Bitcoin Forum

I would be greatly thankful if one or more of the really smart people who post huge amounts of useful information here would take the time to explain something to me. Why is the Satoshi Dice asset on Bitfunder.com trading at a significantly lower rate than the SDice shares on Mpex, or similar pass throughs?

S. Dice on Mpex is trading around 0.0047 - 0.0048 BTC. Havelock Investments released what appears to me to be a nearly identical S.Dice pass through (backed up 1 to 1 with shares on Mpex, 95% dividend payout)... those shares sold at 0.0048 seemingly as fast as they could issue them, and are still trading at that rate. Yet the SDice asset on Bitfunder has been selling for around 0.0041 - 0.0044 per share.

If anyone has any incite into this, please share it with me. I searched the forum and other places before posting this, but I couldn't anything that explained this price discrepancy.

Is there something wrong with the platform, or the issuer? Something else I'm missing that makes this asset less valuable than the others? Or is it currently just a real good deal, that I should keep buying until it climes to around 0.0047 - 0.0048?


Just to be clear, this is the fund I'm talking about: https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.SDICE


Thanks in advance to anyone who takes time in an attempt to enlighten me. 

The shares at Havelock are 0.48 each, representing 100 shares bunch. They are not 1-1.

As for BitFunder SDice, I assume people bought them in smaller quantities and the dividends were smaller so it's hard to feel the money and they wanted to move on. I believe MPex put in the steep fee for 30 BTC to deter such frivolous investors. As for Havelock, the investment platform is so much more pleasing to the eye, the trades are free, and the proprietor is provably legit that it's worth buying the bundled up shares for.

Right, they are packaged in 100 share groups for .48, what I meant was basically that they are backed up by an equal amount of shares on Mpex.



Okay interesting, so the suggestion is that Bitfunder is not as demonstrably legit as Havelock, and not as user friendly. Although, I could be wrong, but I think right now Bitfunder does substantially more volume than Havelock, so that would seem to indicate that some people are comfortable tradiong there.

There are a couple factors at work here:

1: You get less dividends from a pass-through than for the real thing. Since you only get 95% of the dividend (pass-through operator gets the other 5%), it makes sense that the price should average about 5% lower.

2: Bitfunder is relatively new, for people to buy shares they have to set up an account and fund it.

3: All the people who bought using GLBSE have been stuck with no way out for several months. If one bought shares before GLBSE disappeared, and wanted to sell for whatever reason, they were stuck. The passthrough recently opened up on Bitfunder, and so all those people itching to sell have built up a large sell pressure, pushing down the price. This factor will go away slowly as those people looking to exit sell their shares and the price will stabilize close to the MPEx price.

At the moment, I see BitFunder's at 600k shares while Havelock is at 3k shares, representing 300k shares at MPEX. Keep in mind that Havelock's IPO was just released about a week ago while BitFunder was there a lot longer. I think BitFunder was a carry over of [GLBSE] Pass through right when S.Dice shares were first being offered. Further, I think a lot of people haven't seen Havelock yet or discovered its trading platform.

Think #3 here is the big one.  Some of the owners of the shares on Bitfunder are funds that are closing down and have to sell their assets.  Others will be people who want to sell and only now have the chance.  Havelock doesn't have people who wanted to get out of owning the shares - so there's no supply to compete with that being issued by the asset owner.

And #1 is also a significant factor.  If you only get 95% of dividends and have no means of converting to the 'real' shares then it's hard to justify a price over 95% of the MPEx price (if some clear means of converting was provided then arguably price should be very near to 100% of MPEx - depending on what it cost to convert).

Thanks guys, that makes a lot of sense, I'll bet you're right on most counts there. It will be an interesting one to watch, that's for sure. Especially if S.Dice itself stays where it is, or goes up.

Thanks Ian. Based on my casual observation, it seems as though there are a lot more trades occurring on Bitfunder than BTC.CO at the moment. Am I wrong about that?

I guess it's because the asset claim page both for btct and bitfunder is on bitfunder. So everyone who wanted to liquidate quickly just stayed on bitfunder and drove the price down.

I think GSDPT has ~7k shares total on btct.co right now.


Yeah, there was some confusion as to how to claim shares on btct.co, where you had to go to bitfunder, claim the shares, then request they actually go to btct.co.  I think we'll probably see another GSDPT import here before too long.

A simple explanation could be that the BF PT is made out of people who bought at 32-34 entirely, whereas the HL PT is made out of people who bought at 37+ entirely. These significantly divergent populations would then unsurprisingly behave differently: the first are taking profits, the others are sitting on their purchase. Due to the cash flow differences this brings (because buyers are just as likely to flow into either PT "naturally" as sellers are likely to want to sell "naturally", leaving the effect described above unaccounted) the prices would diverge. It is, I guess, a sign of the inefficiency of the PT market that nobody is arbitraging this divergence into convergence, but then again this is a much more quaint sign than the fact that some of the original GLBSE PT shares sold for as high as 70 back in August.

When I looked at it, it was very clear to me. No confusion at all. I did not have to singup with bitfunder to be able to claim my shares on btct and had the option. i am told that there were almost or over 100 shareholders to track, and can understand why terra did not want to try to manually track everything with a high risks of errors. no one has complained about not getting their shares or divs due at either location. since my original plan was to claim on btct, i was glad that he went through the trouble to allow to use both than tell us where we have to go by his decision or by other shareholders votes. you state that there was confusion on how to claim where there was not. he posted on the forums, he sent emails, and bitfunder sent emails to claim explaining everything very clearly.



I was originally dead set against bitfunder, and planned to claim my shares at btct. the more I see look at each one, i see that btct is a bunch of drama.
all over the place people using it to post msgs against each other, vote each other. first I was checking the website alot, to see what was there. then as things grew, so did the drama, I got tired of trying to use the votes as a usefull reference. almost all traded assets have some kind of negative mark, mud slung in their face, and its like getting opinionated scammer votes to me.  at least on the forums before someone or something is branded ppl cant just throw numbers on their profile and leave them there for everyone to see regardless of what its for. i saw bakewell move from btct to bitfunder, and if it was for the votes as a reason, i can understand pushing to do it without shareholder concent. do i agree with his holdingshares thing no? but even he has picked up and walked away from the drama even if he had to take a rep. hit to do it and has not even fought with anyone over it to try to be very adult about it, he let people say what they wanted, and that was that. that was a big price to pay i think for doing it, but people did not dump his asset. i held off on claiming my shares of gsdpt until recently to see how things turned out, and honestly, the only thing I coudl say about bitfunder in the mean time is that while I was not happy to setup with weexchange at first, it's actually pretty nice and very happy with it. i had a simple question, nothing urgent and posted a support ticket on bitfunder and had a response pretty quickly. the irc was nice to be able to just join for a few minutes and talk to people about things. and during all the drama.. all I saw on bitfunder, was focused growth. not only was it adding features people had requested, but i noticed that they were also adding features that were being requested of btct as they were being requested, and even without the drama, never made a big thing about out. things like the the dividend reinvest, and listing if the assets can increase shares on their own, or move with or without votes. I finally made my decision. it was pretty clear. i have quite a few share of sdice via gsdpt, erik is a great guy and very respectable. I have no problems paying terra for all the time and effort he is putting in to make sure i got my shares and dividends that was not an expected party of his duties and now balancing books for two exchanges. he has a proven track record as being someone trustworthy. i would rather pay a little to know I am in good hands, then go with some unknown or pay a bunch of money to trade on a place that has a few stocks and possibly higher chance of insulting me then helping me if i say the worng thing. also I am a buyer. i dont generally sell unles its a great deal. with bitfunder, i have paid almost nothiing to buy thousands of shares to earn divs off of since i only have to pay if and when i sell. I love the price being lower on bitfunder, I have bought quite a few shares at excellent price, it just adds as another reason why i have enjoyed it since. and i can actually say that for once in a long time now i have enjoyed playing with btc and assets again. interactive graphs are fun to zoom in and get details, the data tables are nice and dont just cut off with limits or span the entire page with all of my history. why are the shares so cheap? it could be any number of the things listed above. terras cut, bitfunder ppl selling off,dont think so because its more buys than sells,so it is not ppl who do not like bitfunder. i dont care, its a good and more fair price to me. also the best thing is that if ihave enough shares and wanted to go direct to mpex i think terra would doa transfer for me at no cost. isnt that the point? buy low in bulk, sell high in bulk, win!

if you look at the trade history, it was almost all buys, not sells and at that time reasonable prices. no big liquidation evident. if they did, they did not change the price compared to the coinbr prices at the time.

Eh, I know there was confusion.  I had to deal with the confused users personally.  ;)

Your post is really hard to read, and not particularly on topic.  Happy to discuss in another thread if you'd like.

Cheers.

nice comback. :)

topic is why shares are so cheap.

a. people have said things like confusion over which to choose.

two buttons. btct and bitfunder. thats not very hard.
if they are that confused get off the internet.

confusion of why they have to go to one of the sites to pick the other? provided with the instructions. are you confused?

my reasoning that it is probably not confusion of site. in the end, what does that even have to do with the price??? off topic ?
i accidentally chose the wrong exchange! oh noes! i had better sell and sell CHEAP!... stop taking shots. you look like an ass.

b. people say there was a mass liquidation
coinbr charts compared to trade prices are within reason.

c. people have stated due to wanting to simply liquidate and choosing bitfunder over btct
either way, the shares would have just been liquidated on either exchange, and they would not have cared. dont you wish you had set it up? probably would not worried about confusion for bitfunder users.

d. my personal experience with the gsdpt shares, choosing an exchange, my trading, and the price it is effecting directly. and my opinion of why more people have chosen bitfunder of btct.

if you are unhappy that people are telling their opinions and experiences of your site outside of your thread where it is relevant and afraid other people will see it, then it is your problem. you do seem to however like take any shot you can get at others in their threads.

^^^ btw, that is still  ontopic, as an ongoing reasoning on why i chose my shares on bitfunder, and many others in regards to the confusion which is probably really just you confused why more people are not choosing btct. in fact, thats a response to you comment to the topic.

was this an easier read?

Definitely getting easier to read, thanks.

I don't have anything else to add.  Of course you're entitled to your opinion.

Cheers.

Too cheap? What if it's absurdly overpriced?
1) Can it be overpriced because this guy in a funny hat and a mask can close it down with a flip of switch when he gets his first phone call from a 3 letter agency and is asked to close down his illegal gambling site?
2) Can it be overpriced because it trades at 7+ PE? (over 7 times the annual earnings per share) and has no valuable assets (actually I have not seen the balance sheet. Have you?)
3) has no unique business model, that can not be copied with few programmers and mediocre web designer? (Why have I not copied this low-life business and launched my own gambling site? I consider gambling as a really disgusting business and I honestly do not give a flying fuck if you disagree. ;)
4) or is it because sdice can spin coin from IPO on sdice to make it look way better than it actually is? (This is a small price to pay if it helps to sell out it's final 6+ mil shares but becomes unnecessary when the IPO is sold out) <- pure speculation, do not get hysterical!
5) ...


PS! btcbids, your phobia of capital letters and "enter" key in not as cute as you think. Maybe you can skip the spacing between the words too, thiswillmakeyourpostsevenmore"fun"toread. LOL

lol, agreed on all of the above.
apparently its becoming quite common for asset issuers to use varying methods to pump their share prices far far beyond reasonable earnings. its all fine for now. until the day that something clicks somewhere, and the price drops like a rock leaving a lot of people with near worthless crap. well.. except the issuers hehe they make out like a bandit in the meantime. but thats okay, everyone accepts it, and just hopes they are not the ones left holding the bag at the end.

Concerning the total volume on BitFunder and btct: the passthrough has been trading on bitfunder a couple weeks longer on BitFunder, so naturally it would have a higher total volume.


1) is there any asset which cannot be shut down at the first call of a three letter agency?
2) What would you expect the PE to be for a stock of this type? 7+ seems reasonable to me.
3) SatoshiDice has been going for several months and making large amounts of money, where are all the copycats if it is so easy?
4) or maybe there are just many people that enjoy gambling, and this allows them to do that? Does anybody ever accuse the Lottery of playing their own game to increase the numbers?


Increasing the profits of the company resulted in an increase of the share price. That is not unnatural pumping of the share price, that is just how stocks work. The fact is SatoshiDice makes a steady income, and people are willing to invest to get a piece of that.

its a good deal keep buying, buy it all the way up to 0.0051, S.DICE is going up...  :)

No, actually, it used to be the case that asset issuers pumped their bullshit far beyond what was reasonable, back when all you muppets had GLBSE to dick around on, and Nefario was "someone with his level of trust in the community".

Since we've (MPEx, that is) killed off that stupid bullshit prices are actually being more or less reasonably set by the market, whatever that means in BTC. Huge effort is being put specifically into removing market inefficiencies and making prices reflective of underlying economic reality, the recent S.BBET IPO being an excellent case study for this.

Obviously you don't think so, but the reason you don't think so is that you are excluded from price formation. The reason you are excluded from price formation isn't something external to you however. It is purely internal, to wit, the fact that you are worthless as a human being, have no point in this world and your opinions do not matter. I hope you've enjoyed the 15 minutes while it lasted, because they ain't never coming back.

Now let me hear the whine chorus. Reality is so very very mean and unfair. When you're done with that take a week to stfu and read this daily (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=124441.0).

you are correct. I simply failed at expressing sarcasm. mebbe should have wrote 'i guess its okay *eyeroll*' also if you are being defensive of mpex and teeth at throat thinking i ment mpex assets, i was not referencing any mpex stocks. do you consider them pumped and fitting that description or just too used to defending them from other people? i imagine its prolly the latter.

offtopic - i am curious though how mpex has killed off the stupid bullshit prices of mining 'stocks' 'bonds' whatever you wanna callem when mpex primarily has its own asset, two gambling assets, and hosting company, and no miners? again, nothing aginst the type/quality/number of assets on mpex, just comparing types..  are you meaning overall btc price adjustments? i think the impressive pricing for stocks issued on mpex have done some pretty neat things esp. for each other, just not sure how it effects other types of 'assets' on other markets.  not trying to be rude, just want your thoughts on it in a conversely manner.

Regarding #3. There are multiple clones to satoshiDICE, and none of them comes close to an order of magnitude. #1 is a good point through.

It has to do with the direction of the exponential.  In the real world, when people buy stocks, they try to buy ones where the exponent is positive r = A*exp(x/t), like the red line.  But mining is intrinsically a negative exponent process r = A*exp((1-x)/t), like the blue line. So MPEX is winning because they carry red line companies, not blue line companies.

Also, no ponzi.

http://brainwindows.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/mpexschematic.jpg

definitely.


just curious how their red line effects the mining stocks being more or less reasonably set by the market and how they prevent/expose/cull ponzi's, etc. on other markets.

Well that is an interesting question.  I don't think most MPEX account holders would be investing substantially in GLBSE trash. 

Let me ask a related question though, is the limited number of quality red line companies coupled with increasing buyer demand causing excessive valuations in existing MPEX securities?  OR are they actually undervalued, as the demand curve appears to also be following the red line?

we should prolly move this to a side thread. i diverged way off topic with this. sorry.

For the sake of accuracy, I would argue that individuals should place more importance on solid EPS growth over revenue growth. There are many factors that can cause a company to have increased revenue while also having a negative effect on the company's bottom line. It may be better to change the chart to reflect that.

Of course, EPS growth is only one of a long list of factors that are important to consider when evaluating securities (if approaching from a fundamental perspective.) Unfortunately, with btc-based assets we don't have the luxury of complete detailed and accurate financial data.

The latter indeed.


It's a simple point of competition for finite resources. This is not quite as visible in fiat, because in fiat bs gov'ts can create and do create fake money to prop up wasteful/pointless paraeconomic ventures run by the "right people", which is just another way of saying "popular" (which is, of course, the wrong game to play if you aim for prosperity).

In BTC however, where resources are absolutely finite, there will only be so much BTC available for investment at any given time. This BTC will be allocated to the available investments somehow. Part of it will be allocated by idiots (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=106391.0), on paraeconomic criteria like "we don't like MPEx". Part of it will be allocated economically. As time goes on the share available to the idiots to allocate as they see fit dwindles, and the share available to the rational players increases. Since human behavior is reinforced by success and (usually, except in the case of a really limited pile of hardcore idiots) discouraged by failure, the flow is even faster as individual people realize they are being part of the idiot group and jump ship.

Soon enough the situation reaches equilibrium, which is pretty much where we're at. In short, the beauty of economy is that it works.

None of this is to mean MPEx is perfect, by any means. That's not the point at all. It just means MPEx is the standard, and because stock exchanges are fundamentally a convergent, naturally standardizing market it also means the accretion trend will continue, exactly in the same way and fundamentally for the same reasons Bitcoin grows against fiat currencies.

It's by now impractical for any serious company contemplating being listed in BTC to forego the significant capital available on MPEx in order to favor a different venue (in fact, the cost of doing so can be calculated on the basis of the volume difference, and is in any case significant) for a variety of reasons, and certainly such an attempt would imply the modification of said company to include "being an exchange", which requires rare and valuable skills (programming notably NOT being one of them) and other human capital. Such an effort necessarily spells a movement away from said corp's core mission, whatever it may be (*).

A willingness to move away from the core mission, a cavalier attitude towards incurring costs and foregoing benefits all work together to paint a very unflattering picture in the eye of the discerning investor (If these people have any confidence in their business, why are they working on moving away from it to do something else? If they have the capital to pursue reinventing the wheel, why do they need my investment? If they're not interested in cashing in now why should I expect they ever will get my shares dividends?) and rapidly the convergence effects become very strong indeed.

* To quote Buffet,

PS. For a doodle, Bugpowder's graph is remarkably accurate. The period is indeed ~5 months, for instance.

So what you're saying is that no one should list on the NYSE because the NASQAQ has more volume?  I call BS.

Different exchanges have different benefits, trade methods, tools for the issuers, end user accessibility, security features, and other pros and cons.  Which exchange is best is a matter of best fit, not a matter of volume.  Otherwise there would only ever be one exchange in any given currency.

Different exchanges have different requirements- they also operate in different fashions. It is not always which one is a matter of best fit, but rather which one a stock can list to. Stocks also switch exchanges based on a variety of reasons- such as market cap and the extent of their filings.

Exchanges exist to help provide liquidity. Saying that it is not a matter of volume is rubbish.

The fact that you have to go through making accounts for 2 sites in order to buy might have something to do with it.

This fkn gypsy joker and his sock puppet are gone completely bonkers...

I started to laugh so hard at  "MPEx is the standard" that I had a tear in me eyes. For fuck sake, mircea popescu, you are seriously delusional and this raving sock puppet of your is obviously beyond repair. I can see why some people actually buy your bull shit - they have <0 experience from the real world and you can confuse them easily. This only shows what a scumbags you 2 really are.  

Reality is, your "one stock wonder bazaar" is no better than any other exchange LTC/BTC world has up an running and you 2 slimy shit birds like to take credit for something that you nor that sorry ass mpex of yours, had nothing to do with. Fkn sociopaths!
One more thing, don't forget to STFU now!
LOL

How's the missus?