Bitcoin Forum

IMO situation is quite clear at the moment: very easy to move coins from exchange to exchange, not so easy to promptly move fiat, therefore price is likely to go down while Gox is closed.

How do you think the market react when Gox opens again?

Super deep flash crash and then recovery?
Bear market with long and continued decline like in 2011?
Fast recovery?
Where are you seeing support and resistance short and mid term?

Place your bets gentlemen.

Simple. MtGox will prove itself why its the leading exchange. It hold the largest (by far margin) fiat pool.
Coins from other exchange will pour in and increase MtGox trade volume to record high.

Other exchange? shoot themself in the head.

Hopefully they just decided to go ahead and roll out the new trade engine.  If they did, hopefully it was competently built and tested and the lag will disappear.  If they are sticking to their original release date for the new engine and are just hacking together a bandaid for the old system, expect chaos.

Yeah, but you did not answer my question. How will the market price react?

1) Not a very deep crash, they ( Mt. Gox ) were hacked yesterday. The price rebounded $23 dollars almost immediately.

2) No, value is on the way up, thanks to new ( and different ) support and indestructible bitcoin :)

3) Sure

4) Negative people are trolling out there and they will be the drag down in the price. Support comes from those who are the "financial elite" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=12156.0)

You said this in the Wall observer thread as well, however I'm not sure if you're saying that the price will drop or increase. I only hear talks about volume, and it's obvious that the volume will reach record high, especially with the 48 hours of no fee.. I'm wondering íf Gox can even handle the amount of trades that will cause..

The price goes up.
You have the right thought, easy to sell BTC but HARD to buy BTC.   ie.  Say I have 250,000 that I want to commit to BTC as an investment (about the cost of 10 Avalons in the aftermarket), how can I put it to work?  I cannot.   If you add the volume of these "exchanges", it is a JOKE.   Do not forget they double count (one trade is a buy AND a sell so true amount bought is less than half (even lower when you pull out the day traders).   With $250,000 you could dominate the buy side of all these exchanges and smash through all the offers.   
If I could buy a lot of BTC I would.

Guess where those fiats are from selling btc at 200? 160?....

It's going down obviously.

1. The people that were buying are now selling.
2. The people that are holding aren't doing anything.
3. People are cashing out, and by that I mean selling and withdrawing the fiat straight to their bank accounts.

From the moment Gox opens the trend is downwards. It's just going to create more panic, more fear, and ultimately lead to a drop to <$50 maybe even <$30.

Let's just add in to the mix the possibility of something else going horribly wrong, oh I don't know lets just say one of the other exchanges got hacked as is a common occurrence in Bitcoins history. With the right variables we could even go <$10.

The majority will rush to get their money out of Mt. Gox and flood other exchanges causing them issues.  Mt. Gox will probably still have too much load and continue to lag and crash.

The sell off will continue down to the $30-$50 range and take months or over a year to ever get close to $100 again.

You mean flash crash and then immediately back to +$200? Or you are saying that those who sold at $160 will be queing up to buy like crazy at $123.40 (Gox last price)?

Would you like to make a bet on it?   Can anyone craft a bet for the over/under of the price at say 4PM Eastern time tomorrow?

Why would anyone queue to buy at $123.40 when they can buy at $88 right now on another exchange?

No they CANNOT.   Explain to me how I can buy 10,000 USD of bitcoin RIGHT NOW on any other exchange?  You would have to have an account open with them AND have USD sitting in that account.

Supply and demand. Its not easy to send fund into exchange that has volume to buy. (I'm talking large fund).

I find its idiotic to speculate on the price based on other exchanges' price. Look at what Gox's crash done to other exchanges. What make you think its the other way around now.

That is an interesting prediction, I will have to keep tabs on it.

is it possible to somehow transfer $ from gox account , to other exchange right now ?

wow... speechless  ::)

The exchange hold the biggest fiat fund is the one that decide the price idiot.

I didn't say they could immediately buy on any exchange.  Any person with sense would be transferring their money to another exchange and only put buys in at $88 on Mt. Gox.  A transfer usually takes me around an hour or so.

no

its obvious with that grim outlook you're desperately trying to get back in the game I assume.. Good luck with that prediction

Guess lots of people will get rid of their coins - otherwise others will buy all up.

If you think people aren't going to be trying to get their funds out of Mt. Gox instead of buying more coin at overvalued prices then I think you are the idiot.  Every prediction I've made so far has come true.  I sold Tuesday night at 1600% and announced it in my first thread Wed. morning before the crash.

Price discovery is occurring on the other exchanges.  I just logged on to Bitfloor.  It's humming along on heavy volume.  The order book is deeper than I've ever seen it.  The price there is $92.99.

When Gox re-opens, my guess is the price will drop to match the other exchanges.

Prove it, go transfer your fund to other exchange and see for yourself

Does anyone want to bet on the UNDER for Mt Gox at $88 VWAP for some period tomorrow?

+1 If I could quickly get money anywhere selling, especially BTC-E etc, I would be on that like a fat kid on a cup cake.

Cheap bitcoins tomorrow! Maybe even cheaper the next day!

Yay!

I moved my money out of Mt. Gox last night but, thanks anyway.

Well that's pretty bullish, if there are a lot like you then as soon as Gox opens price goes up

Yeah, but I am a long term thinker. If I bought today and tomorrow the price fell, it doesn't matter. I'd buy more all the way to the floor, long term we will recover just like in 2011. By then I'll have amassed a nice collection of cheap coins.

Edit: I am mining on unmetered power as well, just gonna be banking those coins. I also don't invest more than I can reasonably afford to loose.

I'm a long term thinker too when I feel things are priced at a reasonable value based on fundamentals and not speculation.  Then I'm a major bull.


As soon as speculation starts and the price starts to sky rocket with no major changes in fundamentals I become a short term bear and sell at a huge profit.   I determine the date to sell when I start seeing the trend going sideways and volatility increasing.  The run up from Monday morning to Tuesday night (with never before seen volatility) was my signal to profit.  That way I can buy back in low and have even more coin.  For me that is better long term to have more than pretend like I own Exxon stock or something not speculated out of control as BTC was at $200+.  To each his own I guess.

So idiot, you say you can move the fund from MtGox to your bank and deposit it to other exchange in less than 12hrs?

Because transfer fund from MtGox to other exchanges is NOT possible. Dumbass.

I think people will panic sell during the weekend and the price may crash much more than you think is possible...

I am a buyer between 10-20$, if it goes down to 0,01 i dont care, I just buy and hoard more coins the more it crashes.

No I never said that.  I moved my funds to a bank account.  I said I couldn't move it from Mt. Gox because, I transferred funds out.  When you assume you make an ass of yourself.  And when you called me an idiot your showed me you have no real argument and have to resort to name calling.  I have an 8 year old nephew who does the same thing.

Edit - I have transferred BTC but not USD from Mt. Gox.  I have no idea what the limitations are from one exchange to another after you sell Bitcoin.

Yeah, I wish I had employed that strategy, I'd have alot more to invest in more coins now.

Then again, hindsight is 20/20. Once I get my temporal displacement device running, I'll be able to make perfect predictions everytime. Stay tuned.

So i was right on my point? You're an idiot talking BS....." why would i buy higher on MtGox when i can easily transfer fund to other exchange"

You didnt predict crap, if thats your intelligent. lol

How is that a realistic choice then to say people would prefer $88 @ BTC-e over $120 @ Gox? It's a stupid false choice. 90% of all US dollars capable of buying BTC when Gox opens in 8 hours are situated in accounts at Mt.Gox.  The real choice is $120 @ Gox or the price @ BTC-e 2 days from now (MINIMUM) when your fiat arrives. Don't be dense.

I wonder how much of a difference the change of servers will make...
Does anyone still hold bitcoins?

I love how this is the second time gox's incompetence has turned a market correction into something more damaging to bitcoin as a whole

and here we are, with thread after thread of people waiting to log right back in

it's hard to stay hopeful for the future.  even with bitcoin.  proudhon, do you have a fan club?

Well considering they are offering 0% fee for 48 hours, they must be pretty confident..

i would expect to see UP DOWN UP DOWN UP DOWN UP DOWN UP DOWN for a while once it reopens.

clearly their will be lot of money to be made for those who have the balls to try and stablize the price, by buying when they think its low and selling when they think its high.

Well we have an interesting situation here. The minority of BTC on other exchanges has the opportunity to set a price.

But Mt Gox can duly stick two fingers up to that as either the bears clutch at straws or the bulls set this price at a reasonable level (ie, holds $120).

All I know is, with free trades for 48 hours I will be in (and out) of the market (and in). And out.

You have to look at previous highs as support lines, in this case, anything pre-2013 is around the $30 mark.

If we close tomorrow below that then Bitcoin has some growing up to do before we get it out of the cupboard again.

I dunno, might be fun.

If you know me, you can. You will have to send me 100% of the amount in BTC as a guarantee. I can buy in any exchange as I have money in all of them. For a fee, of course. The ones doing this will make a killing tomorrow as they did today, irrespective of what happens to the price.

I don't believe it will go sub-$20. I am not the only arbitrageur out there. Everybody wants bitcoins. If you don't believe me, sell yours to me.

when they will resume trading site soon will lag due to cumulated traffic and go offline.

what about the price? seems you forgot btc price is mostly base on speculation that more and more people will want them. when price for growing like crazy indeed many wanted to go in, but not anymore. media will soon publish stories about people who lost money on it. no new people will come, and old people won't want to hold their coins or buy more when they will be losing value every day. big crash in inevitable.

more trouble will be coming in following days. people who were holding btc is one thing, but think also about people who hold BFL preorder.

Quite a good description of the long bear market we had in 2011.

It can go to 5$, I'm not moving my BTC to fiat.

I want to generate more bitcoins for future by trading, don't care about my initial investment and value of my coins at this time.

It's a money I've said goodbye at moment I invested it and all I want from it is more bitcoins - my time at right price will come :)

what do you think?

http://www.shouldibuybitcoins.com/

Yesterday this site it said Yes you should buy.  There are different types of investors and if you like long term pain without no short term gain I'd recommend listening to this site's advice.

You are a smart man, and you are the future of bitcoin, not the speculators.

And btw: I'm quite sure that the weakest point of BTC is its vulnerability to speculation. Sure, FBIA cannot effectively attack the p2p network or wipe out the technology, but the FED can pump and dump and pump and dump and pump and dump... effectively ruining the lives of a lot of people. And there goes your store of value.

Personally I don't care much whether the price goes up or down. I simply try to transfer as much of my paycheck as possible into BTC and hold, hold, hold.

I'm not enough of a trader to predict short-term prices. All I know is that the narrative of BTC is so logical that it is the only rational choice. Of course, with all the FUD that's being spread around it might take years for most people to penetrate the media hype and grasp that. In the meantime I know that every BTC I buy will be worth more in the future, no matter what I pay for it.

If I had heard about BTC in 2011 and bought at the peak, even now after the recent crash I would have still have a 100% gain.

As for where the price will go after Gox opens again, I assume that with my luck it will probably hit $300 before my fiat deposit is accepted (I don't buy at Gox). But if I'm lucky, the guys at Mt. Lag are continuing their incompetence streak and the lag will depress the market long enough for me to get my next transfer through and buy more BTC.

You have the trade I say cannot be done backwards.   I am saying for people that believe in bitcoin and have CASH (fiat), you CANNOT get that cash into one of these exchanges in quantity to BUY bitcoin.   But, you CAN move BTC quickly and SELL it.   That makes the selling pressure high.   Great buying opportunity that we can just sit and watch....

You realize that at current price, the new bitcoins generated per day, will be worth a mere $75,000.


There is no chance in hell that price would go to $10 for any time over 60 seconds if any exchange is able to take orders. It would mean $15,000 per day.

Seriously now.

So, why aren't you buying with all your fiat in all exchanges right now? Are you thinking it will be even lower or are you strictly arbitraging?

This is so exciting. Anything can happen when  MtGox reopens trade.

There are trades slowly going on on mtgox...?

Here's my question though, and it may be a dumb question, but going to ask anyways...

Those people who are panic selling right now and have their BitCoins in MTGOX, right now they can transfer those BTCs out of MTGOX. Why would they wait until MTGOX came back up to sell? Why wouldn't they just transfer their BTC's out now and go sell them on a different exchange if they are needing to "get out immediately"?

Are people just not aware they can do that? If you're in a panic, wouldn't you try and unload your BTCs now instead of waiting for MTGOX to come back up?

That's why I am wondering if when it comes back up, if there is going to be a shit load of buying going on or selling. If it were me and I was needing to recoup my "rent money" or whatever funds that I couldn't afford to lose, I'd be moving them to a different exchange ASAP and unloading them while I still could.

I could log onto my Gox account earlier and aside from the big red "trading halted" notification, it appears the account was fine.  I presume you could move coins out but I didn't try anything.

True. However, I am guessing that the majority that are selling off right now and are panicking don't have over 100BTC to withdraw? Maybe I am wrong, but it seems as if over the past 2 weeks there was a major influx of people buying. With prices over the $75-$100/mark, they would have been investing $7500+. How many of the "Get Rich Quick" folks plunked down enough $ to cover 100BTC in that short of time? I dunno, maybe I am wrong and people REALLY WERE that stupid to invest their life savings into it. I was guessing that more people probably did a few hundred dollars. Money that was meant for their rent or car payment or monthly bills. Are people who have been in the game for years selling off in a panic? Why would they be doing so during a crash? Even if the price drops to $50BTC, they're still holding more than they did when they invested. I dunno, just sitting here bored since everything is pretty much frozen and was wondering why people aren't cashing out through other exchanges if they are needing whatever is left of their money asap.

I am sitting here wondering how low it will go. I am not going to let this scare me off like it obviously has 10's of thousands of other people who freaked over the last few days. I am going to sit here for the long haul. I'm looking more at months and years rather than days.

BTC withdrawals from MTGox work just fine during the trading closure. I know because I have withdrawn BTC from MTGox about 3 hours ago.

3hours and 35mins left

but will they open on time?

Has anyone successfully transferred BTC into their MTGox account during the closure?

Just days ago I read about there is a new circuit break system developed for stock exchange to avoid such kind of flash crash, seems MtGox need one too

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jitters-as-flash-crash-response-rules-take-effect-2013-04-08 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jitters-as-flash-crash-response-rules-take-effect-2013-04-08)

Of course not! Is MtGox!! This is going to last through the weekend. We know Mark fat-ass Karpeles!

+1
The price is low because USD liquidity is much lower in these other less known exchanges.

MtGox was almost always at the forefront when it was time to sell at the highest price.

MtGox is was also the best place to make big purchases (1m$+).

The real believer in bitcoin don't hold more USD in an exchange than they need.

As for the price, safe to say between 100 and 200$ in 24hrs

when i want to get to mt.lag it says:

Database access error, please retry later

fkn holy sheit: i did send sepa € towards gox two days ago. it will for sure be to late on my account to buy cheap. but soon enough to be gone completly when gox crashes all the way.

This begs the question of "will MtGox servers actually stay up this time". The answer is: not likely. They still have nothing to handle DDOS or load spikes. Good luck..

Last price:$78.05000 5 minutes after the open.  Been waiting all day to see this happen.  Now who is an idiot??? HAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!