they ramp it up slowly and not shock the network into large adjustments that affect everyone's bottom line.

I am not sure it matters much to try and "time" when you add hash. If one entity can add enough hash to raise difficulty by 21%, I don't know if there is a lot of reason to make that two 10% steps, or a single step of 21%. BitFury can also see that Bitmain is adding hash at hefty pace via it's S7 deliveries (internal or external), so maybe there isn't much value in trying to "ramp up slowly". After all, is Bitmain going to alter their plans for S7 deliveries based on BitFury actions?

Right now, I think the "ASIC arms race" is fully underway, and it will be a while for it to "exhaust itself" to a situation like the first 6 months of 2015.  The big vendors might be VERY worried about the impact the halving will have on their ability to price miners. They might well want to transfer all that risk to their customers, and not have a lot of S7's waiting to sell in April.

I think at the moment it's simpler than that and if you have the miners than you add them as quickly as you can. The sooner they are hashing the more money you will make.

I suspect the only factor limiting a BitFury or KNC is first having the Miners and then the facility and staff to get them up and running.

Rich

well it has made these threads a lot more interesting.

I wonder how price will hold under all this action.

I think the timing of introducing LARGE amounts of hash power is something that they consider.  The longer you can mine at a lower difficulty the better your bottom line is.  I'm sure there's an analysis a large ASIC company can perform to show them just how much hash to add how fast in order to maximize their return.  When you are adding hundreds of petahash you better be looking at stuff like this or you're dumb at business.

It really is all just a race to mine as many coins as they can before the halving.  Other than running profit numbers on effieciency right now, I really just think their intent is to get as much out of the next 7 months as they can before assessing where the price of BTC is at post halving.

I think it always has been a race between companies.   This has not changed only change was the companies seem to change sometimes.

Also right now companies are trying to make money with newer chips that they likely spent a ton on R/D.  So  getting it out quick and first is a good way to pay off that R/D cost.

Yeah it is like they all paced themselves from February to September then they turned into sprinters.

That is a massive and scary number to see.  I honestly never thought I would see these numbers again, thinking the network was big enough it would be to hard to do.... it appears I am wrong.

Multiple companies pumping out ton of gear... and we get this.

Very exciting indeed. So are we are about lockstep with Moore's law now? I guess some manufacturers managed to get efficiency gains without higher density lithography but I have not closely followed any individual product lines. In other words, when can we expect improvements to SHA-256 ASICs to happen on predictable timescales that are equivalent with the rest of the semiconductor industry?

Price is $453 and holding.

Estimated Next Difficulty:    93,957,646,968 (+18.78%)
Adjust time:    After 605 Blocks, About 3.5 days
Hashrate(?):    673,871,357 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 8.3 minutes
3 blocks: 24.9 minutes
6 blocks: 49.7 minutes
   
with the actual btc price... what should we expect!?!?!?

Things will get interesting in the next two days. :)


UfoRia

Wow... Is there no end to the excitement? Just up in the UK and we are over £300, do not think it will hold this time as there is a lot of selling pressure. Massive one day difficulty increase and instead of Batches of S7 having a different spec they now have a lower price. Tricky to keep tabs on everything that is happening.  :)

Rich

I feel the price has a bit more steam yet,the last run up has been much more controlled than the November spike and more people should hold their nerve.
No doubt the miners see this and want to dump coins but know if they flood it,the price will crash
I'm sure they are dumping  on the way up to take advantage of the price,the longer it lasts the better for everyone

 After the next generation - though for BitFury and KnC it appeares they are already building that generation, with Innosilicon looking likely to join them in a few months.

 When full-custom 14/16nm becomes widespread, we'll be "caught up" on current tech and mining innovation should slow down lots - and difficulty should flatten out into a long "slow rise" period.

95,163,423,723 (+20.30%)

Anything under +20% please! Lol on a serious note, I never saw this amount of hash added at once in 2015 to be possible, but I truly have been proven wrong!

Looks like I will buy some coins before any more mining equipment.

The day is only 2/3rd of the way done but so far we are at +34 %

my thoughts are this is bitfury putting the 175ph to 225 ph farm online  it is a 50 Mega-Watt farm and it is real.  SO unless it burns to the ground due to bad wiring  we will get a 20% or more jump.

But there is an interesting thing  before new gear back in sept we had 405ph all at .5 watts or worse.

It will go offline if price does not move over 500 usd.

An s-3   loses money at  500 gh 400 watts  at 10 cents a kwatt  at a diff of 101 with the current price of 457 so the s-3 will give up the ghost next jump.

there was about 60ph in s-3's

So when the gets over  100 diff which it will by years end older gear will drop off.

It is crazy.  If they can a dataccenter with that much power.  It is crazy.  I just am happy SP team has not got SP50 out yet.  Imagine it jumping in to this.

Good news is we are hitting over 460.. so good.  But the difficulty is crazy.

I think one of us gonna win this time :)

Mining at 13.5 cents per kWh and an efficiency of 0.25 J/GH you need a difficulty of 285,605,589,549 to break even at today's price of $460..

How do you know they sold 133,333 Antminer S3's ? Seems like it would take a really really long time to produce that many S3.

I know they did quite a bit of them.  I tracked sales at the addresses they used for payments.  And remember they  sold at  pretty low prices for a while.

They were a big improvement over the s-1  and the s-1 sold 20ph worth of units.  

back to blocks made today

https://blockchain.info/blocks

388619 (Main Chain)   2015-12-15 23:09:55
388441 (Main Chain)   2015-12-15 00:04:02

above we did 179 blocks today  with 50 minutes left so at least +35 blocks for the day.

coins are at 464.

at everybody if coin price drops to 275 or 230  what would you do?

There are big farms like the one HaoBTC runs that are filled with S3s at less than $0.03/kW, so this isn't the end of the S3 by a long shot, we will still see multi-PH on the network from them.  Plus they are still a great machine for the hobbiest who seldom doesn't care about price to operate (and also doesn't make up a significant network percentage).

(pict from HaoBTC thread)
https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FsCGDR4b.jpg&t=559&c=JEuxRGOcPfP6jQ

Do you know approx how many units of the Antminer S2 they sold ?

I did a break down on them but I can't remember how well they sold.

Today is over and overall +20.9%

So most likely the diff jump will be somewhere around that area.

It will be probably more than 20 percent but I picked 17.8 so I hope somebody shut down their miners. :D

Personally I think it takes quite a while for gear to truly disappear from the network. With a BTC price in excess of $450, and locations where it's not hard to get electricity for less than $.05, lots of gear can still turn an operating profit. In addition, if a piece of gear gets sold, not destroyed, then it will be restarted. Nobody buys a miner with the intention of scrapping it. They are going to mine with it, even if it's at a tiny, or non-existent profit.

Sure a lot of big mining farms have gotten rid of their S3's and even S5's. If they sold them, then all they did was delay when and where they would hash. Only if they crushed them or recycle the hardware, did the hash actually disappear.

Look at all the interest by folks on setting up mining gear, with visions of a money-printing machine. Rising BTC price makes hash continue that might not otherwise.

It's scary but some might after this 20 percent jump.  But chances are they wont with current price.

At 463 were doing pretty good.  Not long ago we were at 320 for the longest time.  It as very stable there.  Now it's lots of jumps.

Price at 449 currently.... it took a little dive :(.  Not fun to watch it go down.  hopefully stays up as this difficulty needs it.

I'm wondering what caused the downward trend any info out there on why?

I don't know, just normal stuff i guess?

If you look at;
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/btcusd

6, 4, 2, 1hour... its all the same. Goes up a bit, goes down a bit less, goes up a bit more, goes down a bit less, over and over. And this one right now is pretty small, so i'm not worried.

I was just thinking of something random but, right now the average miner makes 0.0063 per TH, after adjustment if at 94B it'll be 0.0053

Crazy nuts.

Its still better then the average revenue that miners made throughout most of 2015, which was 0.01 BTC/THs but price was less than half.

Other than the Chinese "we can now take fiat currency again" announcements that caused the initial spike, I'm still trying to figure out why prices have climbed.
There has been ZERO positive news for Bitcoin lately, and still getting those rumbles out of the EU about "planning tighter regulation for anti-terrorist reasons" crap.


 Only thing I can think of (other than crazy Chinese investor speculation, or a BIG pump-and-dump) is that the Chinese economy might be tanking more than their government censorship is letting anyone know about.

id say we might be in trouble  :-\

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20151216005453/en/BitFury-Announces-Mass-Production-Fastest-Effective-16nm
"Leading Bitcoin Blockchain Transaction Processing Company Will Bring Chip To Market In First Quarter of 2016 Through Integration And Reseller Partners"

best regards
d57heinz

Well they say they will sell chips.

If they sell chips better gear will be available.

We are going to have a very interesting six months.

Also notice they said they launched a 40 mega watt farm.

This is those crazy high jumps to 190 -  210 blocks

Aww, let say they can manage 0.1 J/GH @ wall, so we will see with this 40 MW farm another 400 PH/s soon.

It really is crazy looking at the blocks.  I sent a payment today... conformations so fast it was ridiculous.

I don't know if I would believe everything they say they will sell.  Sometimes they change their mind.  Remember they said they would sell that lightbulb?  I would still buy one for fun of it but they never sold them.   So I will need to see them selling to others to believe, and I'm guessing if you buy from them and they do it your getting a considerable amount of the batch.

We have been seeing 180 to 220 ph so maybe 40mw and .1 gh are not true.

But the 180 to 220 ph jump on those 195 block days is real.

There is a plus side to this as this jump may be the last super jump for a month or so.

I think the s-7 is going to drop a lot in price.

The other big question is what will they sell to the public, and how competitive will their prices be?  I wanted to buy some S7, but I tend to agree their price is likely to go down even more early next year.  I think I will wait that out.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   79,102,380,900
Estimated Next Difficulty:   94,510,726,554 (+19.48%)
Adjust time:   After 355 Blocks, About 2.1 days
Hashrate(?):   719,009,847 GH/s

Finally it's under 20 percent again. I hope it goes down to 17.89 percent on Friday. :D

yeah mine what you got and hold at least ½ the coins.



Note:

I cleaned up thread and deleted posts meant for other thread.

Today is almost over and blocks are at about 165  this would mean bitfury powered the immersion 40 MW  mine off.

I would if they are having an over heating issue.  Someone needs to see how cold it is at the new  mine  in

 Tbilisi, Georgia


http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/UGTB/2015/12/17/MonthlyCalendar.html?req_city=Tbilisi&req_statename=Georgia&reqdb.zip=00000&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=37545#calendar


dec 1   41-48    170
dec 2   37-51    158
dec 3   39-44    141
dec 4   35-42    154
dec 5   33-46    173
dec 6   28-48    157
dec 7   37-46    149
dec 8   41-51    171
dec 9   39-50    174
dec 10 37-41    212   cold day best test?
dec 11 30-42    157
dec 12 26-44    169
dec 13 28-50    137    hotter day backed off?
dec 14 26-42    197   cold day good test?
dec 15 30-50    185    does not quite match
dec 16 33-46


I can't quite correlate  temps with blocks worth a shot to keep looking at it.

11.1% day today.

Not good but not bad either.

Sad but that seems pretty great right now.  I would settle for 11 over the near 20.  Near 20 really does scare me.

Btc still on a slow slide its around 450 so not bad.  But 460 was nicer.

is still to be accounted? because it look again 80B the diff, it should be near 90B

with that diff, the s7 is losing 1/10 of its haspower

well, to be fair... *everything* is losing a relative share of the aggregate hashpower, not just the S7s.

(Over 2 months)

No real need to complain, so far the BTC price has more than kept up with the difficulty raise. After the next diff increase in 1~ day, the difficulty will have raised by 50% for a 35%~ loss in BTC income.

However the value of BTC has literally doubled (from 220$ usd~ to 440$~ usd), so anyone who were planning to ROI their miners when calculated at 220$ made bank by now.

It was stable at 230 for the longest time.  I have to remind myself this when I look at that crazy difficulty coming.

And all the miners who mined during 230 and made profit... now are looking good.  To double your USD value is very big and hard to do in most investments.  So a huge upswing on your holdings.

It was an interesting time for sure.  The difficulty doubled in what, 1 year?  The price was pretty stable around the ~$230 point for most the time.  There were a few increases and decreases but stable all around.  I didn't mine much because it was summer and I didn't need the extra heat.

Today is done at +6.5%


Less then 24 hours left. Most likely it will be between +17-19%


Good luck to all who chose those numbers.

I am in that range.  I suppose it is good luck for those who picked but it is rather bittersweet...

Yea honestly it's hard to be happy when it's in that area.  I hope it goes down next period.

Value over 450 so still doing ok. But not enough if 20ish becomes the new normal.

+17.7 = Chris_Sabian
+17.8 = ingiltere
+18.0 = alh
+18.4 = VirosaGITS
+18.5 = UfoRia
+18.6 = dukeneptun
+18.7 = Tmdz
+18.8 = Swordsoffreedom


Five more blocks!



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyBitcoin Difficulty:   79,102,380,900
Estimated Next Difficulty:   93,452,351,318 (+18.14%)
Adjust time:   After 5 Blocks, About 42.8 minutes

Right now 18.14% is a rollover number.

That would bring us to 0.416 btc prize.

Wow... this is getting intense. :)

Looks like only +18.0 = alh has a chance, or were rolling over! Only 4 blocks left and its looking like it will fall below 18%.

Edit:
Bitcoin Difficulty:   79,102,380,900
Estimated Next Difficulty:   93,451,410,799 (+18.14%)
Adjust time:   After 3 Blocks, About 25.6 minutes

Or they will hit fast, and go back over 18.1% dun dun dun

Estimated Next Difficulty:    93,413,382,189 (+18.09%)
Adjust time:    After 4 Blocks, About 34.2 minutes
Hashrate(?):    640,610,411 GH/s

~half of an hour!!!

might see  small bump to put us at a rollover. Nethash for 24 hour is 715 peta.. so a slight increase is possible.. Although we are running out of blocks for that:)

Best Regards
d57heinz

One block left and depending on the timing we have a winner or not!!

Bitcoin Difficulty:   79,102,380,900
Estimated Next Difficulty:   93,437,311,288 (+18.12%)
Adjust time:   After 1 Blocks, About 8.5 minutes
Hashrate(?):   644,987,675 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.5 minutes
3 blocks: 25.6 minutes
6 blocks: 51.2 minutes
Updated:   14:5 (3.3 minutes ago)

EDIT:
ANOTHER ROLLOVER!  
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796   18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s

time was a little long 12 minutes that may have dropped to 18.09

no another rollover we must have needed 20  or 25 minutes to get alh home.

Nope you were right on with your earlier post of 18.14% that deserves some kind award haha

 So we rollover  and bump to 0.416.

I will lock this and open new thread.


Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate


Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796   18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s



Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900   8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643   10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s


new thread link:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1294704.0