bubbling up because media talking of record high

[smoothie]

OP is wrong,

That "indicator" of news stopping that will crash the price is a LAGGING indicator.

Price will fall before that happens.

op did not say stop but dwindle = decrease

My point is the "decrease" is also a lagging indicator. Decrease is a subset of absolute stop. If it were to stop it would be at "zero" meaning it has decreased as far as it could.

[molecular]

The true value that bitcoin holds and the possibilities of its future uses are starting to be realized by more than just a few select individuals. I have had random people at the bar ask me what I do, and respond, "oh yeah, I've heard of that bitcoin thing." And they usual say it with intrigue. We're not at critical mass, but we're approaching it. And if it is reached, bitcoin will be the investment of all our lives. I don't recommend selling unless you are a day trader.

this. well-said. hold on to your coins.

[molecular]

I'm seeing the signs of a bubble in the making. I think we're in the beginning or in the middle of a big bubble. Current price isn't too overpriced yet though. There is also the possibility that massive developments will happen in the Bitcoin world this spring and later this year which means that the actual growth of the Bitcoin economy might catch up with the price. That means a "massive dive" might not even happen. It depends on how overpriced we become relative to how the economy is growing.

Value of bitcoin is at least 95% derived from it's function as a store-of-value. I think this needs to come first. Only when we reach some sort of an equilibrium there will the world economy start using "purely bitcoin". Of course in the meantime bit-pay, sr et al thrive on the transactional features of bitcoin. They use it to transfer fiat, though. buyer acquires bitcoin -> bitcoin is transferred -> seller sells bitcoin. To fullfill that function you don't need a price of $35, 0.25 USD/BTC would suffice for that function. That would require the hoarders to release their coins of course (which they don't do specifically because they use them as a store-of-value).

On another note: I don't understand the concepts of "overpriced" or "fair price". The price is made at the market and that's the current fair price. Everyone agrees on that, otherwise there would be a trade and therefore a price-move.

[Odalv]

'Bubble' might not be accurate, since we don't have the massive upward spikes  ($4+ the same hour) that we had in early June 2011.

Very Short-term: We have had several dramatic, 'healthy' corrections.
Medium-term: We are way over-due for a (temporary) big dive, and the longer it's put off, then the more massive it will be.

Ah man, you were so close to actually being right and then you got to that last sentence...

so 9 consecutive weekly green candles (>2 months) is perfectly normal and sustainable?

absolutely :-) NP  (still very cheap bitcoins, in even short term 1-3 years)

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

The myth of "fair price" is why so many continue to be wowed by exponential network-based growth.

[molecular]

'Bubble' might not be accurate, since we don't have the massive upward spikes  ($4+ the same hour) that we had in early June 2011.

Very Short-term: We have had several dramatic, 'healthy' corrections.
Medium-term: We are way over-due for a (temporary) big dive, and the longer it's put off, then the more massive it will be.

Ah man, you were so close to actually being right and then you got to that last sentence...

so 9 consecutive weekly green candles (>2 months) is perfectly normal and sustainable?

absolutely :-) NP  (still very cheap bitcoins, in even short term 1-3 years)

So, a revolutionary application of cryptography that is extremely useful as "internet money" is perfectly normal? Happens every other year? Guess not. Prepare for another green candle everytime politicians or fed chairmen make a decision regarding monetary policy or taxes. Expect a green candle every time a hard-working African pays outrageous fees to wire home money to his loved ones. Expect a green candle everytime a banker decides to give out an interest-bearing loan and creates money out of thin air. Excpect a green candle every time a consumer at the gas station figures out not gas has become more expensive, but his money has become worth less. Hell, expect a whole christmas tree of green candles!

I think Odalv is correct.

[arepo]

'Bubble' might not be accurate, since we don't have the massive upward spikes  ($4+ the same hour) that we had in early June 2011.

Very Short-term: We have had several dramatic, 'healthy' corrections.
Medium-term: We are way over-due for a (temporary) big dive, and the longer it's put off, then the more massive it will be.

Ah man, you were so close to actually being right and then you got to that last sentence...

so 9 consecutive weekly green candles (>2 months) is perfectly normal and sustainable?

absolutely :-) NP  (still very cheap bitcoins, in even short term 1-3 years)

So, a revolutionary application of cryptography that is extremely useful as "internet money" is perfectly normal? Happens every other year? Guess not. Prepare for another green candle everytime politicians or fed chairmen make a decision regarding monetary policy or taxes. Expect a green candle every time a hard-working African pays outrageous fees to wire home money to his loved ones. Expect a green candle everytime a banker decides to give out an interest-bearing loan and creates money out of thin air. Excpect a green candle every time a consumer at the gas station figures out not gas has become more expensive, but his money has become worth less. Hell, expect a whole christmas tree of green candles!

I think Odalv is correct.

good post. but price still needs to correct. that's all im sayin.

[molecular]

'Bubble' might not be accurate, since we don't have the massive upward spikes  ($4+ the same hour) that we had in early June 2011.

Very Short-term: We have had several dramatic, 'healthy' corrections.
Medium-term: We are way over-due for a (temporary) big dive, and the longer it's put off, then the more massive it will be.

Ah man, you were so close to actually being right and then you got to that last sentence...

so 9 consecutive weekly green candles (>2 months) is perfectly normal and sustainable?

absolutely :-) NP  (still very cheap bitcoins, in even short term 1-3 years)

So, a revolutionary application of cryptography that is extremely useful as "internet money" is perfectly normal? Happens every other year? Guess not. Prepare for another green candle everytime politicians or fed chairmen make a decision regarding monetary policy or taxes. Expect a green candle every time a hard-working African pays outrageous fees to wire home money to his loved ones. Expect a green candle everytime a banker decides to give out an interest-bearing loan and creates money out of thin air. Excpect a green candle every time a consumer at the gas station figures out not gas has become more expensive, but his money has become worth less. Hell, expect a whole christmas tree of green candles!

I think Odalv is correct.

good post. but price still needs to correct. that's all im sayin.

A "correction" (there has been some debate over the definition, maybe better say "pullback") of up to 30% wouldn't surprise me. We haven't seen a real selling panic in a long time and I don't see a reason it can't happen. Just because it didn't happen on the last 6 dumps doesn't mean it can't.

However I agree with many that the market is much more prudent nowadays. Also: currently there is not much in the sense of automatically triggering sells (like bitcoinica forced liquidation) currently effective (true?). People might have some stop-loss orders somewhere, I don't deny that, but most of the leveraged trading happens through derivatives (futures, options) nowadays and I'm not sure how it's handled exactly, but I don't think liquidation of a leveraged short position in bitcoin futures on platforms like icbit.se for example would result in a real market sell.

Can anyone more knowledgable than me shed some light?

[phelix]

'Bubble' might not be accurate, since we don't have the massive upward spikes  ($4+ the same hour) that we had in early June 2011.

Very Short-term: We have had several dramatic, 'healthy' corrections.
Medium-term: We are way over-due for a (temporary) big dive, and the longer it's put off, then the more massive it will be.

Ah man, you were so close to actually being right and then you got to that last sentence...

so 9 consecutive weekly green candles (>2 months) is perfectly normal and sustainable?

the thing is: nobody ain't looking at weekly candles