Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: MTBTT on December 12, 2015, 04:30:53 AM



Title: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: MTBTT on December 12, 2015, 04:30:53 AM
Starting to crash? Or just a short term price adjustment?

Large amounts of coins dumped.


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: cryptasm on December 12, 2015, 04:31:47 AM
Could be anything right now, I would keep my fingers from trading when btc goes so crazy


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: MTBTT on December 12, 2015, 04:33:26 AM
Could be anything right now, I would keep my fingers from trading when btc goes so crazy

$50 gone within an hour. Thoughts?


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: oblomov on December 12, 2015, 04:53:10 AM
I think the top is in for a few days at least, if not a few weeks.

Some moves by central banks and policy makers underway this weekend to rescue the stock market and high yield debt.

BTC is the new gold... major dislocations in the commodities & equities markets and gold barely moves 1%


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: TERA on December 12, 2015, 04:58:48 AM
It's probably the start of a long sideways period.


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: MTBTT on December 12, 2015, 05:00:48 AM
It's probably the start of a long sideways period.

Hmm what do you mean by sideways? :P


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: suda123 on December 12, 2015, 05:05:32 AM
Starting to crash? Or just a short term price adjustment?

Large amounts of coins dumped.
fake volume pump to short profit, or something big is going on


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: hunnaryb on December 12, 2015, 05:08:46 AM
Everyone is too bullish, more down to come.


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: notme on December 12, 2015, 05:22:20 AM
It's probably the start of a long sideways period.

Hmm what do you mean by sideways? :P

To the right.


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: MTBTT on December 12, 2015, 05:23:27 AM
It's probably the start of a long sideways period.

Hmm what do you mean by sideways? :P

To the right.

Um, Ok?

Back up to $435+ then down to $430 again.


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: TERA on December 12, 2015, 05:24:51 AM
Anything can happen in Bitcoin. It might go to the left.


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: RyNinDaCleM on December 12, 2015, 05:28:04 AM
Anything can happen in Bitcoin. It might go to the left.

Back in time? I thought only Adam's magical fireworks chart could do that?  :D


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: Was on December 12, 2015, 05:30:39 AM
Can't go down to much past 400. Have you seen the difficulty? Its going crazy and miners cant fine for free. They add hash power with the intention of selling for the price at the time that they added the GH/s. I think what we're seeing is organic upward pressure, increased positive news coverage, and amongst the financial community at that; those guys have money, right?.

Coupled with the fact that its's becoming more and more expensive to mine for a profit, especially since the halving is coming up.

Brace for launch long term (and great volatility 2016).


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: TERA on December 12, 2015, 05:34:06 AM
Can't go down to much past 400. Have you seen the difficulty? Its going crazy and miners cant fine for free. They add hash power with the intention of selling for the price at the time that they added the GH/s. I think what we're seeing is organic upward pressure, increased positive news coverage, and amongst the financial community at that; those guys have money, right?.

Coupled with the fact that its's becoming more and more expensive to mine for a profit, especially since the halving is coming up.

Brace for launch long term (and great volatility 2016).
This is exactly what was said at $800 in 2014.


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: RyNinDaCleM on December 12, 2015, 05:35:48 AM
Can't go down to much past 400. Have you seen the difficulty? Its going crazy and miners cant fine for free. They add hash power with the intention of selling for the price at the time that they added the GH/s. I think what we're seeing is organic upward pressure, increased positive news coverage, and amongst the financial community at that; those guys have money, right?.

Coupled with the fact that its's becoming more and more expensive to mine for a profit, especially since the halving is coming up.

Brace for launch long term (and great volatility 2016).

Difficulty does not drive price. This has been hashed  (;D ) out at great length. It simply is not the way it works.


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: notme on December 12, 2015, 05:36:24 AM
Can't go down to much past 400. Have you seen the difficulty? Its going crazy and miners cant fine for free. They add hash power with the intention of selling for the price at the time that they added the GH/s. I think what we're seeing is organic upward pressure, increased positive news coverage, and amongst the financial community at that; those guys have money, right?.

Coupled with the fact that its's becoming more and more expensive to mine for a profit, especially since the halving is coming up.

Brace for launch long term (and great volatility 2016).
This is exactly what was said at $800 in 2014.

+1

If you try to justify prices based on some sort of mining cost floor, you're gonna have a bad time.

Commodities markets have shown many periods in history where the price of a good falls below the production cost.  When supply exceeds demand, selling at a loss is better than not selling at all when you have bills to pay.


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: MTBTT on December 12, 2015, 05:38:16 AM
Down from $430 to $425.

GG.


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: MTBTT on December 12, 2015, 05:55:35 AM
Will go down to $400-$415.  We'll see if that holds.  If so, then it's a short term adjustment, otherwise, the lower major bid support is at $350.  I got out too late.  Got out at $440, going to try and play the bounce from $416 back up to $430, and then will try get back in lower at $400ish.

It's a good day for trading!

Looks like my prediction was perfect.  Easy ~ $200 profit just in the last 10min.  Looks like we're going to test $400 again very soon.  Looking at Bitfinex / Bitstamp.  FYI, to predict the price, just look at the current market leader, and you'll be able to essentially predict the future a few minutes ahead.  Market leaders being the Chinese exchanges of course.  It's like the exchanges follow each other:

Huobi follows BTC38.  Then Bitfinex follows BTC38.  Bitstamp follows Bitfinex.  Just watch BTC38 and trade on Bitstamp, and you'll be 4 steps ahead of the game.

I would rather the price be low than the price be volatile.

This is ridiculous.


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: MTBTT on December 12, 2015, 05:59:14 AM
I love volatility. 

You shouldn't. Embrace stability instead. ;)


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: Was on December 12, 2015, 06:36:57 AM
Can't go down to much past 400. Have you seen the difficulty? Its going crazy and miners cant fine for free. They add hash power with the intention of selling for the price at the time that they added the GH/s. I think what we're seeing is organic upward pressure, increased positive news coverage, and amongst the financial community at that; those guys have money, right?.

Coupled with the fact that its's becoming more and more expensive to mine for a profit, especially since the halving is coming up.

Brace for launch long term (and great volatility 2016).
This is exactly what was said at $800 in 2014.

Well, this isn't exactly 2014. But, It was my understanding at the time that Gox took the price down with it. In the week before Gox went down it had the lowest price out of all the exchanges and that caused fud because it was normally the leading exchange in both price and volume. Feb 8th is when news of bankruptcy was official and the price was downwards decent from there until now


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: TERA on December 12, 2015, 07:04:59 AM
Can't go down to much past 400. Have you seen the difficulty? Its going crazy and miners cant fine for free. They add hash power with the intention of selling for the price at the time that they added the GH/s. I think what we're seeing is organic upward pressure, increased positive news coverage, and amongst the financial community at that; those guys have money, right?.

Coupled with the fact that its's becoming more and more expensive to mine for a profit, especially since the halving is coming up.

Brace for launch long term (and great volatility 2016).
This is exactly what was said at $800 in 2014.

Well, this isn't exactly 2014. But, It was my understanding at the time that Gox took the price down with it. In the week before Gox went down it had the lowest price out of all the exchanges and that caused fud because it was normally the leading exchange in both price and volume. Feb 8th is when news of bankruptcy was official and the price was downwards decent from there until now
What I'm saying is that the same argument about cost of production in mining was being used, when it is in fact irrelevant. The cost of mining in no way will support the price. Where does this price support money come from? Who is on the other end of the trade when someone sells coins, a miner? Miners can also sell at a loss, or they can stop mining until the hashrate drops so that it's profitable to mine again. However, the most impactful thing as that there are 14,000,000 coins other than the new ones being mined. It isn't just miners who sell.


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: 1Referee on December 12, 2015, 08:19:37 AM
The price at Bitstamp reached $467.8 and tanked to $403 after that. That was a massive dump. I hope the people that wanted to dump have done it, and are satisfied, if so, we can rise further the comming days. If they have more coins to dump, then it can be a lot fun  :D


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: MTBTT on December 12, 2015, 08:22:59 AM
The price at Bitstamp reached $467.8 and tanked to $403 after that. That was a massive dump. I hope the people that wanted to dump have done it, and are satisfied, if so, we can rise further the comming days. If they have more coins to dump, then it can be a lot fun  :D

Why do you guys think that a huge price drop of $50 is fun? I just fail to see the logic behind it.

Perhaps you guys are day traders? That would explain it.


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: TERA on December 12, 2015, 08:38:45 AM
A drop of that magnitude was neccessary to reverse the short term trend downward so that the chart has enough time to fill in before the next leg up. Any less of a drop and it wouldn't turn, it would just keep going, which would be bad.


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: Amph on December 12, 2015, 08:38:57 AM
don't fall again for another bear trap like the last one, this is exactly the same thing happened from 380 to 325, still people are so naive to fall for these shit

i would buy from this point as much as possible, there will be another pump to surpass 500 next time


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: 1Referee on December 12, 2015, 08:45:33 AM
The price at Bitstamp reached $467.8 and tanked to $403 after that. That was a massive dump. I hope the people that wanted to dump have done it, and are satisfied, if so, we can rise further the comming days. If they have more coins to dump, then it can be a lot fun  :D

Why do you guys think that a huge price drop of $50 is fun? I just fail to see the logic behind it.

Perhaps you guys are day traders? That would explain it.

I am a day trader, yes. That's why I enjoy seeing these massive dumps happen from time to time. It allows me to make a nice profit. But I also understand that it's not fun for people that have bought at the peak and now see the price is much lower. Just hold, it will go up again for sure.


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: MTBTT on December 12, 2015, 09:40:11 AM
don't fall again for another bear trap like the last one, this is exactly the same thing happened from 380 to 325, stil people are so naive to fall for these shit

i would buy from this point as much as possible, there will be another pump to surpass 500 next time

Cool... I'll buy some as well :)

I'm predicting that it'll go to $500 before January next year.


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: pa on December 12, 2015, 02:28:54 PM
A drop of that magnitude was neccessary to reverse the short term trend downward so that the chart has enough time to fill in before the next leg up. Any less of a drop and it wouldn't turn, it would just keep going, which would be bad.

Why does the chart need to "fill in" and what would have been bad about a monotonic rise with no drops?


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: n691309 on December 12, 2015, 02:30:40 PM
In some exchanges the price went near to $400 but this is not good, it might crash but don't know if someone is pumping the price?


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: ssmc2 on December 12, 2015, 03:07:24 PM
https://thegovernmentrag.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/shakeout.png


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: jt byte on December 12, 2015, 03:18:08 PM
It went up just as fast it went down. I would rather have a stable $400 rather then all these dumping happening. If bitcoin keeps raising in value in a slow pace, i'm okay with that.


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: HarryKPeters on December 12, 2015, 03:45:19 PM
I would like to think that it's a short term adjustment. It's kinda hard to say at this point since the value of bitcoin has only been going down today.
It was really nice to see it at $470 though. I was hoping for it to go back down to $450 and stay there for the rest of the month at least.


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: richardsNY on December 12, 2015, 03:46:50 PM
It's normal that the price went down. You can't expect the price to go only up and up. Traders are in for the money, they will secure their profits as soon as they get the chance. And today they did.


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: pissedoff on December 12, 2015, 03:58:14 PM
It's normal that the price went down. You can't expect the price to go only up and up. Traders are in for the money, they will secure their profits as soon as they get the chance. And today they did.
Traders indeed do profit from big changes in the price but they also profit when the price goes up.


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: MargaretsDream on December 12, 2015, 04:00:32 PM
This is normal price drop as we see with most markets where investors book some profit when price rise up, big rally is yet to come.
Its not the top yet we may close over 550 ending this year


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: pissedoff on December 12, 2015, 04:03:10 PM
This is normal price drop as we see with most markets where investors book some profit when price rise up, big rally is yet to come.
Its not the top yet we may close over 550 ending this year
$550 is too high to expect for the end of this year. My speculation is that we might end this year around $450.


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: n691309 on December 12, 2015, 04:10:14 PM
This is normal price drop as we see with most markets where investors book some profit when price rise up, big rally is yet to come.
Its not the top yet we may close over 550 ending this year
$550 is too high to expect for the end of this year. My speculation is that we might end this year around $450.
It's not high when we see that the price can be pumped $70 within a single day so 2x pumps and $550 can be reached.


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: pissedoff on December 12, 2015, 04:12:06 PM
This is normal price drop as we see with most markets where investors book some profit when price rise up, big rally is yet to come.
Its not the top yet we may close over 550 ending this year
$550 is too high to expect for the end of this year. My speculation is that we might end this year around $450.
It's not high when we see that the price can be pumped $70 within a single day so 2x pumps and $550 can be reached.
The price could be pumped 70 dollars in a day because there wasn't enough support to hold the price.


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: --Encrypted-- on December 12, 2015, 04:23:59 PM
looking back on past couple of years, I'd say it'll probably stay around 390$-440$ until mid january. or a big pump will happen and we'll stay high, or it'll go down slowly, who knows...


Title: Re: $470 -> $420 Starting to crash? Or short term adjustment?
Post by: azguard on December 12, 2015, 05:20:22 PM
This is normal price drop as we see with most markets where investors book some profit when price rise up, big rally is yet to come.
Its not the top yet we may close over 550 ending this year
$550 is too high to expect for the end of this year. My speculation is that we might end this year around $450.
It's not high when we see that the price can be pumped $70 within a single day so 2x pumps and $550 can be reached.

Price can go evem higher but it can maintain the peak
think more this will come in next week it will be good to see it stable on high