Bitcoin Forum

Ok, so we re less then 3 months away from halving. It s going to be a very interesting period for crypto and what effects is it going to produce, it s still big time unclear.

Here are potential options:

1. nothing changes
2. the price doubles of more, current miners remain profitable and new generation of miners enters the game, the difficulty keeps rising
3. the price does not change, 90% of current miners become unprofitable, the difficulty drops big time, new generation of miners fills the gap.
4. the price drops due to false expectations, crypto slows down and eventually loses lots of people. Crypto dies.

What would you say we should expect?

everything is changing with bitcoin, you can't expect the price to stay at this level. we are not yet at a stable price stage.


probably this happens. there is a lot of speculation going on about halving and nobody can tell which one will come to pass.
but I guess a price rise (probably another rally) is most possible.


the price part might happen because of the issues we are facing these days but I doubt that miners quit if the price stays at this level.


this is never going to happen, the market is bigger than that to die this easily. besides there are a lot of big whales invested thousands of dollars in bitcoin who will never let that happen. and not to mention the huge use base.

My expectation for the price is to remain flat (+- 10%).
We have seen a rapid price increase in the last few months of 2015, and the impact of the block reward halving seems to have been factored in.

4 is never going to happen, for this I am pretty convinced at 101%. All other 3 options are highly possible but we can only speculate about them now. Personally I think the price of Bitcoin will go up but not as much as expected, about 10-20% and not more.

2. the price doubles of more, current miners remain profitable and new generation of miners enters the game, the difficulty keeps rising


i think the price will be double, we can reach $1000 again

I think the third possibility is more realistic , the fourth and first one can't happen in my opinion, because the most predictions about the next halving tell us that the Bitcoin price will increase may be not for the double but will get highest level likely

The number 1 and number 2 are highly unlikely to happen. Rather i think the option no 4 "the price drops due to false expectations, crypto slows down and eventually loses lots of people. Crypto dies. " is never going to happen.
Price can rise enormously or maybe little bit . Its depends on the trend which will be there for next 3 months.

This is what eberyone expects including myself. I wish if it really happens.
but if this does not happen, it will disappoint to most of people who are currently saving it to earn big profits.

Why does everybody focus on price. imho the biggest change will be the centralisation of mining. Some people seem to think that this is the reason for the aggressive blocksize doubling action as well.

I mention price growth cause of the fact daily BTC supply will be cut in half. Current supply is covered with current demand and the price s more less stable, in equilibrium. What happens if u would cut daily supply in half tomorrow? The price should go up. Economics 101.

If Bitcoin is indeed in the same bracket as an Economic 101, then the pricing would traditionally reflect a ~6 month forward price level. So maybe its already accounted for and priced in.
But hey.....Crypto!  :-\

i am guessing the price is going to increase but it might not be increases as double the price now. but the increase part is very possible, which will come down if it is a swift rise and will stay if it is the normal way as it was through last year.

Well, Litecoin, which s much smaller coin compared to BTC, doubled in price after halving. The entire price jump started just before the halving, about 2 weeks before that. So, having that in mind, I expect quite hot summer. It might even go above 1K but I think it ll settle somewhere between 600-800$. Current price s simply unsustainable.

4. Although crypto nor bitcoin will completely die anytime soon. The whole halving is so extremely overhyped we can expect at least a 30-40% drop in the days following the halving.

Several governments and banks are picking up on blockchain technology. Smart people invest in those technologies because they will be the only ones that survive and be legal in the future.

I totally agree: cut supply and even if demand stays flat, you have a price rise. There are some other players tho, that would push price down: mining difficulty, unprofitability of old hardware etc. So yes, price up but not that much as expected or wished: i say 500-800 is a good start. Another jump will come on the scene when all 14-16 nm chips will pop up.

i believe the price will show an increase, but it will not double from the current price level. if it does double, then it's great of course, but i don't think it will. i think a price of $500-$600 will be a realistic prediction.

I speculate a slight increase,nothing too major,like to the 500$-550$ range.

Its really going to be just 500+ and nothing more, a lot of people will really be disappointed as they see that the price will reach 800 or so.

this must lead to an increase int he long term, since more interest from regulated institution mean that more average joe will be willing to invest in bitcoin

the value will increase for the halving, maybe not double or crazy value like 10k, but it will increase

and not to mention all those government and bank related organizations that are using blockchain technology will only create a centralized altcoin which nobody will ever be interested in and will die before they begin.

and each average joe will use cash and if they are interested in blockchain technology they will use bitcoin and not their centralized altcoin.

I am sure that bitcoin won't die, and i am relly sure that  pruce won't be same, so answer is that price will rise, i mean people buy bitcoins now, so price  rises even now, i don't think that price could be same after halving

Compared to the time 2 years ago, the price is less then 1/2 and it hasn't risen over 500$ in a long time. So I m not convinced in anything anymore.

i have always said that halving is more of a hype that is creating an expectation in everybody for a price rise and another possible bubble.
so in other words this Hype can eventually lead to a big rise if there is a small change (small rise) like a nudge that can initiate things.

Good options you mentioned there but the most realistic ones are number 2 and 3 only, with number 2 needing a bit of modification since I would think just because the halving, brings less rewards upon each found block, it should be expected that BTCitcoin value will double as well, but sure enough there will be an up trend afterwards.

Halving has given a good increase in price in the past, so this time too users expecting the same increase. But none know what's gonna happen by the coming days.

well i am really sure that price will change, it will fall down or will rise but it will change for sure

and i think that price will rise at first, to 600$ and then worst part will come, every person that boguht bitcoins for halving will sell them to get profit, so i am afraid that price will fall down instantly

I dont even think that it will change that much, you even can see that the value now is not even rising so that will be also not good for the halving.
Bitcoin is a currency and that is impossible to predict, but the most of us have the feeling that it wont rise that much.

i am choosing a modified version of #2
the price is going to rise up so high and miners will take a good profit but the price will slowly come down after that stabalizing on $550 which is still profitable but makes it tough for any new miner to start mining.

It will be 1 or 2 I think.
I'm hoping for 2 as most of us here I guess. An increase of 2x wold be awesome, especially if that would be sustainable and not just a peak followed by correction. However I'm not sure about how much efficiency in mining can be increased as the miners already use 16nm chips which seems to be the edge of technology at the moment.

Because so many people think the price will go up it will probably not happen - similar to the stock market ...
But with some additional good news like solving the the core/classic disput it could be a golden sommer  - I really hope so  ;D

Whatever people expect or think here, the price goes up or down in the favor of the whales. We as normal traders can benefit from this manipulation if you know how to read the market.

I don't think the drama between Core and the other alternatives will never end. The storm will calm down once larger blocks are implemented, but after let's say 5 or 6 months this whole thing come to life again. Then shills and trolls will support for example Bitcoin Millennium. That's why it is very important to have the majority of the pools and services, exchanges, etc on the side of Core.

The price will definitely has to go up or the miners will lose interest in bitcoin.  I think this will be the trend after halving: Miners reward cut into half, difficulty rise, price will go up as well. If this does not happen, then were doom.

2 years ago was right after the gox price manipulation. You can not see this artificial created run as real growth.
It was obvious that after that a very long correction would happen.And it took us around 22 months to rehabilitate.
During that time the fundamentals have become better and better.
And this year we will see even more growth and improvements regarding the network and value.

He is right. That manipulation hurt bitcoin a lot. Without the trust of this community, bitcoin could have died that day. But this halving can bring some good effects to bitcoin hopefully. We might not reach a new ATH right away but the price will definitely go up. And hopefully steady increase in few years to come.

And this time, whales cannot easily manipulate bitcoin market unlike before. Bitcoin users are diversified right now. Whales still own a large part of bitcoin out there but their move is counter acted by individual users though own small bitcoins but very large community. Put together, they can match the movement of whales.

There are a lot of people that is hoping that the value will be more worth worth after the halving but I think on this time that the value will not even be that high in the future after the halving.
And that is because the value isnt rising now and it keeps for a long time stable and that is quite bad.

I thought the halving was in July...? 

Don't think we're going to see it double.   Not that I wouldn't be happy with it, but it seems extremely unlikely to me that the halving isn't priced in.

There is nothing bad regarding the growth of bitcoin. Only the hope of the users will profit you with a good rise in price once the halving gets over.

I'm also thinking this the bitcoin has a good future a head with the positive mind of people plus the halving will also help the bitcoin to go to a higher amount this year.
I think there is a very good chance this is gonna happen, at the end of this year we most likely can sell out bitcoins with some nice profits if everything goes as planned.

Well manipulation is always occuring everyday like it or not or planned out.

Whales or other people with large holdings.. but in general as long bitcoin has a price people will be here regardless of trust or not since there profit to be made.

2nd possibility seems the more likely, but yet I feel that a high raise needs a lot of new money coming into bitcoin, and I do not see how exactly this is going to happen.

im pretty confident about the price rise and i think that we will not see the price doubling but we will see it going three times bigger than it is right now as it has a lot of potential to grow at the moment

hopefully these increases will make us big money, such effects will surely allow for such thing to happen the only question is when the price will start growing at a very rapid pace

The halving will reduce the fresh supply of the new bitcoin. If demand is the same, the price will rise a lot.

That could be right. If the price has to rise, then more new money will come into the system to push up the price of the old coins.

The halving will reduce the supply of new bitcoins, that is true, from 3600 to 1800 new bitcoins a day. Even at 3600 new bitcoins a day, it's a miniscule amount of bitcoins to affect the market where hundreds of thousands of coins are traded every day. No one's going to notice the reduction of 1800 new bitcoins coming into the market every day.

Additionally, only about 50% of the newly mined bitcoins were sold on the market, the miners kept the rest in their wallets hoping for a price rise.

The miners will notice! Their income will drop in half. A lot of marginal miners will turn off their rigs. Hashrate could drop a bit.

Right question is what will happen when hashpower drops? Will it price follow or not?
But demand is still is very high. Mining price is already regulated with jump of price from 200 to 400$ so i think we don't need to worry.

Three times?! I've talked about some being optimistic about the price doubling due to the halving, but you think that it'll jump to more than $1300 per bitcoin?! What in the world would cause that giant bubble? When the halving comes, the unprofitable miners will drop out. That is going to happen. The difficulty will lower to the point where the medium-scale miners can still somewhat mine profitably, but it'll take a huge investment for new miners to come back in. The price will rise, I am sure of that, but it will not double. That is unlikely to happen.

Still have $117 million USD in Bitcoin to be created before the July halving.  :-\

Despite the potential daily selling pressure of $1.6 million USD in Bitcoin being created, the price is able to maintain itself in the mid 400's.  8)

Yes, we were a bit overextended by the steep April climb from $420's to $470's but using math, the price should be well above $500 by June.  ;D

July, it'll be anybody's guess where the price will be.

If the same amount of fiat flow into Bitcoin after halving, the price could be around $600 and rise slowly.

I would merge 3 and 4 into:

5. Biggest miners will push the price down to hedge the lower profit from mining until the difficulty adjusts (drops big).

The bitcoin price might rise very fast. It depends on the mass adoption and also on the action of big whales.

If the block size does not increase, the miners will have less income, they will quit mining, it will reduce the price.

if halving occurs most likely it will make bitcoin prices to be higher, although I often hear and see the news in several forums, and I concluded that it might happen

I think the price of bitcoin will go to $500 before the halving. Then it will rise fast due to halving.

That has already happened. The bitcoin is is over $500 in many exchanges. That is a good prediction.

The price is trading around $540 in some exchanges. It might stay at this level for some time to stabilize.

It depends if you want to invest into bitcoin on a long term or short term. For short term I wouldn't recommend it since it will take awhile before you start making profits but for the long term, I suggest you go for it. I wouldn't wait too long either to buy in if I was you.

i think its safe to say both short and long term investments could be profitable right now

That is right. If you hold the bitcoin short term, say, 12 months, the price will be higher than the $600 range.

The halving is an unpredictable event.
Although many expect the price to rise, people could be in for a surprise after July 11.  :)

Let me make a comparison since I have a degree in economics and am working in an economic environment(although not related to bitcoin)

For example if you have been attentional to the currency exchange section not here in the forum but in the world, like USD/EUR GBP/EUR GBP/USD etc you would notice a trend, the trend is even when we know the price will go up of a pair, their central authority like Federal Reserve does not let the dollar go up indefinitely because it can burn many investors who will say , oh I am not doing it anymore, so they leave a space even for those who have lost big and they try to go for the intended rise. US payroll data was the worst in more than 5 years so the USD got down, and many people will buy it and there is chance for the investors I described above so they don't quit.

Now back to bitcoin, I did the analyze above only to tell to people price of something whatever it is , cannot go always up or always down, there will always be some intervals when going up and also when going down. So don't get all the hopes in price going only up is what I want to say, but as we are in speculation thread, anything can happen with bitcoin price after the halving.

The biggest short term effect will be the HYPE TRAIN. It will be before the halvening and it will be big. There will be a bubble and I will have to keep repeating this on and on because everyone is still talking about the halvening technicals. THIS IS NOT ABOUT TECHNICALS, THIS IS THE HYPE. THE HYPE.

SHUT UP!

Yes ,it depends on the way of thinking of an investors but as you've said it is both good for now..but in the end of the halving the effect of it will have a big start this will a big news for the new investors.

My answer would be "something between 1 and 3".

I expect that after the halving we'll see a correction. It can occur 1 day after, 1 day before, or even some weeks later.

Why? There are two possible effects. One is that most probably there will be some profit taking, because I'm not the only one that has this theory. That can even release a little panic. I don't think of a 50% drop but 20% are possible.

The second one can be that miners in the first month (July), until diff finds a new balance value, would be forced to sell all of their bitcoins to pay their bills. So there could be - paradoxically - a supply increase for a short time. I'm not sure if my thoughts here are correct, but I see it as a possibility.

But long-term I see Bitcoin in good shape, so after some turbulences I expect a rising price again.

Some months ago when I looked at certain sites that give you an indication of when the block halving will start, it was showing the the halving would start somewhere around the end of Juli. Now it's 11 Juli which is 2 weeks shorter than it used to show. I personally am prepared for anything. If the price goes up a lot it will be good for me, but if the price start to tank heavily it will also be good for me. Either way, I'll make a good amount of money. :)

I thnk halving will effect live earner. anyone who is doing jobs and work and getting paid in bitcoin. the halving will definitely make their payment reduced, and may they reduced to half..
although the payment will still be equal to same according to USD, but it still effect and when the price will reduce again, the bitcoin earner will realize their losts.

the last time we had a halving, the price went up by 100 times over the course of 11 months.

the first peak was about 4 or 5 months after the halving

the second peak about 11 months after the halving (about half a year after the first peak).

After that we entered the longest bear market bitcoin has ever seen.

first one,  i don't think that nothing will change as price still will rise or will fall because of panic and amount of people that buys bitcoins, so price will have either to fall down or rise up

and i don't think that other 3 are possible, i am positive and i think that price of bitcoin will rise by 25% atleast after halving and bitcoin won't die, miners won't leave their job too

effects will be felt when halving happens is the price increase bitcoin. I believe some people will be more brave save bitcoin. due to limited supply bitcoin bitcoin makes slightly reduced.

The price could rise to $600 during the halving time. Then if there is other good news, the price could spike.

It is hard to predict what the halving will bring to us but it wont change that much I think and that is because the value of Bitcoin will not rise that high.
But it is now already rising slowly so that is nice, but you never know what will happen in the future with the value.

bitcoin certainly has the potential to grow that much and reach all those numbers which may sound stupid right now but it can happen anyways. back in 2010-2011 nobody even though that bitcoin price can reach $1200 and you can actually find their topics here too but you can see how history has proven them wrong.

I think the price could be higher than $700 in August. The block size could be increase soon after halving.

Yes. I think the next catalyst for the price rise will be the block size increase. It can make transactions more smooth.

After the increase, some big shops such as Ebay , Amazon can accept the bitcoin and users can have good experience.