Bitcoin Forum

FOREMOST: I am aware of the shipping issues BFL is having, so please no replys like 'No because you won't get it'  This assumes that BFL will deliver.

With the recent increase in bitcoin prices I am seriously considering picking up some hashing power; however I was wondering if it would be worth it.   I have never mined before, though I am highly technical (not worried about setting it up or running it).  What I am worried about are things I know I don't know, and the things I don't know I don't know.

For example.... if you put 5 GH/s into a mining calculator today the return is great; however I would not get mine until most ASICs have shipped, I have no idea what to do for a difficulty estimate.  I don't really care about the USD from mining, what I really want is to just set it up and have it generate some bitcoins over the long term for me.  What I don't want is for 5GH to become like a single GPU card that really doesn't make it worth it.

So my question:  Would purchasing a single 5 GH/s ASIC be worth it?

It is worth it to us, in comedic value.

Thank you for that helpful post.

If mining is not profitable, no one will mine. If no one is mining, no new transactions can be maid...
Did you take into account the transaction fees in your calculation?

Anyway you cut it, it will be risky. 

I am more asking for opinions on difficulty I guess.  I just don't know enough to speculate.  Assuming that BFL delivers then we know that ASICs will hit and the difficulty will surge.  I just don't know what is a reasonable guestimate for it.

Like I said I am not concerned about the exchange rate, other than the fact that it is so high I wouldn't have to part with that many coins to order the device. 

However if it is going to take years to even generate the coin back then it isn't a good investment.

Play around on the calculator with difficulties.   Try 30,000,000 - 50,000,000 - 100,000,000 and see how you feel then.

If they deliver tomorrow, and BTC goes to $10000 it is an AWESOME DEAL because now you are rich.
If they deliver in 6 months and BTC goes to $10000 it is a TERRIBLE DEAL because you could have bought BTC instead.
If they deliver in 6 months, but the product is crap and burns out after 2 weeks of mining because they are amateurs and have no idea how to build complex electronic equipment it is a TERRIBLE DEAL
If they deliver tomorrow, but the product is crap and burns out after 2 weeks of mining because they are amateurs and have no idea how to build complex electronic equipment it is an ever so slightly less TERRIBLE DEAL.

Of course, the elephant in the room is that they may never deliver at all. But you declared that the elephant is not to be considered because it is large and gray.

That is my point... I don't know what is a reasonable difficulty to plug in which i why I am asking people with more knowledge on the matter.

30m,50m,100m are those 'valid' estimates?


That literally made me LOL.  I am aware of the elephant; however the question I asked myself months ago:  "Would I be willing to risk X coins on this?"  the answer was no, no I wasn't.

However today I might be willing to risk 1.5 coins that they will deliver..... assuming that I won't be mining 0.000001 coins a day when it comes, which i what I am asking.  I understand that no one really knows what the difficulty will be (esp because the hash rates of the ASICs have be 'adjusted'); however I know that there are smarter people than I who have extrapolated these things and have some sort or reasonable number that I can plug in and better make the decision.

The one thing you should keep in mind:

You'll be very far down the line with your order.
Expect your miner to be delivered after ALL the other people already have theirs up and running.
Expect difficulty to have increased accordingly.

I know (sounds like July at the earliest)... that is why I am trying to find out exactly what a reasonable value is to account for.

Can I continue?
If they deliver in 6 month and BTC price goes down to $1.99 it is a TERRIBLE DEAL because you buy something to get almost nothing.
If they deliver in 6 month, but BTC become illegal at that time,  it is a TERRIBLE DEAL because you got absolutely useless hardware which, unlike GPU, could not be used for your personal needs or sold to somebody else.

Ah but if BTC becomes illegal the 5GH unit will become a museum piece as a crime against humanity  :P

Or evidence in your trial...

When BTC are outlawed, only outlaws will mine BTC!

You will be order ~#40,000 and your tiny unit will be the lowest of the low priority...  This doesn't seem to stop many people though...  So what do I know.

my 2 cents. the biggest winners are those that take the biggest risks..
$250 is not a big risk.. go for the 10k version.  :)

The network hash rate is about 68 TH  today you would get about 0.33 btc per day ---
when avalon delivers  would expect the network to be at about 200 TH and your rig will
produce 0.09 BTC  per day---  when BFL come on line the will add about 562 TH to the network  ie
network will be around 762 TH your rig will mine at about 0.0236 BTC per day  --- I think you need a bigger mining rig

THANK YOU!!!

This is exactly what I was looking for.   Back when prices were at $266 then this wasn't a big deal... Just plug in and let it run, pays more that my mining contracts. 

What difficulty do those hash speeds translate to?

around $50-60 per gigahash

that means the 1.5 terahash machine will be around $60,000 now

(Your Hash Rate / Network Hash Rate) * 3600 = Coins mined per day

Thank you!  And for the previous figures!

562 seems high for 6months from now but that would be about 55-60 Million in difficulty.

If there will be a mini-miner, 5 GH/s, I will buy it. I prefer to get something like 15 GH/s though. Distributing these mini miners world wide, into 100+ countries, is only going to help the bitcoin network.

There are other reasons for people to buy it, other than if it is personally worth it. To me, if it helps secure the network, it is sort of worth it, since the value of my bitcoin (and everyone else's) is secure.

Right but coins mined should have a correlation to the amount of security you are actually adding to the network.


How do you translate between hash rate and difficulty?

131,384= 1 terahash worth of difficulty (its approx,not exact)

So 131,384x250TH=32,846,000,diff for 250TH or network total  ;D

Is there any solid update of BFL ASIC miner beyond previous 180W consumption video?
If no, I strongly recomand NOT to order it.

Good point.  Although I live in WY which has very cheap power. 

Are there any other choices besides bfl?

Unfortunately, seems no.
But, compare with give money to BFL for a scam, buy some BTC with same money from Mtgox seems more reasonable.

That has been my strategy thus far. However I am wondering if a small risk would be warrented on actually mining some. Break even in 3 months then have the bitcoins slowly pile up. 

With my very quick and not in depth calcs it would generate more coins than my mining contracts for less risk (BTC only).

Well, if 1000 people have 5 GH/s units, and another 1000 have 15 GH/s units, thats 20000 GH/s or 20 TH/s. Regardless of what is mined (and don't forget tx fees on top of block rewards), wouldn't that help secure the network? Decentralization.

All these are base on the assumption that BFL can deliver. In fact, base on their video, I really doubt it is true. I don't think a heatsink without fan can handle the heat of a 180W power consumption chip. Unless BFL has Mars technology which is better than Intel or AMD.