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Title: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: ffernandex on April 10, 2013, 01:58:34 PM Divergency between last price action vs MAC-D indicator.
If price breaks below 240 may confirm reversal or trend or beginning of a correction. Otherwise, be aware of a double-top at the 266 level, which could confirm exhaustion of current trend. http://s9.postimg.org/8ar0fjc4f/btc_10d_1_H_20130410.jpg (http://postimage.org/) upload foto (http://postimage.org/) Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: HATA28 on April 10, 2013, 01:59:26 PM SELL SELL SELL
Double top my ass Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: move_zig on April 10, 2013, 02:00:24 PM If price breaks below 240 may confirm reversal or trend or beginning of a correction. Otherwise, be aware of a double-top at the 266 level, which could confirm exhaustion of current trend. So if the price goes down, crash. And if the price goes up, crash. Got it. Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: mccorvic on April 10, 2013, 02:02:46 PM If price breaks below 240 may confirm reversal or trend or beginning of a correction. Otherwise, be aware of a double-top at the 266 level, which could confirm exhaustion of current trend. So if the price goes down, crash. And if the price goes up, crash. Got it. This has been the bear argument since $15 Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: Piper67 on April 10, 2013, 02:03:41 PM If price breaks below 240 may confirm reversal or trend or beginning of a correction. Otherwise, be aware of a double-top at the 266 level, which could confirm exhaustion of current trend. So if the price goes down, crash. And if the price goes up, crash. Got it. This has been the bear argument since $15 You haven't been around long enough, mccorvic. Bears have been making this argument since parity with one USD. Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: ffernandex on April 10, 2013, 02:04:14 PM If price breaks below 240 may confirm reversal or trend or beginning of a correction. Otherwise, be aware of a double-top at the 266 level, which could confirm exhaustion of current trend. So if the price goes down, crash. And if the price goes up, crash. Got it. Price can still go up again and go higher than 266. Depending on volume and strength, the current upward trend could continue. What I meant was to be aware of the price making a double top (reaching 266 and reversing again) which is a strong indicator of trend exhaustion. BTW I'm not bear nor bull. Just trying to apply simple technical analysis to BTC. cheers! Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: flaab on April 10, 2013, 02:18:17 PM If price breaks below 240 may confirm reversal or trend or beginning of a correction. Otherwise, be aware of a double-top at the 266 level, which could confirm exhaustion of current trend. So if the price goes down, crash. And if the price goes up, crash. Got it. Price can still go up again and go higher than 266. Depending on volume and strength, the current upward trend could continue. What I meant was to be aware of the price making a double top (reaching 266 and reversing again) which is a strong indicator of trend exhaustion. BTW I'm not bear nor bull. Just trying to apply simple technical analysis to BTC. cheers! But one day, perhaps the double top will reverse the trend. Who knows when? Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: ManBearPig on April 10, 2013, 02:37:24 PM You can't just rely on trend analysis without looking at the fundamentals.
The fundamentals have changed this year, fundamentally and continue to do so, daily. Others are doing a fine job of keeping us informed of those, you know what the major ones are. Agreed: 23% growth day-on-day is crazy: it might not happen on consecutive days but it very well may do so on single days at some time in the future. The current trends in average daily growth (to close yesterday): 1 day 23% 3 days 17% This month 11% Since the inflection point of 17th March 2013 7% This year 3% Since 2010 1.14% One could argue we are in any or all of those trends. So the question is, which current trend will change? Oh and seriously: MACD on BTC? Give that up until global adoption is fully here :) Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: afbitcoins on April 10, 2013, 03:22:46 PM Divergency between last price action vs MAC-D indicator. If price breaks below 240 may confirm reversal or trend or beginning of a correction. Otherwise, be aware of a double-top at the 266 level, which could confirm exhaustion of current trend. http://s9.postimg.org/8ar0fjc4f/btc_10d_1_H_20130410.jpg (http://postimage.org/) upload foto (http://postimage.org/) Thanks for your analysis :) I also came to the conclusion a correction is on the way based on resistance at a long term trend line. http://afbitcoins.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/20130409-all-data-log-chart1.png Found it very hard to be accurate in the price prediction due to the log scale and the shortage of data points but I think the idea has some validity. Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: Elwar on April 10, 2013, 03:30:17 PM How does one predict the trend of some millionaire in China picking up a newspaper and reading about Bitcoin for the first time and having it "click"?
Same thing in any other part of the world. There is nothing to predict when someone with a lot of money may start moving money today or wait until returning from a business trip next week. Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: proudhon on April 10, 2013, 03:32:47 PM Look at blockchained.com. Almost $4m has left the order book in the past couple days. If that isn't a sign EAs are beginning to cash out, I don't know what is. When we look back a couple years from now, this will probably be the turning point to at the beginning of a very long and painful correction.
Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: Newscastix on April 10, 2013, 03:34:47 PM Look at blockchained.com. Almost $4m has left the order book in the past couple days. If that isn't a sign EAs are beginning to cash out, I don't know what is. When we look back a couple years from now, this will probably be the turning point to at the beginning of a very long and painful correction. You might have a point... but the EA's will then be the ones drying in a few years when we are at $1,000+/BTC... If i were an EA i would NOT cash out... not at this point... Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: yokosan on April 10, 2013, 03:36:33 PM Look at blockchained.com. Almost $4m has left the order book in the past couple days. If that isn't a sign EAs are beginning to cash out, I don't know what is. When we look back a couple years from now, this will probably be the turning point to at the beginning of a very long and painful correction. I don't agree with OPs TA, but funnily enough I do agree with Proudhon, he may finally be right. My reasoning? My own behavior and the increasing amount of time that Bitstamp is taking to process fiat withdrawals, presumably because they are flooded with them. Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: proudhon on April 10, 2013, 03:46:29 PM Look at blockchained.com. Almost $4m has left the order book in the past couple days. If that isn't a sign EAs are beginning to cash out, I don't know what is. When we look back a couple years from now, this will probably be the turning point to at the beginning of a very long and painful correction. You might have a point... but the EA's will then be the ones drying in a few years when we are at $1,000+/BTC... If i were an EA i would NOT cash out... not at this point... A flood of EAs cashing out will probably spark a massive correction that could last years and severely damage bitcoins reputation for even longer. I think this behavior will prevent exchange rates from being higher than they are now-ish for a very, very long time. $1000 is completely out of the question at this point. Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: Dargo on April 10, 2013, 03:47:39 PM My view is that if we correct from here, it will be more of a short term correction followed by new ATH, rather than a long term crash. I don't think 266 will be the high for this year (i.e. we go higher prior to 12/31/2013).
Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: crazy_rabbit on April 10, 2013, 03:50:20 PM Look at blockchained.com. Almost $4m has left the order book in the past couple days. If that isn't a sign EAs are beginning to cash out, I don't know what is. When we look back a couple years from now, this will probably be the turning point to at the beginning of a very long and painful correction. You might have a point... but the EA's will then be the ones drying in a few years when we are at $1,000+/BTC... If i were an EA i would NOT cash out... not at this point... A flood of EAs cashing out will probably spark a massive correction that could last years and severely damage bitcoins reputation for even longer. I think this behavior will prevent exchange rates from being higher than they are now-ish for a very, very long time. $1000 is completely out of the question at this point. Early adopters didn't get into bitcoin because they thought they would be millionaires. They got in because they believe in it for the long haul. Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: humanitee on April 10, 2013, 03:50:32 PM It's the weekly exhaustion.
$260 was much too high, I was surprised when I woke up this morning to see it had risen that far. Panic buying I presume. Back to $190 or thereabouts, possibly. Then next week we go up again. With that said, I didn't sell and I don't think this is even close to topping out. Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: sgbett on April 10, 2013, 03:51:34 PM This one feels real, but as others have said correction not crash. I'm gonna pluck $164 out of my ass.
Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: XXthetimeisnowXX on April 10, 2013, 03:54:14 PM hoorayyy time to buy some coin!!!!! ;D
Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: Elwar on April 10, 2013, 03:56:58 PM It's the weekly exhaustion. $260 was much too high, I was surprised when I woke up this morning to see it had risen that far. Panic buying I presume. Back to $190 or thereabouts, possibly. Then next week we go up again. With that said, I didn't sell and I don't think this is even close to topping out. It is the Gox lag. Price falls more the longer the lag time. When the lag clears up the price jumps up. I would write a trading bot to trade based upon lag time but they will be clearing that up in a day or so. Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: humanitee on April 10, 2013, 03:58:19 PM It's the weekly exhaustion. $260 was much too high, I was surprised when I woke up this morning to see it had risen that far. Panic buying I presume. Back to $190 or thereabouts, possibly. Then next week we go up again. With that said, I didn't sell and I don't think this is even close to topping out. It is the Gox lag. Price falls more the longer the lag time. When the lag clears up the price jumps up. I would write a trading bot to trade based upon lag time but they will be clearing that up in a day or so. Wow, I can't believe you actually believe that Gox knows how to fix anything. I've been around since $4.00 and Gox has never, ever had their shit in order, and probably never will. Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: lebing on April 10, 2013, 04:00:53 PM Look at blockchained.com. Almost $4m has left the order book in the past couple days. If that isn't a sign EAs are beginning to cash out, I don't know what is. When we look back a couple years from now, this will probably be the turning point to at the beginning of a very long and painful correction. It didn't "leave the order book" it was used to buy coins. Apparently because the flow of cash into gox was smaller on Wednesday than it was on Tuesday, thats enough to cause a panic. Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: dg2010 on April 10, 2013, 04:06:42 PM Early adopters didn't get into bitcoin because they thought they would be millionaires. They got in because they believe in it for the long haul. Stop trying to classify peoples behavior because you have no fucking clue what the motivations are of an early adopter. Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: glub0x on April 10, 2013, 04:07:52 PM buying is showing up :p
Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: epetroel on April 10, 2013, 04:09:03 PM Look at blockchained.com. Almost $4m has left the order book in the past couple days. If that isn't a sign EAs are beginning to cash out, I don't know what is. When we look back a couple years from now, this will probably be the turning point to at the beginning of a very long and painful correction. I agree that this is a bearish signal. However, I think this may have had something to do with Gox's announcement about how their new trading engine would reserve funds for open orders. For example, I have about $20,000 worth of buy orders going from $175 all the way down to $17 - that way if the price drops I'll pick up more coins. But after hearing about the new trading engine, I already went in and cancelled a bunch of those orders since I don't want them tying up my funds unnecessarily. I suspect many others may have done the same thing. Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: Biro Bob on April 10, 2013, 04:16:01 PM It is the Gox lag. Price falls more the longer the lag time. When the lag clears up the price jumps up. I would write a trading bot to trade based upon lag time but they will be clearing that up in a day or so. Mtgox trading engine lag: 1017.27s Last time this happened there was a crash too. People see it drop - Panic - then sell! I am a tech-nerd and I have to say that Bitcoin is one of the greatest inventions I've ever seen! This is up there with the WWW and email and possibly even higher. With a current market cap of $2 billion - it's not even close to reaching it's true potential - That may not happen this year... but I genuinely believe that Bitcoin is has way more potential and attraction to the masses than Facebook (Market Cap: $60B.) Thats my 0.000084 Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: ffernandex on April 10, 2013, 06:57:48 PM well, it seems the correction is taking place. Hate to say it, but I told you so! :)
Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: Manticore on April 10, 2013, 07:59:39 PM It's the weekly exhaustion. $260 was much too high, I was surprised when I woke up this morning to see it had risen that far. Panic buying I presume. Back to $190 or thereabouts, possibly. Then next week we go up again. With that said, I didn't sell and I don't think this is even close to topping out. It is the Gox lag. Price falls more the longer the lag time. When the lag clears up the price jumps up. I would write a trading bot to trade based upon lag time but they will be clearing that up in a day or so. No, the lag usually stems the fall. The last 4 small sell-offs stopped once the lag started. The price popped back up because Mt Gox sticks the bid/ask high during the lag and tiny bot fills go through on the inflated ask (e.g., a series of .02 BTC). That's why the price usually jumps right back up. I've watched this closely and posted data sets regarding this bizarre action. It happened today but the dump was too strong... https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=170483 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=172540 Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: afbitcoins on April 11, 2013, 07:36:34 AM How does one predict the trend of some millionaire in China picking up a newspaper and reading about Bitcoin for the first time and having it "click"? Same thing in any other part of the world. There is nothing to predict when someone with a lot of money may start moving money today or wait until returning from a business trip next week. Funny how the prediction came true though. Maybe you put too much emphasis on black swan events moving the market rather than statistical behaviour patterns Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: IveBeenBit on April 11, 2013, 07:43:44 AM If price breaks below 240 may confirm reversal or trend or beginning of a correction. Otherwise, be aware of a double-top at the 266 level, which could confirm exhaustion of current trend. So if the price goes down, crash. And if the price goes up, crash. Got it. This has been the bear argument since $15 This time it's different. Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: nwbitcoin on April 11, 2013, 07:48:12 AM I am impressed by this prediction - unfortunately, like all predictions, it only has any weight once the time has passed to take action!
However, you get a credibility star - and those are worth more than bitcoins! :) Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: arepo on April 11, 2013, 08:03:30 AM How does one predict the trend of some millionaire in China picking up a newspaper and reading about Bitcoin for the first time and having it "click"? Same thing in any other part of the world. There is nothing to predict when someone with a lot of money may start moving money today or wait until returning from a business trip next week. you are mistaken. TA works precisely because of actions like these. hint: smart money reflects underlying trends, not opposes. Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: ffernandex on April 11, 2013, 01:14:58 PM I am impressed by this prediction - unfortunately, like all predictions, it only has any weight once the time has passed to take action! However, you get a credibility star - and those are worth more than bitcoins! :) Thank you! I'm glad I can contribute. I have the insight that technical analysis should work very well with bitcoins, as these are quite intangible. And, differently from the "real world" markets, we still do not have super machines doing millions of microtrades per second (cf. Goldman Sachs, high-frequency-trading) with the ability to introduce a lot of noise in the trends. BTC charts are quite clear and defined so far. Anyway, technical analysis "predictions" are always about probabilities, not certainties. Regarding the current correction, I see that it might still try the 105 bottom again, before resuming it's upward path. That would really set the support near the $100 level, which I think is a very healthy correction, as it would have consolidated the first major upward trend that took the BTC from the 20s into the 100s Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: 2dogs on April 11, 2013, 03:54:44 PM Where can I find the same chart the OP presented in the first post? Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: ffernandex on April 11, 2013, 05:53:29 PM Where can I find the same chart the OP presented in the first post? http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg10zigHourlyztgSza1gSMAzm1g24zm2g25 Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: alexh on April 11, 2013, 06:42:19 PM Quote Wow, I can't believe you actually believe that Gox knows how to fix anything. I've been around since $4.00 and Gox has never, ever had their shit in order, and probably never will. Exactly, get your money out of there. Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: 2dogs on April 12, 2013, 06:49:51 AM Where can I find the same chart the OP presented in the first post? http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg10zigHourlyztgSza1gSMAzm1g24zm2g25 Thank you - decent charts for bitcoins are hard to find. Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: pera on April 12, 2013, 07:18:56 AM probably the most accurate analysis on Speculation... good work OP (and also proudhon) :)
btw MACD and SSTO are the only relevant TI imho Title: Re: First signs of exhaustion of current trend Post by: ffernandex on April 12, 2013, 02:56:03 PM Regarding the current correction, I see that it might still try the 105 bottom again, before resuming it's upward path. That would really set the support near the $100 level, which I think is a very healthy correction, as it would have consolidated the first major upward trend that took the BTC from the 20s into the 100s I was so wrong about this though... |
