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Other => Beginners & Help => Topic started by: acayne on February 20, 2013, 12:32:16 PM



Title: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: acayne on February 20, 2013, 12:32:16 PM
Hi

I'm curious as to what people think could really stop the whole bitcoin-"currency" now (from growing in a curreny with a market-capitalization > 30 billion USD. ATM it is at 300 million.)

-Dotcom's "mega" will support BTC
-Reddit.com will support it(or already does?)
-we've got "pure bitcoin-based" multi-million dollar businesses (silkroad, satoshiDICE, mtGox,...)

What can stop Bitcoin now?


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Meizirkki on February 20, 2013, 12:43:48 PM
Blockchain becoming too large for normal computer to calculate?


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Akka on February 20, 2013, 12:50:57 PM
A large dump from a big holder is all that it takes.  ;D

I admit it looks good for BTC right now, but don't forget Bitcoin is the first of this kind and still experimental. There might be problems occurring that we can't even think about jet.

Also, 30 B, do you really believe this? ~3000 USD / BTC. Bitcoin have to be a lot more useful to be worth that much.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: acayne on February 20, 2013, 12:55:48 PM
Blockchain becoming too large for normal computer to calculate?

I don't think that will be such a big threat. Pure clients don't need the whole blockchain anyway and pruning the blockchain doesn't sound too complex as well. Haven't thought about it that much though, please correct me if I'm wrong.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: megaman11011 on February 20, 2013, 01:01:31 PM
Hmmm.... Galactus stopping by for dinner would kill  it pretty quick. Aside from that I can't  think of much .


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Luno on February 20, 2013, 01:02:31 PM
What we really need now is smooth exchanges. The latest days stories of slow processing for people trying to buy a Bitcoin can bring this crashing down.

Further It hampers price discovery, so please exchanges get your act together as you are playing with fire here.

If they are afraid of loss due to exchangerate fluctuations, They don't have the cash to run such a business, or they should implement some automation so that anyone buying a Bitcoin with credit card make their business buy one on Gox the same second. Their only risk would be a fraudalent purchase not a 5% increase on all Bitcoins.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Stephen Gornick on February 20, 2013, 01:05:07 PM
What can stop Bitcoin now?

These won't stop bitcoin, but any one could definitely reverse Bitcoin's current direction:

 - FinCEN going after exchanges for not filing as money transmitters (and/or for not registering as money service businesses) for selling "prepaid access".  (This includes those exchanges serving customers in the U.S. regardless of where the exchange is located).
 - Coinbase, BitMe, BitFloor, and CampBX being served subpoenas to cough up the USD and BTC transaction history for each of its customer accounts.
 - Blockchain.info being raided for mixing service, logs sized
 - Update to Adobe Flash released in January includes previously undetected wallet-stealer code that executed on all systems at 8am UTC February 19, 2013. [this is a hypothetical threat.]
 - etc.
 - etc.
 - etc.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: acayne on February 20, 2013, 01:10:22 PM
A large dump from a big holder is all that it takes.  ;D

I admit it looks good for BTC right now, but don't forget Bitcoin is the first of this kind and still experimental. There might be problems occurring that we can't even think about jet.

Also, 30 B, do you really believe this? ~3000 USD / BTC. Bitcoin have to be a lot more useful to be worth that much.

About the big dump of one shareholder: Hasn't there been a "large dump" of many shareholders because of mtgox-hacking already? Think the price was about 30USD/BTC then as well...why shouldn't it recover? The  advantages of bitcoin don't disappear because of it, so I think this can't really destroy it. But please elaborate on your point of view!

I completely agree about it being experimental and about coming problems we can't realize yet. But because of it being experimental and different it's also more useful than any other currency. In fact I believe it can grow to that extent. What's the "market capitalization" of the EURO and why would it be more useful than Bitcoin, for example?


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Jouke on February 20, 2013, 01:34:17 PM
Code:
./bitcoind stop


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: mintymark on February 20, 2013, 02:05:45 PM
Code:
./bitcoind stop

Yeah, that would do it!! LOL!!


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: wateristasty on February 20, 2013, 02:11:09 PM
The NSA could takeover 51% of the hashing.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: DannyHamilton on February 20, 2013, 03:02:11 PM
I suppose if the lead development team were to get into a disagreement about a change that would fork the blockchain, and both were to implement their own solution incompatible with each other, that might cause enough damage to result in a collapse of faith in the bitcoin concept and eventually put a stop to bitcoin.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: c0ldfusi0nz on February 20, 2013, 07:50:38 PM
If any first-world government decides to flex their legal muscles to shut down exchanges, that will kill off the adoption rate and at the very least cause bitcoin usage to stagnate.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Mike Christ on February 20, 2013, 07:56:35 PM
If any first-world government decides to flex their legal muscles to shut down exchanges, that will kill off the adoption rate and at the very least cause bitcoin usage to stagnate.

That's an issue that affects more than just Bitcoin ;D  But I agree.  It's more so, people allowing their governments full control over every aspect of their lives that the first-worlders can just say "Bitcoin supports terrorism" and anyone without half their brain functioning (not uncommon in Murica) would destroy any BTC they had and preach the message to their peers.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: taltamir on February 20, 2013, 07:59:32 PM
- Blockchain.info being raided for mixing service, logs sized
I thought bitcoin was a distributed p2p network exactly to prevent such a thing

If any first-world government decides to flex their legal muscles to shut down exchanges, that will kill off the adoption rate and at the very least cause bitcoin usage to stagnate.

This seems like its just a matter of time considering they have cracked down on any alternative currency in the past.
What can bitcoin do to survive in such a state?

That's an issue that affects more than just Bitcoin ;D  But I agree.  It's more so, people allowing their governments full control over every aspect of their lives that the first-worlders can just say "Bitcoin supports terrorism" and anyone without half their brain functioning (not uncommon in Murica) would destroy any BTC they had and preach the message to their peers.
Name a country where this isn't common (ugh, double negatives!)


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: greyhawk on February 20, 2013, 08:03:02 PM

-we've got "pure bitcoin-based" multi-million dollar businesses (silkroad, satoshiDICE, mtGox,...)


Ah, yes, the multi-million dollar businesses: a black market and a casino. Yeah, that historically always went well. No really, it did, except for those that got their brains bashed in or got sunk in the Hudson or gunned down in the street. But: there's always new blood to take up the slack.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Mike Christ on February 20, 2013, 08:05:28 PM
Name a country where this isn't common (ugh, double negatives!)

I really hope there is one, or we're truly screwed ;D  If not, let's invent one.  We'll call it Acirema :)


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: wateristasty on February 20, 2013, 08:12:39 PM
Quote
Name a country where this isn't common (ugh, double negatives!)

Iceland


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: taltamir on February 20, 2013, 08:15:51 PM
Name a country where this isn't common (ugh, double negatives!)

I really hope there is one, or we're truly screwed ;D  If not, let's invent one.  We'll call it Acirema :)

My parents emigrated to america a mere 10 years ago and its already going down the drain. I have been desperately looking somewhere to emigrate and can't find one sane nation on this globe.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: greyhawk on February 20, 2013, 08:18:06 PM
What about North Korea? They're decidedly anti-western. Well except for their leader's private entertainment, but otherwise? Decidedly anti-western.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: taltamir on February 20, 2013, 08:21:54 PM
What about North Korea? They're decidedly anti-western. Well except for their leader's private entertainment, but otherwise? Decidedly anti-western.
They are one of the most insane countries in the world.
Sane =! Anti western.

If countries were sane we wouldn't need an alternative currency to save us from irresponsible politicians the globe over printing money like mad or otherwise hamfistedly manipulating the currency.
And I doubt it will last since countries the world over have a history of cracking down on alternative currencies


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Mike Christ on February 20, 2013, 08:23:32 PM
Anarchy ;D  Where there is nation, there is government.  Where there is government...well, we all know how that plays out.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: johnwhitestar on February 20, 2013, 08:27:58 PM
Back to the topic: I think that at some point all the willing investors will fulfil their desire to buy bitcoins (especially because the price of bitcoins is going up too much) and at some point the trend will invert itself and because of it with the help of some panic sell the price of bitcoins might go under the reasonable value


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: greyhawk on February 20, 2013, 08:29:14 PM
There's always Bulgaria. They don't have a government right now. You could go waltz right in there and declare it the Fiscal Republic of Bitcoinistan.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: taltamir on February 20, 2013, 08:31:27 PM
There's always Bulgaria. They don't have a government right now. You could go waltz right in there and declare it the Fiscal Republic of Bitcoinistan.

I will need protection for that... any mercenary companies around accepting bitcoins...
Actually joking aside, are there any mercenary companies who accept bitcoins?


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Mike Christ on February 20, 2013, 08:31:43 PM
There's always Bulgaria. They don't have a government right now. You could go waltz right in there and declare it the Fiscal Republic of Bitcoinistan.

I laughed harder at this than I probably should have :P  I'll have to keep Bitcoinistan in my vocabulary from now on ;D


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: QuantumKiwi on February 20, 2013, 08:32:40 PM
There's always Bulgaria. They don't have a government right now. You could go waltz right in there and declare it the Fiscal Republic of Bitcoinistan.

I will need protection for that... any mercenary companies around accepting bitcoins...
Actually joking aside, are there any mercenary companies who accept bitcoins?

Yes there is, however i couldn't give you a name due to security reasons. But yes there is a large amount of security related companies that accept BTC.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: taltamir on February 20, 2013, 08:45:46 PM
There's always Bulgaria. They don't have a government right now. You could go waltz right in there and declare it the Fiscal Republic of Bitcoinistan.

I will need protection for that... any mercenary companies around accepting bitcoins...
Actually joking aside, are there any mercenary companies who accept bitcoins?

Yes there is, however i couldn't give you a name due to security reasons. But yes there is a large amount of security related companies that accept BTC.

This is probably very good for bitcoin


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: acayne on February 20, 2013, 11:14:20 PM
Back to the topic: I think that at some point all the willing investors will fulfil their desire to buy bitcoins (especially because the price of bitcoins is going up too much) and at some point the trend will invert itself and because of it with the help of some panic sell the price of bitcoins might go under the reasonable value

This brings new questions to mind: When is this desire first fulfilled (market capitalization)? Why would investors (not just traders speculating on BTC/fiat-exchange rate) heavily sell if Bitcoin's still the "best" currency? Wouldn't traders reinvest if exchange rate falls below "the reasonable value"?


-we've got "pure bitcoin-based" multi-million dollar businesses (silkroad, satoshiDICE, mtGox,...)


Ah, yes, the multi-million dollar businesses: a black market and a casino. Yeah, that historically always went well. No really, it did, except for those that got their brains bashed in or got sunk in the Hudson or gunned down in the street. But: there's always new blood to take up the slack.

Damn you make these examples sound bad :D Of course you'll make the fastest money in branches which are normally strongly regulated. "Conventional stuff" will follow: ASICMINER+Bitfountain should be worth a few million at current exchange rates and I think there are others as well.

If any first-world government decides to flex their legal muscles to shut down exchanges, that will kill off the adoption rate and at the very least cause bitcoin usage to stagnate.

Sounds like a very real threat. Banks/the government could accuse every exchange of terrorism and money laundry. Don't have any knowledge regarding this, can it really be done so easily?


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: nikb on February 20, 2013, 11:55:09 PM
Code:
./bitcoind stop

And if *that* fails, killall 9 bitcoind


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: wachtwoord on February 20, 2013, 11:59:30 PM

What can stop Bitcoin now?


A big ass meteorite, the sun going nova and maybe Global Thermonuclear War.

Oh you mean realistically? Another cryptocurrency which is superior in a way I obviously do not know (else I would create it). I'm pretty sure cryptocurrencies will be around for the the long run.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Mike Christ on February 21, 2013, 12:04:51 AM

What can stop Bitcoin now?


A big ass meteorite, the sun going nova and maybe Global Thermonuclear War.

Oh you mean realistically? Another cryptocurrency which is superior in a way I obviously do not know (else I would create it). I'm pretty sure cryptocurrencies will be around for the the long run.

+1

Whether it's Bitcoin or something else, this new technology has trumped the dollar in every single way.

Only question is, how much kicking and screaming should we expect from fiat?


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Stephen Gornick on February 21, 2013, 09:01:15 AM
- Blockchain.info being raided for mixing service, logs sized
I thought bitcoin was a distributed p2p network exactly to prevent such a thing

Bitcoin is a distributed p2p network exactly to prevent such a thing.

Blockchain.info is a third party service.   Because there isn't a requirement that users set up their wallet account to have an alias or to associate an e-mail address with the account, many are using it without getting possession of their private keys (e.g., backups sent via e-mail).  So if that service sees "friction", those who don't have their keys then don't have their coins.   Blockchain.info is now likely the most widely used wallet, after the Bitcoin.org client.  I suspect that if such an action were to occur, that action would be seriously harmful to Bitcoin.  I didn't say it would stop Bitcoin, but I did say it would probably knock Bitcoin down a few notches.  This is just like how the exchange hacks have nothing to do with Bitcoin network, but there was a loss in Bitcoin's credibility that came with each one.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Lassi on February 21, 2013, 09:08:51 AM
What can stop Bitcoin now?

These won't stop bitcoin, but any one could definitely reverse Bitcoin's current direction:

 - FinCEN going after exchanges for not filing as money transmitters (and/or for not registering as money service businesses) for selling "prepaid access".  (This includes those exchanges serving customers in the U.S. regardless of where the exchange is located).
 - Coinbase, BitMe, BitFloor, and CampBX being served subpoenas to cough up the USD and BTC transaction history for each of its customer accounts.
 - Blockchain.info being raided for mixing service, logs sized
 - Update to Adobe Flash released in January includes previously undetected wallet-stealer code that executed on all systems at 8am UTC February 19, 2013. [this is a hypothetical threat.]
 - etc.
 - etc.
 - etc.


Nasty doom and gloom. Have a Lassi and enjoy your day.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: kalinka on February 21, 2013, 09:52:54 AM
If any first-world government decides to flex their legal muscles to shut down exchanges, that will kill off the adoption rate and at the very least cause bitcoin usage to stagnate.

This seems like its just a matter of time considering they have cracked down on any alternative currency in the past.
What can bitcoin do to survive in such a state?

I agree. I have considered doing some small business (buying/selling) using bitcoins, and probably will, but it seems to be a hassle to convert from bitcoin to cash. And then there's this too..if bitcoin just dies one day then my coins are useless.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Stephen Gornick on February 21, 2013, 12:09:08 PM
Nasty doom and gloom. Have a Lassi and enjoy your day.

I wish there were no threats.  I wish the only news of the day were what you read at Good News:
 - http://www.goodmood-news.com

But this is the real world.  There are real threats to be aware of.  They do exist to some degree.  They are the reason Bitcoin isn't already at $29,870 per BTC rather than just $29.87.  This thread asked what could stop bitcoin and I was just putting out some possibilities.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Lethn on February 21, 2013, 12:18:23 PM
Why didn't I know about this site?! Now I'm going to be reading it constantly because that's just a million times better than the stupid overly negative mainstream news I see thrown everywhere :P


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: InfSys on February 21, 2013, 12:40:50 PM
I don't think Bitcoin can or will be stopped (in a classical sense).

It's more likely that it is modified/transformed in some way by exerting influence on its main developers. That's the real risk as i see it. The majority of users does not pay much attention to technical details - so it's possible that certain critical aspects of a new client release remain undiscovered until it's too late.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: wachtwoord on February 21, 2013, 01:08:34 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDgLOssQU8E

"Cause nothing can stop us now, only the good times left.
Nothing can stop our love,
except terminal illness or sudden accidental death!"


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: LainZ on February 21, 2013, 01:14:49 PM
Hello,

IMHO, What could stop bitcoin is the biggest players trying to manipulate the market, thus destroying BTC's credibity.

I hope the marketplace will be self regulating!

I think that a stable price will lead to adoption increase, as the world realize that USD or EUR, like bitcoin, is an experiment.

LainZ


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: romerun on February 21, 2013, 01:19:21 PM
the rise of other alt coins.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Luno on February 21, 2013, 01:26:55 PM
Just deposit 150M on your Gox account, no need to trade it or place orders, just let the insiders start a roumor. when the price hits $200 put a payout request for your 150M and watch Bitcoin loose what it has gained in credibility the last 17 months.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Zedster on February 21, 2013, 01:41:11 PM
Wow this thread is very gloom and doom.  I almost sold all my BTC by the end of page one.

But Bitcoinistan is legendary.  ;D


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Warry on February 21, 2013, 01:41:49 PM
Just deposit 150M on your Gox account, no need to trade it or place orders, just let the insiders start a roumor. when the price hits $200 put a payout request for your 150M and watch Bitcoin loose what it has gained in credibility the last 17 months.

I like that. Heh.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: johnwhitestar on February 21, 2013, 02:16:09 PM
Back to the topic: I think that at some point all the willing investors will fulfil their desire to buy bitcoins (especially because the price of bitcoins is going up too much) and at some point the trend will invert itself and because of it with the help of some panic sell the price of bitcoins might go under the reasonable value

This brings new questions to mind: When is this desire first fulfilled (market capitalization)? Why would investors (not just traders speculating on BTC/fiat-exchange rate) heavily sell if Bitcoin's still the "best" currency? Wouldn't traders reinvest if exchange rate falls below "the reasonable value"?


Even if BTC is the best of the best currencies of the universe there must be some physical limit for it to go up:
1) the supply of the investors has a limit (at least the rate of their increase)
2) their means are limited too
3) and even if BTC is a good currency you need fiat money to eat.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: nikb on February 21, 2013, 03:42:38 PM
Back to the topic: I think that at some point all the willing investors will fulfil their desire to buy bitcoins (especially because the price of bitcoins is going up too much) and at some point the trend will invert itself and because of it with the help of some panic sell the price of bitcoins might go under the reasonable value

This brings new questions to mind: When is this desire first fulfilled (market capitalization)? Why would investors (not just traders speculating on BTC/fiat-exchange rate) heavily sell if Bitcoin's still the "best" currency? Wouldn't traders reinvest if exchange rate falls below "the reasonable value"?


Even if BTC is the best of the best currencies of the universe there must be some physical limit for it to go up:
1) the supply of the investors has a limit (at least the rate of their increase)
2) their means are limited too
3) and even if BTC is a good currency you need fiat money to eat.

Why do you need fiat money to eat? Did people not eat before we had fiat money?


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Nuro77 on February 21, 2013, 03:51:33 PM
The shutdown of SilkRoad and the gambling sites would pretty much kill the market, as that is what is bootstrapping Bitcoin and driving the demand (and giving it real value). Get rid of that before the bitcoin market evolves passed it (if it even can), and it's dead.

Or kill TOR, or make it unusable in some way. Anonymity gone? Bitcoins gone.

Now those are real, actionable threats.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: taltamir on February 21, 2013, 07:05:36 PM
Why do you need fiat money to eat? Did people not eat before we had fiat money?
Because the restaurant will be heavily punished by the government otherwise.
See the war on gold/silver coins: http://abcnews.go.com/Business/gold-coin-dealers-decry-tax-law/story?id=11211611


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: nikb on February 21, 2013, 07:27:01 PM
Why do you need fiat money to eat? Did people not eat before we had fiat money?
Because the restaurant will be heavily punished by the government otherwise.
See the war on gold/silver coins: http://abcnews.go.com/Business/gold-coin-dealers-decry-tax-law/story?id=11211611

Nothing stops the restaurant from bartering. Or accepting gold bullion. Or anything else. And besides, that doesn't answer my question.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: nwbitcoin on February 21, 2013, 10:07:53 PM
As a newbie, I thought I would add my 2 BTC! ;)

There are a number of legal elements that can be created to kill bitcoins, although governments are far cleverer at killing ideas they don't like than to just make bitcoin use illegal.

For instance, they could add a 25% tax on all BTC to local currency conversion.

They could introduce anti laundering measures to all BTC to local currency transactions inc maximum limits on single transactions etc.

Finally, alternative crypto currencies could grab the attention of the public thanks to support from a big main stream supporter like Apple or NewsCorp.

We are currently at such an early stage of the development of crypto currencies that its much like using mosaic to surf the internet and imagining it will turn into Chrome by default!

Anyway, I'm here for the long term because I think its a great way for geeks to create a pension! :)


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: nobbynobbynoob on February 21, 2013, 10:21:31 PM
For instance, they could add a 25% tax on all BTC to local currency conversion.

They could introduce anti laundering measures to all BTC to local currency transactions inc maximum limits on single transactions etc.

Of course they could. They could even ban Bitcoin. That doesn't mean it's easily enforceable.

Quote
Finally, alternative crypto currencies could grab the attention of the public thanks to support from a big main stream supporter like Apple or NewsCorp.

We are currently at such an early stage of the development of crypto currencies that its much like using mosaic to surf the internet and imagining it will turn into Chrome by default!

+1

This is probably more of an issue.

Quote
Anyway, I'm here for the long term because I think its a great way for geeks to create a pension! :)

$10k+ per BTC and I will surely work but not be trapped in the slavery known as "employment".


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: johnwhitestar on February 21, 2013, 10:28:57 PM
Why do you need fiat money to eat? Did people not eat before we had fiat money?
Because the restaurant will be heavily punished by the government otherwise.
See the war on gold/silver coins: http://abcnews.go.com/Business/gold-coin-dealers-decry-tax-law/story?id=11211611

Nothing stops the restaurant from bartering. Or accepting gold bullion. Or anything else. And besides, that doesn't answer my question.

Once the human beings used to live in the caves...


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: veryveryinteresting on February 21, 2013, 10:43:18 PM
I think a first world government crackdown would only strengthen the BTC. We are here because the government is flexing too much.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Mike Christ on February 21, 2013, 10:45:36 PM
I think a first world government crackdown would only strengthen the BTC. We are here because the government is flexing too much.

Agreed.  Unless they come up with some pretty convincing tales for the sheeple, it'll be real hard to outlaw Bitcoin, and would only prove how much they fear it.  Just look at the great job they're doing with torrenting ;D


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Avestan on February 22, 2013, 07:42:19 PM
It's not possible to stop Bitcoin just by making it illegal.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Luno on February 22, 2013, 07:54:28 PM
Freak suggestions are fun too, so here goes:

Someone codes a trading platform or trading bot and gives it away for free. He is a nice guy offering plenty of tech support and his sofware gains popularity something like 15% of traders use it.

However the software is rigged. The moment the trading platform or the bot sees an offer with the decimals; .836473829 it fills the order.

So the nice guy is able to drive the market up or down at will, or steal all his users Bitcoins.

When that happens, everybody will suspect another Mt.Gox hack as it will look the same.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Evolvo on February 22, 2013, 08:06:48 PM
It might be difficult for government intervention to truly stop or slow down Bitcoin significantly because by the time they feel threatened by it the technology will have spread so far and global economics so reliant on it's utility.  Could it be possible that "too big to fail" will be the path of the Bitcoin?

I think the only foreseeable potential threat is anything that would cause the internet or electronics to stop working.  Extreme solar flares, etc...

It should be interesting to watch the steady adoption of this technology and the reaction to it by the mainstream and economic elite.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: nwbitcoin on February 22, 2013, 08:50:31 PM
Governments hate nothing more than losing power, and the moment they feel that bitcoin could do that, all hell will be let loose!

When the internet became mainstream, two things happened: the Peadophile and the Terrorist suddenly became unstoppable public enemy overnight - even though we all already knew they existed and had dealt with successfully for years.

Secondly, and more importantly, the idea of data protection, intellectual property and identity fraud were introduced to the public as reasons for regulation. 

The politicians, the media and the entire government system went into overdrive to stop people having too much freedom, and within a few years, the public learnt how to behave.

It doesn't take much to get the shrill into the air, and with the right message, bitcoin could be dead within a few months - and it will happen so fast, you won't know what hit you.

Bitcoin has the potential to revolutionise the entire financial system even more than the Rothschild family ever did - and that is far more scary to governments than even a low flying plane over New York!



Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: flyingkiwiguy on February 22, 2013, 09:10:07 PM
How about a concerted effort by Central Banks to discredit, debase and destroy any competition to their monopoly on currency issue?

Gary


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: taltamir on February 22, 2013, 09:26:47 PM
I had heard someone else suggest before that a single hostile government or large organization could initiate a 51% attack on bitcoin to corrupt the network.
Especially if they develop their own ASIC hardware

... has anyone estimated the hash rate of the world's top supercomputers?


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: flyingkiwiguy on February 22, 2013, 09:32:56 PM
... has anyone estimated the hash rate of the world's top supercomputers?

A lot less than the Bitcoin network, considering how specialised Bitcoin hardware is these days. Bitcoin is still a fiat currency, where the fiat is implicitly the Bitcoin Open Source community's consensus on the code base for signing transactions. As with any fiat currency its value is derived from belief in it as a store of value. Attack the legality and reputation of Bitcoin exchanges and you directly attack people's belief in the viability of Bitcoin.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: veteranBtc on February 22, 2013, 10:38:36 PM
I think nothing can stop Bitcoin now. From what I see, the value of bitcoin is growing pretty fast. I'll be happy to sell in the future.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: burakura22 on February 23, 2013, 07:02:16 AM
Better e-currency ?  Sometthing with faster confirmations, or maybe no confirmations at all.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: henq on February 23, 2013, 12:24:54 PM


My parents emigrated to america a mere 10 years ago and its already going down the drain. I have been desperately looking somewhere to emigrate and can't find one sane nation on this globe.

google for sovereign man, he advices Chile.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: massivebitman on February 23, 2013, 01:28:42 PM
It's not possible to stop Bitcoin just by making it illegal.

Totally disagree.

If the governments makes bitcoin illegal, all the exchanges will have to go bye bye. This means that bitcoin will lose mainstream adoption, and also make it a lot harder for the underground bitcoin people to operate, because at the end of the day they really need to change their BTC into cash if they want to buy anything legal... Right?


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: nwbitcoin on February 23, 2013, 01:38:27 PM
It's not possible to stop Bitcoin just by making it illegal.

Totally disagree.

If the governments makes bitcoin illegal, all the exchanges will have to go bye bye. This means that bitcoin will lose mainstream adoption, and also make it a lot harder for the underground bitcoin people to operate, because at the end of the day they really need to change their BTC into cash if they want to buy anything legal... Right?

Nonsense!

Silk road is a great example of illegal things being bought and sold!

More importantly, the example of mass shooting with illegal weapons by illegal users is key in demonstrating that illegal status makes no difference
 .

Enforcement of illegal things is the key, and most governments know, most people are self enforcing. If people refuse to stop using Bitcoins, it's going to take more actions by governments to kill it.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: yocko06 on February 23, 2013, 02:14:40 PM
if bitcoin was made illegal it may just give it the publicity it needs to get it going stronger. Criminal organizations would use it to transfer cash from country to country. these organizations don't want to use the Mt.Gox sites because this is putting there money on the system.
(Crime generates an estimated $2.1 trillion in global annual proceeds - or 3.6pc of the world's gross domestic product - and the problem may be growing, a senior United Nations official has said.)
If it was criminals alone using bitcoin it would bring the vale of each coin well above $1000.
the only end I see to bitcoin is due to 51% control of the hash power witch will be a hard task as more and more miners are starting up due to new mining teck. 
 


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: gILisH on February 23, 2013, 03:35:46 PM
1. Shutting down the internet.
2. Having one entity buying all Bitcoins existing at the moment and RIPing them.
3. If NP==P (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_versus_NP_problem). But this would change the whole world. Not just Bitcoin.
4. Loss of trust by the community.
5. Finding Satoshi and discovering he's the United States of America, or North Korea. Whatever makes the conspiracy more Hollywood style.



 


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: wachtwoord on February 23, 2013, 05:32:48 PM
1. Shutting down the internet.
2. Having one entity buying all Bitcoins existing at the moment and RIPing them.
3. If NP==P (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_versus_NP_problem). But this would change the whole world. Not just Bitcoin.
4. Loss of trust by the community.
5. Finding Satoshi and discovering he's the United States of America, or North Korea. Whatever makes the conspiracy more Hollywood style.


1. Very very difficult
2. Impossible (price will rise exponentially to a point the last partial Bitcoin not owned by the the buying entity to be worth more then all resources on Earth combined)
3. Would not destroy Bitcoin. Bitcoin would just switch it's hashing algorithm.
4. True, but would likely need a strong catalyst
5. I don't think that would matter at all.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Snowfire on February 23, 2013, 07:08:02 PM
I am less concerned by the outlawing scenarios--Bitcoin is not confined to any one country, and any such effort would need to be truly global and coordinated. I can imagine any number of countries might balk at cooperating on this one. And the fallout would not be limited to Bitcoin; all sorts of things from bonus points to buy-one-get-one-free coupons to frequent flier miles to virtual videogame tokens and subway tokens and many other things would become collateral casualties of a frontal legal assault.

Unofficial cyberattacks by botnets could bring the system down to a point where no one would want to use it any more, however.

But Bitcoin may just be a rough draft. What finally emerges (if any one thing does) may be more sophisticated, at which point Bitcoin might be discarded in favor of "bettercoin."

There might also emerge a nasty war between incompatible forks down the road, with no clear winner. That would certainly slow down adoption.
Also, the folks using Bitcoin as a speculative commodity rather than a currency are really hampering the latter use. No one wants to spend a currency that is rapidly rising, and no one wants to take it in payment if it is rapidly falling. True acceptance as a currency will only come when the speculators can be marginalized.

There is the problem that transactions take about 10 minutes to clear. No store cashier with a line of customers to serve can cope with that, and the problem might get worse as the block chain grows. Something like Ripple can be used as a front end to work around  this, but then  might merchants just chose do business natively in XRP and say to hell with BTC? The Open Coin people are not actively encouraging this, but neither are they trying actively to prevent it.

There are things which you will probably never be able to do in any cybercurrency, such as pay your taxes, tip your waitress, rent a car, buy airline tickets, buy or sell titlable property (real estate, vehicles, etc.) These transactions require either physical cash or credit cards, or must be denominated in national currency for tax reasons.

Also, a national currency is backed not only by the faith of the issuing government, but by its judicial authority (to enforce contracts, etc.) Bitcoin by its nature is not backed by any judicial authority; so if a dispute arises concerning a contract denominated in Bitcoin,  will any court agree to enforce it? I rather doubt it. Thus, few will want to receive their wages  or bid for a contract job in Bitcoin.

I see Bitcoin's role as an adjunct to national currency. Only in highly abnormal circumstances (such as the complete collapse of a national currency) could I see it acting as anything like a substitute--and then only temporarily.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: pulsecat on February 23, 2013, 07:38:16 PM
There are things which you will probably never be able to do in any cybercurrency, such as pay your taxes, tip your waitress, rent a car, buy airline tickets, buy or sell titlable property (real estate, vehicles, etc.) These transactions require either physical cash or credit cards, or must be denominated in national currency for tax reasons.

Also, a national currency is backed not only by the faith of the issuing government, but by its judicial authority (to enforce contracts, etc.) Bitcoin by its nature is not backed by any judicial authority; so if a dispute arises concerning a contract denominated in Bitcoin,  will any court agree to enforce it? I rather doubt it. Thus, few will want to receive their wages  or bid for a contract job in Bitcoin.

I see Bitcoin's role as an adjunct to national currency. Only in highly abnormal circumstances (such as the complete collapse of a national currency) could I see it acting as anything like a substitute--and then only temporarily.

I would agree with every point, if we are only comparing Bitcoins to traditional currencies. But most greatest thing about Bitcoin is that it is new phenomenon, it brings new ideas and probably will be game changer.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: acf6996 on February 23, 2013, 09:45:16 PM
Consider the free trade zone between USA and EU comes into existence.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4-hHOM5KW4&list=UU56WwNsqpbjme7r-URpl3OA

Consider that in future central banks could perceive Bitcoin as a threat to their ability to control money supply.
At least ECB considers Bitcoin to fall in their responsibility.
See end page 47: http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/other/virtualcurrencyschemes201210en.pdf

Both together could result in a ban of Bitcoin in USA and Europe ( Eumerica? ;) )

In this scenario I would expect a serious drop in demand and price for Bitcoin.

Remember, USA made owning gold illegal. Why shouldn't they do the same to Bitcoin if it seems appropriate?


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: wachtwoord on February 23, 2013, 09:46:36 PM

In this scenario I would expect a serious drop in demand and price for Bitcoin.


Funny, as I would expect an increase in both demand and price in this scenario.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: JaredR26 on February 23, 2013, 10:16:31 PM
If the big bad US government made bitcoin illegal, it could actually make a lot of things more difficult for everyone.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: shawshankinmate37927 on February 23, 2013, 11:19:19 PM

There are things which you will probably never be able to do in any cybercurrency, such as pay your taxes, tip your waitress, rent a car, buy airline tickets, buy or sell titlable property (real estate, vehicles, etc.) These transactions require either physical cash or credit cards, or must be denominated in national currency for tax reasons.


You could make a habit of always keeping a few paper wallets--like the one's found at bitaddress.org--with you that contain a couple of bucks worth of BTC.  You can then leave one as part of the tip for your waiter or waitress.  My guess is the waiter's/waitress's manager would just scratch their head and wouldn't even bother reporting it to the IRS.

Doing this would have the additional benefit of introducing more people to Bitcoin and perhaps spark their interest.  I would include a note on the back saying that if the BTC are not transferred to another address within 60 days or so the funds will be forfeited.  (You would need to keep a second copy of each paper wallet for yourself in order to transfer the BTC back to yourself if the recipient chose to forfeit them.)


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: FireBlazzer on February 23, 2013, 11:45:46 PM
if bit coins steps out of anomise stauts.... and is more accepted for everday tranasactions... then this could get really big.

as of now.. much of bit coins use is for gray areas of the law..... if those gray areas get sorted out.. bit coins may not be needed.... unless they can find there way into a larger amount of merchaints,,, and find a way to make it more easy to get them

it hurts my head just thinking about the invonveinces of aqquiring bit coins


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: acf6996 on February 23, 2013, 11:58:48 PM

In this scenario I would expect a serious drop in demand and price for Bitcoin.


Funny, as I would expect an increase in both demand and price in this scenario.

And why would demand increase if it becomes illegal for business owners to accept Bitcoin?

I assume part of Bitcoins recent increase in price comes from the increased expected use as medium of payment in all kinds of companies. 

If this expected use as medium of payment drops because Bitcoin is banned from legal use in USA and Europe I can not see another outcome than a drop in price.

Please explain.



Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: JasperDX7 on February 24, 2013, 12:04:05 AM
I don't see it stopping but I can see the value of it dropping dramatically. It happened a few times when the currently was first starting out.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Cornelius on February 24, 2013, 12:07:49 AM
What can stop Bitcoin now?

These won't stop bitcoin, but any one could definitely reverse Bitcoin's current direction:

 - FinCEN going after exchanges for not filing as money transmitters (and/or for not registering as money service businesses) for selling "prepaid access".  (This includes those exchanges serving customers in the U.S. regardless of where the exchange is located).
 - Coinbase, BitMe, BitFloor, and CampBX being served subpoenas to cough up the USD and BTC transaction history for each of its customer accounts.

Another thing that could hurt bitcoin would be a tax on virtual currencies. For obvious reasons, central banks and corrupt governments would certainly favour the idea, and could use their political influence to try pass a new tax law using arguments of illegal activities such as money laundering, drug abuse, under-aged gambling, etc., being facilitated by bitcoin. That wouldn't kill bitcoin, though.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: FireBlazzer on February 24, 2013, 12:09:23 AM

In this scenario I would expect a serious drop in demand and price for Bitcoin.


Funny, as I would expect an increase in both demand and price in this scenario.

And why would demand increase if it becomes illegal for business owners to accept Bitcoin?

I assume part of Bitcoins recent increase in price comes from the increased expected use as medium of payment in all kinds of companies. 

If this expected use as medium of payment drops because Bitcoin is banned from legal use in USA and Europe I can not see another outcome than a drop in price.

Please explain.



this makes me worried that goldman and other big banks are loooking into bit coins.. what are they plotting?..hmm


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: shawshankinmate37927 on February 24, 2013, 12:22:50 AM

In this scenario I would expect a serious drop in demand and price for Bitcoin.


Funny, as I would expect an increase in both demand and price in this scenario.

And why would demand increase if it becomes illegal for business owners to accept Bitcoin?

I assume part of Bitcoins recent increase in price comes from the increased expected use as medium of payment in all kinds of companies.  

If this expected use as medium of payment drops because Bitcoin is banned from legal use in USA and Europe I can not see another outcome than a drop in price.

Please explain.



For example, selling drugs in the USA is illegal, but is very profitable for those who are willing to break the law.  When bureaucrats make a product illegal, those who supply it are able to demand a premium.





Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: twolifeinexile on February 24, 2013, 12:33:22 AM
In this scenario I would expect a serious drop in demand and price for Bitcoin.
Funny, as I would expect an increase in both demand and price in this scenario.


And why would demand increase if it becomes illegal for business owners to accept Bitcoin?

I assume part of Bitcoins recent increase in price comes from the increased expected use as medium of payment in all kinds of companies. 

If this expected use as medium of payment drops because Bitcoin is banned from legal use in USA and Europe I can not see another outcome than a drop in price.

Please explain.


It depends on the point in time that the law is announced, if bitcoin is welll established in social fibre, then the ban should and will cause a big price drop and reasonablely so. If too early like as of now, it may spark interest and draw unwanted attention. If it happened in the middle phase, then I am not sure.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: wachtwoord on February 24, 2013, 12:39:33 AM

In this scenario I would expect a serious drop in demand and price for Bitcoin.


Funny, as I would expect an increase in both demand and price in this scenario.

And why would demand increase if it becomes illegal for business owners to accept Bitcoin?

I assume part of Bitcoins recent increase in price comes from the increased expected use as medium of payment in all kinds of companies. 

If this expected use as medium of payment drops because Bitcoin is banned from legal use in USA and Europe I can not see another outcome than a drop in price.

Please explain.



For example, selling drugs in the USA is illegal, but is very profitable for those who are willing to break the law.  When bureaucrats make a product illegal, those that supply it are able to demand a premium.





Indeed. Think liquor prices during the prohibition. (I imagine liquor prices are still inflated in dry US counties by I don't know. I do know prices are inflated in middle eastern countries that ban alcohol)


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: FireBlazzer on February 24, 2013, 01:19:01 AM

In this scenario I would expect a serious drop in demand and price for Bitcoin.


Funny, as I would expect an increase in both demand and price in this scenario.

And why would demand increase if it becomes illegal for business owners to accept Bitcoin?

I assume part of Bitcoins recent increase in price comes from the increased expected use as medium of payment in all kinds of companies. 

If this expected use as medium of payment drops because Bitcoin is banned from legal use in USA and Europe I can not see another outcome than a drop in price.

Please explain.



For example, selling drugs in the USA is illegal, but is very profitable for those who are willing to break the law.  When bureaucrats make a product illegal, those that supply it are able to demand a premium.





Indeed. Think liquor prices during the prohibition. (I imagine liquor prices are still inflated in dry US counties by I don't know. I do know prices are inflated in middle eastern countries that ban alcohol)

thats true... same for marijuana and prosutution.

marijuana should be 3 -5 dollers a gram or so retail... its about 20 a gram for the good stuff now.

prositution should be about 30 bucks a lay in a free market.... now its like 100 bucks


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Snowfire on February 24, 2013, 01:25:35 AM
The EU is a great deal less cohesive than you realize; it is riven with ethnic fault lines and old animosities. The ECB's remit extends only to the 17 Euro zone nations, not even the entire EU. And the EU and US constitute together less than half the world economy, even if this scenario comes to pass. A  ban in the US alone would have even less effect; Bitcoin is not originally or primarily an American phenomenon.

How would such a ban be couched? If targeted purely at Bitcoin, that would just leave the door wide open for Litecoin, et al. to rush in and fill the gap. If targeted broadly at any negotiable instrument not explicitly denominated in local national currency, that would cause a lot of collateral havoc--possessing Euros in the US could suddenly be a punishable offense, for example, in addition to  the other things I detailed above. I am just not convinced that it is going to happen, though I admit it as a slight probability.

Gold was confiscated before because governments needed it for their own use. Bitcoin is not gold, and cannot fulfill gold's role for a government. The parallel is questionable. A government might object to Bitcoin on prior legal principle, but to suppose that the miniscule Bitcoin economy is a threat to the stability of the larger economy is probably ridiculous.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: wachtwoord on February 24, 2013, 01:53:36 AM
prositution should be about 30 bucks a lay in a free market.... now its like 100 bucks

The market is free in the Netherlands but a quick search on the Dutch ebay for prostitution www.kinky.nl yields $100 US is pretty much the standard.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: twolifeinexile on February 24, 2013, 01:55:35 AM
The EU is a great deal less cohesive than you realize; it is riven with ethnic fault lines and old animosities. The ECB's remit extends only to the 17 Euro zone nations, not even the entire EU. And the EU and US constitute together less than half the world economy, even if this scenario comes to pass. A  ban in the US alone would have even less effect; Bitcoin is not originally or primarily an American phenomenon.

How would such a ban be couched? If targeted purely at Bitcoin, that would just leave the door wide open for Litecoin, et al. to rush in and fill the gap. If targeted broadly at any negotiable instrument not explicitly denominated in local national currency, that would cause a lot of collateral havoc--possessing Euros in the US could suddenly be a punishable offense, for example, in addition to  the other things I detailed above. I am just not convinced that it is going to happen, though I admit it as a slight probability.

Gold was confiscated before because governments needed it for their own use. Bitcoin is not gold, and cannot fulfill gold's role for a government. The parallel is questionable. A government might object to Bitcoin on prior legal principle, but to suppose that the miniscule Bitcoin economy is a threat to the stability of the larger economy is probably ridiculous.
Legally, bitcoin belongs to "negotiable instrument"?
Any similar legal precedence we can derive this categorization?


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Snowfire on February 24, 2013, 02:56:31 AM
The EU is a great deal less cohesive than you realize; it is riven with ethnic fault lines and old animosities. The ECB's remit extends only to the 17 Euro zone nations, not even the entire EU. And the EU and US constitute together less than half the world economy, even if this scenario comes to pass. A  ban in the US alone would have even less effect; Bitcoin is not originally or primarily an American phenomenon.

How would such a ban be couched? If targeted purely at Bitcoin, that would just leave the door wide open for Litecoin, et al. to rush in and fill the gap. If targeted broadly at any negotiable instrument not explicitly denominated in local national currency, that would cause a lot of collateral havoc--possessing Euros in the US could suddenly be a punishable offense, for example, in addition to  the other things I detailed above. I am just not convinced that it is going to happen, though I admit it as a slight probability.

Gold was confiscated before because governments needed it for their own use. Bitcoin is not gold, and cannot fulfill gold's role for a government. The parallel is questionable. A government might object to Bitcoin on prior legal principle, but to suppose that the miniscule Bitcoin economy is a threat to the stability of the larger economy is probably ridiculous.
Legally, bitcoin belongs to "negotiable instrument"?
Any similar legal precedence we can derive this categorization?

I am no lawyer. For me "negotiable instrument" is a term of convenience for something of explicitly agreed, precise value, which may be exchanged for something else.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: FireBlazzer on February 24, 2013, 03:04:30 AM
prositution should be about 30 bucks a lay in a free market.... now its like 100 bucks

The market is free in the Netherlands but a quick search on the Dutch ebay for prostitution www.kinky.nl yields $100 US is pretty much the standard.

but its not a free market in the Netherlands... not at all... maby they tell you it is... but look at the laws and you see its not even close to most other products in emrs of market freedom.. its highly manipulated in the netherlands..... thats why its about 100 dollers there... same price as well in the manipulated us market.. both legel and not legel. (prostution is legel in one state in the u.s.... but manipulated like in netherlands)

in a free markets... you would find prosittion is wayyy cheaper... about 30 u.s dollers... for a free lancer girl... even some borthels
but there are very few free markets for prosuttion.

take america for exmaple.. when prositution used to be a free market...  banging a cute girl would cost you the slighty more then some beer..... now it costs you 100 times more then a beer.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: massivebitman on February 24, 2013, 04:26:44 AM
It's not possible to stop Bitcoin just by making it illegal.

Totally disagree.

If the governments makes bitcoin illegal, all the exchanges will have to go bye bye. This means that bitcoin will lose mainstream adoption, and also make it a lot harder for the underground bitcoin people to operate, because at the end of the day they really need to change their BTC into cash if they want to buy anything legal... Right?

Nonsense!

Silk road is a great example of illegal things being bought and sold!

More importantly, the example of mass shooting with illegal weapons by illegal users is key in demonstrating that illegal status makes no difference
 .

Enforcement of illegal things is the key, and most governments know, most people are self enforcing. If people refuse to stop using Bitcoins, it's going to take more actions by governments to kill it.

It's not about illegal things being bought and sold, it's about the value add of bitcoin.

Individuals can easily refuse to stop using Bitcoin, but the companies which make bitcoin valuable can't. Mt Gox and the other exchanges bank accounts could be instantly frozen, and overnight bitcoin has a huge problem about buying and selling the currency that realistically couldn't be overcome.

Furthermore,
1. If bitcoin was illegal, then the majority of the people currently buying it would't be able to, and would no longer be interested.
2. With only underground exchanges left, there would be a massive oversupply of coins and the price of bitcoin would plummet through the floor.
3. Because the price is so low few people would be interested in mining.
4. Because so few people are mining, the network becomes open to 51% attacks
5. Nobody trusts the currency, and people revert to existing channels of trade.
5. Game over for bitcoin.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: altoidmintz on February 24, 2013, 05:24:54 AM
Few things could shut it down right now:

1) Supercomputers getting into mining and taking over the network. Big data companies could do this, certain research institutions with supercomputing power, or government military supercomputing branches.

2) A superior alternative could render BTC unnecessary. Not that I see this scenario likely, but it is possible. If Dwolla or Ripple got their stuff together they might actually be competition.

3) Exchange hacks. If Coinbase or Mt Gox went down again we could be set back years.

That's all I got. Really #3 would only set us back though not kill us.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: DannyHamilton on February 24, 2013, 05:34:43 AM
- snip -
1) Supercomputers getting into mining and taking over the network. Big data companies could do this, certain research institutions with supercomputing power, or government military supercomputing branches.
- snip -

Explain this one.  I don't understand how someone adding additional hashing power to secure the network would shut it down.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: altoidmintz on February 24, 2013, 05:53:44 AM
- snip -
1) Supercomputers getting into mining and taking over the network. Big data companies could do this, certain research institutions with supercomputing power, or government military supercomputing branches.
- snip -

Explain this one.  I don't understand how someone adding additional hashing power to secure the network would shut it down.

From https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Weaknesses#Attacker_has_a_lot_of_computing_power:
   "An attacker that controls more than 50% of the network's computing power can, for the time that he is in control, exclude and modify the ordering of transactions. This allows him to:
Reverse transactions that he sends while he's in control. This has the potential to double-spend transactions that previously had already been seen in the block chain.
Prevent some or all transactions from gaining any confirmations
Prevent some or all other miners from mining any valid blocks"

This would allow anyone with enough computing power to halt transactions of BTC. What good is BTC if you can't conduct a transaction with it?


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: DannyHamilton on February 24, 2013, 06:22:01 AM
- snip -
This would allow anyone with enough computing power to halt transactions of BTC. What good is BTC if you can't conduct a transaction with it?

It wouldn't necessarily stop transactions, it would only delay confirmations for the amount of time that the attacker could maintain more hashing power than the sum of all the hashing power provided by the entire honest network.

However, supercomputers are not very good at performing SHA-256 hash. If someone was going to try to provide more than 35 THash/sec they would be better off attempting to build themselves 438 ASIC that can manage 80 GHash/sec.  They better build them quickly though or the network difficulty will build and they'll need several thousand of them.

I'm not saying that a large corporation (or country) couldn't acquire enough hashing power, just that it's more difficult than it sounds, and would require more hashing power than any of them currently have available.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: taltamir on February 24, 2013, 08:08:10 AM
if bit coins steps out of anomise stauts.... and is more accepted for everday tranasactions... then this could get really big.

as of now.. much of bit coins use is for gray areas of the law..... if those gray areas get sorted out.. bit coins may not be needed.... unless they can find there way into a larger amount of merchaints,,, and find a way to make it more easy to get them

it hurts my head just thinking about the invonveinces of aqquiring bit coins

There is nothing "gray" about drug cartels. Its flat out illegal. And newsflash, the vast majority of criminal activity occurs with traditional currencies rather then bitcoin
You can't just "sort out" the fact drug cartels now use bitcoin alongside traditional currencies


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: FireBlazzer on February 24, 2013, 09:53:29 AM
if bit coins steps out of anomise stauts.... and is more accepted for everday tranasactions... then this could get really big.

as of now.. much of bit coins use is for gray areas of the law..... if those gray areas get sorted out.. bit coins may not be needed.... unless they can find there way into a larger amount of merchaints,,, and find a way to make it more easy to get them

it hurts my head just thinking about the invonveinces of aqquiring bit coins

There is nothing "gray" about drug cartels. Its flat out illegal. And newsflash, the vast majority of criminal activity occurs with traditional currencies rather then bitcoin
You can't just "sort out" the fact drug cartels now use bitcoin alongside traditional currencies

new flash... even though the vast majoirty of crimnal actvility is used with traditional currency.....  the vast majoirty of bit coins are used to illgiel activlity.. big difference.

and yes... you can sort out the laws that make bit coins a sussues.... like making drugs legel thus people will use much more conveint feit currency rather then inconvinnt bitcoins


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: pulsecat on February 24, 2013, 12:15:16 PM
If the big bad US government made bitcoin illegal, it could actually make a lot of things more difficult for everyone.

Even if this happens, I do not think Bitcoin will be affected in anyway, except maybe dropping exchange rate for a while. Recently US goverment made online gambling illegal. As the result, who suffered? US gamblers. Who lost their profits? US gambling companies.


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: ssbtoday on March 05, 2013, 09:59:55 PM
An emp...


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: zdavidi on March 05, 2013, 10:41:51 PM
Reading all these supportive posts in favor of bitcoin makes me smile. Hopefully we'll all be the next generation tycoons!!


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: nitrogenetics on March 05, 2013, 11:48:03 PM
Stopping peer to peer is a very difficult task. You'll either need to stop all the peers or their underlying network.
I suppose stopping the internet or making computers illegal would be extremely unpopular for any kind of government/authority!


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: Mike Christ on March 05, 2013, 11:51:40 PM
Stopping peer to peer is a very difficult task. You'll either need to stop all the peers or their underlying network.
I suppose stopping the internet or making computers illegal would be extremely unpopular for any kind of government/authority!

Any legislation which allows outside forces (i.e., the government and all its pets) to spy on what you do on your computer would likely bring an end to, well, almost anything, but Bitcoin included.  I don't think they're ever going to stop introducing new bills about it, until they've lobbied their way into your hard drive :o  Last I heard was CISPA, but there's bound to be plenty more under different guises all aiming for the same thing.  VPN is pretty easy to get nowadays tho...


Title: Re: What could really stop bitcoin now?
Post by: taltamir on March 06, 2013, 08:29:18 AM
Stopping peer to peer is a very difficult task. You'll either need to stop all the peers or their underlying network.
I suppose stopping the internet or making computers illegal would be extremely unpopular for any kind of government/authority!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_packet_inspection

Actually they wouldn't even need that, they just need basic filtering to detect the existence of bitcoin activity and then police raids your house.