Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: myself on January 08, 2013, 05:12:38 PM



Title: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on January 08, 2013, 05:12:38 PM
Some of you already know the sentiment index now there is more, irrational index, risk score and greed score
link:https://bitfinex.com/pages/stats (http://bit.ly/11cdgnm)


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: StarenseN on January 08, 2013, 05:14:22 PM
Any words of explanation ?


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on January 08, 2013, 05:18:15 PM
Any words of explanation ?
oh Raphael did forgot to add description for the risk score I will email him about that


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: unclescrooge on January 09, 2013, 09:14:58 AM
Are the explanations better like that? We can't make exact calculations public but you get the idea I think :D


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: StarenseN on January 09, 2013, 10:37:49 AM
Indeed I was interested about the math behind, but the explanations are "ok" :)

Thanks !


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on January 10, 2013, 03:32:20 PM
Quote
BSI as of January 10, 2013 - 10:31:14 AM EST:
1:2 - Very bullish


Quote
Greed Score: 89.0


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on January 14, 2013, 05:34:52 PM
Quote
BSI as of January 14, 2013 - 12:33:51 PM EST:
1:2 - Very bullish
Irrational Index

This index analyzes user behavior on the market and reflects their coherence and commitment to make profit
Irrational Index for Bear: 0.3
Irrational Index for Bull: 0.1
Risk Score

The risk score shows how much traders are willing to risk on the market
Risk Score: 67.0
Greed Score

This score shows how much bitfinex users love and are able to make profit
Greed Score: 101.0


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on January 17, 2013, 07:32:54 PM

https://i.imgur.com/ZHqsp.png




Quote
Irrational Index

This index analyzes user behavior on the market and reflects their coherence and commitment to make profit
Irrational Index for Bear: 0.9
Irrational Index for Bull: 1588.4


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: Crypt_Current on January 17, 2013, 07:39:31 PM

https://i.imgur.com/ZHqsp.png




Quote
Irrational Index

This index analyzes user behavior on the market and reflects their coherence and commitment to make profit
Irrational Index for Bear: 0.9
Irrational Index for Bull: 1588.4

Daaaaaaaaaamn, how high can that greed score go?  I signed up and it's very tempting to play buuut... I was burned by Bitcoinica and this looks ALOT like Bitcoinica :-D


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on January 17, 2013, 07:56:09 PM
Daaaaaaaaaamn, how high can that greed score go? 
that depend on the market participants on bfx


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: StarenseN on January 17, 2013, 08:02:59 PM
I can't use anymore leverage (set as 1:5) on long position, is that due to shortage of lendings ??


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on January 17, 2013, 08:04:49 PM
I can't use anymore leverage (set as 1:5) on long position, is that due to shortage of lendings ??
yes there are only 3,98 USD available


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: StarenseN on January 17, 2013, 08:24:40 PM
Okay  ;)

I hope that lenders will come again :)


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on January 21, 2013, 01:49:31 AM
Quote
BSI as of January 20, 2013 - 08:48:37 PM EST:
1:6 - Very bullish


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on January 21, 2013, 01:15:13 PM
Quote
BSI as of January 21, 2013 - 08:14:45 AM EST:
1:3 - Very bullish


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: runeks on January 23, 2013, 05:12:58 PM
Why don't you show price information and order books?


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on January 23, 2013, 05:34:57 PM
Why don't you show price information and order books?
who said we dont ?


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: runeks on January 23, 2013, 07:13:00 PM
Why don't you show price information and order books?
who said we dont ?
So it's only available to registered users? Cause I can't find it on the front page.

Just saying I'm curious to see your order book, but I don't plan on trading on your platform. :)

Is there any disadvantage to traders or BitFinex in showing the data without requiring an account?


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on January 23, 2013, 08:00:35 PM
So it's only available to registered users? Cause I can't find it on the front page.
is available to anyone that got the link
https://bitfinex.com/pages/order_book https://bitfinex.com/pages/ll_order_book


Quote
Is there any disadvantage to traders or BitFinex in showing the data without requiring an account?
why you make this question when first did not get answered and is not clear that you needs a account to see the orderbook, ¿prejudgements and assumptions?  ;D  




Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: runeks on January 26, 2013, 04:25:09 PM
So it's only available to registered users? Cause I can't find it on the front page.
is available to anyone that got the link
https://bitfinex.com/pages/order_book https://bitfinex.com/pages/ll_order_book
Beautiful! Thanks.

Quote
Quote
Is there any disadvantage to traders or BitFinex in showing the data without requiring an account?
why you make this question when first did not get answered and is not clear that you needs a account to see the orderbook, ¿prejudgements and assumptions?  ;D  
Cause I was impatient and wanted an answer to what I thought were the case. I was wrong :)


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on February 15, 2013, 12:51:12 PM
Quote
Bitfinex Irrational Index

This index analyzes user behavior on the market and reflects their coherence and commitment to make profit
Irrational Index for Bear: 1.9
Irrational Index for Bull: 1.4
Bitfinex Risk Score

The risk score shows how much traders are willing to risk on the market
Bitfinex Risk Score: 159.0
Bitfinex Greed Score

This score shows how much bitfinex users love and are able to make profit
Bitfinex Greed Score: 408.0

risk on for the week end


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: Ichthyo on February 16, 2013, 04:35:08 AM
While I understand that you do not want to reveal the math behind those indices, I'd welcome any help for interpreting them. The sentiment index is self explanatory, but all the other ones are enticing, but not very much revealing. For example, is risk score == 154.0 high or low? Can we apply any units of measurement? like e.g. "the average user is willing to blow $154 through the chimney right now". At least you might indicate some qualitative ranges or show some past graphs, so we can deduce what is "normal".

just saying -- I am well aware that you have other much more important stuff in the development pipeline on Bitfinex


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on February 16, 2013, 05:29:48 AM
hmmmm i will put together some wiki info for that today


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on February 16, 2013, 06:40:13 PM
https://community.bitfinex.com/showwiki.php?title=Bitfinex+Risk+Score
happy with that ?  ;D


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on February 18, 2013, 11:48:45 PM
@ Ichthyo i posted this https://community.bitfinex.com/showwiki.php?title=Bitfinex+Greed+Score and note to compare this score so you can determine if bitfinex users on average gain or lose money   ;D


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: Ichthyo on February 19, 2013, 06:37:35 AM
thanks, these explanations are really helpful


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on February 23, 2013, 04:26:15 PM
https://i.imgur.com/0aHpdKo.png

edit:
Quote
myself: also this is the first time this month that on average BFX users are losing money 5:31 PM


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: Ichthyo on February 23, 2013, 04:57:01 PM
Quote
myself: also this is the first time this month that on average BFX users are losing money 5:31 PM
[/quote]

we can conclude that from the risk score being larger than the greed score, correct?


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on February 23, 2013, 05:20:45 PM
we can conclude that from the risk score being larger than the greed score, correct?
also the sentiment index is bullish but the market went down


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on March 05, 2013, 09:31:56 AM
https://i.imgur.com/geWSwgu.png
and bull dont take profits of the table .. start to worry me all that greed


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on March 06, 2013, 01:33:37 PM
Quote
Bitfinex Risk Score

The risk score shows how much traders are willing to risk on the market
Bitfinex Risk Score: 90.0
Bitfinex Greed Score

This score shows how much bitfinex users love and are able to make profit
Bitfinex Greed Score: 3082.0
so most BFX traders on the average are on the good side of the market and they are in huge profits, just remember nobody went broke taking profits so dont be afraid to take profits, the profit is not profit untill you close the position


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: drawingthesun on March 06, 2013, 03:16:37 PM
What types of profits are the traders making? I tried day trading on Gox a while back and lost money.


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on March 06, 2013, 03:38:32 PM
What type of profits are the traders making? I tried day trading on Gox a while back and lost money.
i am unable to tell you that and even if i had access to that information is wont disclose it  you will have to ask traders about that

example: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=144461.0


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: Elwar on March 06, 2013, 03:50:20 PM
I was able to get on the site last night at home and saw that lending of dollars has over 100% annual return while Bitcoin lending yields 4%.

Even if you do not like Bitcoin or want to play the market, getting a 100% return is a pretty decent place to keep your money.

Though the risk factor is BitFinex itself at that point. Surely, if it were a bank with a track record, 100% returns on loans would be filled quickly.


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on March 06, 2013, 04:06:32 PM
Though the risk factor is BitFinex itself at that point.
the main focus is to liquidate ppl if is need to happen and dont lose lenders money

example some wonder why the margin call it goes ON so early https://community.bitfinex.com/showthread.php/153-How-to-keep-your-position-open
Quote
I am guessing that I need to have enough money to cover my loss in the "profit/loss" number. Do I need an additional margin?


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: drawingthesun on March 06, 2013, 04:14:47 PM
the main focus is to liquidate ppl if is need to happen and dont lose lenders money

I was under the impression if lenders lost money this is covered by Bitfinex to some degree?

Quote from: bitfinex 
https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/howitworks (https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/howitworks)
The exchange risk is taken on by the trader, and, in case his position loses money, he will cover the loss with funds in his trading wallet. If by any chances losses are greater than what the trader can afford, the loss is on Bitfinex, we will cover for the missing amount.


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on March 06, 2013, 04:20:04 PM
the main focus is to liquidate ppl if is need to happen and dont lose lenders money

I was under the impression if lenders lost money this is covered by Bitfinex to some degree?
yes is covered at 100% by BFX, so if the traders get to negative balance (so far we did not have a case) and cant repay the loans BFX need to put money from its pocket for the lender and the trader needs to deposit the money he lost, this is how brokers work

bad english  lol sorry if you get confused


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: Elwar on March 06, 2013, 06:47:09 PM
the main focus is to liquidate ppl if is need to happen and dont lose lenders money

I was under the impression if lenders lost money this is covered by Bitfinex to some degree?
yes is covered at 100% by BFX, so if the traders get to negative balance (so far we did not have a case) and cant repay the loans BFX need to put money from its pocket for the lender and the trader needs to deposit the money he lost, this is how brokers work

bad english  lol sorry if you get confused

Again, that is why I say that the risk is BitFinex itself. From what I understand it is run by a guy in France as a side job. While I have every bit of faith in his intentions and applaud his initiative, if everything tanks, he will likely not be able to cover anything overly huge.

But yes, if I was someone who were holding on to dollars, a chunk of it would be in BitFinex getting a 100%+ return.


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on March 06, 2013, 06:50:17 PM
Again, that is why I say that the risk is BitFinex itself. From what I understand it is run by a guy in France as a side job. While I have every bit of faith in his intentions and applaud his initiative, if everything tanks, he will likely not be able to cover anything overly huge.

But yes, if I was someone who were holding on to dollars, a chunk of it would be in BitFinex getting a 100%+ return.
here is the formula so you can make numbers https://community.bitfinex.com/showwiki.php?title=Margin+Call


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: Ichthyo on March 07, 2013, 06:40:01 AM
But yes, if I was someone who were holding on to dollars, a chunk of it would be in BitFinex getting a 100%+ return.

...what is also nice with Bitfinex is that besides the margin trading, there is also a "exchange" section where you can just forward trades to Mt.Gox. Thus, if you're in just with a few bitcoins, and you think there will be some ditch in the rates, you can sell off your bitcoins right in there and "park" the USD you got in the lending section. Obviously this won't make you rich, but I like that as a smart idea.


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on March 14, 2013, 01:55:12 AM
Quote
Bitfinex Irrational Index

This index analyzes user behavior on the market and reflects their coherence and commitment to make profit
Irrational Index for Bear: 6.1
Irrational Index for Bull: 85.4
Bitfinex Risk Score

The risk score shows how much traders are willing to risk on the market
Bitfinex Risk Score: 208.0
Bitfinex Greed Score

This score shows how much bitfinex users love and are able to make profit
Bitfinex Greed Score: 224.0
so on average not much making money on the way


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on March 19, 2013, 11:49:21 AM
Quote
BSI as of March 19, 2013 - 06:46:07 AM CDT:
1:3 - Very bullish


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on March 20, 2013, 03:58:12 AM
Quote
BSI as of March 19, 2013 - 10:58:35 PM CDT:
1:6 - Very bullish


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on March 25, 2013, 03:37:04 PM
Quote
Bitfinex Irrational Index

This index analyzes user behavior on the market and reflects their coherence and commitment to make profit
Irrational Index for Bear: 132.0
Irrational Index for Bull: 1.7
Bitfinex Risk Score

The risk score shows how much traders are willing to risk on the market
Bitfinex Risk Score: 163.0
Bitfinex Greed Score

This score shows how much bitfinex users love and are able to make profit
Bitfinex Greed Score: 851.0


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on April 03, 2013, 06:47:20 AM
Quote
Bitfinex Irrational Index

This index analyzes user behavior on the market and reflects their coherence and commitment to make profit
Irrational Index for Bear: 33.2
Irrational Index for Bull: 1.4
Bitfinex Risk Score

The risk score shows how much traders are willing to risk on the market
Bitfinex Risk Score: 323.0
Bitfinex Greed Score

This score shows how much bitfinex users love and are able to make profit
Bitfinex Greed Score: 30156.0


new record on the greed score


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: statdude on April 24, 2013, 03:22:10 PM
Can someone explain to me what the hell these #'s mean in plain english?


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on April 25, 2013, 12:48:05 PM
Can someone explain to me what the hell these #'s mean in plain english?
can you make the questions more specific


Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: Ichthyo on April 25, 2013, 03:29:48 PM
The Bitfinex folks don't want to reveal the formula behind this index #s
Probably because this would give away too much information regarding the overall situation of the platform's trading situation, which could be exploited for attacks. Because of this, they deliberately made the numbers in a way that they can't be explained in a simple way (e.g. like "its the number of USD the average trader is gaining per day")

There is one piece of information, albeit a bit vague, on the Bitfinex community wiki (https://community.bitfinex.com/showwiki.php?title=Bitfinex+Risk+Score).



@Myself:
do you notice the people are asking the same question over and over again?
<developers hat on>when the users repeatedly ask the same question, even if we developers gave them a pretty darn much precise answer, this is annoying. Those dumb users should really learn to use their brainz</developers hat on>

But, taking a step back, it simple means that the answer by the developer didn't answer the user's question.
And this indeed seems to be the point here.

  • people see these Bitfinex stats
  • people get teased by the numbers
  • people don't know if a Greed Risk Score of 492 is supposed to mean much greed or not much greed
  • people can't figure out what "greed" exactly means in this context
  • "love and are able to make profit" these are just weasel words and don't answer any of the points above

Thus I'd like to propose to you guys the following improvement:
Why can't you just add an indicative scale of ranges right at the Bitfinex stats page. Best put this immediately below the given numbers.

For example
0-100 : almost no taking of gains
100-400 : average profit taking
400-800 : heavy gain taking
>800 : rare extreme situation




Title: Re: BitFinex give you more speculation tools: BSI, BII, BRS, BGS
Post by: myself on April 25, 2013, 03:58:22 PM
@Myself:
do you notice the people are asking the same question over and over again?
i cant keep track of all the question ppl make here on bitcointalk i put most of things get to me on the wiki, also the wiki have 0 discussion is hard to know what users wants also I cant read ppl minds to know what they want