What could really stop bitcoin now?

[romerun]

the rise of other alt coins.

[Luno]

Just deposit 150M on your Gox account, no need to trade it or place orders, just let the insiders start a roumor. when the price hits $200 put a payout request for your 150M and watch Bitcoin loose what it has gained in credibility the last 17 months.

[Zedster]

Wow this thread is very gloom and doom.  I almost sold all my BTC by the end of page one.

But Bitcoinistan is legendary. 

[Warry]

Just deposit 150M on your Gox account, no need to trade it or place orders, just let the insiders start a roumor. when the price hits $200 put a payout request for your 150M and watch Bitcoin loose what it has gained in credibility the last 17 months.

I like that. Heh.

[johnwhitestar]

Back to the topic: I think that at some point all the willing investors will fulfil their desire to buy bitcoins (especially because the price of bitcoins is going up too much) and at some point the trend will invert itself and because of it with the help of some panic sell the price of bitcoins might go under the reasonable value

This brings new questions to mind: When is this desire first fulfilled (market capitalization)? Why would investors (not just traders speculating on BTC/fiat-exchange rate) heavily sell if Bitcoin's still the "best" currency? Wouldn't traders reinvest if exchange rate falls below "the reasonable value"?

Even if BTC is the best of the best currencies of the universe there must be some physical limit for it to go up:
1) the supply of the investors has a limit (at least the rate of their increase)
2) their means are limited too
3) and even if BTC is a good currency you need fiat money to eat.

[nikb]

Back to the topic: I think that at some point all the willing investors will fulfil their desire to buy bitcoins (especially because the price of bitcoins is going up too much) and at some point the trend will invert itself and because of it with the help of some panic sell the price of bitcoins might go under the reasonable value

This brings new questions to mind: When is this desire first fulfilled (market capitalization)? Why would investors (not just traders speculating on BTC/fiat-exchange rate) heavily sell if Bitcoin's still the "best" currency? Wouldn't traders reinvest if exchange rate falls below "the reasonable value"?

Even if BTC is the best of the best currencies of the universe there must be some physical limit for it to go up:
1) the supply of the investors has a limit (at least the rate of their increase)
2) their means are limited too
3) and even if BTC is a good currency you need fiat money to eat.

Why do you need fiat money to eat? Did people not eat before we had fiat money?

[Nuro77]

The shutdown of SilkRoad and the gambling sites would pretty much kill the market, as that is what is bootstrapping Bitcoin and driving the demand (and giving it real value). Get rid of that before the bitcoin market evolves passed it (if it even can), and it's dead.

Or kill TOR, or make it unusable in some way. Anonymity gone? Bitcoins gone.

Now those are real, actionable threats.

[taltamir]

Why do you need fiat money to eat? Did people not eat before we had fiat money?

Because the restaurant will be heavily punished by the government otherwise.
See the war on gold/silver coins: http://abcnews.go.com/Business/gold-coin-dealers-decry-tax-law/story?id=11211611

[nikb]

Why do you need fiat money to eat? Did people not eat before we had fiat money?

Because the restaurant will be heavily punished by the government otherwise.
See the war on gold/silver coins: http://abcnews.go.com/Business/gold-coin-dealers-decry-tax-law/story?id=11211611

Nothing stops the restaurant from bartering. Or accepting gold bullion. Or anything else. And besides, that doesn't answer my question.

[nwbitcoin]

As a newbie, I thought I would add my 2 BTC!

There are a number of legal elements that can be created to kill bitcoins, although governments are far cleverer at killing ideas they don't like than to just make bitcoin use illegal.

For instance, they could add a 25% tax on all BTC to local currency conversion.

They could introduce anti laundering measures to all BTC to local currency transactions inc maximum limits on single transactions etc.

Finally, alternative crypto currencies could grab the attention of the public thanks to support from a big main stream supporter like Apple or NewsCorp.

We are currently at such an early stage of the development of crypto currencies that its much like using mosaic to surf the internet and imagining it will turn into Chrome by default!

Anyway, I'm here for the long term because I think its a great way for geeks to create a pension!

[nobbynobbynoob]

For instance, they could add a 25% tax on all BTC to local currency conversion.

They could introduce anti laundering measures to all BTC to local currency transactions inc maximum limits on single transactions etc.

Of course they could. They could even ban Bitcoin. That doesn't mean it's easily enforceable.

Finally, alternative crypto currencies could grab the attention of the public thanks to support from a big main stream supporter like Apple or NewsCorp.

We are currently at such an early stage of the development of crypto currencies that its much like using mosaic to surf the internet and imagining it will turn into Chrome by default!

+1

This is probably more of an issue.

Anyway, I'm here for the long term because I think its a great way for geeks to create a pension!

$10k+ per BTC and I will surely work but not be trapped in the slavery known as "employment".

[johnwhitestar]

Why do you need fiat money to eat? Did people not eat before we had fiat money?

Because the restaurant will be heavily punished by the government otherwise.
See the war on gold/silver coins: http://abcnews.go.com/Business/gold-coin-dealers-decry-tax-law/story?id=11211611

Nothing stops the restaurant from bartering. Or accepting gold bullion. Or anything else. And besides, that doesn't answer my question.

Once the human beings used to live in the caves...

[veryveryinteresting]

I think a first world government crackdown would only strengthen the BTC. We are here because the government is flexing too much.

[Mike Christ]

I think a first world government crackdown would only strengthen the BTC. We are here because the government is flexing too much.

Agreed.  Unless they come up with some pretty convincing tales for the sheeple, it'll be real hard to outlaw Bitcoin, and would only prove how much they fear it.  Just look at the great job they're doing with torrenting

[Avestan]

It's not possible to stop Bitcoin just by making it illegal.

[Luno]

Freak suggestions are fun too, so here goes:

Someone codes a trading platform or trading bot and gives it away for free. He is a nice guy offering plenty of tech support and his sofware gains popularity something like 15% of traders use it.

However the software is rigged. The moment the trading platform or the bot sees an offer with the decimals; .836473829 it fills the order.

So the nice guy is able to drive the market up or down at will, or steal all his users Bitcoins.

When that happens, everybody will suspect another Mt.Gox hack as it will look the same.

[Evolvo]

It might be difficult for government intervention to truly stop or slow down Bitcoin significantly because by the time they feel threatened by it the technology will have spread so far and global economics so reliant on it's utility.  Could it be possible that "too big to fail" will be the path of the Bitcoin?

I think the only foreseeable potential threat is anything that would cause the internet or electronics to stop working.  Extreme solar flares, etc...

It should be interesting to watch the steady adoption of this technology and the reaction to it by the mainstream and economic elite.

[nwbitcoin]

Governments hate nothing more than losing power, and the moment they feel that bitcoin could do that, all hell will be let loose!

When the internet became mainstream, two things happened: the Peadophile and the Terrorist suddenly became unstoppable public enemy overnight - even though we all already knew they existed and had dealt with successfully for years.

Secondly, and more importantly, the idea of data protection, intellectual property and identity fraud were introduced to the public as reasons for regulation. 

The politicians, the media and the entire government system went into overdrive to stop people having too much freedom, and within a few years, the public learnt how to behave.

It doesn't take much to get the shrill into the air, and with the right message, bitcoin could be dead within a few months - and it will happen so fast, you won't know what hit you.

Bitcoin has the potential to revolutionise the entire financial system even more than the Rothschild family ever did - and that is far more scary to governments than even a low flying plane over New York!

[flyingkiwiguy]

How about a concerted effort by Central Banks to discredit, debase and destroy any competition to their monopoly on currency issue?

Gary

[taltamir]

I had heard someone else suggest before that a single hostile government or large organization could initiate a 51% attack on bitcoin to corrupt the network.
Especially if they develop their own ASIC hardware

... has anyone estimated the hash rate of the world's top supercomputers?