Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: americanpegasus on January 09, 2016, 07:37:14 AM



Title: What Bitcoin's journey from $400 to $200,000 will realistically look like.
Post by: americanpegasus on January 09, 2016, 07:37:14 AM
Thankfully Berkshire Hathaway stock has already given us a great example of exactly how an asset can go from being worth $14 each to over $200,000 each throughout the course of several decades.  
  
https://i.imgur.com/uiPnSil.jpg  
  
It's conceivable that Bitcoin could make the very same journey, and might even make it faster.  
  
Here's that same chart in linear format.  If it looks familiar, that's because it heavily resembles Bitcoin's own violent and exponential movements upward, followed by subsequent periods of consolidation.  
  
https://i.imgur.com/CKGydZd.jpg
 


yeah ok it's possible, but look at the time frame, that stock required 50 years to achieve that result, and in the last 3 years the value just doubled

so bitcoin need tiem for that, in the next halving you can expect a 2x value as a stable one with some major peak

You are not considering the exponential acceleration of technological results (and Bitcoin being a medium of that acceleration).  You are also not considering that BRK was primarily an American asset which most of humanity could not partake in.  Bitcoin's ascent will be much more rapid. 
 
Consider that it took 20 years for BRK to go from inception to $400. 
 
Bitcoin did that in six
 
So, at our current velocity, you can safely assume that every decade on this chart represents a three year period.. Hold onto your butts. 


Title: Re: What Bitcoin's journey from $400 to $200,000 will realistically look like.
Post by: Cconvert2G36 on January 09, 2016, 07:47:55 AM
What Monero's journey from 0.0019 BTC to 0.0011 actually did look like.

https://i.imgur.com/Lc5VQ01.png


Title: Re: What Bitcoin's journey from $400 to $200,000 will realistically look like.
Post by: bitebits on January 09, 2016, 10:42:17 AM
I am missing the 'we are here' arrow AP :)


Title: Re: What Bitcoin's journey from $400 to $200,000 will realistically look like.
Post by: americanpegasus on January 09, 2016, 11:02:03 AM
What Monero's journey from 0.0019 BTC to 0.0011 actually did look like.


Lol, you mean Monero's journey from 50 cents USD to 50 cents USD?  The money I've put into Monero has stayed even, and has a lot of potential for future growth.  
  
That's more than I can say for money left in the stock market over the past year.  

I am missing the 'we are here' arrow AP :)


True, and the vague video game tie in.   :( 
But like Bane, I have gone mobile and it will have to do for now. 


Title: Re: What Bitcoin's journey from $400 to $200,000 will realistically look like.
Post by: 1Referee on January 09, 2016, 11:04:43 AM
BRK.A has 811,129 "active" shares priced at right now $193,900 each.

Bitcoin right now(and will only increase in the future) has 15,061.750 "active" coins priced at right now $447 each.

Difference between just over 800K shares of BH and over 15M shares of Bitcoin is way too big to accomplish the same scenario.


Title: Re: What Bitcoin's journey from $400 to $200,000 will realistically look like.
Post by: americanpegasus on January 09, 2016, 11:42:28 AM
BRK is also a useless asset that just sits there, and hopefully you can you can trade it to a greater fool down the road.
 
Bitcoin has actual utility and can grow to the second tier of money: a transactional economy. 
 
Bitcoin has a strong chance to grow to a paltry 21 times the size of BRK and could conceivably go much higher. 


Title: Re: What Bitcoin's journey from $400 to $200,000 will realistically look like.
Post by: Amph on January 09, 2016, 11:54:39 AM
yeah ok it's possible, but look at the time frame, that stock required 50 years to achieve that result, and in the last 3 years the value just doubled

so bitcoin need tiem for that, in the next halving you can expect a 2x value as a stable one with some major peak


Title: Re: What Bitcoin's journey from $400 to $200,000 will realistically look like.
Post by: americanpegasus on January 09, 2016, 12:46:41 PM
yeah ok it's possible, but look at the time frame, that stock required 50 years to achieve that result, and in the last 3 years the value just doubled

so bitcoin need tiem for that, in the next halving you can expect a 2x value as a stable one with some major peak

You are not considering the exponential acceleration of technological results (and Bitcoin being a medium of that acceleration).  You are also not considering that BRK was primarily an American asset which most of humanity could not partake in.  Bitcoin's ascent will be much more rapid. 
 
Consider that it took 20 years for BRK to go from inception to $400. 
 
Bitcoin did that in six
 
So, at our current velocity, you can safely assume that every decade on this chart represents a three year period.. Hold onto your butts. 


Title: Re: What Bitcoin's journey from $400 to $200,000 will realistically look like.
Post by: Amph on January 09, 2016, 03:46:11 PM
yeah ok it's possible, but look at the time frame, that stock required 50 years to achieve that result, and in the last 3 years the value just doubled

so bitcoin need tiem for that, in the next halving you can expect a 2x value as a stable one with some major peak

You are not considering the exponential acceleration of technological results (and Bitcoin being a medium of that acceleration).  You are also not considering that BRK was primarily an American asset which most of humanity could not partake in.  Bitcoin's ascent will be much more rapid. 
 
Consider that it took 20 years for BRK to go from inception to $400. 
 
Bitcoin did that in six
 
So, at our current velocity, you can safely assume that every decade on this chart represents a three year period.. Hold onto your butts. 

i would not assume such a strict comparison, but it's true that we are going much faster nowadays

at this point any insane prediction will coem true, when satoshi predicted it, which mean in 20 years since 2010 = 2030 at max


Title: Re: What Bitcoin's journey from $400 to $200,000 will realistically look like.
Post by: mobnepal on January 09, 2016, 04:38:48 PM
Wow it was quite steep uptrend, i have not seen any stock going like that before. But hope is ok for bitcoin but it will be over hope if you predict it to go like the above. We may see some correction after this current huge pumps.


Title: Re: What Bitcoin's journey from $400 to $200,000 will realistically look like.
Post by: n2004al on January 09, 2016, 05:37:01 PM
There are never possible to make such comparisons. Because never can happen again exactly the same situation compared to the one which is taken as an example. With big probabilities cannot happen even the verification of something which can make classify the first near of the second one. So if are not the same situation (in other words are not the same factors which act and/or even the same "push" or "power" of every, or part of those, which maybe may exist) cannot happen never the same thing. So this kind of comparisons are made by "slaves" of charts and data. Such kind of knowledge serve only as a tool of knowledge on the schools to make understand to the students a given phenomenon happen in that or this year. And to give cultivation that can help that who learn such things to be able to act in new situations. Having a wide background in a given matter help to "invent" the right solutions in new situations which need new solutions.


Title: Re: What Bitcoin's journey from $400 to $200,000 will realistically look like.
Post by: helloeverybody on January 09, 2016, 05:42:02 PM
That would be amazing if it goes like that, Likely though i don't know . I think obviously we would not take as many years to reach that point though since once it gets more known the adoption should explode or im hoping so anyway.


Title: Re: What Bitcoin's journey from $400 to $200,000 will realistically look like.
Post by: Bitcoinbro on January 09, 2016, 05:47:56 PM
All bitcoin needs is time, time to grow
Time to let more people adapt to it
Right now it's been going very slowly because of how the media puts bitcoin out there


Title: Re: What Bitcoin's journey from $400 to $200,000 will realistically look like.
Post by: richardsNY on January 09, 2016, 05:48:43 PM
That would be amazing if it goes like that, Likely though i don't know . I think obviously we would not take as many years to reach that point though since once it gets more known the adoption should explode or im hoping so anyway.

What do you consider to be the right amount of years to see such a price? (if ever). Thousands of institutional investors have had no problems investing their millions into a certain stock. Bitcoin is not like that at this point. Current exchanges can't handle millions worth of $ in deposits every day. That needs to change.


Title: Re: What Bitcoin's journey from $400 to $200,000 will realistically look like.
Post by: gentlemand on January 09, 2016, 06:34:22 PM
Current exchanges can't handle millions worth of $ in deposits every day. That needs to change.

The 'proper' exchanges like Itbit and Gemini certainly could. I don't know how shaky the banking relationships are for the other ones. The main issue would be getting enough coin holders to pile in to provide some volume. I guess lots of hard cash might tempt a few out.


Title: Re: What Bitcoin's journey from $400 to $200,000 will realistically look like.
Post by: thejaytiesto on January 09, 2016, 06:37:22 PM
Lol I just made a thread about this and didn't notice this one was already created. Well, no such thing as enough positive threads for Bitcoin I guess. I also pointed out at the fact that whales will sell in the peaks which makes the "oh but early investors will become insanely rich" not a problem cause the current whales will for granted sell BTC in every peak, so it will get distributed more evenly.


Title: Re: What Bitcoin's journey from $400 to $200,000 will realistically look like.
Post by: kollo99 on January 09, 2016, 06:38:52 PM
I never hear about it, in my country they are not so famous, and is not a promoted company to buy stock


Title: Re: What Bitcoin's journey from $400 to $200,000 will realistically look like.
Post by: fr4nkthetank on January 09, 2016, 06:43:14 PM
BRK is also a useless asset that just sits there, and hopefully you can you can trade it to a greater fool down the road.
 
Bitcoin has actual utility and can grow to the second tier of money: a transactional economy. 
 
Bitcoin has a strong chance to grow to a paltry 21 times the size of BRK and could conceivably go much higher. 

well brk owns real companies, that provide real jobs, that make real products and give real services....


Title: Re: What Bitcoin's journey from $400 to $200,000 will realistically look like.
Post by: pereira4 on January 09, 2016, 07:12:00 PM
BRK is also a useless asset that just sits there, and hopefully you can you can trade it to a greater fool down the road.
  
Bitcoin has actual utility and can grow to the second tier of money: a transactional economy.  
  
Bitcoin has a strong chance to grow to a paltry 21 times the size of BRK and could conceivably go much higher.  

well brk owns real companies, that provide real jobs, that make real products and give real services....

You are delusional if you think BRK-A price per stock corresponds in real life in a 1:1 scale to the actual produced goods by those companies. The stock market is a big speculation and people will price things whatever they are willing to pay for them.

Bitcoin offers real (and extremely unique) services thanks to its technology, which is already providing new jobs as well, and can be used to sell real products (and make real products if you get founding thanks to it).

You aren't looking at it the right way, this is not how things work to be frank.


Title: Re: What Bitcoin's journey from $400 to $200,000 will realistically look like.
Post by: dloghwak on January 09, 2016, 07:34:44 PM
BRK is also a useless asset that just sits there, and hopefully you can you can trade it to a greater fool down the road.
316,000 full time employees, $196.57B revenue, awesome run business and growth performance.
Yes right who would even want to own a part of 'useless' businesses like that.


Title: Re: What Bitcoin's journey from $400 to $200,000 will realistically look like.
Post by: bitebits on January 09, 2016, 08:03:46 PM
I suddenly caught myself fancying having one Berkshire Hathaway stock. It is appealing just by it's price.

Then I caught myself really going crazy at thinking owning one bitcoin could have the same appealing effect. When the price keeps rising to levels people can't just take their spare money and purchase a whole Bitcoin share, it gets more appealing to actually own one.


Title: Re: What Bitcoin's journey from $400 to $200,000 will realistically look like.
Post by: Dafar on July 01, 2016, 04:29:39 AM
When will it be my turn