First signs of exhaustion of current trend

[ffernandex]

Divergency between last price action vs MAC-D indicator.

If price breaks below 240 may confirm reversal or trend or beginning of a correction.

Otherwise, be aware of a double-top at the 266 level, which could confirm exhaustion of current trend.




upload foto

[HATA28]

SELL SELL SELL

Double top my ass

[move_zig]

If price breaks below 240 may confirm reversal or trend or beginning of a correction.

Otherwise, be aware of a double-top at the 266 level, which could confirm exhaustion of current trend.

So if the price goes down, crash.
And if the price goes up, crash.

Got it.

[mccorvic]

If price breaks below 240 may confirm reversal or trend or beginning of a correction.

Otherwise, be aware of a double-top at the 266 level, which could confirm exhaustion of current trend.

So if the price goes down, crash.
And if the price goes up, crash.

Got it.

This has been the bear argument since $15

[Piper67]

If price breaks below 240 may confirm reversal or trend or beginning of a correction.

Otherwise, be aware of a double-top at the 266 level, which could confirm exhaustion of current trend.

So if the price goes down, crash.
And if the price goes up, crash.

Got it.

This has been the bear argument since $15

You haven't been around long enough, mccorvic. Bears have been making this argument since parity with one USD.

[ffernandex]

If price breaks below 240 may confirm reversal or trend or beginning of a correction.

Otherwise, be aware of a double-top at the 266 level, which could confirm exhaustion of current trend.

So if the price goes down, crash.
And if the price goes up, crash.

Got it.

Price can still go up again and go higher than 266. Depending on volume and strength, the current upward trend could continue.

What I meant was to be aware of the price making a double top (reaching 266 and reversing again) which is a strong indicator of trend exhaustion.

BTW I'm not bear nor bull. Just trying to apply simple technical analysis to BTC.

cheers!

[flaab]

If price breaks below 240 may confirm reversal or trend or beginning of a correction.

Otherwise, be aware of a double-top at the 266 level, which could confirm exhaustion of current trend.

So if the price goes down, crash.
And if the price goes up, crash.

Got it.

Price can still go up again and go higher than 266. Depending on volume and strength, the current upward trend could continue.

What I meant was to be aware of the price making a double top (reaching 266 and reversing again) which is a strong indicator of trend exhaustion.

BTW I'm not bear nor bull. Just trying to apply simple technical analysis to BTC.

cheers!

I have seen several double tops on the bitcoin price, but the price has resumed up.
But one day, perhaps the double top will reverse the trend.
Who knows when?

[ManBearPig]

You can't just rely on trend analysis without looking at the fundamentals.

The fundamentals have changed this year, fundamentally and continue to do so, daily.

Others are doing a fine job of keeping us informed of those, you know what the major ones are.

Agreed: 23% growth day-on-day is crazy: it might not happen on consecutive days but it very well may do so on single days at some time in the future.

The current trends in average daily growth (to close yesterday):

1 day      23%
3 days     17%
This month 11%
Since the inflection point of 17th March 2013 7%
This year   3%
Since 2010  1.14%

One could argue we are in any or all of those trends.

So the question is, which current trend will change?

Oh and seriously: MACD on BTC? Give that up until global adoption is fully here

[afbitcoins]

Divergency between last price action vs MAC-D indicator.

If price breaks below 240 may confirm reversal or trend or beginning of a correction.

Otherwise, be aware of a double-top at the 266 level, which could confirm exhaustion of current trend.




upload foto

Thanks for your analysis I also came to the conclusion a correction is on the way based on resistance at a long term trend line.



Found it very hard to be accurate in the price prediction due to the log scale and the shortage of data points but I think the idea has some validity.

[Elwar]

How does one predict the trend of some millionaire in China picking up a newspaper and reading about Bitcoin for the first time and having it "click"?

Same thing in any other part of the world.

There is nothing to predict when someone with a lot of money may start moving money today or wait until returning from a business trip next week.

[proudhon]

Look at blockchained.com.  Almost $4m has left the order book in the past couple days.  If that isn't a sign EAs are beginning to cash out, I don't know what is.  When we look back a couple years from now, this will probably be the turning point to at the beginning of a very long and painful correction.

[Newscastix]

Look at blockchained.com.  Almost $4m has left the order book in the past couple days.  If that isn't a sign EAs are beginning to cash out, I don't know what is.  When we look back a couple years from now, this will probably be the turning point to at the beginning of a very long and painful correction.

You might have a point... but the EA's will then be the ones drying in a few years when we are at $1,000+/BTC...

If i were an EA i would NOT cash out... not at this point...

[yokosan]

Look at blockchained.com.  Almost $4m has left the order book in the past couple days.  If that isn't a sign EAs are beginning to cash out, I don't know what is.  When we look back a couple years from now, this will probably be the turning point to at the beginning of a very long and painful correction.

I don't agree with OPs TA, but funnily enough I do agree with Proudhon, he may finally be right.

My reasoning? My own behavior and the increasing amount of time that Bitstamp is taking to process fiat withdrawals, presumably because they are flooded with them.

[proudhon]

Look at blockchained.com.  Almost $4m has left the order book in the past couple days.  If that isn't a sign EAs are beginning to cash out, I don't know what is.  When we look back a couple years from now, this will probably be the turning point to at the beginning of a very long and painful correction.

You might have a point... but the EA's will then be the ones drying in a few years when we are at $1,000+/BTC...

If i were an EA i would NOT cash out... not at this point...

A flood of EAs cashing out will probably spark a massive correction that could last years and severely damage bitcoins reputation for even longer.  I think this behavior will prevent exchange rates from being higher than they are now-ish for a very, very long time.  $1000 is completely out of the question at this point. 

[Dargo]

My view is that if we correct from here, it will be more of a short term correction followed by new ATH, rather than a long term crash. I don't think 266 will be the high for this year (i.e. we go higher prior to 12/31/2013).

[crazy_rabbit]

Look at blockchained.com.  Almost $4m has left the order book in the past couple days.  If that isn't a sign EAs are beginning to cash out, I don't know what is.  When we look back a couple years from now, this will probably be the turning point to at the beginning of a very long and painful correction.

You might have a point... but the EA's will then be the ones drying in a few years when we are at $1,000+/BTC...

If i were an EA i would NOT cash out... not at this point...

A flood of EAs cashing out will probably spark a massive correction that could last years and severely damage bitcoins reputation for even longer.  I think this behavior will prevent exchange rates from being higher than they are now-ish for a very, very long time.  $1000 is completely out of the question at this point. 

Early adopters didn't get into bitcoin because they thought they would be millionaires. They got in because they believe in it for the long haul.

[humanitee]

It's the weekly exhaustion.

$260 was much too high, I was surprised when I woke up this morning to see it had risen that far. Panic buying I presume.
Back to $190 or thereabouts, possibly.

Then next week we go up again.

With that said, I didn't sell and I don't think this is even close to topping out.

[sgbett]

This one feels real, but as others have said correction not crash. I'm gonna pluck $164 out of my ass.

[XXthetimeisnowXX]

hoorayyy time to buy some coin!!!!!

[Elwar]

It's the weekly exhaustion.

$260 was much too high, I was surprised when I woke up this morning to see it had risen that far. Panic buying I presume.
Back to $190 or thereabouts, possibly.

Then next week we go up again.

With that said, I didn't sell and I don't think this is even close to topping out.

It is the Gox lag. Price falls more the longer the lag time.

When the lag clears up the price jumps up.

I would write a trading bot to trade based upon lag time but they will be clearing that up in a day or so.