Bitcoin Forum

Difficulty reached a new high with biggest ever increase. Bitcoin price can only go in one direction in the medium term.

https://blockchain.info/charts/difficulty?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

Or some miners leave because they can't profit, difficulty goes down, and price goes down... you know, the other highly possible scenario

price usually do not follow the diff, is the other way around, so the price will remain there it is just the diff that it will adjust in a way that it will profitable again and always for those that can remain in play

also if everyone of them has the same electricity i'm guessing who among them will leave? none, simply no more miners will join, no one will leave anything

Difficulty looks like a rocket to the moon and you claim that a complete mining meltdown is a "highly possible scenario". You serious?


price != value

it's the same actually, value as i see it is the future price that may happen, so talking about today you can refer it as price, if you speak for the future value is more appropriate

oh fuck more good news, it indicates were going to dump soon

nowadays i find more and more new things why the price of the bitcoin should grow even more than it is now though the price is pretty much stable and can drop at any time i wouldnt be so confident about it though i hope the price will increase because of that i will buy some coins for the money i have left over

So many bullish indicators...
Mining power at record levels, blocks filling up due to more transactions, supply halving approaching.
Only a catastrophic event like some crypto primitive being seriously compromised or several G7 countries outlawing Bitcoin can stop it from reaching new highs in 2016.

One can only fill sorrow for all the bears out there... they are going to miss out a great money making opportunity.

Disclaimer: I'm long BTC and looking to pile-up even more.

Interesting read by the way -> https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-headlines-reuters-publishes-a-bitcoin-price-article-predicting-record-highs-in-2016/

This difficulty may go down if the price doesn't move above the current mark after halving as lots of miners will left mining. I wonder what they will do with all of those mining rigs.  ;D ???

Don't you think that companies that are investing millions of $ in mining equipment have factored in the halving into their plans particularly given that the halving schedule is public information?

It's great that the difficulty is going up to the highest levels ever, but don't forget that we have been sitting at around $220-$250 for a very long time. And at that time the difficulty was also increasing, not as much as now, but it was increasing. This price gives miners more reason to turn on their hardware, and that could be the reason for this difficulty jump.

They also anticipate on the price that will go up because the demand will increase due to people that are willing to buy coins before the block halving. I am fairly sure if the price stays around $500 without moving much, the difficulty will still jump with at least 5-10% per difficulty adjustment. These prices are great for miners. If the price goes up even more, then it's even better for them. 

You're argument is flawed. You're missing the point that this is the highest level ever difficulty has reached and the biggest ever increase in difficulty. These are not miners "turning on" their mining equipment as you claim. This is brand new capacity joining the network at massive rates. If you mind checking the media you'll see that several miners have made announcements of significant capacity and efficiency increases in the recent past.

You also miss the point that price and difficulty will never be correlated in the short term. If they would even an idiot would make money trading and that is not the case. Speculation is based on appreciating the differences in price and value of an asset and trading accordingly. Hash power / difficulty is one of most, if not the most, important determinants of the value of bitcoins.

If the price does not rise after the halving, the difficult will go down. This happened to shark coin. It will also happen to bitcoin.

I'm guessing you are bullish for 2016?

I didnt really follow the asic manufacturers but arent the next gen asics out?

Yes. Very much. If there are no negative events in Bitcoin security and regulatory landscape I'm looking for Bitcoin to make new highs in 2016 (relative to 2015) in a conservative scenario. In an optimistic scenario I think it can touch $1000 or come very close to this figure. In any case I do expect the bullish trend to continue fueled by:
1. Increased adoption as revealed by more transactions in the network.
2. Increased hashing power and hence increased security and therefore higher value of the network.
3. Reduction of supply of new asset supply due to halving by mid 2016.

Of course in the short term anything can happen as any trader with a significant position can push the price up or down. My expectation are on the mid term trend.


I don't know exactly but looking at the last massive difficulty increases looks like this could be the case.

I can't really see any correlation of difficulty and price. It's related to spiraling hardware specs which cares not for what traders are doing. The traders who dictate the price probably don't care as long it all still creaks along.

There are lots of positive indicators such as increased transaction volume, search statistics etc, and you pick something that has never led the price? Notice the difficulty has roughly doubled since June, when the price was oddly enough roughly half what it's been lately. All you are seeing is the miners rushing to catch up the doubling of price that ALREADY HAPPENED!

There are much better indicators than difficulty increase caused by one new mining farm.

And they all point down...

Why don't you tell us which indicators you are talking about?

Well if you think about it for a while it is quite intuitive. There are 3 reasons why you would not observe a clear correlation even though the basic idea is that for any given asset price will converge to intrinsic value over time.

1.  Some assets like bonds fore example are very easy to value because they have more or less predictable cash flows in the future as well as companies like S&P rating the solvency of the issuer. For bonds price and value will tend to deviate little. Bitcoin on the other hand is a different asset more akin to gold with no cash flows one can use for valuation. For these type of assets value a price can deviate significantly over a prolonged period of time. Also value becomes much more subjective and difficult to define.

2. In any case any asset must have value otherwise nobody would waste their time with it so you must think what are the value drivers of an asset like Bitcoin? As a bitcoin trader I have considered this question for long and came up with several ideas one which is the degree of security of the network or how resistant it is to attacks. Of course this is not the only value driver but it is a major one in my view. All other things being equal a cryptocurrency with more mining power backing it will be more valuable than one with less mining power simply because it is more secure.

3. The reason why you'd not observe such a correlation in the short term is because if you would you'd be making money very easily. Buy bitcoins, then buy mining equipment and start mining, price increases, sell come of the bitcoins, buy more mining equipment, make more money, repeat.

Down to where? :) Also, which better indicators are you referring to, then? I wanna know because I always see you around threads and saying that it will always go down without some evidence. ::)

Kwuk keeps his Noggin in his Rectum, which explains both his short-sighted inverted view of the situation and his unwillingness to elaborate on, or describe the things he sees.  :)

Just do the opposite of what he says, and you'll be fine.  Usually, the louder he kwacks, the better bitcoins prospects look..

One day he might figure out to try some reverse psychology and try pretending to be a bull, but until then, hes more of a http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=bullshit+artist

The scene is set for another record breaking increase in difficulty in a couple of days.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1305575.0
https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate

And here we go again -> https://blockchain.info/charts/difficulty?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

Wow. That is an epic chart. A nice reminder for the little people to think twice about getting into mining.

It's about time we went back to that $1000 people were missing for over 2 years.

Yes, it is time to go again to hit the most awaited price level of $1000. I too believe that the difficulty raise is the first step towards a price increase. Price will follow difficulties levels. There would be many surprises we are going to experience in 2016.

We dont know the price fluctuate but according to the chart there's a possibility that it will hit again in $1000.
I dont experience it before but now i think it will happen. But im not ready to experience it yet and im still collecting more bitcoins
and finding another source of bitcoins Before the price start to raise..

we have big gap in here and the gap around $500++. first we need break up $700 before we hope price back to $1000.

I dont know why $500 seems to be such a hard number to get to, it looks like we are slowly climbing though. Would be a good start to 2016 if we broke $500 in january which isnt impossible.

I agree with your opinion that in order to come close to $1k price we would need to have some positive developments in terms of adoption APART from just the halving event. Halving event is overhyped in this forum, but based on that alone we won't go far, if the positive developments do not follow.

There is just too much resistance which makes it hard to get there or to even stay there.
But the whales didn't give up yet In fact it could go there quite easily.

Bulls will aways be bulls... so their bullish ways is no surprise coming into 2016.
I just want to see the price rise a bit more so we can see movement quick so we can move this coin to it's potential value for the prosperous value that it deserves.

of course $500 isn't impossible to reach. you only must not forget that there are large traders that bought their coins well below sub $300. as soon as you see the price come closer to the $500 price level, you see it goes down again. too many people are waiting to sell at this point. as soon as they have taken all their profits, then the price will go through the $500 barrier.

If they spent so much in a Bitcoin mining farm, then they must have a good reason to believe the price will increase, and I think they have more information than we.

So I think it is bullish, but not because of the rise itself

It is not impossible but it will take years to get there unless some big event happens to have this happening.
Then it will rise and continue to rise to the moon some say. But this is my pure speculation of course.

The way up for bitcoin will not be easy even though that's the clear trend in the medium and long term.
The main factor pushing prices down are miners having to convert part of their newly minted coins to fiat to pay for business expenses like for example electricity. Even if they can pay for new equipment with BTC these coins will still need to go to fiat for similar reason at some point.

it may be also purely speculation story. The investment may already bring the return with the rise to $500-600, taking into account the scale. No need to attack higher if you may cash the profits there, then drive down the price to $350-400 and repeat the procedure.

I think the days of insane price rises are over, seems bitcoin is taking much slower movements now, I know it can still be quite volatile but nothing compared to what its been like in the past. thats how it should be .

years just for 1k? no way, 1k is nothing, it can be achieved this year, with the halving easily

they said that 500 would take years to reach when we were at 230, see now we touched it plenty of times this year alone, same thing will happen for 1k

It depends on how adoption improves in 2016. I doubt that with the adoption as it is now and only due to halving we would go to $1k.
This is not gonna happen unless really big news hits the market. I am not saying it is impossible, but let's see how this year unfolds.

I fully agree. One thing we need to consider though is the greed and publicity, a dynamic that will kick in short before the reward halving. We will see many more news reports and we should not underestimate the greed of people who never took BTC seriously before but start to believe in its potential to make quick cash due to the promise of halving. You and me know the halving will not change how many bitcoins will be available over night. Unless demand goes up there will still be 15 million coins out there to trade. It will take many months or even years before the halving will have any effect on the (slightly reduced but still larger) supply. It's all psychological. If many more people realize this, there will be no ATH anytime soon.

but you see 2015 in the end brought to us a nice 100%, increase why 2016 should not do the same when there are better proposals, a better sentiment overall(out of the bear market) and the halving is coming

if anything it should be more easy in 2016 to do another 100% than it was in 2015, with the bad sentiment

i'm not saying that this will happen in january, but we have 12 months for that it will certainly happen before december

2015 was in the end a very positive year reversing the 18 month long bear trend. That was great feat, no doubt about it.
The bear was long and moved the market into a very low levels, from which we rebounded. That was achieving a good increase in the yearly view was relatively easy.
Now however, I expect the things to be a bit more difficult. If we are to achieve a similar growth next year, we need to get some further reasons to sustain it.
I doubt the change in the sentiment (motivated mostly by the approaching halving event) would be enough for that.

The most devastating factor for the mining and the miners. Halving is nothing compared to the difficulty. Something that cannot be predicted never make every kind of investment made in  this field or work seems like gambling. Or better, every kind of use of money in this field or work is for sure gambling. Who don't want to understand this mean that don't want or don't know to reasoning. Fortunately that are people who like gambling (first time that I not only don't attack the gambling but want and incite the contrary), who have not to many knowledge about it or are effected by the beauty of mining, otherwise who will mine would be only the owners of the pools.

I had the similar feeling. But Mike Hearn's comment drove the price down 20%. The bitcoin market is not mature. We also need to iimprove bitcoin further.

it's not mike hearn that did it, those are manipulater that take advantage of bad news to instigate a panic sell, simple as that

you can see instead that the market is still too young to not being easily manipulated

Bitcoin's market capitalization is currently around 6 billion USD. That looks like a lot but it is not. It is roughly the same as the average market cap for stocks in the Dow Jones index so it can be easily manipulated. Furthermore not being a regulated market it is certainly more exposed to all sort of deceptive and manipulative techniques some of which would be considered outright criminal activity in financial markets. In any case best think is to focus on fundamentals which continue to be bullish. Mining power continues to flock to the Bitcoin network so this dip is a nice opportunity to pile up some more coins.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

And we have this one too -> https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-mining-rate-sets-new-milestone-ignoring-bitcoin-gloom/

+7% incoming... -> https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty.

16th consecutive increase in difficulty.

So who said Bitcoin is dead?

That implies that the miners are confident that the price of bitcoin will rise so they invest a lot of money in the bitcoin.

But i think right now the market is in the mood of correction last the bitcoin reached the low of $370 and now everyone is telling that bitcoin has got two support level on crash one is $350 and last is $320 if the last support is broke we can see the panic selling till $250

Correct. But it also implies that there is more money invested in equipment that can do no other useful thing other than mining bitcoins and consequently the network is more secure and more valuable. Price follows value in the long run.