Bitcoin Forum

As Bitcoin overcomes every little thing thrown at it, it only strengthened people's resolve.

So the only flaw that they could come at us with was that the price was in a bubble and that it would crash.

Well...pop goes the weasel.

When we return to new highs in a day or so...that will be it. What will you have to throw at Bitcoin then?

Another bubble that will be recovered from shortly thereafter? Yawn.

I wish I was able to buy a bit more to take advantage of this but this thing is going nowhere but up.

Another massive bubble that fucks X amount of people over? You can only fuck over so many people before you don't get anymore suckers to play your game.

Until those "suckers" turn into wise people that learn how to play "our game" ::)

Seriously these post's make me laugh. Is this your first high risk investment? if so it explains everything.

I suggest you short Bitcoin on margin at bitfinex if you feel that way...you will be very pleased as it crashes.

Actually, I plan to just sit on the sidelines and watch pure stupidity in action as sucker after sucker drops their money on the table for the wolves to take it and laugh to the bank.

Then I'll just dip in and out of BTC to pay bills until all the idiots lose their shirts.

I have no intention in contributing to the tarnishing of a good thing.

April 03, 2013

This wouldn't happen to be a reference to the marlins at the nationals would it?

WTF? You have another thread about how this is like armageddon end times for Bitcoin just a couple threads down!

Yes, but I am helpfully pointing the bears to a place where they can put their money.

Trading on margin is really the best way to show those silly bulls where they should stick their Bitcoins. (maybe on a trading platform that allows you to loan Bitcoins to bears and get paid for it)

It only fucks over people who were ready to speculate and it went badly for them. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

Nowadays when I buy my coins, I move them out of the exchange. They are safer this way, under my control.

There is no selling of BTC in my exchange for short term speculation. If I need fiat for a good reason, I will move the right amount back to an exchange and cash it out. Otherwise my coins are not for sale, they are meant to be either saved or spent.

Well, you're the rare exception. It would be obvious though, that buying into these rallies is indeed partaking in attempts at profit taking based on speculation.

Bubbles don't fuck people over - stupid choices do.  Risking what you can't afford to lose fucks people over.  No-one forces people to buy shit at the top of a bubble any more than anyone forces them to sell when a bubble pops.  No-one forces you to hold as the price is rising instead of realising your gains.

If you're sitting there thinking "OMG if the price crashes back to USD 20 I'm in trouble" then you probably shouldn't be playing with high risk investments in the first place.

You control your level of risk - not "the market".  At various times being bullish will be more profitable, at various times being bearish will bring the greatest returns.  Making emotional decisions - whether bullish or bearish - is what's likely to bring you undone.  If you fear the bubble popping, then you're likely already made bad choices which have left you over-exposed.

Good strategy. This is what bitcoins are invented for. Where are you going to spend them?

This.  A lot of people were just badly burned.  It's not going to completely deflate overnight, but over the coming months, we'll see loads of people move on.  Hopefully the infrastructure will be ready to handle mainstream loads in a few years.  I'm optimistic bitcoin will get another chance in 4 years or so, but if this happens again 4 years from now, that'll be it.

I agree with your assessment..it comes down to infrastructure which currently can't even handle a tiny fraction of what would be "mainstream" usage. There may be some big investors or startups that could get serious enough to make it happen sooner than 4 years but yes, another big hit after that would be the beginning of the end.

LOL Proudhon, stop catching newbies in your nets! How are those double digits going? Or were they single?

thank you, you said what i was going to

+1

I agree, there are a lot of people that threw a ton of dollars on the table to get snatched up.

There is a reason the top Bitcoin wallets keep getting larger while everyone else is fighting for crumbs.

FTFY

Funny.

These types of price swings feel much more like the Bitcoin I'm used to.  Why is everybody freaking out?  :D  I'm more relieved at this recent development because it means we're back on some degree of sanity.  A bubble needs a correction!  :-\

People who lost tons of money are the same types of people who lost tons of money last time.

Yeah, the permabulls who refused to cash out and lock in profits.  ;)

Amazing how a few bitcoin millionaires who felt the need to hold probably became bitcoin thousandaires in a few hours.

I cannot imagine who would be worried about "losing tons of money".

The price is where it was two days ago. Did someone put in an order for a new yacht yesterday who is now pissed?

Whether it's his first, or it's millionth high risk trade is irrelevant. What's relevant is that BTC - while a solid alternative payment mechanism - simply has too many 'confidence' issues to sustain the current 'market cap'.

1) low merchant adoption. Anyone who works in transactional systems will tell you major retailers lag too much behind tech to turn around and start accepting btc at the rate required to sustain the valuation. Remember NFC, paying for stuff with your phone, etc? That stuff has been out for a decade. Did you use your phone to buy that meal you ate this PM? No, and there's a very good reason for that.
2) exchanges are weak technologically. MTGox in particular has made no effort in communicating through out of band channels such as twitter. They aren't trying to panic people either - they just don't 'get' the web scale game. They will, however, but in time. Again, not fast enough to sustain the current valuation.
3) too much of the new money is people looking to make a quick buck, who by their own admission do not understand the tech. Kaiser, the poster boy for bitcoin hype (and don't give me wrong I usually like him), posted today on twitter '#keepmining. As if coins were produced at a rate variable on how many people mine. They just don't get it.

Sprinkle media frenzy on top and you'll understand why people have little confidence in the valuation (but at the same time, like me, could very much still be in love with the platform itself).

I also don't doubt that you have far more experience trading than people like me have. What you lost though is perspective. When you look at today's 'dip', you think nothing of it. A down exchange mildly irritates you. Why? Because you are a seasoned vet who knows how to hold, and accept losses are part of the 'game'. What you don't realize is that 99% of the newbs in that Mtgox queue have been terrified today. They won't be back, and they won't bring their mates anymore. There could be 4 or 5 of these new batches. But over time, high valuation won't be sustainable anymore.

+1

Boo hoo. Worst case on all of the above is that we just go back to regular old vanilla EXPONENTIAL GROWTH with market cap doubling every five weeks.

There are much worse and far more likely scenarios than that.

I personally don't care that Bitcoin is a bubble that is going to burst.  I am late to the game and I know that.  I am taking my chances.  But I have no problem with losing my small investment and making the early adopters win out or even the smarter traders than me get my money.  The higher the bubble goes, the more serious the pop, the more notoriety Bitcoin gets.  Plus this Bitcoin is awesome and will just keep going anyway.  Even if it dies eventually, there are so many others standing by.

I like the cause and by putting money in, win or lose, I am supporting a cause and the people involved.

I would have never expected this to go from one penny to $266 bucks and that it would attract the kind of attention it did.  This is some crazy shit and I am glad to just say I was involved before ANYONE else I know.

As far as this 'flash crash' or whatever, I didn't lose much money on it, even though I bought in at the height of the bubble.  I wouldn't be surprised if the true believers and the speculators just come back stronger.  I like the idea of a bubble bursting and the unpredictability and inevitable nature of this.  The fact that hackers did a Denial of Service Attack (?), just makes this a better story that CNN, Fox and CNBC can say: "Told ya so, it's a bubble, a scam and dangerous".  But a true believer and a speculator are crazy risk takers.  We're not gonna let a bunch of hackers ruin our party and make us walk away from a kick ass bubble who knows how awesome it could have gotten.  I would rather lose my money, then know the hackers turned me into a pussy and letting them make me cry and walk away.  Get back in boys and push this thing until the wheels come off.  That's what I'm gonna do.  I don't care if I lose.  I am here for a cause, not just to make a few extra one dollar bills.

the "crash" is over people. if you didnt have your useless fiat money ready on exchanges, then you've lost out. back to 200's by tomorrow.

I doubt that.  There's some 12k BTCs to 200 right now.  By tomorrow that will have increased quite a bit.  By next week, there'll be enough resistance built up to 200 that it'll look impossible to get through.

...

Wait, so are you retarded at math, or just retarded?

Price crashed 50%
If I have $500 million worth of bitcoins, now I have $250 million bitcoins. But chances are I invested $10,000 a couple years ago, so I never actually "lost" money - and it'll be a long while before I'm anywhere close to being a "thousandaire". The bitcoin millionaires with less than 2 mil became temporary thousandaires but still did not lose money unless they started investing VERY recently as in, bought their bitcoins in the last week.

And all this talk about "newbies getting burned" - Sure, there are plenty of people who bought their first coins at $250+ a day ago only to see it back down to $160-ish this evening. Then in a week or shorter they'll see their $250 again. But how many people was that? Y'all make it seem like it's a huge percentage of newcomers that "got burned" at gox but it was only the people who (1) bought in the past 2-3 days, and (2) didn't buy any before that or had a very high DCA to begin with. That number of "newbies who got burned" is looking a bit smaller now... The people who lost money were mainly existing weak-handed panic sellers who don't understand the fundamentals. Sucks for them, but that's what you get yourself into with a high-risk investment.

The fundamentals haven't changed. But keep making your stereotypes about "evil speculators and hoarders" and pretending you know what other people do with their bitcoins - based on what, your personal perception? Y'all FUDders are starting to sound like the Occupy Wall St type - go take a shower and forget about bitcoins for a while until you're ready to accept the volatility of a high-risk investment without whining like a crybaby when someone "gets burned" for "tons of money".

I bought coins at 200+ but my DCA is still below $30 and I'm sitting on record profits; a 50% correction doesn't mean shit to me. I didn't sell anything and I still didn't "get burned." What's the difference between "lots of money" and "lots of money" ??? With the current level of merchant adoption and media attention, I'm not seeing single digit predictions as being anything other than butthurt bear propaganda. Keep dreaming. It sucks that people lost money but that's what happens in a market with such low liquidity and such high demand.

Oh noes! You mean we've already seen the all time high, Proudhon? Say it ain't so... Say it ain't so.

This could be an incorrect interpretation.  As a small-size miner, I know the difficulty has sharply risen in the last few months, yet I devote a certain set amount of time to maintaining the hardware that I have, and it is difficult to whittle that time down because the living situation I find myself in makes it uniquely difficult to maintain crypto-mining infrastructure.  I have at times thought about using that time to do other things, but I have consistently chosen to stay the course, because I sincerely believe in the concept of cryptocurrency harder than I've believed in anything.  I think that may be the sort of understanding that Kaiser is pointing toward here.

I understand the seductive ethos behind the 'let's initially treat this like a commodity and pump to stratosphere so everyone after us can adopt as currency after we all become fabulously wealthy' mentality. It puts the cart before the horse. Valuation cannot be completely divorced from fundamentals for very long. Wanting to grow this 10x higher from the previous high valuation (2B+ to $20B+, as many have said) is not asking for success, but collapse. I guess this current rise has at least served to get more money flowing on the development side, which is good.

Everyone should be focused on reasonable and steady growth in price, adoption, implementation, and development of bitcoin and related services rather than being fixated on market price. The way Bitcoin is designed, however, means that until its worth $0 it will probably do this over and over and over.....

obvious troll post, I refuse to believe anyone is actually this stupid

I don't usually agree with proudhon, but I do about this. Mid-term trend is likely down. Don't get caught by a head-fake over $200. You'll have to be patient to catch the next rally from the lows, probably several months from now. I'm expecting a low around $50, though could go lower (but I'd bet my house that it won't be single digits). Look at the price history. It takes a while to recover from a mid-term correction, but it will recover.

Have to disagree. mid-term is still up (the market kept it's parabolic shape even through this 'crash' - which means it was a reasonable correction) I'd say we'll be flirting with again before in 3 or 4 days at most.

Most speculators are now either sold and gone (the winners), scared and have no clue what they are doing (the newbies), or left holding the bag and crying in their milk (the losers).  I'm not sure where anyone believes all these new buyers are going to come from and push it back over $200 anytime soon.  Hope is a good thing but, blind faith tends to lead to sad disappointing failure.  Anyone who has experience today saw the fluctuation ($105-$266) and left for the hills.  The writing was all over the wall this week with the run up from Monday till last night.  Huge run up and massive volatility unseen before.  I saw it last night and sold.

Dunno.. I have an uncontrollable urge to post this (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_elephant).

or going long even though the price is falling!

lol

+1

So far, mostly internet services. VPN, hosting, seedboxes, stuff like that. I take my anonymity very seriously and Bitcoin is perfect for that.

I have bought a couple silver coins too, in bitcoin. But at this point they are not great for grocery shopping or paying the rent, so I use fiat directly for that.

Is there something wrong with that?

Most of the winners will keep playing.

Some of the losers will keep playing too.

We are likely to have fewer but more hardcore speculators. Not sure this will be good or bad to be honest.

No, not really.

It is the last stages of the bubble, the final 300% or so, that attracts people like you to participate. Most of the coins are held by long-term investors, who bought them at anything prior to March, 2013, at average prices of $1-$30. If they decide to cash out en masse, and newbies panic, we may easily see $30-$100 again. But no, it will not be an end of the world. During the whole 2012, bitcoin only rose less than 200%.

I will return to this thread in a month to see how it ended.

the coin will bottom at around $100, we've still got some crashing to do.

Have you been watching me!? How did you know I bought my long term gains under 30!? Granted  I broke even today, but I just didn't feel like having my family worry about my buy in anymore.

I wasn't able to make a large buy at ~$50, but the run up made me not care. Now it's all house money, and I am just gonna let it ride. Sucks if I lose it, but it's not like I really lose much after that right?

I don't know if I am in the majority or the minority, but depending on what others like myself need, they might decide that they have made enough profit and just cash out.

Lol if you bought at 5$ and didn't sell at 200$ then you missed out on a huge chance to quintuple^2 your bitcoin holdings buy buying again when it goes down

so anyone here praising 'longterm holders' as smart winners: they arent, the people that sold are the smart winners

I was there to help you out in the beginning. So you took the loan, and paid it back in 30 days, and now you're holding (the freebies) for the longest time. Nice poker, man!  ;D

The people that sold a small percentage in the 200s were smart/prudent, not the people who sold everything.

The reptile knows what's up.

Sadly I was unable to secure a loan in time for the run up :'(

However I am still doing very well for myself! I can't wait to see where bitcoin takes me in the coming years! I don't really care about the price anymore, I just want to see what happens! This has been the most profitable learning experience I have ever had! I love my bitcoins.

That works if you can see the future.


A loan to speculate? I hope you are not serious.

The newbies are always serious.