Bitcoin Forum

Rules:

UPDATE:  Contest ends May 31st

To win, post your guess for the peak USD/BTC price.
To win, post your guess before the peak USD/BTC price occurs.
Only a user with 100+ posts can win.
Only the first guess for a user can win.

Winner, with price guess closest to price peak, will receive a 1 BTC prize.

I will use the USD/BTC MTGOX price.
I will determine if you posted before the peak price.
I will determined what is a peak.  I consider these peaks:

http://img5.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/17159/1715922411bc58a95e079fbde38a7b501542c4a7.png


When you guess:
Please, I would appreciate any reasoning or let me know if it is a complete guess.  Although, I will not require this in the first experiment to reduce the amount of fake reasoning/guesses given.


Goal:  I hope to run multiple experiments to see if any user(s) can consistently call the peak with some accuracy.  Let me know if I should change any rules for future experiments to better achieve this goal.

Please make it clear that you are guessing by posting like this at the beginning of your post:

GUESS: $15

if your definition of a peak is a spike followed by a longer period of time (>1 month) with lower prices, my guess is:

GUESS: $17,10

of course i don't expect to hit that price in the next few days, but since there is no timeframe given, thats my guess

15.45

You need a time frame otherwise a 1 penny move could be a peak. When does the contest expire?

14.64

This will expire May 31st.  If that changes anyone's guess, feel free to edit to change it.  Please edit within the next three days. 

I will be recording guesses so people don't keep editing in an attempt to win.

17.35

22.35

GUESS: $30

A repeat of June 2011 will occur with the repeated crash after a one day spike.

$23.50

Guess: $107.66

I advise quoting posts, it's irrevocable!

$14.3499

$15.20

$15.30

$29.32

26.53 or I'm a monkey's uncle.  8)

108

Random guess: $18.88

My random guess: 7.20 x 2 = 14.40  :)

http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/10/trendlines.png

i have seen it in a dream (I am not joking!)

$72

random guess: 16,16$  ;D

34.35  (hoping to hit it right on so epbaha will realize that you don't have to be a big poster to know your bitcoin stuff.)

GUESS: $16.78

51

I'm taking a bit of a stab here.  I recon once ASICs rock up and miners sell off their old rigs, they'll be flush with some cash.  Some (not all) won't need to sell any BTC for a while causing a small shortage, which in turn increases demand.

So what I'm actually saying here is...

GUESS : USD $17.55

20

48.3

$21.25 I'm just predicting the fairly steady increase since the 5 dollar post Pirate ceiling to continue.

Whatever the high was/is between the 1st of the year and now, that's the peak.  $14.3x, I don't care to look up exactly what it is.  Let's just say $14.40.

Taken.

Do you ever get tired of being wrong? :D

$18.00

$18.08, based on nothing more than the torrent of emotion brought about by painful sobriety.

Shouldn't there be a "betting end date"?

Anyways, probably too bullish, but I am going for 21.5$  :)

14.31

GUESS: $68.11

No hundred posts, but been here a little while.

$32

24.9USD

25.74 USD

I'll guess on 29.5

GUESS: $16,66

a w następnym konkursie obstawie 66,6(6)
[next competition peek i'll bet 66,6(6)]

18.1

Ok, whatever the 2012 high was.  It's not going higher than that this year.  That's my guess.

Guess: $15.12

51.1

16

19.82

Hehe it's funny to watch those who's bets are already passed :D

I'm guessing 26.34

However for 2013 I predict an all-time high..

Hopefully I will have 100 posts before May :b

:(

damn it  :o

It was so last year, man. ;)

$47.02

$25

$120

Darn it, now I don't have an infinite range where I win.

45

48.4

$20.08

I know i'm not eligible but I thought i'd throw in :)

48$

Was that the peak, $19.18999?

Or do we have to wait until May and see if there's a higher peak?

https://i.imgur.com/wfuI72k.png

So who's the grand winner?

dooglus

I think we're unlikely to see the price go higher than that before May.

True, but 4 months is an eternity with Bitcoin

Oh, shut up Prouhon.  You're getting repetitive and boring.

Nailed it!  ;)

https://i.imgur.com/wZatPQK.png

Ok, Bitcoin Price, rah, rah, rah, UP, UP, UP!

55.5

I dunno, the price was so briefly above 19 and recovered so rapidly you can't see it on the 30-day chart.   Contrast that to the pirate fiasco which caused a much stronger fall and kept the price in the doldrums for months.  Its up to the OP of course but if I was running this little contest I would not call what happened last week a peak.

The post you replied to had a photo of today's mini-peak which was at exactly $18.88, the price I guessed at.  I was joking.

But last week's $19 peak should be counted as 'the peak' for the purposes of this game if the price doesn't go back up above it, don't you think?

He wasn't very clear - did he mean the "first peak" or the "highest peak" or the "peakiest peak"?

Thanks, that's better :P.

My bet is for 20.13

I have my reasons.

GUESS: $22.555

Bit optimistic, I know, but given few months, shit happens, I mean fluctuation

23.52$

$73.73 - Wild speculation.  I am anticipating a rather sharp correction in the short term but am fairly bullish (less so than my guess) in the longer term

127.7952 USD per BTC will be the next peak. I made some calculation

oops you're right!  Replied to wrong message.  Sorry did not know you were joking.  But I was just trying to point out that although the OP clearly does not want to define what a peak is clearly, we can be pretty sure that it won't count if it doesn't even show up on a graph of the same timescale as his examples.

Yeah, you're right.  Now that last week's peak has been passed, and so quickly, I'm sure it won't count for this competition.

1.111111

OVER 9000~!

GUESS: $48.42

The cents are just for fun (42 is the answer!) but I tool the highest price ever (around $32) added 50%, and there you have it. I expect price to drop in about two months when we get significant ASICs online and they start cashing out regularly on mined coins.

GUESS: $284.25

Edit $284,25 => $284.25

$73 - half guess, half finger in the air looking all scientific! :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwH__x6jV6A

89

345$ Is what I believe the next spike will be.

495

420

GUESS: $88

for fun - it will be april 17th give or take a day, by the end of May we'll be consolidating in the 60-70 range!

My guess: $350 high, some time in May.

~$300 consolidation around the end of May, redoubling for more gains.

The real "peak" (as opposed to a foothill) will be some time later... 2015-18

75

77

99.99

I called it at 75

Mt gox = 74.90000

can I haz my BTC now pls

16hijiSkt9NCpoUWCyiM57Y1VSWWpHcaRB

$118

Seriously  I called the top with at 75, and it was 74.90


time for BTC

Seriously, "Contest ends May 31st"

 ::)

also, this contest is lame:

A. Anyone can just edit their post.
B. There is no submission time limit prior to the contest ending.

Lol, after the peak 1btc will be worth a lot less.

GUESS:  $148

Guessing: $92, because strong buying pressure at the moment.

Guessing: $87.34

$340.05912

Down now bitcoin, down.

GUESS: $295

if correct, you can send my winnings to bitcoin foundation :)

999.98

No one in January was right, I repeat, NO ONE

78 USD

477.76

188.97

GUESS: 495.01

GUESS: $210

Guess 1995.9

10.000 $$$$

0.000000000000

$266  :D

I guess I win. Lolz

266.00000 :P

You should have edited your original post.
A guess @ $23.5 has tarnished your reputation as a perma bull.

lol how? Price guess was higher than it was when I made the guess. So how does that invalidate my perma bullishness?

Failed logic you are using? :P

What would have tarnished my rep is my changing my post of my original guess. But you obviously overlooked that.

Guess : 265

I guess for everyone posting $266, the peak had to be called before it arrived? 

My only chance here is if we have a major run over $266 now in the next couple of weeks.

What the heck, I will go for $298. ;)

If it gets to that price I will be happy for more than the 1 BTC prize!  ;D

$170 is one key level, but we've already scraped it. $200 will likely be the next such value.

So probably just below $200. My guess is $197.

Good response, my failed logic aside, my point being even a permabull, was low balling the Bitcoin high (to the low $20's) in the stated time frame.  As a fan of your persistent bullishness, I found the irony amusing, and thought I should share it.  

for fun,
the OP in another thread:

I predict the next high will be $350 because it is the lowest logarithmic difference historically.

And the price on april 17th...

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zig2-hourzczsg2013-04-17zeg2013-04-17ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

now if you just ignore the spike to 266 10 days earlier, this is the best prediction i ever made ;)

Interesting that you decide users need 100+ posts to be worthy of your competition, when you don't even have this yourself.  ::)