Bitcoin Forum

http://i45.tinypic.com/35jb13d.png

Thanks everyone

the bigger picture

Neither,

It's a chart of the price in the past.  Bullish or bearish is a statement about the future.

It's definitely got a bullish price action going on. But every uptrend ends or retraces and in the world of bitcoin it can retrace violently, especially when price rises too fast without much explanation. I think these price levels will be justified eventually, but right now price just seems to flying too high too fast for my taste. Final opinion, bullish bubble.

Its call a breakout ;D

It's called, soon there's going to be a race to the door.

Sounds like that stupid song.
...but you just know that the next step is going to be a breakdown... as all the idiots buying at these prices get shafted.

It's quite likely that the opposite is the case. If 17 is broken within a reasonable timeframe it should run away very quickly.
There might be a red candle tomorrow but guess what happens then? Like it or not the game is on.

There are still some reservations and doubts in this forum. My guess is there is still a lot of room to go on the upside. Once everybody starts cheering everyone else to buy, then that will be the end of this bull run for me.

I'm thinking that this sort of upswing generally comes with a swift crash... once I see that, I'm in and taking profit on the recovery. 

Youve been conditioned to think that. Was it on purpose?

Its how I've made a large percentage of my profit.  ;)

Wow...
right now on bitfinex, people are accepting loan offers (USD for leveraged long) at 100% p.a.

What this does mean?

APY's on USD have been high for some time now. Maybe not 100% consistently, but I've lent a few 50+% credits out, and always above 35%. Better than any bank!


It means that people are willing to borrow USD to go long, no matter the interest rate.

Bitfinex offers Contract-for-Difference, somewhat similar to Bitcoinica.

But, in Bitfinex, the credit for the leverage draws from users, who can place offers for loans. In the last two days, typical USD loan apy went up from 20% to over 100%

So basically people are dying just to get hold of some credit for leveraged longs.


PS: you should note that Bitfinex is relatively new and the overall volumes aren't high.

 :D ;) ;D :)

aaaaaaaannnnnnddddd there it is.


Im in.

I think this wasnt the dump yet. We are just back to where we were at the time of this thread.

I don't really care about what the USD/BTC price is,  I care about the amount of movement in the price...with an overly swift price raise (which will be followed by correction), I get in as close to the bottom of the correction as possible and then take profit on the bounce.


wash. rinse. repeat.




Will there be another dump? Probably. I should be back in USD by that point though (ready to do it again)....if I'm not, I have clear exit points to minimize any loss of profit.

If thats all there was to the correction this is very bullish imo

It could be, I dont know. I really only look at price in the very short term.

If I had to guess though, I'd say we will see another major crash within the year (down to singles). 

Is this a straight up guess, just a feeling in your gut, or is there a reasoning behind the guess? I'm quite curious why you would think we will see singles again. My guess is we fall back to $12 - 14 before continuing a healthy slow and steady growth.

Just a guess, really. I think the price was stagnant for so long around $5 because it was a useful exchange rate.  I also think that the raise into double digits was the defining point of a new speculative bubble.


Again, this is just a personal opinion, and I am far from being an expert.

I see some probability for that scenario, but it depends on fundamentals.
Right now we had some influx of new people learing about bitcoin. If the usefulness of the whole ecosystem can keep pace with that -- i.e. more real world things you can do and buy with bitcoin beyond investment and speculation -- then agreed. Then the rising demand and the limited supply might drive up the rates slowly and continuous.

OTOH, if the new people are disapointed after some time, and there is the next shiny "must have" gadget, then we might see a longer stagnation or even slow downard trend. The hard core bitcoin believers will stay on board of course, and enjoy buying cheap coins.  ;)

Isn't it always just a personal opinion? Anyone who can accurately and consistently predict any market is either astronomically lucky or a next level genius with plenty of free time.


Good points. Although, I don't think anything shinier will replace bitcoin unless the fundamentals of processors significantly change to the point of being able to easily break bitcoin's cryptography, making a newly redesigned crypto-currency necessary. And in that worst case scenario, it would be a violent ride down. Unless somehow we could redesign bitcoin's cryptography before such processors were built.