Bitcoin Forum

Every day there is news about bitcoin reaching new heights. This is a sure sign we are bubbling.

I predict: once this news bellows will dwindle we will crash


http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-57571732-93/bitcoin-virtual-currency-hits-record-high-after-exchange-deal/
http://www.theverge.com/2013/2/28/4039042/bitcoin-value-reaches-new-high-against-us-dollar
http://arstechnica.com/business/2013/02/bitcoin-reaches-an-all-time-trading-high-of-over-33/

http://thenextweb.com/insider/2013/02/28/bitcoin-virtual-currency-stages-epic-comeback-hits-new-all-time-high-of-32/
http://mashable.com/2013/02/22/bitcoin-trading-at-30/
http://qz.com/56029/bitcoin-is-trading-at-a-record-high/

If we are then it's just starting.

Those huge dumps would, in the past, cause either speculators to race to the bottom or at least a significant stall in price rises. They are doing absolutely nothing to the market at the moment.

The true value that bitcoin holds and the possibilities of its future uses are starting to be realized by more than just a few select individuals. I have had random people at the bar ask me what I do, and respond, "oh yeah, I've heard of that bitcoin thing." And they usual say it with intrigue. We're not at critical mass, but we're approaching it. And if it is reached, bitcoin will be the investment of all our lives. I don't recommend selling unless you are a day trader.

I hope you are right. I feel like that, too, but with us coinheads you never know... ;)

yeah, that impressed me, too.

Posting in another "Because of X then bubble".

Though, to be honest, this one isn't even that creative.  I shall spot you a few free ones that may lead to more interesting conversation:

McCorvic is posting more than once a day, therefore bubble.

The price of bitcoin is almost to $37, which is a prime number, therefore bubble.

My shoe has become untied, therefore bubble.

My mom let me on the computer again, therefore bubble.

Feel free to use any of the above.  Any more will cost you some extra BTC therefore bubble

+1

JABT

(just another bubble thread)

'Bubble' might not be accurate, since we don't have the massive upward spikes  ($4+ the same hour) that we had in early June 2011.

Very Short-term: We have had several dramatic, 'healthy' corrections.
Medium-term: We are way over-due for a (temporary) big dive, and the longer it's put off, then the more massive it will be.

Ah man, you were so close to actually being right and then you got to that last sentence...

Great, I'm still a Bit_Happy.   :D

On the surface it looks like a bubble, but I don't think it is yet, theres a lot of room for higher prices, we're still in the same channel we were in before the 2011 bubble even started!

I'm seeing the signs of a bubble in the making. I think we're in the beginning or in the middle of a big bubble. Current price isn't too overpriced yet though. There is also the possibility that massive developments will happen in the Bitcoin world this spring and later this year which means that the actual growth of the Bitcoin economy might catch up with the price. That means a "massive dive" might not even happen. It depends on how overpriced we become relative to how the economy is growing.

It might seem like everyone is jumping on the Bitcoin bandwagon right now, but that's simply not true. No one that I've talked to in real life even knew that Bitcoin existed before I mentioned it. No institutional investors are involved in Bitcoin yet. The real bubble will happen when the big investors start piling money into Bitcoin ventures, many of which will ultimately fail, but in the meantime, whoever is holding bitcoins will reap massive rewards. Of course, short-term corrections will happen along the way. But the big picture looks pretty good.

so 9 consecutive weekly green candles (>2 months) is perfectly normal and sustainable?

Sure. 90, meeehhhh. But 9? Sure.

And I like how you even went with weekly candles.  You just zoomed out until you found a metric you didn't like and decided, "Yup! There's mah proofs!"  Way to cherry pick.

what, 4 green yearly candles is not sustainable no :)

OP is wrong,

That "indicator" of news stopping that will crash the price is a LAGGING indicator.

Price will fall before that happens.

op did not say stop but dwindle = decrease

I think there are a couple of reasons that could lead to a decrease in price:

• MtGox does not support shorting (so negative feeling about the market may not be fully reflected in the price; more prone to air pockets)
• regardless of the enthusiasm of people, the practical use of Bitcoin is still rather limited (exchanges not widespread, economy is still relatively small); people that get into the game now will also realise this later on, just like the one's in 2011
• it's a small market; if buying goes on like this, at some point the bids will more or less vanish leading to a spike. It takes more than in 2011 but eventually we would get there. After the spike, there will be some form of price collapse

Herd mentality does not vanish with a couple of millennia of 'civilisation'. It will be the same this time (and I will be waiting for the opportunity to buy cheap). Don't worry, you can get my BTC at $78 a piece currently  :-*

thanks for projecting motives. i really appreciate the fair and open discussion. when did you lose so much respect for me that you can't even take a single one of my points seriously?

but anyway,

say i did exactly what you said. say i'm cherry-picking. JUST SAY --

you still need to account for it. every scale is valid and price movement patterns appear on every scale. the fact that we haven't seen a weekly-sized correction in 9 consecutive weeks is a big deal. and if you don't think it is, you don't know enough about markets. screw that, you don't know enough about historical bitcoin price data. let me put this into perspective. the only time ever that there have been 9 or more consecutive green weekly candles was during the run-up to the pirate bubble. this is not 'normal', and it's not necessarily bearish, but you didn't even respond to the damn point.

also, i'm pretty damn close to ignoring you, which would make you the first person to ever have that honor. you side-step every single point i make in every single thread, all the while treating me like im the most worthless poster on this forum. that's not discussion, and you need to step off.

edit:

btw, this is the problem:


"right" and "what i already believe" are not always equivalent. watch out for that.

Not a bubble, it's a revolution.

http://i.stack.imgur.com/8jllR.jpg

My point is the "decrease" is also a lagging indicator. Decrease is a subset of absolute stop. If it were to stop it would be at "zero" meaning it has decreased as far as it could.

this. well-said. hold on to your coins.

Value of bitcoin is at least 95% derived from it's function as a store-of-value. I think this needs to come first. Only when we reach some sort of an equilibrium there will the world economy start using "purely bitcoin". Of course in the meantime bit-pay, sr et al thrive on the transactional features of bitcoin. They use it to transfer fiat, though. buyer acquires bitcoin -> bitcoin is transferred -> seller sells bitcoin. To fullfill that function you don't need a price of $35, 0.25 USD/BTC would suffice for that function. That would require the hoarders to release their coins of course (which they don't do specifically because they use them as a store-of-value).

On another note: I don't understand the concepts of "overpriced" or "fair price". The price is made at the market and that's the current fair price. Everyone agrees on that, otherwise there would be a trade and therefore a price-move.

absolutely :-) NP  (still very cheap bitcoins, in even short term 1-3 years)

The myth of "fair price" is why so many continue to be wowed by exponential network-based growth.

So, a revolutionary application of cryptography that is extremely useful as "internet money" is perfectly normal? Happens every other year? Guess not. Prepare for another green candle everytime politicians or fed chairmen make a decision regarding monetary policy or taxes. Expect a green candle every time a hard-working African pays outrageous fees to wire home money to his loved ones. Expect a green candle everytime a banker decides to give out an interest-bearing loan and creates money out of thin air. Excpect a green candle every time a consumer at the gas station figures out not gas has become more expensive, but his money has become worth less. Hell, expect a whole christmas tree of green candles!

I think Odalv is correct.

good post. but price still needs to correct. that's all im sayin.

A "correction" (there has been some debate over the definition, maybe better say "pullback") of up to 30% wouldn't surprise me. We haven't seen a real selling panic in a long time and I don't see a reason it can't happen. Just because it didn't happen on the last 6 dumps doesn't mean it can't.

However I agree with many that the market is much more prudent nowadays. Also: currently there is not much in the sense of automatically triggering sells (like bitcoinica forced liquidation) currently effective (true?). People might have some stop-loss orders somewhere, I don't deny that, but most of the leveraged trading happens through derivatives (futures, options) nowadays and I'm not sure how it's handled exactly, but I don't think liquidation of a leveraged short position in bitcoin futures on platforms like icbit.se for example would result in a real market sell.

Can anyone more knowledgable than me shed some light?

the thing is: nobody ain't looking at weekly candles