Bitcoin Forum

We are moving fast towards the bitcoin halving. In about six months the mining supply will drop to half. Do you think we will see a rally in the price before or after that? Do you believe this can set a new high?

Personally, I think this kind of thread will be better suited to go to the speculation section... but to answer your question, it's really hard to say. 

Obviously, it should theoretically double in price... but the thing is, is that it still comes down to what users are willing to pay for Bitcoins.  I feel that this volatility and price surges that have been happening for the past couple of months have all been due to speculation of what the halving will do, and the feeling of needing to acquire more coins before the halving comes.  So, it's possible that by the time the halving comes, the prices will have already "doubled" in some sense and not rise at all, because people have already acquired what they wanted to acquire.

It all comes down to how much demand is out for the coin before and after the halving happens.

I hope so, like the last poster said the price really should double but i think that is unlikely in that time scale, i feel that its a buyers market at the minute.  there has been a number of attempts in the last few weeks at a price increase, but people are only willing to pay so much at the minute and have reigned it back in.

i would estimate we will see a price between 700-1300 USD.

I personally think the bitcoin price will rise. No one can tell for sure! In theory it should rise, but judging by what we have seen with the LTC halving, we could see its price double before the halving to then drop again to the same prices we are seeing now to then start a new steady rise. But... let's wait and see :)

I think that BTC price could rise up, probably around the double of the actual valure....but i want also to consider that if BTC double is value, some big owners will dump a lot of coins, making the price go down again...but, yes! We can will have a new high!

Theoretically, there is a high chance that Bitcoin will hit a new high, since the scarcity would be increased, and the miners would have to fell their coins for more to make a profit or even cover their costs. Logically, this would mean we would see new highs.

In reality, we might now see an increase that would be worth taking note of. Miners may be forced out of the space, resulting in less difficulty for other miners, meaning they subsequently have to mine that much less, reducing costs overall.

It is too difficult to determine what is going to happen with the halving as of right now, and we will just have to wait and see what happens with Bitcoin as it progresses.

For sure bitcoin price will go up to some remarkable market value for the bitcoin. Once halving done automatically mining will be very low then automatically price will up with demand.

we will see a new high price on 2016, i can't say exactly when
but With lot of speculation of other people and news
i dont know if it's be like 2013 BTC price or higher than 2013 BTC price

Yes $1300 as the new ATH and then having a stronger correction with a bottom of $700 at least.
After that swinging around $800-$900. Something like that and it would have been a successful 2016 imo.
Higher prices are always welcome of course. :)

Only bitcoin know what will do. So to have the answer of the main post must find bitcoin and must ask an interview from it. Very carefully, because "him" never speak about its secrets must create a question which indirectly can give an idea about the trend of the price which he have in mind to follow after the halving. For example a question like this: How do you think about the situation in China? Do you expect any further regulation more than the actual one? Then, after he will give its answer you can ask: Have heard that they will do this if you will have a higher price? What do you think you about this? And for sure, after this super intelligent question, "he" will eat the bait and will give the desired answer. In this way you can learn the price of it after halving. This interview must be made 2-3 before halving in order that the answer given will have to do those days. The only problem is that "he" is very busy because is requested every day more. How to resolve this problem?

i smell a new ath for the 2016, you see this time we begin from a higher point than what it was when there was the 1200 ath, from 400 reaching a 1200+ look more easy, it just a 3x increase, nothing so impossible for bitcoin

We will see a high price in 2016, it has already started leading to the end of 2015. If we are getting anywhere near an ATH then that will be in the couple of months before the 2016 halving so i am thinking around April/May but of course that is my opinion and i am not a pro trader so who knows what is coming. Price is going to be one to look out for closer to the time.

well, it's still not exactly known when will the price skyrocket sir
you can predict with your own opinion
still i need to predict the real thing could happen

The price will stay the same I think. I remmbered that form the last halving.

If it goes up, it would be good, but seeing the current value is very interesting for i doubt we see some heavy price action.

Prices are likely to go up in the next six month but I think we'll see some wild swings. To be honest I'd be very surprised if we wouldn't see some big pumps around the halving. So a new ATH is quite possible.

That is closing in very fast I must say. I think we will see a rise in the few months leading upto the halving and then when the halving comes we will see a dip but it will be left in better shape than when the rise started. Saying that the halving may already be priced in on the recent rise. Anyway I doubt we will see a new ath.

Probably... Because the inflation rate is going to go down.

well there will surely be huge differences in price in my opinion because its an important event for bitcoin, most probably the price will increase a lot because the reward of a block will be decreased a lot though its just my ideas

I think panic and speculation will add an extra of 25% growth in the price the last month before the halving. I am quite sure that there will be a huge peak at some point before the halving, but when things have cooled down after the halving, the price will come down to more realistic levels again. I think touching a new ATH is possible, but we won't stay above $1000 for long.

In the short term (days or weeks around the date) it will not have any effect or maybe even put pressure down as this is a highly anticipated event that will be completely discounted in the price.
The positive effect of halving on bitcoin prices will be felt over a longer period of time.
Trading around the halving event is akin to trading the USD around non farm payroll releases in the US. The almost sure thing is that there will be volatility but prices may go in any direction. Markets are never that predictable. If they would it would be very easy to make money trading and that is generally not the case.

If we sort out block size drama, with this halving event upcomming, we could see new ATH with ease. Bitcoin is just warming up past months so in my opinion, we could have four digit floor next year.

The price will increase as I think scarcity will increase too, demand and supply theory, will determine the price.

I am one of the believer that bitcoin will test a new high level prices due to the upcoming halving.
The supporting point for my prediction would be the new huge hash rate of bitcoin network. The user base of bitcoin is multi-fold bigger when we compared to the last halving and last bitcoin's lifetime high-price.

i think so and hope it. if the news is covering bitcoin a week before the halving, it might trigger a huge rally. the only thing that is bad is that these new people will surely sell at some point. i hope the price will recover from these dumps.

At first i thought we would see a new ath but now although i thinkwe may go over the 1200 mark it will only be temporary and then drop back down to the 5-600 mark and hopefully stabilising around their as the floor.

It would have been the only logical thing that could happen, yes. The price increase.

Yes that is correct that it is not exactly known which is why there was several disclaimers namely "my opinion" you see I'm not a pro trader so who knows whats coming... This is speculation and that is what it was and what this thread is so you keep looking for a crystal ball to give you when the real thing could happen.

What we are seeing here is a battle as to which price is needed for miners to keep making profit of their mining 'business'.
A 500 USD price is a fair value to keep on mining and making profit.

Yes. Especially now with more of the bigger financial institutions on board with bitcoin compared to the last halvening. Get your popcorn ready.

new price high? no we won't, but will we see a huge price? probably yes

thing we have to do is to have highest possible price before halving, just to see even larger price after it, now price is 430$ so if we want to see 900$ after halving we need to have atleast 600$ price now, which is hard

will we see huge price? of course, compared to what price we have now, will it be new price high? probably not

to see new price high we need  to have large price now, and now we have pretty small price, 400$ only, so we will be lucky if we will see 800$ after halving

i can only hope that we see a new price high.

but also i think it is still possible this time around, because there is more money from investors in the market since last time.

There wont be any all time price high as willy bot is dead now,the only thing that bitcoin was that high was because of willy bot.

I don't know what would be the price of bitcoin at the time of halving but I am pretty sure that we will see much higher price in compare to present price.

There's too many people just expecting/assuming a price rise for my liking.

Irl trading I always look out for "Buy the rumor, Sell the news" scenarios and should the BTC price have an upward spike towards 600-700 just before the halving, then I will be selling into it, up to 50% of my holding.
The cost basis of the Chinese miners makes this a neutral event imo, only the hype provides a trading opportunity.

Right now there is 3600 coins made everyday. After halving there will be only 1800 coins made per day.
If half of the coins mined are sold when they are mined then there will be 369 000$ less sells per day after halving.
And why would people stop buying after halving? So obviously price will go up because there will be about as much buying as before but less selling,
because miners can't sell as much as they sold before.

Yes, I understand the conventional logic. We shall see how logical the Bitcoin market is.

Thats true, More big whales coming.

we already stay for a long time at $400, this make me think this just a rumors price will jump high maybe price will increase but not much.

Yeah we might be seeing a major increase in the bitcoin price because the price needs to increase for mining to be profitable.

Why wouldn't it go up?

If half of the mined coins are sold then after halving there will be 27000 coins less sold every month.

And if someone would buy only 17000 coins right now price would go to 700$ per coin.

I think the price level we're on actually (380-450) is already a result of speculation with the block reward halving. But it could be much higher if the block size debate wasn't that hefty.

So my predictions are:

- There is consensus about block size again: We can see perfectly the old high of $1200 and go even higher. (I don't think it will go that much higher, though; not more than $2000-2500).
- Things stay like they are, with many competing clients and split community: Then I predict a short pump to $700 or $800 and then another downfall to the actual level or even lower. It's possible that an altcoin like ETH can reach the market cap of Bitcoin in this case (No, I'm not a Eth shill ;) ).

When a multitude of literal children and degenerate gamblers think a certain outcome is a sure thing... they're usually right.

I mean, real world demand for bath salts, MMM payments, and alpaca socks is only going to stay the same, and supply will be halved.

Speculators stashing them away to dump on a halving pump are a negligible portion of the market.

Mewn time sewn boyz.

 8)

I like people that are talking about realistic stuff. In what time frame do you think we can surpass the old ATH as you say in the bolded part?

Regarding an altcoin that may reach the market cap of Bitcoin; With Bitcoin having a market cap this low I can definitely see a certain altcoin come very close to the market cap of Bitcoin. It won't be due to the demand of that coin, but more due to one or two people holding nearly all the coins, and that may result in the price to sky rocket to insanely high price levels.

I predicted that ETH would be pumped to a market cap of $1 billion at the time the market cap was "just" $500 million. It was quite easy to spot as I have been watching every movement of ETH since the very beginning. It's being pumped with the same amount of coins each time. The guys behind this massive pump play it very well.

That are some nice predictions that u make :)
I hope that will come true and the price rises alot.
Everyone that buys in now, will then have double their money, which is amazing.

Wekk ETH main strategy is pump till the sky,and they already showed what they came for.ETH will be always pumped very easy the whales around it are making a good work do you remember ETH 200ksatoshis?It were on the last month the value of it,soo the whales of bitcoin just changed into it and looks what they done 3000k satoshis value and now on the 2400k ,soo i believe some people around are very pissed to had lost several bitcoins with halving aproaching.One thing is sure all altcoins will get red when the pump at bitcoin start ,there is no main interestes besides the halving.

I highly, highly doubt that we will have the opportunity to see a new price high just from the halving, but considering the market, you never know.

I expect we'll see something more like $600-700, maybe higher than that.

It's unlikely to see a big rise like we have expected. But in terms of growth and potential it would not surprise me if we would reach an all time high this year.
Bitcoin is worth it.

Interesting observation. I have wondered if this etherium pump is part of the lead up to bitcoin halving? It seems to have been effective as a way to shake quite a few people out of a portion of their bitcoins.

In general I think bitcoin will rise due to halving which is why i added more to my stack in the $200's and not selling for a good while yet.

The next bubble will be only a small part due to  market forces of the halving though. There will be a lot of pumping. Speculation. New investors rushing in from stocks and precious metals. Hope the block size is up to it.

It's not.

Hence, the massive dumpage every. single. time it manages to get pumped to the mid to high 400's. Also the reason ETH buyers have seen up to 15X returns on choosing a less artificially handicapped alternative.

I dont think we will be able to see an all time high this here as it wont ever happen again,for sure bitcoin price will go up but only a few percentage.

Your speculation is completely baseless. No one can predict exactly that only a few percentage of price surge is possible due to halving. Halving is in very big event, happening once for 4 years approximately, so we can expect a huge consequence in price levels of bitcoin.

Actually the all time price hike that happen a few years ago was cause by willy bot.
Which was connected to Mt. Gox so i dont think there will we an all time high price just because there will be a halving.
http://www.pfhub.com/bitcoins-1200-value-allegedly-manipulated-by-willy-the-bot-767/

I think there will come a high new price but its also unpredictable but I think its possible for sure without no doubts.
Its also that people need to believe in the bitcoin so the price will also rise to a higher amount.

That is really hard to say. Because you never know what will happen with the currency. You can see now that the value is rising slowly.
And that is very good. The problem is that you dont know when it will stop and if it is going down.

That's maybe the greatest delusion about Bitcoin that currently keeps price sideways. After halving, expect ~250 USD if not earlier.

I am quite sure that the guys behind this pump made a good $3-$5 million in BTC. That profit is also being used to create massive amounts of volume and to manipulate the price even further.

Just look at the buy side of the orderbook right now, it has 12,500BTC open buy orders, and from time to time you'll see it go up to around 15,000BTC. A while back there were only 2,000-4,000BTC in open buy orders. That's a good difference.

Whatever happens the coming months, at some point the party will be over and the price will return to earth where it belongs.

Well we will see a new price high when we are on the last halving of bitcoin since its going to be near its ending phase of mining.
By that time bitcoin price will surely double or triple todays price.

Assuming 4 years per 210,000 blocks - that's over 130 years away.

In that time I'd expect BTC to be worth 2-3x today's price simply due to inflation eroding the value of fiat. And I suspect I'm underestimating the power of inflation.

i hope surely, not because it would be pointless for us, and for bitcoin itself, keep in mind that by the look of the current diff trend miners need 8k worth in value for each coin, by 2028, so waiting for the fee era just for 10k is a little bit off....

Indeed, most likely we will see a new price because of the halving but its still patience we need to see if this really gonna happen.
The bitcoin is unpredictable these days everything can happen with it.

The price is surely unpredictable right now because many traders are manipulating the price in the market and people who has a smaller amount than them cant do anything but join the ride.

I think the price of bitcoin at the time of halving would be around $700 and if it reaches there then it would be good value to hold for many of us.

i think it is too early to predict if we will see a new highest price, but price will rise, and of course price will be high

i think that if we will keep 450$ price now, after halving we should see 750$, but if price now will fall then price after halving will be smaller of course, but anyway price after halving will rise

You never know what will happen with the value after the halving. Of course it will be more worth in the future.
But it takes time and that is really important. I hope that it will be more worth and that we can all sell it later with some good profit.

i don't really think that we will see new pric high for sure, but  i am very sure that price will be really high, maybe 650$ or i hope even 750$

price rises even now so that is very good, everyone buys bitcoins just to sell them for more after halving so we should see even higher price after halving

it's still predicted by all people who trust to bitcoin after halving the price will increase maybe price will rise but not much, i think.

But, I predict most of the people will not go wrong. At the same time we can not expect flying bitcoin prices, but surely we are going to see gradual increase in bitcoin prices as the demand will increase over time but with fewer block rewards. Both math and economical principles are in favor of bitcoin price up surge.

I think it will rise after the halving but not that high. Because it is now rising very slowly so you know that it will not rise that fast later.
And we should accept that and just wait a little longer to have some profit in the future, because patience is very important.

i don't think that we will go to 1000$ or more after halving, you see, halving could increase price like this, but everyone will sell their bitcoins so that means that price will fall down instantly so price will be around 800$ which i think is pretty high too, compared to 410$ now

Exactly said bitcoin price will reach $1000 on halving but the price will not be stable for a long time. I don't believe most people will sell bitcoin when price reaches high on halving.

You never know what will happen with the value after the halving. Because it is really hard to predict a currency, that is almost impossible.
But we have to wait and see for what is going to happen. I think that it will rise very slowly and that we have to wait a long time to make some profit.

i believe we might see a huge increase because of the halving because people are willing for the price to rise

despite that the price might fall really fast after the pump thus people might lose some money who will buy at the incorrect time

even if it goes to $1000 it is not going to get there over night it goes there fast but it takes a while and many will sell on each stop and miss out on the big profit.

well, atleast the people still get the profit from selling their coins.
even not in rates $1000, still $600~$900 is high too

I do not believe that the BTC price will be higher than $500 and if so...it will be  during a very short time.

Most are saying it will go over.

Because the the coins mined are almost coming to an end since we are at almost 80% mined.

Yeah that hopeful trust for buy orders to come in, is like a 50/50.

And I do agree what you said on price not increasing as much.

i think the possibility of seeing a new high price is very high in this year. mostly because of the block halving that is creating a lot of hype for price rise and also the changes in block size that is gonna happen eventually in a couple of months.

Even though there is a halving that is coming as it is being hype we will still not see a new price high,we have learned from the past mistake and that wont ever happen again.

Care to share what mistake is that?

Anyway, back to the topic. Though we are expecting a spike in price, it won't be that big, but still, it will be noticeable, But it's not gonna be an ATH...

Well i think its about the willy bot where people at Mt. Gox doesnt see it coming thats why the price spike to 1k.
People back then was greedy with the profit that they got and when Mt. Gox stated that they were hacked and filling up a bankruptcy well the price plummeted.