Bitcoin Forum

It takes lots of confidence to buy in this market. Speculation: those who are buying in the past few weeks know something most of us here do not know yet. Possibly a big deal / series of deals being prepared behind the curtains. Bitcoincard, coinlabs, etc. - what are they up to?

According to Vladimir this is the truth. He won't say just what it is though.

there are a lot of people being introduced to bitcoin at the moment who don't have much choice but to buy now - there's no signs of bitcoins dramatically dropping in value.

Here's a sign...

http://i47.tinypic.com/25sygcj.png

When's it gonna happen?!

Thats not a sign. Thats a chart with an inappropriate scale for the y-axis that actually doesn't show anything.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/U.S.-National-Debt.gif

Surely this is a bubble and will pop soon enough. It will go away soon!

u need to adjust that for inflation,,,

All we need is bigger suckers  than the previous to buy and we're good.

Trace Mayer is trying hard to get those in. I hope he succeeds as long as possible

This is what proudhon is actually telling us.
https://i.imgur.com/OzaP3M4.png?1

When should I dump them proudhon?

Your chart only goes up too 200? I think you need to expand it a bit.

Here's another to show how ridiculous the situation is right now.

http://i47.tinypic.com/o0uib6.png

You should expand the X axis to like 2005.
It will make it look more scary.

as a professional value trader that worked at JP Morgan Chase I know that exponential rises are usually accompied with strong fundamentals that support it

so just be a believer proudhon, it's all we believers ask of you

join us

Speculation: Those who do not know yet are buying from those who knew this since the past few weeks.

 :o

Hey, I have some silver - do you know if JP Morgan are ever going to let the price rise? :)

Just need some balls. I think most people will hold on to their BTCs for a looong time.

Prove you worked for JP Morgan. Scan some proof and show us.

There is a button "log scale" on the upper right side. click it to get a proper scaling of the y-axis.

Wopwop's a bit of a troll, check their post history.

The current price increase is indeed ridiculous, will see how that goes.

Look about right

There have been *much* crazier weeks in 2010/2011 than we have today. Price is still not growing as fast as it has during previous years, actually it has slowed down a lot.

yeah :D

Why should anyone consider log-scale the proper scale?  The price has moved sharply up over a short period of time, and the price history looks less crazy when viewed in log-scale, but surely that can't be the reason to expect growth to be sustainable at this rate.  

Just received this from a friend. It could come handy when the parabolic ascent ends in a vertical drop:

Timothy 6:10
But the root of all these evils is the love of money, and there are some who have desired it and have erred from the faith and have brought themselves many miseries.

Because its the proper scale for these things. Ask your math teacher tomorrow in school.

cyberchrist brought us bitcoin

Ok, still looks like a bubble in log-scale.

I'm more worried about the sellers. What do THEY know? Why else would anyone let go of their coins so cheaply? It's crazy.

Yes.

Because this looks like a crazy bubble about to pop.

OK, it looks like a bubble, but it quacks like a bubble?

Actually, I think most sellers are selling because they need the fiat, or because they have concluded they're overinvested in BTC. Both are extremely good reasons to sell.

When we are over 300 will you keep saying the bubble is about to pop?

he'll probably convert to a believer by then

we gotta bring him the salvation if cyberchrist cant

I think the bubble will reach at least $250, possibly even a much higher price. This does not make it not a bubble.

bitcoin's price is based on fundamentals such as high market value in a tight economy

Not necessarily. Look into the user base growth and it partially explains this. The rest is all the greater fool theory and the bubble mentality.

If I were you i'd prefer the log scale. That way you look 'less wrong' about your absurd top calls since $20  ;D

Just because there is a giant rise in coin value doesn't mean it's a bubble. Bitcoins may be appreciating in value to where they are supposed to be. So instead of a pop, we may start to see stable value in the future...let's hope it continues to rise drastically until then :)

Surely this logic could justify any purchase of any asset no matter how over valued providing the price is rising.

Choices

1) I know something other people don't, therefore I will buy as it will go up due to said information.
2) I know nothing but the price is rising, therefore other market participants are acting on choice one. I should "invest" like they are due to them making the correct decision. I will buy also.

Proudhon is not calling single digits anywhere in this thread, therefore:

time to short.

sometimes I wonder if just because a bunch of nerds are not available to sell their fantasy coins at any price means that their coins are worth infinite, then I look at USD/euro/yen macro scene, and I realize that is just because a division by zero.

This is bad IMO. If normal people can not buy enough coin and any small amount of buy just push the price up due to liquidity problem, they will lose the interest of this thing. Only small speculators are interested in such kind of fast move, big investors have huge risk buying in such kind of illiquid market

And this might just proved that how much cheap money there are out there

+1 Greed is killing BTC at the moment. There must be many people with hundreds, thousands or more BTC bought/mined for nearly nothing. They are hoarding them, the actual trade volume is very low. If none of these early adopters cash out now, then the price will never stabilize.

If it is not stable (and it will need to be stable for a long time before trust is restored), then it won't be used as currency, which was the entire idea. Instead it is treated as an collectible item, an investment, actually empowering fiat money.
Nobody is checking BTC acceptance rates and trade volumes, everybody is looking at the USD value.

I am not saying it might not rise more, nobody knows. But as a merchant with tangible goods that cost real money, you'd be crazy to accept BTC when it is so volatile and as a consumer you'd be crazy to spend it as the fear of buyer remorse is larger than the fear of having worthless bits and bytes, because, hey, it can only go up, right!

^
QFT! No price stability === no adoption. BTC needs stability more then anything.

Those "never sell" theories are total BS. Everyone has a selling point. For some it simply is much higher up than where we are now. We're in the process of price discovery and we will overshoot for sure, but the point is that it won't just go up forever. The expectations of many holders are just way beyond the current price.

Smart and automated traders (and those that have enough to influence the price) will have sold. re-bought, re-sold etc etc. So I wonder how many BTC has really been traded and bi which percentage of the user-base.
But even if these were all different one-time trades, it still means that from the current supply of 11 million BTC over 80% has never left the wallet it was stored in. This means it is a collectible item, not a currency and with volatility, this will not change.

New crypto currencies are popping up fast, but we still need one (could be BTC) that will actually be used as a fairly stable currency. Until that moment these are investment bubbles. As said, that does not mean it won't go up. House prices did for a long time and these were backed by a basic need to live somewhere and cost of materials. But it was the greed of the professional gamblers (and the de-regulation of banking laws, does that ring a bell?) that made people lose their life savings and their houses.

But yes, crazy times indeed!

...Yeah, by traders.

u need to adjust that for inflation,,,
[/quote]

Likewise Bitcoin should be adjusted for deflation.

Or, those who are buying don't know something the rest of us know, like this is probably a bubble.

Or maybe it is people who want to actually use bitcoins, like buying something or sending money to a distant person or moving money across national boundaries without being constrained by capital controls.

That is not a very good sign, it could mean we are going back to 20, or we could just level off around 200, or it could keep going up to 5000 and drop back down to 2000. Where does your sign say it will end up?

What is so surprising? It is quite obvious the price will continue to rise, so even if it rises only $3, that is still $3 profit. When BTC hit $100 I remember seeing people on here saying they can't believe people are still buying, yet when the price hits $200 (probably not long now) then those 'crazy' people who bought at $100 have doubled their profits.

Did the move from 5 to 10 look like a bubble? Maybe while it was happening it looked like a bubble, but a few months later when the price remained close to 10 it no longer looked like a bubble, just a move from the old price to the new price. If the price levels out for a few months we will then know this is not a bubble, it is hard to tell while we are in the midst of the run up whether this price will be sustained.

Proudhon is a troll. I wouldn't waste my time responding to him.

You can correct for monetary inflation, for example see https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=147298.0

Corrected plot will show even sharper rise in actual value of coins.

With all these bubble rumors, i think most newbuyers are just gambling something they can afford to loose, hoping to became rich/make some bucks some day.

How does your theory account for the growth in BitPay's transaction volume that exceeds the rate at which the USD/BTC exchange rate is growing?

Ironically, the more BitPay succeeds, the more I believe people don't really trust the BTC market. BitPay is designed for the merchant, they are never exposed to the BTC market because it's fundamentally unstable right now. Which means, trust fiat, just use BTC because some kids are using it and it might bring in some more sales.

That's partially true, but you're missing another big component, which is that most merchants can not yet pay their suppliers directly in Bitcoin and they aren't independently wealthy multimillionaires capable of paying their suppliers out of their own savings while accumulating bitcoins. They have to sell at least some fraction of their received bitcoins just to keep the business going. This will change once bitcoin acceptance begins to reach into the next level of the supply chain.

For now the payment processors are doing us all a favor by making sure there are actually bitcoins available for sale on the exchanges.

This will be necessary in order for Bitcoin to continue growing. If all goes well, eventually people will realise they don't need to cash out into fiat, they can just use Bitcoin. It always surprises me how many people seem to think that Bitcoin must be instantly adopted by everyone overnight before they will consider it a success. Obviously that would never happen, it takes a bit of time for new ideas to catch on and the transition is a process which involves intermediate stages. Be aware of the risks, and act accordingly. Bitcoin is still an experiment in beta, with a massive potential upside.

3) I know nothing but the price is rising, I find it strange to say the least, and will not buy in this kind of crazy market. My bitcoin savings are securely waiting.

This last option is how I feel and act, but I started this thread to try to understand what (1) may be, if anything at all. I just can't believe that these kinds of trade volumes in the skyrocketing market can happen without insider's confidence. Perhaps I am underestimating the ease with which investirs can get free fiat to invest...?

That is true, but I don't believe that is the motivating factor behind adopting BitPay.


Well that's my point. BitPay's success will be inversely proportional to Bitcoin's maturity and hence, stability.

Right, put it more succinctly than I did but that's pretty much what I meant. However, I do think the length and degree of success will indirectly speak toward the true trust and faith in the Bitcoin economy.

I think a lot of us have planned to keep as much of our assets in bitcoins as possible until it's a world wide accepted, day-to-day, bricks-and-mortar kind of currency. Then we never have to "cash out" but can instead pay our (thailand beach home) rent with bitcoins.

Get too fond of money and the masses might stop giving so much to the Church. Can't have that now, can we?

Please don't paint religion as a greedy scheme just because the modern-day manifestation of material decadence exists in a few (primarily one) religion. And this is way off topic.

Spending them is a form of selling, yes. I don't really intend to sell most of them for fiat ever either. I plan on spending more of them in the future. Maybe I'll buy a house with bitcoins directly. That's something to dream of. :)

I think it is hilarious that the true believers here think that looking at BTC price on a log scale changes the base information; it doesn't, BTC is still in a bubble no matter which chart you are looking at.



This:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=C&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

and this:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=C&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&


both say the exact same thing.

That's adorable.

I concur, I read that the past is not a predictor of the future, but I think we should expect exponential growth.  My advice to the Bears is always save 10% of everything you sell in a deflationary environment.

Exactly.  One is screaming and the other is saying the same thing in a normal voice.  E.g. "BUBBLE! vs. "Hey dude, this is a bubble, btw.".

...and so your advice is?

Panic buy.

sell sell sell before the bubble hits $1000 and pops!!

I'm gonna sell all now!  Too close to 1000...  Just a few hours left ;D

So, from this graph, if I extrapolate, I can see that by next week-end we'll hit 500 :)

Exactly.  And we won't.

 :o :o :o

we WON'T hit $500 by next week!?! That's a pretty bearish call my friend...I'm gonna need something to back that up.

I know! ;D That's exactly like the extrapolation picture above! I just found it funny though :P

when proudhon says it wont happen, that always means it will happen.

Those kids are spending158BTC a day at Amagi Metals. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130831.msg1750225#msg1750225)

Those zany kids. ;D

All this talk about bubbles and charts... Maybe I'm off base here but isn't the goal of the bitcoin community to pretty much replace fiat currencies and create a big decentralized free market not controlled by governments and banks? If that's the case then I think it would not be uncommon for us to see exponential growth at some point vs fiat.

If you take all those currencies and adjust them to a single total monetary value and then divide by the maximum of 21 million bitcoins, you would end up with one bitcoin equaling a hell of a lot of money by today's fiat. 

Granted we're nowhere near that point, but you have to start the hike somewhere. Bitcoin has been gaining a lot popularity in the past few months so we might just be adjusting to that "level of acceptance" right now. I'm sure we'll have dips and slower periods along the way but I think a real crash probably would only come if the market completely rejects bitcoin as a currency or maybe a major code failure.

Bitcoin is not scalable to a national economy, much less a global economy (hell, it can barely handle the number of transactions from satoshi dice), so all of the talk you hear around here about replacing any currency is silly.

What we are seeing is a speculative bubble, pure and simple.

You see, you're still doing it wrong.  The correct scale is a log-log-scale.

Just gon keep going up ;d

That's what Paul Krugman predicted about the internet in 1998.

That's the reality. The sooner it pops, the better for everybody.

If the bears can fall back, they may have a chance at reversal at around 240.  The sign will be low volume on the up move.  The withheld volume will deaden the momentum, but there may yet be bulls in the woodwork.  No matter your position, proceed with caution.

We know it will worth ten of thousands someday  ;)

+1

worthless chart indeed !

THIS is a chart..

doubling 10 = 20
doubling 20 = 40
doubling 40 = 80
doubling 80 = 160
doubling 160 = 320..

You got it.. so from 1$ to 2$ is the same as from 100 to 200 on an investment point of view..

In a year or so, I tell : going from 100 to 200 is the same as from 1000 to 2000 on an investment point of view..

Thanks for those like prof7bit who know what a real chart is and show it :)

maybe to buy more mining rig ;)