Just a guess, really. I think the price was stagnant for so long around $5 because it was a useful exchange rate. I also think that the raise into double digits was the defining point of a new speculative bubble.
Again, this is just a personal opinion, and I am far from being an expert.
Isn't it always just a personal opinion? Anyone who can accurately and consistently predict any market is either astronomically lucky or a next level genius with plenty of free time.
I see some probability for that scenario, but it depends on fundamentals.
Right now we had some influx of new people learing about bitcoin. If the usefulness of the whole ecosystem can keep pace with that -- i.e. more real world things you can do and buy with bitcoin beyond investment and speculation -- then agreed. Then the rising demand and the limited supply might drive up the rates slowly and continuous.
OTOH, if the new people are disapointed after some time, and there is the next shiny "must have" gadget, then we might see a longer stagnation or even slow downard trend. The hard core bitcoin believers will stay on board of course, and enjoy buying cheap coins.
Good points. Although, I don't think anything shinier will replace bitcoin unless the fundamentals of processors significantly change to the point of being able to easily break bitcoin's cryptography, making a newly redesigned crypto-currency necessary. And in that worst case scenario, it would be a violent ride down. Unless somehow we could redesign bitcoin's cryptography before such processors were built.
