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Author Topic: BIG bullish indicator as we enter 2016...  (Read 4278 times)
Cryptology (OP)
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December 23, 2015, 08:17:04 AM
 #1

Difficulty reached a new high with biggest ever increase. Bitcoin price can only go in one direction in the medium term.

https://blockchain.info/charts/difficulty?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
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December 23, 2015, 08:54:47 AM
 #2

Or some miners leave because they can't profit, difficulty goes down, and price goes down... you know, the other highly possible scenario




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December 23, 2015, 08:57:46 AM
 #3

Or some miners leave because they can't profit, difficulty goes down, and price goes down... you know, the other highly possible scenario

price usually do not follow the diff, is the other way around, so the price will remain there it is just the diff that it will adjust in a way that it will profitable again and always for those that can remain in play

also if everyone of them has the same electricity i'm guessing who among them will leave? none, simply no more miners will join, no one will leave anything
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December 23, 2015, 12:10:45 PM
 #4

Or some miners leave because they can't profit, difficulty goes down, and price goes down... you know, the other highly possible scenario

Difficulty looks like a rocket to the moon and you claim that a complete mining meltdown is a "highly possible scenario". You serious?

price usually do not follow the diff, is the other way around, so the price will remain there it is just the diff that it will adjust in a way that it will profitable again and always for those that can remain in play

also if everyone of them has the same electricity i'm guessing who among them will leave? none, simply no more miners will join, no one will leave anything

price != value
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December 23, 2015, 12:26:37 PM
 #5

Or some miners leave because they can't profit, difficulty goes down, and price goes down... you know, the other highly possible scenario

Difficulty looks like a rocket to the moon and you claim that a complete mining meltdown is a "highly possible scenario". You serious?

price usually do not follow the diff, is the other way around, so the price will remain there it is just the diff that it will adjust in a way that it will profitable again and always for those that can remain in play

also if everyone of them has the same electricity i'm guessing who among them will leave? none, simply no more miners will join, no one will leave anything

price != value

it's the same actually, value as i see it is the future price that may happen, so talking about today you can refer it as price, if you speak for the future value is more appropriate
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December 23, 2015, 12:34:04 PM
 #6

Difficulty reached a new high with biggest ever increase. Bitcoin price can only go in one direction in the medium term.

https://blockchain.info/charts/difficulty?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
oh fuck more good news, it indicates were going to dump soon
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December 23, 2015, 01:55:20 PM
 #7

nowadays i find more and more new things why the price of the bitcoin should grow even more than it is now though the price is pretty much stable and can drop at any time i wouldnt be so confident about it though i hope the price will increase because of that i will buy some coins for the money i have left over

 
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December 23, 2015, 03:50:12 PM
 #8

nowadays i find more and more new things why the price of the bitcoin should grow even more than it is now though the price is pretty much stable and can drop at any time i wouldnt be so confident about it though i hope the price will increase because of that i will buy some coins for the money i have left over

So many bullish indicators...
Mining power at record levels, blocks filling up due to more transactions, supply halving approaching.
Only a catastrophic event like some crypto primitive being seriously compromised or several G7 countries outlawing Bitcoin can stop it from reaching new highs in 2016.

One can only fill sorrow for all the bears out there... they are going to miss out a great money making opportunity.

Disclaimer: I'm long BTC and looking to pile-up even more.

Interesting read by the way -> https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-headlines-reuters-publishes-a-bitcoin-price-article-predicting-record-highs-in-2016/
~Bitcoin~
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December 23, 2015, 04:01:29 PM
 #9

This difficulty may go down if the price doesn't move above the current mark after halving as lots of miners will left mining. I wonder what they will do with all of those mining rigs.  Grin Huh

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December 23, 2015, 04:12:29 PM
 #10

This difficulty may go down if the price doesn't move above the current mark after halving as lots of miners will left mining. I wonder what they will do with all of those mining rigs.  Grin Huh


Don't you think that companies that are investing millions of $ in mining equipment have factored in the halving into their plans particularly given that the halving schedule is public information?
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December 23, 2015, 05:17:38 PM
 #11

It's great that the difficulty is going up to the highest levels ever, but don't forget that we have been sitting at around $220-$250 for a very long time. And at that time the difficulty was also increasing, not as much as now, but it was increasing. This price gives miners more reason to turn on their hardware, and that could be the reason for this difficulty jump.

They also anticipate on the price that will go up because the demand will increase due to people that are willing to buy coins before the block halving. I am fairly sure if the price stays around $500 without moving much, the difficulty will still jump with at least 5-10% per difficulty adjustment. These prices are great for miners. If the price goes up even more, then it's even better for them. 
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December 23, 2015, 06:31:15 PM
 #12

It's great that the difficulty is going up to the highest levels ever, but don't forget that we have been sitting at around $220-$250 for a very long time. And at that time the difficulty was also increasing, not as much as now, but it was increasing. This price gives miners more reason to turn on their hardware, and that could be the reason for this difficulty jump.

They also anticipate on the price that will go up because the demand will increase due to people that are willing to buy coins before the block halving. I am fairly sure if the price stays around $500 without moving much, the difficulty will still jump with at least 5-10% per difficulty adjustment. These prices are great for miners. If the price goes up even more, then it's even better for them.  

You're argument is flawed. You're missing the point that this is the highest level ever difficulty has reached and the biggest ever increase in difficulty. These are not miners "turning on" their mining equipment as you claim. This is brand new capacity joining the network at massive rates. If you mind checking the media you'll see that several miners have made announcements of significant capacity and efficiency increases in the recent past.

You also miss the point that price and difficulty will never be correlated in the short term. If they would even an idiot would make money trading and that is not the case. Speculation is based on appreciating the differences in price and value of an asset and trading accordingly. Hash power / difficulty is one of most, if not the most, important determinants of the value of bitcoins.
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December 23, 2015, 06:33:27 PM
 #13


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December 23, 2015, 06:47:11 PM
 #14

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December 23, 2015, 08:00:50 PM
 #15

This difficulty may go down if the price doesn't move above the current mark after halving as lots of miners will left mining. I wonder what they will do with all of those mining rigs.  Grin Huh


If the price does not rise after the halving, the difficult will go down. This happened to shark coin. It will also happen to bitcoin.
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December 26, 2015, 06:52:28 AM
 #16

It's great that the difficulty is going up to the highest levels ever, but don't forget that we have been sitting at around $220-$250 for a very long time. And at that time the difficulty was also increasing, not as much as now, but it was increasing. This price gives miners more reason to turn on their hardware, and that could be the reason for this difficulty jump.

They also anticipate on the price that will go up because the demand will increase due to people that are willing to buy coins before the block halving. I am fairly sure if the price stays around $500 without moving much, the difficulty will still jump with at least 5-10% per difficulty adjustment. These prices are great for miners. If the price goes up even more, then it's even better for them.  

You're argument is flawed. You're missing the point that this is the highest level ever difficulty has reached and the biggest ever increase in difficulty. These are not miners "turning on" their mining equipment as you claim. This is brand new capacity joining the network at massive rates. If you mind checking the media you'll see that several miners have made announcements of significant capacity and efficiency increases in the recent past.

You also miss the point that price and difficulty will never be correlated in the short term. If they would even an idiot would make money trading and that is not the case. Speculation is based on appreciating the differences in price and value of an asset and trading accordingly. Hash power / difficulty is one of most, if not the most, important determinants of the value of bitcoins.


I'm guessing you are bullish for 2016?




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December 26, 2015, 06:58:55 AM
 #17

I didnt really follow the asic manufacturers but arent the next gen asics out?

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December 26, 2015, 07:57:01 AM
 #18

I'm guessing you are bullish for 2016?

Yes. Very much. If there are no negative events in Bitcoin security and regulatory landscape I'm looking for Bitcoin to make new highs in 2016 (relative to 2015) in a conservative scenario. In an optimistic scenario I think it can touch $1000 or come very close to this figure. In any case I do expect the bullish trend to continue fueled by:
1. Increased adoption as revealed by more transactions in the network.
2. Increased hashing power and hence increased security and therefore higher value of the network.
3. Reduction of supply of new asset supply due to halving by mid 2016.

Of course in the short term anything can happen as any trader with a significant position can push the price up or down. My expectation are on the mid term trend.

I didnt really follow the asic manufacturers but arent the next gen asics out?

I don't know exactly but looking at the last massive difficulty increases looks like this could be the case.
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December 26, 2015, 10:33:58 PM
 #19

I can't really see any correlation of difficulty and price. It's related to spiraling hardware specs which cares not for what traders are doing. The traders who dictate the price probably don't care as long it all still creaks along.
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December 27, 2015, 03:20:03 AM
 #20

There are lots of positive indicators such as increased transaction volume, search statistics etc, and you pick something that has never led the price? Notice the difficulty has roughly doubled since June, when the price was oddly enough roughly half what it's been lately. All you are seeing is the miners rushing to catch up the doubling of price that ALREADY HAPPENED!
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