Bitcoin Forum

 Last thread we had no winner

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1453467.0

So prize jumps to 0.40 btc


Okay rules  

1)you must have been on this site since March 1st 2016  you must have at least 30 posts.
2)I will check you out if you are new and decide if you can play.
3)you get one play per adjustment. which must be yours alone, in proper format and can not be changed.



4)Do not pick someone else's number If you do I will assign a number and that will not be changed
5) picks start at:

Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   210,010,283,433 (+8.11%)
Adjust time:   After 1975 Blocks, About 13.5 days   1116 note the change
Hashrate(?):   1,425,436,593 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.1 minutes
Updated:   9:40 (2.6 minutes ago)




6) picks end at

Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   210,010,283,433 (+8.11%)
Adjust time:   After 1975 Blocks, About 13.5 days   716 note the change
Hashrate(?):   1,425,436,593 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.1 minutes
Updated:   



7)  since this is a free contest I make all decisions if there are any issues or problems.


8 ) note the change  picks start later and end late in the hope of helping a person to pick a winner.

9) format is below and this is the last contest picks

-1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>  if I hit I will roll it back in
-0.5 = Erumara        
  0.0 = adaseb
+0.7 = adib
+0.8 = ingiltere
+0.9 = usenet
+1.0 = NeuroticFish
+1.4 = ahmedjamal1998
+1.5 = lolxxxx
+1.7 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.3 = fr4nkthetank
+2.7 = blindminer
+3.0 = topiOleg
+3.1 = tlhIlwI
+3.2 = Psi
+3.3 = HagssFIN     you are welcome!
+3.4 = HerbPean
+3.5 = Veves1
+3.6 = Cuidler
+3.7! Thank you!    @ Roadstress  Pleaz try to do it right >    +3.7 = Roadstress
+3.9 = flikflak
+4.0 = pusttiu
+4.1 = Amph
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.5 = redhack
+4.6 = talks_cheep
+4.7 = Ankara
+4.8  = indiemax
+4.9 = ATguy
+5.0 = alh
+5.1 = FruitsBasket
+5.2 = VRobb
+5.3 = Dexter770221
+5.4 = gnaoui
+5.5 = vapourminer
+5.6 = mavericklm     I changed your pick to   +5.6 as vapourminer had +5.5
+5.7 = wlefever
+5.8 = Notlist3d
+5.9 = Chris!
+6.5 = wpt1wpt1
+6.6 = edonkey
+6.7 = zebedee
+6.8 = AM4Bitcoin
+6.9% = Mikestang
+7.6 = RichBC


Difficulty History

Date                     Difficulty                  Change   Hash Rate

May 11 2016   194,254,820,283   8.73%   1,390,530,167 GH/s


Apr 28 2016   178,659,257,773   -0.01%   1,278,892,782 GH/s
Apr 14 2016   178,678,307,672   7.09%   1,279,029,147 GH/s
Apr 01 2016   166,851,513,283   0.82%   1,194,369,655 GH/s
Mar 18 2016   165,496,835,118   4.46%   1,184,672,491 GH/s
Mar 04 2016   158,427,203,767   -3.10%   1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016   163,491,654,909   13.44%   1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016   120,033,340,651   5.89%   859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796           18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900           8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643          10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450   2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039   2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234   4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328   2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409   0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846   2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com

10) Finally we will be able to fund contest until at least the first diff jump in sept.

 unless of course the ½ing destroys mining. :o :o

0.4BTC, holy cow!  That's quite a prize for a free pick-em game.

I think the on and off hash power may have been some of this next generation gear being tested or burned in, and now it's here to stay.

Yeah, lots of rollovers with the .1 range.

That one is going to be hard to guess.

My guts tell me we are going to to see some slowdown in the hashrate with a very low diff... but I don't really trust it ! hahahha  ;D

Yeah I shifted picks 100 blocks later as 0.40 btc is pretty high and I want a winner.

So by the shift it should have a easier time to pick a winner.

also 0.40 btc is our biggest btc prize ever.

We should have a lot of picks.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   210,638,878,472 (+8.43%)
Adjust time:   After 1936 Blocks, About 13.2 days   >>>>>> 1116 is the start point
Hashrate(?):   1,426,876,562 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.4 minutes
6 blocks: 58.9 minutes
Updated:


http://bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   411344
Total BTC   15.534M
 
Difficulty   194254820283
Estimated   195057429883 in 1936 blks    A big drop off as of now
 
Network total   1300218.499 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.70 / 632 s


http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-thumbnail.png



we are at 1% or less 'real' time

price is 455 at coinbase.

So waiting til block 1116 will give a better idea  what to pick

Phil  do we have  an update on blocks?

You are lazy https://blockchain.info/blocks/1462938239540




  we are at block 117

Height   Time   Relayed By   Hash   Size (kB)


411382 (Main Chain)   2016-05-12 03:41:44   117 made since diff started

411265 (Main Chain)   2016-05-11 05:37:45     first


so 117 made in  22 hours

should be at 132

so 117/132-1  =    -11.36%    crazy low at the moment.  


thats is right from + 8 to -11   but it is early.



look at chart we are under big time

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-thumbnail.png

still doing a solid negative for real numbers



411432 (Main Chain)    2016-05-12 11:07:55   current block made
411265 (Main Chain)   2016-05-11 05:37:45     first block made



so this means 167 made in 29 hours 30 minutes    should be 177 blocks

so 167/177-1 = -5.65%     but we are only 167 blocks in.


All hashrate is below the  current blue line below as this has not been updated since the one in the  above post.

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-thumbnail.png

The good news on value is we are not really going down to much on this period after May 10's drop.   But we are not going up really much either with price around 451.  I kinda like the coindesk chart if you have not used it ever might check it out - http://www.coindesk.com/price/   I personally use coinbase when I sell (normally to pay electricity) but it is easy to select what exchange on it to view.

Bitwisdom currently:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:    209,557,270,044 (+7.88%)
Adjust time:    After 1811 Blocks, About 12.5 days
Hashrate(?):    1,363,831,731 GH/s

The post immediately above yours has all the info you could want, plus links to click to take you to find more.  The time it took you to post this question you could have answered it yourself.

Looks like they mis-timed turning off their hash, or we are seeing next gen hardware coming off line to be boxed up for distribution.

Well I could use a -1 or -2 % drop

but we are only 223 blocks into this jump


411487 (Main Chain)   2016-05-12 20:40:07
411265 (Main Chain)   2016-05-11 05:37:45


so time is 39 hours = 234 blocks

made is 223 blocks


223/234 -1 =  -4.70% 

but so many blocks left  we can do back to back 165 block days and be at +6%

I delayed picks by 100 blocks  since I want us to hit this contest.

so by the time we are 900 blocks  made with 1116 blocks left we will have a better idea.

+3.5 = lindin99

+5.5 = Veves1

So first full Day of the new Period and we saw -3.97% with 139 Blocks. Things are up a little this Morning but the Run Rate so far this period is holding around -3.9%. The change to the pick window will add to the tension and make this even more of a do I go for the pick I want or wait to see what is happening game....  :)


Rich

this pick does not count too soon


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   209,804,463,083 (+8.00%)
Adjust time:   After 1702 Blocks, About 11.7 days
Hashrate(?):   1,360,503,064 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.7 minutes
6 blocks: 59.4 minutes
Updated:

After Blocks    needs to be  1116    we are at 1702

this pick does not count too soon


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   209,804,463,083 (+8.00%)
Adjust time:   After 1702 Blocks, About 11.7 days
Hashrate(?):   1,360,503,064 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):  
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.7 minutes
6 blocks: 59.4 minutes
Updated:

After Blocks    needs to be  1116    we are at 1702

Reading the rules too hard for you guys?

Be nice bro.



 To be honest I was  going to get nasty, but It is a multi-country  contest and English may be a third or fourth language for some players.
I have made more then one mistake in these Diff threads.  I also continue to hope one thread for one contest everyone follows all rules and makes zero mistakes.


If you want to have fun look this thread up.

The start of the prizes were in this thread.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=938186.0


do you remember seriouscoin?

Price is up a little bit at 455.  Would like to see a slow growth to over 460... don't know if we will get that though.  Would be nice.

Bitwisdom does not look to pretty right now:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:    210,962,771,580 (+8.60%)
Adjust time:    After 1645 Blocks, About 11.2 days
Hashrate(?):    1,360,019,035 GH/s

and we are picking up speed today see chart below

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-thumbnail.png




411644 (Main Chain)   2016-05-13 21:43:45


411265 (Main Chain)   2016-05-11 05:37:45

we have made 380 blocks so far in   64 hours    should be  384

so 380/384 -1 =    -1.04 %   This is real time  and very early but decent speeds as of now.

Yesterday was +5.56% with 152 Blocks but the small number of Blocks so far means we have big variance swings. As Phil says real time we are still negative although we are gradually moving up and 8 Hours in are now at -0.6%.

Richj

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   209,109,761,072 (+7.65%)
Adjust time:   After 1555 Blocks, About 10.7 days   <<< about 3 days to picks starting
Hashrate(?):   1,357,065,541 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.8 minutes
6 blocks: 59.6 minutes
Updated:


the site above is giving a future number based on the last diff +7.56%

the site below has the real time number near     0.0 %   

http://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   411460
Total BTC   15.537M
 
Difficulty   194254820283
Estimated   194524231738 in 1820 blks
 
Network total   1381989.564 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.96 / 604 s


the graph below shows more under the blue line then over.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-thumbnail.png

Hashrate(?):   1,336,112,524 GH/s

1480 => 1336 ... the magic 150 Peta :P

Bitwisdom still looks like it is going to hurt:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:    209,522,633,526 (+7.86%)
Adjust time:    After 1517 Blocks, About 10.4 days
Hashrate(?):    1,345,088,112 GH/s

Price remains pretty even at 455.  Still not getting into 460's this period.  Hopefully that changes.

comes back time and time again.

and we are drifting just under -1.0%

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-thumbnail.png





411846 (Main Chain)   2016-05-15 07:47:01

411265 (Main Chain)   2016-05-11 05:37:45

we have made 582 blocks so far in   98 hours   20 min  should be  590

So 582/590-1 =    -1.35%  that is the real time number.

really comes close to this
http://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   411460
Total BTC   15.537M
 
Difficulty   194254820283
Estimated   194524231738 in 1820 blks
 
Network total   1381989.564 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.96 / 604 s

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-thumbnail.png



so above is -1.3%

below is  +7.42%

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   208,660,205,792 (+7.42%)
Adjust time:   After 1433 Blocks, About 9.9 days     we start at 1116
Hashrate(?):   1,379,685,221 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.7 minutes
6 blocks: 59.4 minutes
Updated:   


coinbase = $459

are picks closed?

 >:(

this was so quick.

No, they have not opened yet.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   207,238,205,356 (+6.68%)
Adjust time:   After 1383 Blocks, About 9.6 days  <<<<<   we start at block 1116!!
Hashrate(?):   1,416,938,451 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.9 minutes
Updated:   13:20 (7.6 minutes ago)

Coinbase is over 460, hopefully we can get it to stay for a while.  Not by much at 461 and change but I will take it.

And coindesk has a nice API for watching it and other exchanges - http://www.coindesk.com/price/ .  I like being able to select the exchanges as some do tend to be higher then others.

Pretty crazy how difficulty is almost 200B and a year ago it was only 48B.

Well price was under 250 and the s-5 did .51 watts a gh.

So depending on the exact day to compare to about a year we are close to even.



I am on my iPad which sucks to,do a direct comparison .

I will go on the Mac mini and do Jan 1 feb 1 Mar 1 apr 1 May 1 2015

Dec 30 2014 diff = 40.6    price 317

Jan 27  2015 diff = 41.2    price 255

Feb 22 2015 diff = 46.6     price 237

Mar 22 2015 diff = 46.7    price 269

May 03 2015 diff = 47.6   price  240

May 31 2015 diff = 47.5   price  230


today diff is 194                price is 461


So   compare us to May 31  2x the price       so take the diff of 194  make it 97

and a top notch s-7 with a plat psu will do .25 watts a gh    that is ½   the s-5   so 97/2 = 48.5


So an adjusted diff  for now = 48.5  as compared  to  47.5    the may 31st date of 2015.


So we are about an exact tie if you have an s-7 upgrade from the s-5.

Of course the ½ ing is around the corner so a shake up is coming

exciting times ahead ahoy !  with all the s9 speculation going around....the production will be ramped up on that one.  I suspect diff will continue to rise, somewhat dramatically until halving.

So we are 4 Full Days in and things are currently looking like nothing has been added so far. Yesterday was -3.47% with 139 Blocks and Period Run Rate to Date is -1.5%. I too feel that S9 must be being deployed at Bitmain, so we may see the rate lifting later in the Period. Or we may not  :) this predicting is very hard....  ;D


Rich

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   203,671,487,550 (+4.85%)  this is about 6% off.
Adjust time:   After 1280 Blocks, About 9.0 days    we are starting in about 164 blocks
Hashrate(?):   1,385,412,753 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   

https://bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   411460
Total BTC   15.537M
 
Difficulty   194254820283
Estimated   194524231738 in 1820 blks
 
Network total   1381989.564 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.96 / 604 s

this is closer.

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-thumbnail.png

the chart is mostly under the blue line which is negative.

price is stable at 458

I won't complain at all if we could get a difficulty change of 5 percent or less.  I like to stay under that.... but that does not always happen.   I just wish we could keep gaining value.  It seems like we are stuck around 450's right now.  Hard to stay above 460 for long.

The next 2 months or so until having I think will be interesting to watch is something I'm sure of.

we are pretty solid -1% at the moment.  prices are at 458-465

would be good to stay at that.

we open in 115 blocks.

 A  bump for phil

My alter ego account bumped thread.

current info coming up

this is block we are at.
https://blockchain.info/blocks

412092 (Main Chain)   2016-05-17 01:42:47

411265 (Main Chain)   2016-05-11 05:37:45     first


so 818 blocks so far

the time is 5 days and 20 hours  that is a pace of 840 to be at 0%

so 818/840 = 0.9738 or   (-2.619%)

that is a fine number  and the real time number.

below is the future pick

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   203,083,803,151 (+4.55%)  way high compared to real time number
Adjust time:   After 1187 Blocks, About 8.4 days
Hashrate(?):   1,373,286,879 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:


gun to my head picking right now I would average them out  add a little  and pick +1.1

picks should start in around 11 hours. I should be awake at the time since that would about 9 or 10 am east coast time.

Not sure if we are being lulled into a false sense of security but we continue to trogg along nicely, just in negative territory. Yesterday was -2.08% with 141 Blocks and the Period to Date Run Rate, 8 Hours in Today, is at -1.7%. Let's hope this continues, often things change just after Picks Close.... Which of course will be later this time.  :)


Rich

i think the contest will begin in about 6-7 hours (40 blocks)
am i right?

as of now 11 more blocks.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   202,190,114,703 (+4.08%)
Adjust time:   After 1127 Blocks, About 7.9 days >>>>>>>>>>> at 1116 we start
Hashrate(?):   1,375,164,163 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   

this is block we are at.

412153 (Main Chain)   2016-05-17 11:38:29

411265 (Main Chain)   2016-05-11 05:37:45     first  for this jump

so 889 blocks in  6 days and 6 hours      6 x 144 = 864    plus 6 x 6 = 36      so 0% would be 900 blocks

889/900 = 0.9877  - 1 =   (-1.222%)  that is real time    way lower then bitcoinwisdom's  (4.08%) future time.

A safe guess would be to average the two numbers which  would be (+1.43%)

no question  making a longer wait  to start and a longer wait to end should help us pick a winner this time.

If we do the prize is 0.4 btc



so low         =       (-1.22%)
average      =      (+1.43%)
future  high =      (+4.08%)

based on that  we should be      -4 to +6      I do not think we can be outside that  number range

Looks like it's game on!  Let's hope for small, small, smalll...!

+1.3 = VRobb

Thanks again philip for the fun!

Bitcoin Difficulty:194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:202,147,273,119 (+4.06%)
Adjust time:After 1114 Blocks, About 7.8 days
Hashrate(?):1,376,118,241 GH/s

Block Generation Time(?):

1 block: 10.1 minutes

3 blocks: 30.4 minutes

6 blocks: 1.0 hours

Updated:6:40 (3.3 minutes ago)

my guess is

+1.1 = petahashminer


good luck all. ;D

i bet for slight increase  8)

+2.0 = testerman


let the guess begin.

+0.0 = HerbPean

Thanks Phil !

It's too early to guess but I don't want to forget this speculation thread. I also remember my only winning came from an early guess.
Estimated Next Difficulty:   201,886,287,698 (+3.93%)
Adjust time:   After 1109 Blocks, About 7.8 days

+3.9 = ingiltere

now open!!


-1.1% = philipma1957   if it hits I will roll it back in.


+0.0 = HerbPean

+1.1 = petahashminer


+2.0 = testerman

+3.9 = ingiltere

+3.5 = Lindin99

+2.5    =      Veves1

now open!!


-1.1% = philipma1957   if it hits I will roll it back in.


+0.0 = HerbPean

+1.1 = petahashminer

+1.3 = VRobb

+2.0 = testerman

+2.5 = Veves1

+3.5 = Lindin99

+3.9 = ingiltere

+1.2 = Psi 

+2.2 = Erumara

+2.3 = navigatrix

-1.0 = Cuidler

If the trend continues, we should end up around 0:

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-thumbnail.png

+3.2 = gnaoui

+1.0 = NeuroticFish

+1.8 = Biodom

Thanks!

now open!!

-1.1 = philipma1957   if it hits I will roll it back in.
-1.0 = Cuidler

+0.0 = HerbPean

+1.0 = NeuroticFish
+1.1 = petahashminer
+1.2 = Psi
+1.3 = VRobb

+1.8 = Biodom

+2.0 = testerman
+2.2 = Erumara
+2.3 = navigatrix
+2.5 = Veves1
+3.2 = gnaoui
+3.5 = Lindin99

+3.9 = ingiltere

+1.5 = adaseb

+4.2 = VirosaGITS

]
now open!!

-1.1 = philipma1957   if it hits I will roll it back in.
-1.0 = Cuidler

+0.0 = HerbPean

+1.0 = NeuroticFish
+1.1 = petahashminer
+1.2 = Psi
+1.3 = VRobb

+1.5 = adaseb

+1.8 = Biodom

+2.0 = testerman

+2.2 = Erumara
+2.3 = navigatrix
+2.5 = Veves1

+3.2 = gnaoui

+3.5 = Lindin99

+3.9 = ingiltere

+4.2 = VirosaGITS

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   200,876,391,728 (+3.41%) <<<<<<<< still way too high

Adjust time:   After 1051 Blocks, About 7.4 days <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< picks end at 516   716 lots of time yet to come  716 is endpoint


Hashrate(?):   1,377,547,330 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   21:30 (1.8 minutes ago)

+0.1 = talks_cheep

-0.9 = cpfreeplz

---

After the past few times I'd have to think that it's going to be down this time. I guess we'll see what happens. Thanks for running this awesome contest!!!

+8.1 = Brob12321

now open!!

-1.1 = philipma1957   if it hits I will roll it back in.
-1.0 = Cuidler
-0.9 = cpfreeplz

+0.0 = HerbPean
+0.1 = talks_cheep

+1.0 = NeuroticFish
+1.1 = petahashminer
+1.2 = Psi
+1.3 = VRobb

+1.5 = adaseb

+1.8 = Biodom

+2.0 = testerman

+2.2 = Erumara
+2.3 = navigatrix
+2.5 = Veves1

+3.2 = gnaoui

+3.5 = Lindin99

+3.9 = ingiltere

+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+8.1 = Brob12321


 really going to be difficult it this one comes true.(+8.1)  we are ½ way the real number is  just under zero so we need to do about 17% for the rest of the way to get this high that would be six days of 168 blocks


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   200,870,250,171 (+3.41%) to get this high we need  6.5 days of 154 blocks
Adjust time:   After 1037 Blocks, About 7.3 days
Hashrate(?):   1,391,726,757 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   23:10 (2.7 minutes ago)

I would say around +6.3% increase.

+3.7 for me

So another Day passes and the trend continues. Yesterday was -2.08% with 141 Blocks and Today 7 Hours in the period to date Run Rate is at -2%. Fingers crossed...

Can someone tell me the Block Number that Picks close at?


Rich

I think it closes when there are 716 blocks to go. Phil shifted the window a bit. Try looking at the 1st page, I expect it's there.

OK thanks, just getting brain in gear. It's just that I track how many Blocks we are into the Period for opening & closing of Picks, used to be open at 600 close at 1200. So this time we must be open at 900 close at 1300?


Rich

+3.3 = tertius993

Hi, if I am allowed to play, I would like to pick:

+1.9 = Mike8

Thank you

-0.6 = slastar

can i join the contest?

my registration date is

Date Registered:    April 07, 2014, 09:25:07 AM

+0.2 = albertamining

+2.1 = Kexkey

   No the account became active this April 10, 2016 was the first post.

  I will allow you to join the first  Contest in June.  As long as you post count gets to 30 by that time.

Best regards phil

now open!!

-1.1 = philipma1957   if it hits I will roll it back in.
-1.0 = Cuidler
-0.9 = cpfreeplz
-0.6 = slastar
+0.0 = HerbPean
+0.1 = talks_cheep

+1.0 = NeuroticFish
+1.1 = petahashminer
+1.2 = Psi
+1.3 = VRobb

+1.5 = adaseb

+1.8 = Biodom
+1.9 = Mike8
+2.0 = testerman
+2.1 = Kexkey
+2.2 = Erumara
+2.3 = navigatrix
+2.5 = Veves1

+3.2 = gnaoui
+3.3 = tertius993
+3.5 = Lindin99
+3.7 = Amph
+3.9 = ingiltere

+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+6.3 = jacobmayes94

+8.1 = Brob12321


 
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   201,184,300,080 (+3.57%) <<< still far too high.
Adjust time:   After 976 Blocks, About 6.8 days
Hashrate(?):   1,375,573,534 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:

+6.1 = fr4nkthetank


wubbadubalublub motherfuckas, btw go watch rick and morty that shit is gold :)

+0.2 = topiOleg

Maybe you should not increase the price when not hit, 0.4 BTC is worth one month of S7 mining!

ok thank u so much.  8)

now open!!

-1.1 = philipma1957   if it hits I will roll it back in.
-1.0 = Cuidler
-0.9 = cpfreeplz
-0.6 = slastar

+0.0 = HerbPean

+0.1 = talks_cheep
+0.2 = topiOleg

+1.0 = NeuroticFish
+1.1 = petahashminer
+1.2 = Psi
+1.3 = VRobb

+1.5 = adaseb

+1.8 = Biodom
+1.9 = Mike8
+2.0 = testerman
+2.1 = Kexkey
+2.2 = Erumara
+2.3 = navigatrix
+2.5 = Veves1

+3.2 = gnaoui
+3.3 = tertius993
+3.5 = Lindin99
+3.7 = Amph
+3.9 = ingiltere

+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+6.1 = fr4nkthetank

+6.3 = jacobmayes94

+8.1 = Brob12321


 
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   201,002,348,844 (+3.47%)

Adjust time:   After 966 Blocks, About 6.7 << >>days picks stop at 716

Hashrate(?):   1,380,554,927 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   10:45 (3.8 minutes ago)


@ topiOleg    

 0.40 BTC is the highest it ever reached  I am thinking it will be hit this time.

A REAL TIME DIFF NUMBER IS BELOW
https://blockchain.info/blocks

412314 (Main Chain)    2016-05-18 14:42:09     current block for this jump
411265 (Main Chain)   2016-05-11 05:37:45     first block  for this jump


THAT is   1050 blocks made  in 7 days 9 hours.

7 x 144 = 1008    
9 x    6 =     54

1062  would be 0%

so 1050/1062-1 =  (-1.1299%)   real time number  

block generation time is decreasing slightly, i think diff increase will be between 0 - +5 %

Hopefully someone get lucky, but so far most of the picks are far from real time number. But things might change before the difficulty adjustement is made, the short term variance (miners luck) in hashrate is pretty high.

+2.8 = Notlist3d

Thanks!

now open!!

-1.1 = philipma1957   if it hits I will roll it back in.
-1.0 = Cuidler
-0.9 = cpfreeplz
-0.6 = slastar

+0.0 = HerbPean

+0.1 = talks_cheep
+0.2 = topiOleg

+1.0 = NeuroticFish
+1.1 = petahashminer
+1.2 = Psi
+1.3 = VRobb

+1.5 = adaseb

+1.8 = Biodom
+1.9 = Mike8
+2.0 = testerman
+2.1 = Kexkey
+2.2 = Erumara
+2.3 = navigatrix
+2.5 = Veves1
+2.8 = Notlist3d
+3.2 = gnaoui
+3.3 = tertius993
+3.5 = Lindin99
+3.7 = Amph
+3.9 = ingiltere

+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+6.1 = fr4nkthetank

+6.3 = jacobmayes94

+8.1 = Brob12321


 
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   201,002,348,844 (+3.47%)

Adjust time:   After 966 Blocks, About 6.7 << >>days picks stop at 716

Hashrate(?):   1,380,554,927 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   10:45 (3.8 minutes ago)


@ topiOleg    

 0.40 BTC is the highest it ever reached  I am thinking it will be hit this time.

A REAL TIME DIFF NUMBER IS BELOW
https://blockchain.info/blocks

412314 (Main Chain)    2016-05-18 14:42:09     current block for this jump
411265 (Main Chain)   2016-05-11 05:37:45     first block  for this jump


THAT is   1050 blocks made  in 7 days 9 hours.

7 x 144 = 1008   
9 x    6 =     54

1062  would be 0%

so 1050/1062-1 =  (-1.1299%)   real time number 



 Yeah  I don't understand some of the picking strategy of the players.  This is a good prize about 185 usd.
Waiting  until we are at blocks 725- 750  lets you have a much better idea.  Picking at 1075 -1116   keeps you much more unlikely to hit.

Just look below and see that bitcoin wisdom is finally showing a lower number.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   200,068,663,301 (+2.99%)   <<<<<< closer to real number


Adjust time:   After 959 Blocks, About 6.7 days <<<<<<<< picks close at 716  about 2 days


Hashrate(?):   1,364,437,112 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   12:50 (1.9 minutes ago)


So to get to the point  picks close at  block 716  two days or so.  real  number is low under 0 

I hope we drop more.  I wonder if bitmaintech has started shipping batch 17 or 18 it was due to ship the 23rd.

+0.5 = indiemax   

thanks  ;D

+1.6 = wpt1wpt1


 ;D

now open!!

-1.1 = philipma1957   if it hits I will roll it back in.
-1.0 = Cuidler
-0.9 = cpfreeplz
-0.6 = slastar

+0.0 = HerbPean

+0.1 = talks_cheep
+0.2 = topiOleg
+0.5 = indiemax
+1.0= NeuroticFish
+1.1 = petahashminer
+1.2 = Psi
+1.3 = VRobb

+1.5 = adaseb
+1.6 = wpt1wpt1

+1.8 = Biodom
+1.9 = Mike8
+2.0 = testerman
+2.1 = Kexkey
+2.2 = Erumara
+2.3 = navigatrix
+2.5 = Veves1
+2.8 = Notlist3d
+3.2 = gnaoui
+3.3 = tertius993
+3.5 = Lindin99
+3.7 = Amph
+3.9 = ingiltere

+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+6.1 = fr4nkthetank

+6.3 = jacobmayes94

+8.1 = Brob12321


 

+2.9% = Mikestang

We lost the big peak thankfully, I'm thinking that was next gen tech being tested/burned it.  There's hundreds of PH out there still waiting to come online...

+3.0% = lolxxxx

My wife is fostering kittens, so I asked them for their guess instead of our cats. Here's what the kittens said:

-1.4% = edonkey

now open!!

-1.4% = edonkey  nice pick

-1.1 = philipma1957   if it hits I will roll it back in.
-1.0 = Cuidler
-0.9 = cpfreeplz
-0.6 = slastar

+0.0 = HerbPean

+0.1 = talks_cheep
+0.2 = topiOleg
+0.5 = indiemax
+1.0= NeuroticFish
+1.1 = petahashminer
+1.2 = Psi
+1.3 = VRobb

+1.5 = adaseb
+1.6 = wpt1wpt1

+1.8 = Biodom
+1.9 = Mike8
+2.0 = testerman
+2.1 = Kexkey
+2.2 = Erumara
+2.3 = navigatrix

+2.5 = Veves1

+2.8 = Notlist3d
+2.9 = Mikestang
+3.0 = lolxxxx

+3.2 = gnaoui
+3.3 = tertius993
+3.5 = Lindin99
+3.7 = Amph
+3.9 = ingiltere

+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+6.1 = fr4nkthetank

+6.3 = jacobmayes94

+8.1 = Brob12321


A REAL TIME DIFF NUMBER IS BELOW

https://blockchain.info/blocks

412351 (Main Chain)    2016-05-18 21:00:40     current block for this jump
411265 (Main Chain)   2016-05-11 05:37:45     first block  for this jump


so 1087 blocks made so far

time is   7 days 15 hours 10 min

7   x 144   = 1008
15 x 6       =     90
 1  x 1      =        1

total 1099 for 0%
 
so 1087/1099 -1  =   (-1.09%)

as time winds down that real number gets hard to lift ,but we could average  + 10 % from now to the end of the diff     which would get us over +4%

+1.7 = zebedee

Thank you

+5.5 = vapourminer

I think we should do a difficulty speculation thread for ETH. Pretty sure more people care about ETH difficulty now more then BTC difficulty.

now open!!

-1.4% = edonkey  nice pick

-1.1 = philipma1957   if it hits I will roll it back in.
-1.0 = Cuidler
-0.9 = cpfreeplz
-0.6 = slastar

+0.0 = HerbPean

+0.1 = talks_cheep
+0.2 = topiOleg
+0.5 = indiemax
+1.0= NeuroticFish
+1.1 = petahashminer
+1.2 = Psi
+1.3 = VRobb

+1.5 = adaseb
+1.6 = wpt1wpt1
+1.7 = zebedee
+1.8 = Biodom
+1.9 = Mike8
+2.0 = testerman
+2.1 = Kexkey
+2.2 = Erumara
+2.3 = navigatrix

+2.5 = Veves1

+2.8 = Notlist3d
+2.9 = Mikestang
+3.0 = lolxxxx

+3.2 = gnaoui
+3.3 = tertius993
+3.5 = Lindin99
+3.7 = Amph
+3.9 = ingiltere

+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = tss
+5.5 = vapourminer
+6.1 = fr4nkthetank

+6.3 = jacobmayes94

+8.1 = Brob12321



@ adaseb  


 I may end up doing that with eth coin as I can see ETH + BTC enjoying a mutual beneficial  partnership.

see how they can help each other

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1477094.0

+4.8 = tss

Confused are you tss?

tss has not posted since March of this year.

yes.. account got locked.  working on getting it unlocked and would still like to participate meanwhile if permitted.  if won, payout can go to the same address as before so there's no confusion as to who is in the contest.

Okay I will do this for you because I know the btc addy listed for tss  as it has been around for quite a while I just checked. It.

15zabRbzox2aFyEUpGxxz8Amge9JkCzi3A

https://blockchain.info/address/15zabRbzox2aFyEUpGxxz8Amge9JkCzi3A

 :) thanks,

on a side note.  this is an android wallet address..

any way i can use it to verify ownership of my account? since android, i cant sign a message with it.

So quite a big Day Yesterday with +6.25% and 153 Blocks. We are into the last Full Day before Picks Close, will make mine later Today.  :)


Rich

now open!!

-1.4% = edonkey  nice pick

-1.1 = philipma1957   if it hits I will roll it back in.
-1.0 = Cuidler
-0.9 = cpfreeplz
-0.6 = slastar

+0.0 = HerbPean

+0.1 = talks_cheep
+0.2 = topiOleg
+0.5 = indiemax
+1.0= NeuroticFish
+1.1 = petahashminer
+1.2 = Psi
+1.3 = VRobb

+1.5 = adaseb
+1.6 = wpt1wpt1
+1.7 = zebedee
+1.8 = Biodom
+1.9 = Mike8
+2.0 = testerman
+2.1 = Kexkey
+2.2 = Erumara
+2.3 = navigatrix

+2.5 = Veves1

+2.8 = Notlist3d
+2.9 = Mikestang
+3.0 = lolxxxx

+3.2 = gnaoui
+3.3 = tertius993
+3.5 = Lindin99
+3.7 = Amph
+3.9 = ingiltere

+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = tss        special circumstance allowed to pick under ' mybannedaccount '
+5.5 = vapourminer
+6.1 = fr4nkthetank

+6.3 = jacobmayes94

+8.1 = Brob12321

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   198,802,248,161 (+2.34%)

Adjust time:   After 882 Blocks, About 6.2 days   we end picks at 716


Hashrate(?):   1,337,320,382 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:


plenty of under the line hashing
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-thumbnail.png


@ RichBC  

  picks end at block 716    so that is 166 blocks from now  about 1 day Plus or minus 3 hours


or 21 to 27 hours left to pick

If you have the private key you can import it into blockchain wallet and then you use it to sign a message.

+2.4 = Valkir

Late into it but not so far from the actual diff  :P

Lets see what will happen!

me too!

I will neither confirm nor deny I may or may not have a certain amount of dao and eth.

and of course it may or may not be worth absolutely zero tomorrow. HOWEVER BTC certainty did not do so.


..  *cough* or so someone who may or may not be me said so.

+1.4 = blindminer

+2.6 = DanDan

+1.0 to 2.0 is full already so I try to guess the closest one.

now open!!

-1.4% = edonkey  nice pick

-1.1 = philipma1957   if it hits I will roll it back in.
-1.0 = Cuidler
-0.9 = cpfreeplz
-0.6 = slastar

+0.0 = HerbPean

+0.1 = talks_cheep
+0.2 = topiOleg
+0.5 = indiemax

+1.0= NeuroticFish
+1.1 = petahashminer
+1.2 = Psi
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = blindminer
+1.5 = adaseb
+1.6 = wpt1wpt1
+1.7 = zebedee
+1.8 = Biodom
+1.9 = Mike8
+2.0 = testerman
+2.1 = Kexkey
+2.2 = Erumara
+2.3 = navigatrix
+2.4 = Valkir
+2.5 = Veves1
+2.6 = DanDan

+2.8 = Notlist3d
+2.9 = Mikestang
+3.0 = lolxxxx

+3.2 = gnaoui
+3.3 = tertius993
+3.5 = Lindin99
+3.7 = Amph
+3.9 = ingiltere

+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = tss        special circumstance allowed to pick under ' mybannedaccount '
+5.5 = vapourminer
+6.1 = fr4nkthetank

+6.3 = jacobmayes94

+8.1 = Brob12321

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   198,116,376,823 (+1.99%)

Adjust time:   After 860 Blocks, About 6.1 days  We close at block 716

Hashrate(?):   1,322,760,559 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   7:55 (4.3 minutes ago)

+2.7 = Lituation

+0.9 = usenet

It's all about fun.

+4 please!

-0.4 = wlefever

-2.0 = pusttiu

A bit OT, phil please delete if you want.

Mycelium will sign messages for you on Android, easy!

-----BEGIN BITCOIN SIGNED MESSAGE-----
this is a signed message using mycelium
VRobb
-----BEGIN BITCOIN SIGNATURE-----
Version: Bitcoin-qt (1.0)
Address: 1Super7UXmiDaBQdrdJHa5ayiYtyKGpfq
G08jJCzqv0UnCwvUOzk2wONv1aKVL4CLXlOWkv1loGMlEkXB8lxWT8gBuqRmcopVHjA9aEYc10YsJ5x KiXicQ3g=
-----END BITCOIN SIGNATURE-----

tss is an okay guy if this helps him I will leave it up.

now open!!
-2.0 = pusttiu
-1.4% = edonkey  nice pick

-1.1 = philipma1957   if it hits I will roll it back in.
-1.0 = Cuidler
-0.9 = cpfreeplz
-0.6 = slastar
-0.4 = wlefever
+0.0 = HerbPean

+0.1 = talks_cheep
+0.2 = topiOleg
+0.5 = indiemax
+0.9 = usenet
+1.0 = NeuroticFish
+1.1 = petahashminer
+1.2 = Psi
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = blindminer
+1.5 = adaseb
+1.6 = wpt1wpt1
+1.7 = zebedee
+1.8 = Biodom
+1.9 = Mike8
+2.0 = testerman
+2.1 = Kexkey
+2.2 = Erumara
+2.3 = navigatrix
+2.4 = Valkir
+2.5 = Veves1
+2.6 = DanDan
+2.7 = Lituation
+2.8 = Notlist3d
+2.9 = Mikestang
+3.0 = lolxxxx
+3.2 = gnaoui
+3.3 = tertius993
+3.5 = Lindin99
+3.7 = Amph
+3.9 = ingiltere
+4.0 = Jamphone

+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = tss        special circumstance allowed to pick under ' mybannedaccount '
+5.5 = vapourminer
+6.1 = fr4nkthetank

+6.3 = jacobmayes94

+8.1 = Brob12321

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   197,632,168,646 (+1.74%)

Adjust time:   After 828 Blocks, About 5.8 days picks close at block 716 about 112
 more blocks

Hashrate(?):   1,374,584,262 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:

-1.6 = pogress

now open!!
-2.0 = pusttiu
-1.9 = RichBC
-1.6  = pogress
-1.4 = edonkey  nice pick

-1.1 = philipma1957   if it hits I will roll it back in.
-1.0 = Cuidler
-0.9 = cpfreeplz

-0.6 = slastar
-0.4 = wlefever

+0.0 = HerbPean

+0.1 = talks_cheep
+0.2 = topiOleg

+0.5 = indiemax

+0.9 = usenet
+1.0 = NeuroticFish
+1.1 = petahashminer
+1.2 = Psi
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = blindminer
+1.5 = adaseb
+1.6 = wpt1wpt1
+1.7 = zebedee
+1.8 = Biodom
+1.9 = Mike8
+2.0 = testerman
+2.1 = Kexkey
+2.2 = Erumara
+2.3 = navigatrix
+2.4 = Valkir
+2.5 = Veves1
+2.6 = DanDan
+2.7 = Lituation
+2.8 = Notlist3d
+2.9 = Mikestang
+3.0 = lolxxxx
+3.2 = gnaoui
+3.3 = tertius993
+3.5 = Lindin99
+3.7 = Amph
+3.9 = ingiltere
+4.0 = Jamphone

+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = tss        special circumstance allowed to pick under ' mybannedaccount '
+5.5 = vapourminer
+6.1 = fr4nkthetank

+6.3 = jacobmayes94

+8.1 = Brob12321



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   196,829,512,459 (+1.33%)

Adjust time:   After 806 Blocks, About 5.7 days  90 blocks left for picks


Hashrate(?):   1,337,737,319 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   16:55 (1.6 minutes ago)







real time number coming up

412462 (Main Chain)   2016-05-19 18:09:59   Current block this jump
411265 (Main Chain)   2016-05-11 05:37:45   First block this jump


1198 blocks so far in

8 days                8 x 144 = 1152                
12 hours             12 x 6   =    72
40 minutes           1 x 4   =      4

total for 0%                         1228


so 1198/1228 -1 =   (-2.44%)    yeah that is correct !    


you know everyone may be too high that would be pretty cool.


to anyone that has not picked   we have many numbers under 0 that may hit.

So someone seems to have thrown a switch and things have slowed. Here's hoping....

-1.9 = RichBC

+0.6 = tlhIlwI

now open!!


-2.0 = pusttiu
-1.9 = RichBC
-1.6  = pogress
-1.4 = edonkey  nice pick

-1.1 = philipma1957   if it hits I will roll it back in.
-1.0 = Cuidler
-0.9 = cpfreeplz

-0.6 = slastar
-0.4 = wlefever

+0.0 = HerbPean

+0.1 = talks_cheep
+0.2 = topiOleg

+0.5 = indiemax
+0.6 = tlhIlwI

+0.9 = usenet
+1.0 = NeuroticFish
+1.1 = petahashminer
+1.2 = Psi
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = blindminer
+1.5 = adaseb
+1.6 = wpt1wpt1
+1.7 = zebedee
+1.8 = Biodom
+1.9 = Mike8
+2.0 = testerman
+2.1 = Kexkey
+2.2 = Erumara
+2.3 = navigatrix
+2.4 = Valkir
+2.5 = Veves1
+2.6 = DanDan
+2.7 = Lituation
+2.8 = Notlist3d
+2.9 = Mikestang
+3.0 = lolxxxx

+3.2 = gnaoui
+3.3 = tertius993

+3.5 = Lindin99

+3.7 = Amph

+3.9 = ingiltere
+4.0 = Jamphone

+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+4.6 = tss        special circumstance allowed to pick under ' mybannedaccount '

+5.5 = vapourminer

+6.1 = fr4nkthetank

+6.3 = jacobmayes94

+8.1 = Brob12321



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   196,829,512,459 (+1.33%)

Adjust time:   After 806 Blocks, About 5.7 days  90 blocks left for picks


Hashrate(?):   1,337,737,319 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   16:55 (1.6 minutes ago)







real time number coming up

412462 (Main Chain)   2016-05-19 18:09:59   Current block this jump
411265 (Main Chain)   2016-05-11 05:37:45   First block this jump


1198 blocks so far in

8 days                8 x 144 = 1152                
12 hours             12 x 6   =    72
40 minutes           1 x 4   =      4

total for 0%                         1228


so 1198/1228 -1 =   (-2.44%)    yeah that is correct !    


you know everyone may be too high that would be pretty cool.


to anyone that has not picked   we have many numbers under 0 that may hit.

and to be clear the lowest pick at the moment is -2.0 

we are real time under -2.0

so -4.0 to -0.1   have a ton of empty slots.  also +0.3 , +0.4 , +0.7 , +0.8 , +3.1 ,+3.4 ,+3.6 ,+3.8

time left is about 11-15 hours

+0.7 = ezeminer


Thanks Phil!

+0.8 = Ab-Soul

-2.1 = ATguy

Ok, I would like to pick the lowest value so far, so I might have great shot to be at least closest to the next difficulty change, even if not winning the price !

now open!!

2.1  = ATguy
-2.0 = pusttiu
-1.9 = RichBC
-1.6 = pogress
-1.4 = edonkey  nice pick

-1.1 = philipma1957   if it hits I will roll it back in.
-1.0 = Cuidler
-0.9 = cpfreeplz

-0.6 = slastar
-0.4 = wlefever

+0.0 = HerbPean

+0.1 = talks_cheep
+0.2 = topiOleg

+0.4 = alh
+0.5 = indiemax
+0.6 = tlhIlwI
+0.7 = ezeminer
+0.8 = Ab-Soul
+0.9 = usenet
+1.0 = NeuroticFish
+1.1 = petahashminer
+1.2 = Psi
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = blindminer
+1.5 = adaseb
+1.6 = wpt1wpt1
+1.7 = zebedee
+1.8 = Biodom
+1.9 = Mike8
+2.0 = testerman
+2.1 = Kexkey
+2.2 = Erumara
+2.3 = navigatrix
+2.4 = Valkir
+2.5 = Veves1
+2.6 = DanDan
+2.7 = Lituation
+2.8 = Notlist3d
+2.9 = Mikestang
+3.0 = lolxxxx

+3.2 = gnaoui
+3.3 = tertius993

+3.5 = Lindin99

+3.7 = Amph

+3.9 = ingiltere
+4.0 = Jamphone

+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+4.6 = tss        special circumstance allowed to pick under ' mybannedaccount '

+5.5 = vapourminer

+6.1 = fr4nkthetank

+6.3 = jacobmayes94

+8.1 = Brob12321



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283

Estimated Next Difficulty:   197,404,438,752 (+1.62%)

Adjust time:   After 772 Blocks, About 5.4 days    56 blocks left to make your pick!!

Hashrate(?):   1,369,761,788 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours



 lowest pick is -2.1
to anyone that has not picked we have many numbers under 0 that may hit.  and we have 0.3 , 0.4

+0.4 = alh

We are currently at:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:    197,606,830,283 (+1.73%)
Adjust time:    After 745 Blocks, About 5.2 days
Hashrate(?):    1,368,446,767 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
   
Updated:    0:40 (6.5 minutes ago)

Final set of picks below:

-2.1  = ATguy
-2.0 = pusttiu
-1.9 = RichBC

-1.6 = pogress

-1.4 = edonkey  nice pick

-1.1 = philipma1957   if it hits I will roll it back in.
-1.0 = Cuidler
-0.9 = cpfreeplz

-0.6 = slastar
-0.4 = wlefever

+0.0 = HerbPean

+0.1 = talks_cheep
+0.2 = topiOleg

+0.4 = alh
+0.5 = indiemax
+0.6 = tlhIlwI
+0.7 = ezeminer
+0.8 = Ab-Soul
+0.9 = usenet
+1.0 = NeuroticFish
+1.1 = petahashminer
+1.2 = Psi
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = blindminer
+1.5 = adaseb
+1.6 = wpt1wpt1
+1.7 = zebedee
+1.8 = Biodom
+1.9 = Mike8
+2.0 = testerman
+2.1 = Kexkey
+2.2 = Erumara
+2.3 = navigatrix
+2.4 = Valkir
+2.5 = Veves1
+2.6 = DanDan
+2.7 = Lituation
+2.8 = Notlist3d
+2.9 = Mikestang
+3.0 = lolxxxx

+3.2 = gnaoui
+3.3 = tertius993

+3.5 = Lindin99

+3.7 = Amph

+3.9 = ingiltere
+4.0 = Jamphone

+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+4.6 = tss        special circumstance allowed to pick under ' mybannedaccount '

+5.5 = vapourminer

+6.1 = fr4nkthetank

+6.3 = jacobmayes94

+8.1 = Brob12321



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   197,012,919,862 (+1.42%)
Adjust time:   After 708 Blocks, About 5.0 days     we are closed now may the best pick win
Hashrate(?):   1,380,065,582 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.3 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   7:55 (5.3 minutes ago)


 lowest pick is -2.1

highest pick is +8.1


412572 (Main Chain)    2016-05-20 11:44:39    Current block this jump


411265 (Main Chain)   2016-05-11 05:37:45   First block this jump


that is 1308 made

9 days   = 9 x 144       1296

9 hours = 9 x  6              54

20 minutes  2 x 1             2

total =                1352 blocks to be at 0%


so 1308/1352-1 =    (-3.25%)   price is dropping at coinbase   443 last i looked

good luck to all

Looking for a real time number update.

 real time up dates

https://blockchain.info/blocks

412634 (Main Chain)   2016-05-20 22:16:23  current block this jump


411265 (Main Chain)   2016-05-11 05:37:45   first block this jump

this is
1370 blocks

time is

9 days             1296 blocks           
16 hours             96  blocks
40 minutes            4 blocks

that is 1396 blocks

so 1370/1396-1 =  (-1.86%)

we have just about 646 blocks to go

Hey phil could you do a real time update please.

  The Yankees and not winning much  the Mets are much better this year ;D


So to be nice to you  here goes it.

https://blockchain.info/blocks

412711  (Main Chain)      2016-05-21 13:19:41   current block

411265  (Main Chain)   2016-05-11 05:37:45   first block this jump

1447 blocks made so far

10 days     1440 blocks
  7 hours       42 blocks
40 min            4 blocks


total        1486  blocks for 0%

So 1447/1486-1 = {-2.62%}

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   193,252,896,989 (-0.52%)
Adjust time:   After 569 Blocks, About 4.1 days
Hashrate(?):   1,324,644,020 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 31.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   


At this moment we would carry over and next prize would be .5 btc!     the closest people are below

-2.1  = ATguy
-2.0 = pusttiu
-1.9 = RichBC

-1.6 = pogress

-1.4 = edonkey  nice pick

-1.1 = philipma1957   if it hits I will roll it back in.
-1.0 = Cuidler
-0.9 = cpfreeplz

-0.6 = slastar
-0.4 = wlefever

+0.0 = HerbPean

+0.1 = talks_cheep
+0.2 = topiOleg

So another interesting Difficulty Period. Yesterday was +3.47% with 149 Blocks and we have moved down a notch from a couple of Days ago and are currently tracking between -1.5% & -3% Period Run rate to Date, 15 Hours in Today is -2.5%. Bit disappointing about the price, but perhaps it will pick up again?


Rich

yeah  we are pretty stagnant  when you look at price drop and diff drop.


Worries me.  I have been studying ETH coin vs BTC coin   or use both as a miner.

All math favors using both not one or the other.

I run 2watts of eth coin  about 220mh  it earns 850 usd a month.  my power is nuts

You mean 2K watts I guess. This is great profit, even after deducting electricity cost. Its much more profitable than mining Bitcoin now. If you had more GPU rigs it would make sence only running these and turn off Bitcoin mining right now, or not? (I assume home miners usually have limited power up to 10K watts, at least I have)

Or why math favors using both and not one or the other when eth is so much more profitable?

I can tell you what I did. I sold my last gen miners and i'm glad i did, even though i sold them at lost. It was a great move and i already ROI'd everything i bought + covered the "losses" from selling the ASICs.

I kept the S1/S3/S5 to heat the place during the night or on cooler days, since i have the available electricity at the moment and no money to max my capacity on GPU.

Now the thing is, i think Phil has spare electricity with his nice and big back yard solar panel setup, so running the ASIC make sense versus downsizing to GPU if you have the electricity available.

I can only run 2kw at home, maybe only 1.4 during summer due to hot weather.
S7 are too loud, so they are in hosting, therefore ethereum was a no brainer.
A bit of a learning curve though.
I agree with phil, though, you have to do both if you are interested in crypto mining, etc.

My ASIC rigs take next to zero work. I have them in a solar array joint venture.
I provided rigs buysolar provided solar power. The deal is we split the coins.

So my power cost is zero. For 14 th . I provided 28 th.

The gpu gear needs baby sitting it takes work.  I mine them in house in New Jersey power is very high.

12.7 winter take 3 cents for heat so 9.7 cents.

16.7 add 1.3 for cooling so 18 cents in summer.

So I leave the asics alone no work no cost steady money.

I babysit the 5 pcs in house.
And I will sell them as gamer/miner gear in July or August.

So another negative Day yesterday with -2.08% and 141 Blocks. Today off to a brisk start and I feel some Hash has been added. Period to Date Run Rate, 8 Hours in, has now pulled up to -0.5% and is looking like it will go higher.  :(


Rich

 real time up dates

https://blockchain.info/blocks



412891 (Main Chain)   2016-05-22 12:45:06   current block this jump
                                    


411265 (Main Chain)   2016-05-11 05:37:45   first block this jump

this is :

1627 blocks

time is

11 days             1584 blocks            
 7 hours                42  blocks
10 minutes              1 blocks

that is 1627  blocks

so 1627/1627-1 =   (0.0)

389 blocks left   I suppose we can climb more say 2.5% for top end

we could drop down again so I think the range below all could win   it would be funny if it slips into the 0.3 slot.  Good luck to all.

-2.1  = ATguy
-2.0 = pusttiu
-1.9 = RichBC

-1.6 = pogress

-1.4 = edonkey  nice pick

-1.1 = philipma1957   if it hits I will roll it back in.
-1.0 = Cuidler
-0.9 = cpfreeplz

-0.6 = slastar
-0.4 = wlefever

+0.0 = HerbPean

+0.1 = talks_cheep
+0.2 = topiOleg

+0.4 = alh
+0.5 = indiemax
+0.6 = tlhIlwI
+0.7 = ezeminer
+0.8 = Ab-Soul
+0.9 = usenet
+1.0 = NeuroticFish
+1.1 = petahashminer
+1.2 = Psi
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = blindminer
+1.5 = adaseb
+1.6 = wpt1wpt1
+1.7 = zebedee
+1.8 = Biodom
+1.9 = Mike8
+2.0 = testerman
+2.1 = Kexkey
+2.2 = Erumara
+2.3 = navigatrix
+2.4 = Valkir
+2.5 = Veves1

so

Someone's kicked on the afterburners again... hash going through the roof!  :o

Lets wait big longer whether its just miners getting really lucky now or real added hashrate to the network. If the hash stays above the blue line for next 2 days, we could end up around +1% for the next difficulty. I would preffer falling bellow blue line tommorow though, suggesting the rise might mean just a good luck rather than added hashrate.

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-thumbnail.png

It is quite a spike though.  But as you say 2-3 days  will tell what it is.  It looks to me like the mystery 150-200ph has turned on again.

been doing it since  nov 2015.

Or S9 "testing"  ;D

It's also worth remembering that all we have seen is that in the last couple of Hours, Period to Date, we have passed through zero. Which is what you would expect to happen from time to time if no hash had been added or taken away this period......

Rich

The price is still falling. Maybe that will provide some downward pressure.

Although if Bitmain is already replacing S7s with S9s, and if they are twice as fast, and if this transition explains the recent increase in hash (yes, it's a lot of "ifs"), then the price can fall a lot more before it would slow Bitmain down.

 real time up dates

https://blockchain.info/blocks

412986 (Main Chain)   2016-05-23 01:48:23  current block this jump




411265 (Main Chain)   2016-05-11 05:37:45   first block this jump

this is :

1722 blocks

time is

11 days             1584 blocks            
 20 hours             120 blocks
10 minutes              1 blocks

that is 1705  blocks

so 1722/1705-1 =   (+0.997%)

294 blocks left  I suppose we can climb more say 2.5% for top end

we could drop down again so I think the range below all could win   it would be funny if it slips into the 0.3 slot.  Good luck to all.

-2.1  = ATguy
-2.0 = pusttiu
-1.9 = RichBC

-1.6 = pogress

-1.4 = edonkey  nice pick

-1.1 = philipma1957   if it hits I will roll it back in.
-1.0 = Cuidler
-0.9 = cpfreeplz

-0.6 = slastar
-0.4 = wlefever

+0.0 = HerbPean

+0.1 = talks_cheep
+0.2 = topiOleg

+0.4 = alh
+0.5 = indiemax
+0.6 = tlhIlwI
+0.7 = ezeminer
+0.8 = Ab-Soul
+0.9 = usenet
+1.0 = NeuroticFish
+1.1 = petahashminer
+1.2 = Psi
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = blindminer
+1.5 = adaseb
+1.6 = wpt1wpt1
+1.7 = zebedee
+1.8 = Biodom
+1.9 = Mike8
+2.0 = testerman
+2.1 = Kexkey
+2.2 = Erumara
+2.3 = navigatrix
+2.4 = Valkir
+2.5 = Veves1

so maybe we have a winner this time!

We seem to be headed upwards, Yesterday was a massive +27.28% with 184 Blocks and Today the trend continues. The Period to Date Run Rate, 7 Hours in, is now up to +1.32% but the rate is lifting all the time and if this new trend were to continue we could go as high as +3.5% However I suspect we will pull back at some point so more likely around +2%


Rich

Oh dear this is beginning to look ugly. Today's high rate, 11 Hours in, is staying very High. I think we could do over 200 Blocks Today and if the rate is maintained we could see +5% this period....  :(


Rich

Just saw a 2.07 KB block with weeks of daily 998KB blocks. Shows how the hash power is really up there.

variance ;D  not!


It has become really tough when you see just how much firepower they have under wraps.

Well I have my eth mining.

 

Yeah I don't really care since we at least have ETH mining.

havent posted here in a long while but the spike of 500 ph drew my attention.. we sit at over 1.9 exa atm.. this is the push to get all the s7 out after halving.. Thankful for eth.. but damn btc is corporate now.  Not to mention all the developers do is squabble.  i think this coin has some serious problems that will have to be addressed.. but not by the people that have been running it .. Needs some new blood .  

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png

Best Regards
d57heinz

That spike is insane. In a couple of days we've gone from a solid negative difficulty to something like 3% positive.

Looks like it will be another roll over...

Up to now I've stayed away from eth mining. Now I'm starting to think about it, if it's not already too late.

NEW power efficiency gears has been powering up for the last 2 days. there is no other explanation of that positive spike on network hash.

Yeah  I have the solar array and the deal at my friends office.

 So power cost is not an issue but this cheap power I have is about 11-13kwatts.  say 36th in avalon 6's just not much in btc.

2.7 btc a month  and the deal is spilt the coins so 1.35 btc  for me.

looks like we could get to 250 diff by the ½ ing.

204 this time 
215 around June 8 
226 June 21
237  July   4
248  July   18 the ½ ing

Did I say someone kicked on the afterburners?  Sorry, I meant ROCKET ENGINES!!!  :o :o :o

Sheesh, hashrate is just frazy right now...

Well we knew it was going to happen as the s-9 would replace the s-7. 

I think we hoped it would be next jump or the one after it.

The up side  it causes a crash and burn  keeping them off line starting   NOW!

My bet right now is that  all the guesses (this thread) may well prove to be too LOW. My un-scientific look at the graph lines on bitcoinwisdom, show nearly vertical Gray and Blue lines.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:    200,878,704,237 (+3.41%)
Adjust time:    After 172 Blocks, About 1.1 days
Hashrate(?):    1,659,188,046 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 9.3 minutes
3 blocks: 28.1 minutes
6 blocks: 56.1 minutes
   
Updated:    11:5 (2.4 minutes ago)

Looks like we'll know in about 24-25 hours.

Holy cow, the network instantaneous hash rate is off the charts!  Try as we might for a winner, I think this one is going to carry over again.  No one could have anticipated this massive spike!

god damn this network hashrate.  we can only hope it hits +6.1% :) :) :) :) (my pick lol)

real time calculation coming up



413128 (Main Chain)   2016-05-23 20:29:19   current block

411265 (Main Chain)   2016-05-11 05:37:45  first block of this jump

1864 blocks so far

12 days    1728 blocks
15 hours      90 blocks
30 min           3 blocks

1821 blocks = 0   so 1864/1821 - 1 = ( +2.36% )

we have gone 38 minutes with out a block

Difficulty of ETH scares me from going huge into mining it.  I will have a little bit of GPU's that keep going but difficulty is crazy - https://etherscan.io/charts/difficulty .   Currently though profit is pretty amazing I do agree, it allows even higher priced electricity to keep mining.

BTC i just want to see having and what it does.  It's really hard to speculate so will be interesting to watch,

I understand where your logic is coming from, but here's mine;
https://poloniex.com/exchange#btc_eth

Set to 1 month. You can see price is overall pretty much keeping up with the difficulty.

I'm always careful about putting all my eggs in one Basket so instead i split my Eth earning into more Eth earning and other things.

I agree it's keeping up with it pretty good.  I still just don't like the fact of how much hash is being added.   I feel more miners will come and it will continue, but hard to say where we will be in a month on difficulty.  Also commercial mining of it scares me ( http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-miners-ethereum/ ).   If there is big profit's seen (which there is) I would guess some bigger more commercial miners come along.  That article shows one good picture of a room of GPU's.

We had around 30 percent increase (approx) in a month, I don't know if that continues if price will continue to rise keeping up with it.  Don't get me wrong I hope it does and ETH does look good right now.

Right now you have to be foolish to put money into bitcoin mining, instead ETH is the way to mine. It scares the heck out of me as a miner how much the hashrate has skyrocketed. The huge mining farms are obviously DOUBLING/TRIPLING DOWN with their next gen mining gear probably in anticipation of the halving.

I think they could 2x the hash as I type.  Even with my cheap power I just can't get enough hash at low prices for it to work that well right now.

I boosted my eth coin one more card today I am now at 11 cards 5 pc's  about 265mh.

along with 28th in  256 gear.

Phil I get a lot of fun watching this contest.  How about a real time update.

Okay  one before I go to sleep.

413167 (Main Chain)   2016-05-24 03:13:21  The current block

411265 (Main Chain)   2016-05-11 05:37:45  The first block this jump


1903 made


12 days     1728
22 hours     132

1860  for 0%

1903/1860-1 = (+2.31%)

So we had a bit of a Pullback in the last few Hours Yesterday but still managed +25% with 180 Blocks. This Morning also off to a slowish start but the Daily Rate is climbing again. Period to Date Run Rate, 5 Hours in, is +2.7%

Period will end Today at around 17:00 I think we will land between +3.5% & +4%.



Rich

Who here thinks all that hashrate will come back online right after the difficulty adjusts in a few hours? No way that was variance.

instead of building miners configured as gamers to sell (nice strategy btw) I mine eth to offset the cost of the cards

just bought another sapphire nitro r9 390 so I can crossfire later when I rebuild the daily driver. tonight Ill grab a 380, probably a sapphire nitro r9 380. this one will eventually go into the HTPC which is way overdue for a rebuild (e8400/HD7750/vista machine).

ill set the new 390/380 up with risers in the basement to mine for now. have an old dell box with a seasonic 850 from back in the btc days. just gonna toss a SSD into it and it will ride again.

At the moment bitcoinwisdom is : showing +2.71%

with 54 blocks to go.


update:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   199,309,601,330  (+2.60%)
Adjust time:   After 37 Blocks, About 5.8 hours
Hashrate(?):   1,674,316,919 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.1 minutes
6 blocks: 56.2 minutes
Updated:   11:25 (5.0 minutes ago)


contenders below:

+1.6 = wpt1wpt1
+1.7 = zebedee
+1.8 = Biodom
+1.9 = Mike8
+2.0 = testerman
+2.1 = Kexkey
+2.2 = Erumara
+2.3 = navigatrix
+2.4 = Valkir
+2.5 = Veves1
+2.6 = DanDan
+2.7 = Lituation
+2.8 = Notlist3d
+2.9 = Mikestang
+3.0 = lolxxxx

+3.2 = gnaoui
+3.3 = tertius993

+3.5 = Lindin99

+3.7 = Amph



so 3.1, 3.4, 3.6  could hit and we have a rollover   we are at 2.6  good luck to those that are close.  37 blocks to go

The last 24-48 hours show F2Pool overpassing Antpool by 6-7% that's huge.

Also Bitfury getting some additional part but this might be luick.

i think they have had the s9 most of the time they sold the s7.. They have been one step ahead since the s1.. Maybe they are testing a new farm.  Or just turning on the rest of the farm now that all machines are swapped out.> we did have a decent lull in the action for a month or so.. And they got to sell more machines at a higher cost all the while they kept swapping and saving more and more on power.. Its so up in the air whats going on.. But in looking back at the big jump when s7 came they pushed it on f2pool aswell to hide it.. Id say its bitmain. Only because youd think bitfury would want to make some kind of presence known by now.  Sucks that we only can know after the fact..  LIke Phil said its best to be a shoe in both eth and btc. but not all in in either of them.. Both are taking a beatin atm.. Eth on price drop and diff rise and btc on the diff. 

Bitwisdom seems to be going down a tad:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:    198,989,385,899 (+2.44%)
Adjust time:    After 31 Blocks, About 4.8 hours
Hashrate(?):    1,671,940,273 GH/s

Value over this period was not the greatest move went from mid 450's to mid 440's.  So lost value on BTC - http://www.coindesk.com/price/

Wow I may with this for the first time in many year  ;D

At the moment bitcoinwisdom is : showing +2.33%

with 18 blocks to go.


update:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   198,782,536,160 (+2.33%)
Adjust time:   After 18 Blocks, About 2.8 hours
Hashrate(?):   1,655,171,512 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.3 minutes
3 blocks: 27.9 minutes
6 blocks: 55.8 minutes
Updated:   14:50 (5.1 minutes ago)






contenders below:


+1.8 = Biodom
+1.9 = Mike8
+2.0 = testerman
+2.1 = Kexkey
+2.2 = Erumara

+2.3 = navigatrix  the leader at the moment!


+2.4 = Valkir
+2.5 = Veves1
+2.6 = DanDan
+2.7 = Lituation
+2.8 = Notlist3d

"So, you are telling me...there is chance?" lol
https://youtu.be/KX5jNnDMfxA?t=21

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   198,868,505,149 (+2.38%)
Adjust time:   After 11 Blocks, About 1.7 hours
Hashrate(?):   1,683,123,081 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.3 minutes
3 blocks: 27.9 minutes
6 blocks: 55.7 minutes
Updated:


it has been 40 minutes since last block

https://blockchain.info/blocks
                                                   20:04 real time
413269 (Main Chain)   2016-05-24 19:21:04  last block
411265 (Main Chain)   2016-05-11 05:37:45 first block this jump

2005 so far

13 days      = 1872
15 hours     =   90
30 minutes =     3

1965 = 0%

2005/1965 -1 =               +2.03%  real time   so yeah!! there is a chance  

Bitcoin Difficulty:    194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:    199,104,813,190 (+2.50%)
Adjust time:    After 3 Blocks, About 27.9 minutes


3 blocks to go...

i am just exited now.

holy jesus one block !!!! and it has peaked up.

i think i lost :(

 So close!  :-\ 2 quicks blocks and I lose  :P

Woooow! My pick was on point. :D
May 24 2016   199,312,067,531   2.60%   1,426,731,353 GH/s

May 24 2016    199,312,067,531    2.60%    1,426,731,353 GH/s

+2.5 = Veves1
+2.6 = DanDan
+2.7 = Lituation


I think dandan wins, and i think he is from turkey, cause i remember his name from turkish forums. congratulations dude.

I now pass on the title of highest prize won in these picks (I hit the BTC0.3 one last year) to DanDan.

Congrats DanDan!

DanDan the man man!  Congrats!!  ;)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1484047.new#new  <<  new thread link





yeah it got real slow then real fast   so anyone from 1.9 to 2.6 had a shot in the last 8 blocks.

2.6 makes a perfect pick DanDan is the man

Please give me your btc addy so I can pay it


Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate



May 24 2016   199,312,067,531   2.60%   1,426,731,353 GH/s



May 11 2016   194,254,820,283   8.73%   1,390,530,167 GH/s
Apr 28 2016   178,659,257,773   -0.01%   1,278,892,782 GH/s
Apr 14 2016   178,678,307,672   7.09%   1,279,029,147 GH/s
Apr 01 2016   166,851,513,283   0.82%   1,194,369,655 GH/s
Mar 18 2016   165,496,835,118   4.46%   1,184,672,491 GH/s
Mar 04 2016   158,427,203,767   -3.10%   1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016   163,491,654,909   13.44%   1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016   120,033,340,651   5.89%   859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796   18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900   8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643   10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450   2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039   2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234   4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328   2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409   0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846   2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com

Well Done DanDan, great Pick in a very challenging difficulty period...


Rich

Well done DanDan.

Thank you so much for your good messages. It was very hard difficulty period, the next one will be harder.
@philipma1957 I sent you a PM. Thank you.

got it  once I go to coinbase pc I will send the 0.40 prize.  note i post the deposit here for transparency

philipma1957 - though it doesn't matter here, it will happen eventually.  You should be clear on how you're rounding this.  Suppose the change was 2.598% which bitcoin wisdom showed as 2.60% because it only shows 2dps - who wins, the chooser of 2.50% or 2.60%?

I think it should be based on unrounded percentage increase, so 2.50% would win.

Here it doesn't matter as the increase was 2.603% but let's get this clarified please.

Fair point. But I think. We did decide this in an earlier thread.  Bitcoin wisdom was final.  

And if bitcoin wisdom is not working we had a backup site.  Bitcoincharts

But it is a fair point.

We have runabout 35 or 40 of these.

I will check to see if my memory is correct.



BTW the prize is paid:

 https://blockchain.info/tx/038f41c9c69a8dd4ea636f80bb5da3e12f35da581b04183c2a0286737f33fbdf


new thread

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1484047.0


locking this and we will discuss the rounding issue in next thread.