Bitcoin Forum

Look familiar?

https://i.imgur.com/4dhQMDS.png

thank you I was looking all over for something that resembled this..So glad I didnt sell at $38. Gta keep reminding myself Im in this to win it, and Im not gna budge until i see it breach that $50 mark

Yep, let them try though, my hands are "stronger".

"in this to win it" means selling a little above $50?

I think it's rational to think fair-value is single-digits (or less) or triple-digits (or more). There aren't really any convincing long-term scenarios that produce a stable middle ground.

As I've said before, the exchange rate is not stable anywhere between $10 and $500. So pick your long-term viewpoint, and stick with it.

Its almost identical...

https://i.imgur.com/G7GDEz6.png

If you look at the price over the course of bitcoins lifetime, on a log scale, it seems to be leveling out. I would say it looks like the future price will level out somewhere between 50 and 300 USD, roughly.

This is very likely not like what we've seen on the way up, and I'm pretty sure this signals the peak of the bubble.  The only real question at this point is how low we'll go.  My guess of single digits in April of this year might not be so crazy afterall.

*yawn*

Today has been a blasty blast  :D

I think a bit above silver is a decent place to correct to for a while. Bitcoin has had it's historical struggles with 1, 5, and 10 dollar parity. It's history at price points above that is much more fragmented though. If the market corrects downwards some time around $20 or $30, and bitcoin overlaps occasionally at an unreasonably low price with silver at an unreasonably high price things would be good for both.

Why would there be any correlation between the price of an ounce of silver and the price of a bitcoin?

No important reason, but it makes a nice psychological one. Kind of like how five dollars sufficed so long as a happy middle to sit on after the last crash.

Interpreting Proudhon's Enigmatic But Startlingly Accurate Investing Advice 101
They should teach this at every business school.

Repeat a million times: past price action does not guarantee future price movement.

The same chart pattern at different price level can mean different things.

And here:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=2-hour&c=1&s=2011-06-01&e=2011-06-20&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

and here:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=&i=Hourly&c=1&s=2012-08-17&e=2012-08-20&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=RSI&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

but actually also here:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=Hourly&c=1&s=2013-01-24&e=2013-01-31&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&



And the current one - for comparison:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=10&i=Hourly&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

One interesting point - in all these cases, and your too, the dip started around Thursday (Thursday or night before or after:)

Unfortunately - pretty inconclusive.

Yes, that was a correction, prior to the big, fun run-up to $49.
Does this look familiar?   :o

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/3677674/notbubble2.gif

The most similarity is between the current run up:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=180&i=Daily&c=1&s=2012-12-01&e=2013-03-09&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

it starts from around 12 and gets to 49 - that is 4x growth.

and the one to 15:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=&i=Daily&c=1&s=2012-05-01&e=2012-09-01&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

starts from around 5 and gets to 15 - 3x growth.

The first crash from 15 gets to 10 starts between Thursday and Friday - that is half of the growth and has 220K volume, the second three days later gets to 7.5 that is half of the rest of the growth.
We had just one crash from 49 to 33, started between Wednesday and Thursday, with a bit less then half of the growth and less volume (only 150K).

And that still does not mean anything.

There is a big difference between now and that run-up to 15. That was the height of the Pirate mania, and the sudden downward spike was when Pirate announced retirement. There was much uncertainty about how things would shake out.

I'm convinced we being played by someone with around 500K or more BTC. While I sold out early well before the 20's I think we could see mid $200's before the cracks start to show, and a crash to single digits. (Unless we see some early BTC tycoon dump and blow this market "player's" plan)  at the end of the day ultimately wealth in BTC is only created my diversity in adoption and economy, so this cycle will continue for years until we have reached a maximum adoption rate. 

Inserting a wish of good luck to everybody waiting for single digits!

In 2011, this is the same we have wished to people waiting for sub-$1 bitcoins. Good luck waiting! Don't die of old age in the process.

CHOO-CHOO