Bitcoin Forum

Okay we rolled over to bring this to a really good prize of .416 btc


No new accounts

The contest is free.  You must have Signed up your account Oct 31st 2015 or earlier.

You must have 30 posts or more.


So we are now offering the largest 'free' prize ever 0.416 btc  I am not rolling over the  sidehack-novac compac usb stick

 The picks open at block 600 made :

Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:  

Adjust time:   After 1416 Blocks, About 13.6 days    at 1416 left or 600 made we start



and close at block 1200 made.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:  
Adjust time:   After 816 Blocks, About 13.6 days At 816 left or 1200 made we stop.
  

please make you pick like this

1.0 = philipma1957
1.1 = mavericklm  if positve

or

-1.0 = philipma1957
-0.9 = mavericklm   if negative

that allows easy click and drag.

Funding for this is in place I have .416 btc for funding  and I have more funding for further contests.

I am thinking of  doing a twist here

 " there will be a winner  even if no one gets it I will award it to the close pick.
 last number was 18.14%  which is in the 18.10 to 18.19 slot

So 18.1 was not picked    but 18.0  would have been the close pick"

I do not want to make prize rollover endlessly so I think this is a good twist.

but please let me know if you think another rollover is better.

spacer

Last period was not much fun, hopefully this one goes down even a little.  Really impressive on amount's of rollovers that is getting to be fun.   

Or maybe we can get lucky and value goes up even more I would like to see 500 since all difficulty changes being high recently. But not sure how realistic that is.

How about if there is no winner you roll over half and award half to the close pick?

Rich

I think the rollover adds to excitement.  Part of fun is it getting big and people missing it, just like lotto.  When it get's big people go crazy.

I think more 1/4th or so to closest.  I think it's a good idea on closest but I think keep majority rolling till hit for fun.  But I could be wrong.

yeah I am the first to say a high rollover is exciting but a certain point it is too high
 prize is too big .  This thread has given away more then 3btc in coins and gear. Maybe we allow for one more full rollover if it happens. But ideas are welcome.

We are funded for Dec Jan and Feb . So one more rollover is easy enough to do.  If someone hits it problem solved.

I think we will see some wait a little longer.  A lot of us that put in early guess were not even in ballpark of it.  So I'm guessing some more wait a bit to see where it goes.

So I think we just might do it this time if people wait... but you never know.

I do like the idea of the rollover it does add to the excitement

hopefully  the difficulty will return to  much lower values, then I do believe  the entrants will pick up the gaps in the predicted range

giving a clear winner

the huge diff increases can't last,can they?! ;D

I would like to think so but.... S7 & Avalon6 will keep shipping, SP50 may already be out there but I think the big impact is yet to come. Bitfury are going to come on stream sometime in the next few Months. BW.com also in the next Month or two, KNC, A4 etc. There is just so much happening and so much in the wings at the moment. I think we should expect big Difficulty increases for at least the next 2 to 3 Months


Rich

A 1000 th miner at 500 watts with a diff of 55  and a coin price of 230 made  about  $1.204 in a day. power 7 cents.
A 1000 th miner at 250 watts with a diff of 140 and a coin price of 460 makes about $1.194 in a day. power 7 cents

so a diff of 140 with 2 s-7's

would be like a diff of 55 with 5 s-5's

sadly we are at 93  and 140 is not too far off. but I have to think that it could go to 140 with no issues.  as long as price supports it and a coin price of 460 supports it.

I am late to the mining game but back in 2012-2013-2014 how many ASIC manufacturers were there? There must of been dozens since mining was so profitable.

A lot came out in fall of 2013  when coins  went from 90 to 1100

We made 170 blocks yesterday.
Since  the day was part old diff and part new diff the 170 reads high if you based it on the new diff.

Today will be the first all 93 diff number.

My guess is  we will be under 15.
I think quite a bit of last weeks jump was the bit fury mine going on line.

A lot shared chips at beginning.  Look at A1 chips for example.  It's hard to tell how many used them in their miner.   But it seemed lots more makers of machines then of chips. 

Now it seems company makes chips and miner (for most part).  So it really does limit it quite a bit more now.  I don't see chips being sold like they were during first asics.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

Dec 18 2015   170
Dec 19 2015   150
Dec 20 2015



https://blockchain.info/blocks


389363 (Main Chain)   2015-12-20 12:57:21
389268 (Main Chain)   2015-12-20 00:09:07


96 blocks today  and should be 78 in 13 hours

So this could be a 170 + day

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty -------- (+16.91%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   109,247,635,615 (+16.91%)
Adjust time:   After 1740 Blocks, About 11.6 days
Hashrate(?):   705,106,195 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.8 minutes
6 blocks: 57.5 minutes
Updated:   8:5 (3.1 minutes ago)



Price is still 455 at coinbase.

well looks like they held off till after diff jump to throw it back on.  Net hashrate over last 24 hours is going up  currently  Net Hashrate 873,007.31 TH/s as per bitcoind..  Only way i can think of that they would do this is to not damage sales.. If they just turned this all on when s7 came out then they would have had to dump price much much sooner!!!  Havent seen any crazy swings near 960 th/s again but we are headed that direction today... have to see how high we go before it relaxes again..

Best Regards
d57heinz

edit. and here comes the price dump.. selling my coins NOW lol  

Such a fickle market.. And to think the ones that have the most market share in terms of hash will continue to grow. so the 7 mil or so bitcoins left we can pretty much divvy it up between all the huge miners.. The question that it leaves me is how will this market not be manipulated when only 5 or so people essentially have all the bitcoins???

was able to cash out at 452.. gonna be a ruff ride for a bit i think..

Best regards
d57heinz

Look like another big jump so far  :-\

 the lowest I can find

https://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   389403
Total BTC   14.985M
 
Difficulty   93448670796
Estimated   96038295084 in 1701 blks
 
Network total   803850.738 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.21 / 499 s

The one we use a lot

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  

Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   108,803,158,243 (+16.43%)
Adjust time:   After 1701 Blocks, About 11.4 days
Hashrate(?):   706,585,108 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.7 minutes
Updated:   14:45 (3.4 minutes ago)


so low number is         96.03 diff  a 2.77%
average of the two is 102 diff a 9% jump
higher number is 108.80 diff a 16.43% jump


  I am hoping for the 9% jump  which is still big and close to 90ph

Yes its pretty bad yesterday was like +7 and today will most likely be +10% after the large +18% increase its bad for mining equipment.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

Dec 18 2015   170
Dec 19 2015   150
Dec 20 2015   165
Dec 21 2015


https://blockchain.info/blocks


389456 (Main Chain)   2015-12-21 03:06:21

389433 (Main Chain)   2015-12-21 00:13:17



24 blocks for the beginning of Monday the 21st  and should be 18 in 3 hours

So this could be a 180 + day

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty -------- (+15.89%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   108,295,658,578 (+15.89%)
Adjust time:   After 1648 Blocks, About 11.0 days
Hashrate(?):   730,153,186 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.8 minutes
   





Price is  431 at coinbase.  not much good news so far.

Well, it depends on how much you are OK to roll over .

There are two ways:

1-) Roll over to certain amount like 0.4 or 0.5 then again if no one guesses exactly, then;
a) give all to closest one i.e. give all to 1 person
b) divide all among two closest guessers
c) give some portion of the prize to closest one and continue to rollover(ex: if prize 0.5 then give 0.1 to closest and rollover for next time that next prize will be again 0.5

2-) Give some portion if anyone doesnt guess exactly each time and rollover remaining. Again it depends on how much you want to rollover. Give 50% of the prize each week if you want max prize is 0.2 BTC. If you want max prize is 0.3 BTC then give 1/3 (33%) of the prize to the closest ad so on.

My choice is second one. I think it can be still exciting w/o getting unwanted interference (.i.e. new/suspicious accounts ) while people hope to get some prize ;)

Btw, it seems that diff. still continues to rise with high rate.

Well we have 1.316 in funds.  

https://blockchain.info/address/1ni1F2Bp4PBdpvsagyfoQCJ5AVCg2ty18



  So with this one up to .416   we have 9 more adjustments that we can do.
I think I will:
A) let it roll one more time a max of 0.516 then award it to the closest pick.
B) the remaining  will max at 0.300 then award to the closest pick.
C) When funds run out the thread will just go back to spec only.




The only way contest will go past the  1.316 in funds is if mmpool.org hits a block soon as I have more then 8 coins stuck there.
http://mmpool.org/statistics
I am 1) miner there.  And with holidays and other expenses I am getting tight on coin. Having a 2788 hour time spell between blocks has killed my coin flow.
Would be nice to see some others point some gear at them. Finally letting a block get hit. I could fund this thread longer.


Back to https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty >>>>>> (+15.45%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   107,886,841,288 (+15.45%)
Adjust time:   After 1589 Blocks, About 10.6 days
Hashrate(?):   724,945,604 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.8 minutes
Updated:   7:30 (3.5 minutes ago)

I think we should allow for one roll-over, and if no one wins the second time it resets back to 0.1.  This is just supposed to be "for fun", so no reason for the prize to get crazy high and shorten the length of time we all can play.

On another note, a few months ago I posted that we might see 100G difficulty by the end of the year and most people scoffed at the idea; I wasn't too far off so far, and if things go the way they are going we will be well over 100G by 2016.

Finally a decent day. Only +2.7% looks like its finally stabilizing.

It seems like a point it has to... but I don't know.  I mean there should be only so many slots out there to put miners in, and so many data centers.  But I'm unsure what to expect at this point.

I think it's likely everyone will be pumping out chips for the near future.  And if bitfury stuff is true... they likely will have huge advantage on next gen gear.

 I wonder if we are going to see a big price swing.  230 to 460

so up to 920 would be smoking jump.

could this happen?

numbers are better.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty ---------------- (+13.34%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   105,919,226,878 (+13.34%)
Adjust time:   After 1491 Blocks, About 10.1 days   ----- when this goes to 1416 picks will open
Hashrate(?):   717,388,583 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.3 minutes
6 blocks: 58.6 minutes
Updated:



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   104,899,208,688 (+12.25%)
Adjust time:   After 1418 Blocks, About 9.7 days ------------ We start soon!
Hashrate(?):   727,711,687 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.4 minutes
6 blocks: 58.8 minutes
Updated:   12:0 (5.1 minutes ago)

One more block and we open up for picks!

I say everyone should wait a while and have a better chance at the 0.416 coins.

And off we go.

I for one will wait a bit to pick.

+6.0 = adaseb

First to pick


+6.0 = adaseb

+7.9 = flikflak

No new accounts

The contest is free.  You must have Signed up your account Oct 31st 2015 or earlier.

You must have 30 posts or more.

+7.7

No more double digits... ::)

+3.4 = edonkey

Both cats told me that they have no idea what they are doing at this point. They're just pulling this number out of their collective fuzzy butts.

+10.2 = VirosaGITS

I'm betting another double digit raise and then probably high single digit for a while, maybe until spring.

Pretty much.  The only thing more random that the trying to guess the difficulty is trying to guess the price on a daily basis. 

+12.1 = wpt1wpt1

Why do people pick so early?  Would not waiting be more sound?

Meh,  I saw that the thread was open so I just added my pick then.  If you are early, you have the option to pick when it is relatively open.  If you waited until the end of the picks, all of the numbers may already be claimed.

+12.5 = frank0929

We'll see less than the last one but still more than 12 percent difficulty raise. I don't think any more volatility happen in next 9 days so I picked near the estimated difficulty.

+10.1 = Valkir

 ;D

  Good reason.  Good Luck!

It really is slowing down:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:    104,584,791,627 (+11.92%)
Adjust time:    After 1368 Blocks, About 9.3 days
Hashrate(?):    719,150,921 GH/s

I really hope for under 10 this week.  I'm going to wait on guess.  But I'm hoping we see it go lower.  Price is around 436 hopefully we can get a little more gain there.

Yes it is slowing down finally. Yesterday was only +3.4%

+9.4 = blindminer

+11.1 = 64dimensions

+6.6 = Herbpean

I think the 92G difficulty is scarring everyone and so we're seeing things slow down a bit.  I know it scares me when I look at it in my mining software...

+8.0 = Amph

+11.5 =pusttiu

 Seems like everybody is not expecting the difficulty to go into the +20% this period.

+13 = needmoney

Not to complain  but 18+ percent was just too much.  We need under 10 % .

I think a 10% is more like it.  Bitfury put a 40 mega watt plant on line last jump which was 1/2 of that 18% jump

Yeah   if we do 3  15% jumps  that 93  does this:

106.95 Jan 1

122.99 Jan 15

141.44 Jan 29

to follow up  if we do 10% vs 15%

93

102.3

112.53

123.78    on feb 1 or so this is much lower then 142

I do not believe there is enough hardware still out there to support jumps as high as you are speculating.  My feeling is this is the last big push before the halving, they will ROI this new gear just in time, but we won't see hundreds of PH added in the next jumps.

Remember when diff adjusted down earlier this summer?  Man, those were the days...

+8.2 = kipper01

+15 = cakir

I hope this time I'll win ;D

Better then 20 percent but bitwsidom still not a 5 percent week:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:    105,249,700,370 (+12.63%)
Adjust time:    After 1244 Blocks, About 8.2 days
Hashrate(?):    710,030,778 GH/s

Price around 440 so not to bad there.

+8.1 = Biodom

Thanks. More like a wish than anything.

+12.3 = keystroke

Thanks =)

We could use a -1%  adjustment not this one but the Jan 13-15 one.

I have to root against a 15% jump ;D

My wish is under 10% maybe even 7%

+11.6 = ingiltere

I hope this time I'll be luckier. Close choice for previous picks.

Hoping for something under 10% for sure. I'm gonna wait for another day or so to make my pick since I feel like the +12.31% showing is a little on the high side.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   104,948,827,134 (+12.31%)
Adjust time:   After 1228 Blocks, About 8.1 days
Hashrate(?):   699,166,428 GH/s

+10.0 = zebedee

+12.7 = ailikun

lets hope for the best ;D.

+9.3 = ezeminer

Phil  are you going to wait until 1175th block?

I will pick on Christmas morning.

Sounds good to me.

+9.9 = mavericklm

thank you! ;D

Still rising a little higher then I hoped for. The stats for yesterday finished at +7.7%

LOL. Love your nickname by the way

Imagine how deep the quoting will be by then!

Forgot to say, it is ages since I have entered, so my guess is:

+7.4 = tertius993

+14 = crazy987

You are the first to notice Phil is doing a quote for each entry.

I'll have a go if that's Ok?

+13.5 = icey

+13.3 = page14

ok its time before i lose my slot.. im gonna sneak in at

+12.2 = d57heinz

Merry Christmas to all from the Midwest!


Edit>>>> and one more thing,,. lets keep this contest as honest as possible. Please make only one guess with what should be your one and only account here.> There's only a few reasons i can think of to have extra accounts. Please lets keep this fun

Best Regards
Doug

Yeah I am hoping to see a good contest and no double entries.

Yes me aswell.  guess we will see tomorrow ;)


Best Regards
d57heinz

+9.6%  = indiemax

Merry Christmas to all from rainy UK  ;D

+9.2 = vortexz

+10.7 = Mikestang

I wonder how long we will go with the new .1 guess system before someone wins?

Phil, did you come up with a roll-over scenario?  I think we need to cap the prize at some point (my suggestion was 1 roll over, 0.2btc max reward, then reset it) or the prize becomes too much for a "fun" game and starts attracting less savory types...

Yes a nice Christmas  would be welcome in my house.

 

I think Phil is going to let this one roll one more time to a max of .516

After that max will be .3

Is everything ok Philip. Beginning to wonder if ya had to much nog. Can you please explain to the community why your on here with a secondary account going back and forth with yourself.  I bit my tongue long enough.  It makes me cringe every time judypug posts.  Please don't take my word for it go look thru Judy posts and be judge yourself what's going on here.   I tried to be sly about communicating what I knew to Philip but it's apparent he didn't pick up on it


Best regards
Doug

Could be a fanboy, or something like that. I feel like it would be a stretch because Phil has been good for the community, and actually has done things of goodwill, like split a block with some guy that mined to an address that didn't work with solo mining.


Also wanted to update here:

Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   103,997,411,108 (+11.29%)
Adjust time:   After 1093 Blocks, About 7.2 days
Hashrate(?):   682,265,602 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.5 minutes
3 blocks: 28.4 minutes
6 blocks: 56.8 minutes

Potential for going under 11%? That'd be pretty cool.

There is a very specific set of reasons as to why I am posting with this account.

 While I rather not discuss  all the reasons.
The reason I will discuss is I have been asked to not double post with my main account.  I wanted to try a different way of listing all the names in the contest with a new quote for every entry. So if 3 people posted entries I would not want to  triple post quotes.

Many people don't realize most of the funding for this was from a different member.
i.e. not Judypug1956 or philipma1957
He has funded us 1.316 more coins that I control. I will finish this post with my legendary account.

Note I have 1.316 coins in funds to distribute for the contest.

This prize is up to .416 and will top at .516   I will give it to the closet pick if we go past .516

Back to double posts. I eran some coin for my signature and it is flat rate monthly.  So I used to occasionally double post if I thought it may the thread make more sense.

I was asked to not double post since some felt even though I got no extra money by double posting I was spamming my signature.

So I use the judypug1956 account here and there rather then double post.

This brings us up to the second issue can a member cheat here yes he or she can.

While My alternate accounts do exist i have always mentioned multiple times that they belong to me.

Herein lies the problem of this  contest last month we had three new day old 2 post accounts try to join.

Most people did not ask me when I mentioned funding why is (?) not doing the funding anymore.

He told me he no longer wants to do it and rather not be mentioned on the theads anymore. So I did not mention him I called him (?)

I also did not ask him why he wants to stop since he gave more then 2.7 btc away and he sent 1.316 to my account to fund into the future.

I had some other reasons for using the alternative account ,but for now I will keep them out of the discussion.

I will also change  the quotes for the rest of the contest.

I also altered my signature on judypug1956


Also the funding for the contest is here:

https://blockchain.info/address/1ni1F2Bp4PBdpvsagyfoQCJ5AVCg2ty18

and as i said was provided for by our prior funder (?)

I have the keys to the address. I am looking to fund this beyond the 1.316 in the account

On this topic I don't think there is anything we truly can do if someone want's to cheat.  As long as people can have more then 1 account legally... you really cannot know 100 percent some are not alt's.  

I think getting rid of members newer then a certain date, and newbie account's was a good idea.  Last week I think we went from 0 new members as they don't tend to go to speculation, to 3 new account's.  So someone is actively trying to game the system.

Sadly when  payment get's so many rolling over it brings a greedy side to some.... I don't think we can stop it.  Just have to be aware of it.

Well with only 1.316 in funds and .416 for this contest.  we have 9 more jumps and funds will be done.

It was a lot of fun to do.

Christmas Eve Dec 24th mining day is over.

Today we have finished at

-5.1%

First negative day in a while.

On this note the worst  2 days so far  dec 20 at 164 and  dec 23 at  157
Last adjustment we had ---------   on Dec 10  212  and on Dec 15th 197

that is quite a difference.

We have 1073 blocks left and I would think we reach 816 blocks left in just under 45 hours.

picks will end on block 816

I hope to see 8% or less.

+12.0 Swordsoffreedom
That is one ridiculous quote wall you have going there Phillip
Anyways Merry Christmas to all and the mining units keep hashing  ;D

Yes it is one of the biggest quote walls ever done looks good.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Estimated Next Difficulty:    103,410,459,774 (+10.66%)
Adjust time:    After 1076 Blocks, About 7.1 days
Hashrate(?):    678,772,040 GH/s

all 3 colours are going down, so what adaseb said is true!


i love it!

Merry Christmassssssssssssssssssssssss!!!!!!!!!!

The current block graph looks okay

This was the worst one and it was the first day

https://i.imgur.com/tcPe7uF.png

This one is the newest and it was today

https://i.imgur.com/lWQXu4l.png

+12.4 = vapourminer

Conservative: 5%
normal 5.2%
Continous: 5.7 %

by: http://nextdifficulty.com/ and looks about right! looks like stabilizing a bit just under 700ph

so what's up with that! the christmas hollydays?! 

+6.3 = wlefever for me please!

And Merry Christmas to everyone!  Cheers to hopefully single digits as well!

+8.9 = Lituation

Difficulty raise is stopped. I made more conservative prediction.

+6.5 = Last of the V8s

not quite as scary this period. Happy Christmas all

+5.6 = Tmdz

Come on guys lets get some 5 action on this guessing game  :P

Well time for bed in the UK. I am going to give it to the Morning, as this one is definitely a waiting game. Big question is will it continue at this level, continue to drop off over the Xmas period or begin to pick up again just before New Year?  :)

Happy Christmas Everyone.


Rich

+11.3 = Tupsu

7.0 = tss

you missed me :-)  thanks

+5.7  kilo17

Looks like the price came down from 455 to 439,
Maybe we won't see double digit difficulty increase.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   103,545,790,455 (+10.80%)
Adjust time:   After 876 Blocks, About 5.7 days
Hashrate(?):   711,539,292 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.3 minutes
3 blocks: 27.9 minutes
6 blocks: 55.9 minutes

Yeah the price went down and the difficulty went a little higher today.

Dec 25th ended at +10.6% for the day.

Price is not fun to lose around 15 dollars or so today so far.  Hopefully we see it bounce up a little it seems at 440 it's kinda slowing down on the downswing, but that could be temporary.

I'm just not happy to see a near 20 change again this week. Bitwisdom right now:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:    103,833,243,660 (+11.11%)
Adjust time:    After 870 Blocks, About 5.6 days
Hashrate(?):    716,281,040 GH/s

+9.0 = skuser

This one is a tough one, Xmas having some weird effects.... Quite surprising with a knowledgeable group of people we have a range from +3.4 to +15.0 in the picks...

+9.5 = RichBC

+10.3 = philipma1957


about 40 blocks left

+11.2 = alh

+10.5 = lanfeusst

+9.5 = RichBC
+10.3 = philipma1957
+11.2 = alh
+10.5 = lanfeusst

the four right above are all in I will put them in the wall of quotes one at a time, without using  the judypug1956 account  to prevent double posts, thus it will take a little bit to do it as I need wait for posts to the thread to work them in.

oh today is a strong day about 108 blocks and we should be 87

Thanks for clearing that up.. I hate to be the asshole but with what happen last round and now this.. it was a bit suspicious to me. i have a great bullshit detector.> Could have saved me being the ass had you explained what you were doing.. the fact that you were having conversation with yourself is what alarmed me just so you know.. I appreciate you coming out with an explanation.  Thanks for that!  What You have to understand is that ive been scammed in Btc/ltc schemes far too many times and when i see something off i say something. This is the second time ive been a bit of a thorn to this whole thing.. first time was when i came in and predicted a huge increase in diff.. I promise im not here to throw the wrench in things. hell when you run out of funds or get close i am planning on donating to further this along.   what i worry about and know nothing about is if we allow the community to donate say .005 or less idk depends on the participants from previous round. that would allow us to keep it rolling and keep it fun. Im not trying to turn this into some kind of forex or derivatives.. Also things i dont know much about lol.. But anyway. Sorry i was so blunt the other day Phil. I do appreciate like many other all the things you do for the community.. everyone makes mistakes now and again. hell i do more than not some days ..   Your an asset to the community and i appreciate the time you take to thouroghly explain whatever it is your working on.  

Now OT.

I didnt get to monitor it too close due to holidays but according to this graph  it dropped a bunch for a short period of time.. http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png

Current nethashrate is 837,078.33 TH/s   this is the blocks created over last 24 hours from this posting

What is interesting is we had btcchina fall off the map for some odd reason.. then we have a press release that they donated 100 nodes.. wonder if they donated the whole farm ;D. i seen some article today pointing towards some kind of bit license in china starting jan 1 2016  most likely fud like btc being dead all the time lol

http://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/30d?c=m&t=a


Best Regards
Doug
d57heinz

+10.3 = philipma1957
+11.2 = alh
+10.5 = lanfeusst

the four right above are all in. I Just put in  RichBC

I will put them in the wall of quotes one at a time, without using  the judypug1956 account  to prevent double posts, thus it will take a little bit to do it as I need wait for posts to the thread to work them in.

oh today is a strong day about 108 blocks and we should be 87

@ d57heinz   Thanks for the post  and the  'pollogy'

Back to the  On-topic part of your post.   

 We had the drop off down to 137 then back to 164 = mine turned off then on.    My Guess. As to why I do not know.

What some people do not realize that  the 164 yesterday is a 194 if it was last difficulty.

^^ We gona help you with that. ;) It looks to me, like we will see another 2 digit jump @ ~12%. Blockchain.info is reporting a network hash rate of 855 PH/s.

+11.2 = alh
+10.5 = lanfeusst

the four right above are all in. I Just put in  RichBC, and now philipma1957

I will put them in the wall of quotes one at a time, without using  the judypug1956 account  to prevent double posts, thus it will take a little bit to do it as I need wait for posts to the thread to work them in..



oh today is a strong day about 135 blocks and we should be 110 this is a 160 block pace


What some people do not realize that  the 164 yesterday is a 194 if it was last difficulty.
and the possible 160 today would have been 190 last diff adjustment.

Almost looks a little like art or a boarder with so many quotes, think that is the most I have seen like that.  Looks nice I think.

And I am an example of someone who thought they would be smart and wait close to end.... and forgot :).  So I wont be wrong this week... but wont be right.  Price is 416.... with this difficulty ouch is all I have to say.

+10.5 = lanfeusst
the four right above are all in. I Just put in  RichBC,  philipma1957, and now alh

I will put them in the wall of quotes one at a time, without using  the judypug1956 account  to prevent double posts, thus it will take a little bit to do it as I need wait for posts to the thread to work them in..



oh today is a strong day about 156 blocks and we should be 126 this is now a 170 block pace


What some people do not realize that  the 164 yesterday is a 194 if it was last difficulty.
and the possible 160 today would have been 190 last diff adjustment.


@ notlist3d     I think it is going up up and away.  I waited until 40 blocks left and still think I did not pick close with my pick.




One last guy to put in to the wall of quotes.  it will be one quote for every person but the first picker.  It looks very thin on my ipad mini.

Two wall quotes practically take up the entire page! LOL

I really thought we would see this period dip into the single digits, and still feel like it will towards the end.  With todays price dip I'm looking for the network hashrate to finish out around 711 Ph/s! We shall see...

the four right above are all in. I Just put in  RichBC,  philipma1957,   alh and now     lanfeusst  

I will put them in the wall of quotes one at a time, without using  the judypug1956 account  to prevent double posts, thus it will take a little bit to do it as I need wait for posts to the thread to work them in..



oh today is a strong day about 156 blocks and we should be 126 this is now a 170 block pace


What some people do not realize that  the 164 yesterday is a 194 if it was last difficulty.
and the possible 160 today would have been 190 last diff adjustment.


@ notlist3d     I think it is going up up and away.  I waited until 40 blocks left and still think I did not pick close with my pick.




One last guy to put in to the wall of quotes.  it will be one quote for every person but the first picker.  It looks very thin on my ipad mini.

The quote wall is done!

If you have a widescreen and shrink the page then expand the page the wall moves quite weird .

Well it is a bit of fun for now.

I'm hoping so traditionally we say this before Christmas I think it seemed some cashed out for holiday spending.  I thought we were lucky and did not get it but appears we might have got it just after Christmas.  It was a ugly day: http://www.coindesk.com/price/

Hopefully your right and we will see some upward swing soon.  I guess good news is we did not swing under 400... so not near as bad as a day could be.

Well bills come due.  My discover card bill posted today  always posts the day after christmas. 

Only $1055  which is 2.4 coins

Yes yesterday was pretty bad. Ended the day with 170 blocks which ended at +15.3%

Most of China does not celebrate christmas, right?  So that holiday wouldn't be expected to have any effect on the big mining farms I guess.  Still another impressive jump, because 10% network growth again is a lot of machines coming on line at this point.

In the last few hours there was a 40ph jump sitting at 764 right now.  Combined with the price dip this will hurt as munch as last round.  I'm really worried this won't let up being there are so many s7 being shipped out and miners are receiving them.  One can only hope this pressure let's up soon.

Networkspeed @ 0.92 exa hashes/s... I think we will break the 1000 PH/s in January 2016

https://i.imgur.com/rgFM6s1.png

I never saw that bump coming before the new year.  That was a realy bad blow to reach over 950 Ph!

The price drop was related to some China rumor of Bitlicense like regulation like in the past.  We will see what develops around that and if the price support picks back up with this hashrate increase.

https://blockchain.info/blocks


390480 (Main Chain)   2015-12-27 13:51:35
390360 (Main Chain)   2015-12-27 00:09:29


121 blocks in 14 hours we should be 84    that is +44%   it is a 207 block pace for the day.   Of course I am projecting 14 hours into 24 but still 207 pace!

 Is done forever.

Today is a horrible day. Caused a huge spike. Will probably end up being +20% for the day.

At least price went up a little it's around 426... so not the 450+ but still going up so it's not all horrible.  Bitwisdom still does not look horrible but it could be wrong if some spikes happen:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:    104,628,550,777 (+11.96%)
Adjust time:    After 551 Blocks, About 3.4 days
Hashrate(?):    849,586,844 GH/s

Today ended up being +30%. There is a huge spike on the Bitcoinwisdom charts. Most likely it will be around +10% for the diff increase.

Had quite the boost in speed the last two days.. its bitfury f2pool and bitmain leading the charge. http://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/7d?c=m&t=a  We did for the first time hit 1 exahash over 24 hour period.. Looks like we might well exede that by end of january.. They trying to squeeze out all that old tech.. Hell at this rate its gonna squeeze out the new aswell :-\

Got a good glimpse of us hitting 1 exa over 24 hour here.. http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png  And for whoever runs that graph.. thanks for updating it so we can see past 800 peta:)

edit also one thing to note kncminer also doubled there hash. could be variance  but its a nice bump..we will see over time

Best Regards
d57heinz

yeah diff looks like up up and away.  last three days are nuts

516  blocks to go.

Today was a 205 block day

 So

205  = 61 blocks over
171  = 27 blocks over
163  = 19 blocks over      so in 3 days we were 107 blocks over

539 vs 432  this is a +24.76%  growth rate  thank goodness it is just the last three days

look at this chart
https://i.imgur.com/F4BDZrG.png

Price Down from that 450, Hash up to 0.85 EH, Difficulty almost to 105B
Price now at 428


Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   105,031,825,635 (+12.40%)
Adjust time:   After 487 Blocks, About 3.0 days
Hashrate(?):   856,769,229 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.8 minutes
3 blocks: 26.2 minutes
6 blocks: 52.5 minutes


Boy this could get scarier.

better today


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   104,883,429,302 (+12.24%)
Adjust time:   After 443 Blocks, About 2.7 days
Hashrate(?):   853,108,949 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.7 minutes
3 blocks: 26.1 minutes
6 blocks: 52.2 minutes
Updated:   10:20 (3.3 minutes ago)



https://blockchain.info/blocks

390662 (Main Chain)   2015-12-28 15:20:31

390565 (Main Chain)   2015-12-28 00:04:49


98 blocks in the time it takes to do  92 blocks or a 154 block pace for today.

there is no doubt in my mind that power on and power off at a massive scale is happening.

Seems to me to be a lot more "power on" than off.  A 10%+ adjustment at this point is almost insane - the increase is the value of the entire network like 18 months ago.  I can't believe there is still so much gear out there coming online...

yes no question we are growing like mad.


 but 157  138  163  171  202      146         the bold numbers are gear turning off. 

   that 202 is very likely the real top end of all gear at the moment     and todays 146 or so is off or downclock for the whole network.

the scary part to me is the 202 blocks the other day would have been 240 blocks last adjustment.

I also think the 202 is what the network really is at this moment. 

the most frightening thing is I belief the asic builders are just going to build and sell until we crash.  Which will happen some time in 2016.

Surely some of the variance is just "Luck", a Day is a short period of time. Yes there is growth but some of the apparent swings are just High & Low days that need to be averaged?

Rich

sure 163 to 171 I can believe that is variance.  Not 171 to 202 to 147  too much swing to fast for the entire network.

The bad thing is it makes the 202 more believable  as top size of network.  which means the network pedal to the floor is more then 1000ph

I agree it's a very large swing, and unfortunately statistics & probability not at all my thing, but suspect it is still possible that it is just variance? However if not what is the "theory" as to why all this additional capacity would be turned on for sufficiently long to affect a single Day & then be switched off again?

Rich

Kano explained it in this thread here .. I made mention to my wallet giving me a warning that we had double the expected amount of blocks in a 4 hr period.. here is the start of the post..
Kano gives the statistics of this being variance.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=789369.msg13379545#msg13379545

Best Regards
d57heinz

Very interesting, and says that this is a real increase, still leaves unanswered why it is switched on & then off again?

A question for those that know? How is the network Hash Rate & Individual Pool shares measured? Is it all worked out from the speed that blocks are solved & who solved them or is there other information involved?


Rich

my two guesses involve China and/ or bitfury.

Bitfury developed more hash power and has stated they opened a 40 megawatt plant 40 megawatt with immersion cooling in Georgia .

 I estimate they could have 175 to 225 ph  and when you do big 40 block drops and jumps you need to turn on and off about 200 ph.
Somewhere I did a post on temps in Georgia Russia and they have been pretty warm.  So maybe the immersion cooling would prefer below 0c  and it has been above 0c  .

Second choice is a Chinese ghost city that has 20 or 30 ph in old gear and is turned on and off when allowed to by corrupt officials.

Could be both.  but when you see these 40 block swings five to six times the last  5 weeks it is a power off power on deal.

The worst part is  the big number is most likely how much hash there really is.

I have not developed working theory of why you would do it if you have the ability to stay high power all the time. So I think it may be a cooling issue it it is all bit fury and a power availability issue if it is all China.

I do think it is both not just one as I do not think China has a full 200ph in ghost cities.

Network hash rate is estimated based on the time it takes to solve blocks at the current difficulty, there is no absolute measure of total network hash rate and when you think about it how could there be?

Pool shares are measure by the respective pools and reported accordingly.

we are at  (+11.54%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   104,230,458,912 (+11.54%)
Adjust time:   After 366 Blocks, About 2.2 days                   366 blocks left  so maybe Weds we will know is there  a winner or a rollover
Hashrate(?):   818,039,989 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.8 minutes
3 blocks: 26.2 minutes
6 blocks: 52.5 minutes
Updated:   22:10 (3.7 minutes ago)

And today again was a slightly slower day as we finished at 150 blocks which is only 6 over which is +4%.

So no idea why this type of gear is switched on and switched off.

let me see if I can find the temps in Russia  as I suspect it is bitfury and the new plant has a cooling issue


here is what I posted on last spec thread.



I would  wonder  if they are having an over heating issue.  Someone needs to see how cold it is at the new  mine  in

 Tbilisi, Georgia


http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/UGTB/2015/12/17/MonthlyCalendar.html?req_city=Tbilisi&req_statename=Georgia&reqdb.zip=00000&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=37545#calendar


dec 1   41-48    170
dec 2   37-51    158
dec 3   39-44    141
dec 4   35-42    154
dec 5   33-46    173
dec 6   28-48    157
dec 7   37-46    149
dec 8   41-51    171
dec 9   39-50    174
dec 10 37-41    212   cold day best test?
dec 11 30-42    157
dec 12 26-44    169
dec 13 28-50    137    hotter day backed off?
dec 14 26-42    197   cold day good test?
dec 15 30-50    185    does not quite match
dec 16 33-46


I can't quite correlate  temps with blocks worth a shot to keep looking at it.


and here is a set of newer numbers
dec 18  26-42f 170
dec 19  24-46f  150
dec 20  23-50f   164
dec 21  39-50f   152
dec 22  44-57f   150
dec 23  42-51f   157
dec 24  42-50f   138
dec 25  44-50f   163
dec 26  35-51f   171
dec 27  44-51f   202
dec 28  44-50f   152




the best I have is  they suffer heat creep  when outside temp approaches 50f

so they turn gear down a bit. let the oil immersion tanks cool


An easy way to find this to be true is the temps go to 5f- 20f  and the bounce up and down stops.

All speculation of course.  But somebody is cranking gear up and down.

now the number temp for the:


 29th is 36-54
30th is  35-51
31st is  33-39  so a big spike?
1st is   31-37  big again
2nd is 17-33   big again
3rd is  11-27   big again


http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/zmw:00000.1.37545

this set of temps coming should kill my theory or help it seem more plausible.

Bitwisdom Morning:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:    103,824,023,966 (+11.10%)
Adjust time:    After 282 Blocks, About 1.7 days
Hashrate(?):    790,666,580 GH/s

Good news for now is price is seeming to be on it's way upwards again.  It's around 429 so not bad another 20 dollars and I will be happy in short term.   And hopefully in coming weeks we can go above that.

yeah and at   +11.10%    I stand a small chance of winning it.

The main contenders are below:

+9.9   = mavericklm
+10.0 = zebedee
+10.1 = Valkir
+10.2 = VirosaGITS
+10.3 = philipma1957
+10.5 = lanfeusst
+10.7 = Mikestang
+11.1 = 64dimensions >>>>>>>>>>>  would get prize if contest stopped now!
+11.2 = alh
+11.3 = Tupsu
+11.5 = pusttiu
+11.6 = ingiltere
+12.0 = Swordsoffreedom
+12.1 = wpt1wpt1
+12.2 = d57heinz
+12.3 = keystroke
+12.4 = vapourminer
+12.5 = frank0929

It will definately be around +10% or so. Most likely it will be those gaps that nobody chose and we move over on to next week.

there are 27 possible slots  from 9.9 to 12.5  we have 18 of them covered.  so ⅓ chance of a rollover to .516 btc


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (+11.32%)
Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   104,026,281,982 (+11.32%)
Adjust time:   After 241 Blocks, About 1.5 days
Hashrate(?):   796,535,338 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.8 minutes
3 blocks: 26.4 minutes
6 blocks: 52.9 minutes
Updated:   17:35 (5.2 minutes ago)

oh as an aside it was not cold near the bitfury plant in Russia and blocks today are at a 158 pace.
it is supposed to be warm in Russia tomorrow so I wonder if we stay close to 160 again.