Bitcoin Forum

Several factors including China’s economic situation have made the Bitcoin surge different from what was the case in 2013 when the price first rose above the $1000 tag but later reversed. As a result, the rising price of Bitcoin today is not likely to suffer a similar fate. Going by its record up till 2016, Bitcoin has put several economic theories in doubt and come up with an established price that cuts across multiple exchanges. Below are some of the observed factors that made it happen:



http://news.8btc.com/why-bitcoin-price-may-not-crash-like-2013

all rapid grows in a market must have rapid lowering of price, action = reaction
but i agree, this time it is more value gains than speculation, it will be lowered but no to 500$ range or 700$ range but maybe to 800$ only :)

I don't think it's going to crash like it did in 2013 at all. Last time bitcoin rose from $200 to $1200 in one month which is part of why it crashed so hard. This time it's taken over two years. This is why I don't think it's going to crash at all. It's taken years for it's price to slowly and healthily rise, despite the bad reputation it's been given after 2013. I think this price is here to stay.

As per I think personally as First of all Bitcoin is most predefined successful experiment combined with blockchain and cryptography technology. In 2013 people who help to reach price of Bitcoin to $1151 and then dump to $211 till 2014. But after well advertisement, awareness and advantages  of blockchain technology with various application and few Organization participation along with altcoin creation, bitcoin become master currency among crypto market. Due to long sustainability with promising features, bitcoin become popular so currently have no chance to happen crash like as 2013.

As well people are interesting to enter in to new era of economics and revolutionary finance system. This interest giving born to new decentralized platform and other various perspectives which are beneficial for future of human being with more control and transparency.

Currently bitcoin have biggest share of market capital and in future it will increase rapidly.

the biggest problem with people these days seems to be that they know all about the price coming down from $1200 in 2013 but for some reason they don't know (or don't want to know) why price went up that time and how it went up. they just heard about the drop and never bothered to look at a chart after.

I doubt it'll crash like 2013, especially considering that right now we're looking at something otherwise unprecedented and completely new to what we'd normally see from Bitcoin.

2013 was also heavily manipulated by bots, while this recent rise appears to be mostly organic and there appears to be a lot of normal buy orders and sell orders made by real people, and not algorithms. They have a part, but it seems like people are finally, really invested.

Good point.  Another difference, as pointed out by TD, is that we have all sorts of derivatives like longs and shorts.

http://8btc.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=6470&page=308#pid587066

The last time we saw these prices, it was artificially pushed by the Willy bot and not human intervention. This time, no bot seems to be pushing the price, so it might just last a little longer than before. We might also just see some higher prices, if this trend continues.

Uncertain economic times will always push people to invest in safe havens and Bitcoin as a commodity has proven itself as a commodity that can retain value in uncertain economic times. ^smile^

Yes I might agree in this part. Although we can still seeing some attempt of manipulation, it was only a triggering thing now and can't dictate the output as a whole. Meaning at least in most of the cases, there are real investors putting some money in this cryptocurrency and increasing more while time passes by.

This is totally different way back 2013 where volumes can be faked and it's quite easy to make a FUD that makes people panic whether to act like a bull or a bear.

Dont kid urself. Its all bots. Do you think china really trades over 30 million btc a day? Thats laughable.

Bitcoin has taken a long time to get to the price that it is at now. Back in 2013, Bitcoin was younger and the price was rising much much faster and when it started to go down, it just crashed. I don't think that the same thing will happen because the price is steadily going up instead of jumping up a lot in one go.

Still the bitcoin is vulnerable to crash but not big like the one that happen in 2013 and in bitfinex hacking. Some factors like increased acceptance, limited supply and uneasy world economy will continue to push the bitcoin price upward.

It might not as, so far, the price increase hasn't gone exponential yet.  The curve is steepening though, 40% in a month is a big increase.
Everyone needs to decide for themself if they are happy sitting on paper profits that might crash in value, or if they want to have a fiat profit.

If the price crashed to $700, we couldn't really complain. I personally want to see a crazy bubble like last time, something like $4000 per coin would be great, even if it wasn't sustainable.

the huge volume any of the exchanges report has some percentage of fake report in it without an exception and that is mostly for publicity and competing with each other in ranking. and also i have to add that those Chinese exchanges that you are looking at have 0 trading fee and that makes any trade with even smallest change easily doable hence increasing the trading volume 10 times more.
but it has not much to do with the price rise of bitcoin.

Bitcoin now has more users compared with 2013.

More users means a more stable market and therefore a more stable market price.

That doesn`t mean that the btc price won`t go down in the future.

I am fan of fundamental analysis and I partially agree with your statement on the note that bitcoin won’t crash like 2013 but I think (probably Einstein thought that before me) every action has equal and opposite reaction so if bitcoin has risen $1000 then it will at least fall by 10% or 20% in the near future and then will head towards new record.  

In simple example, it will grow like,
1 – 2 – 3 – 4 – 3 – 2 – 4 – 5 – 6 – 7 – 8 – 7 -6 -7 -8 - 9

and not like,
1 – 2 – 3 – 4 – 5 – 6 – 7 – 8 – 9 – 10 – 11 – 12 - 13 -14 -15 - 16

Well for starters anything who has price action can have it's footing known as a support. Through out the years Bitcoin will develop it. It is like a common ground in which the price will bounce back when it touches the invisible line. Also we can say that Bitcoin is still on its up trend we don't need to worry to another crash with Bitcoin. And with a price crashing we can take advantage of it by buying more Bitcoin on a cheap price.

But for a total newbie, it will take lots of courage to pay 1100 USD for just one bitcoin.

It must be complete foolishness if we expect exact things to happen like 2013. Still I expect similar patterns to happen. Like new ATH and then some pull back. But why not we expect the new ATH above $2000 or even $10k levels.

Anyway this gives me extra hope to keep on holding my bitcoins. I will be tension free like whether to book profits or just carry on. I will holding tight.

Luckily bitcoin is divisible up to 8 decimal places

You can pay $1.1 for 1mbtc.

Obviously it will not crash just around passing previous ATH - it will crash when it will reach 30 times previous ATH.

It doesn't stop people investing in the FTSE or Dow! I was buying Bitcoin at around $250, but above $500 I am happy to hold, but not buy more.
Buy the ATH isn't my thing, but then I miss the top of a lot of bubbles. I bought a Dax tracker a few years ago when it was at 5000, I sold at 6000, it has continued up to 11000 or so now!

I guess what I am saying is, people will keep buying, they might get burned, but they could also just be at the bottom of the curve and be big in profit in no time.

Yes, your comment is very interesting. I agree with your ideas. it may not crash or fall deeply.
nowadays, many people have known bitcoin already and the utilities have been created by bitcoin.
so the increase of bitcoin price in this year is very different with the year of 2013.

It took lot of time to secure it's position and crossed the 1000$ mark, i hope it will not crash like 2013 because there are many aspects that need to be consider in 2013 many don't have any idea about what is bitcoin and why the price is very high even now many countries like India, venuzula have banned their higher notes and planning for cashless transaction. It indicates many countries are enforcing their people to go with digitally currency,now the most valued digital currency is bitcoin.

Many big promotion are being made by bitcoin users like bitcoin is one biggest in coming years will accept world widely, and many technologies have implemented with these three years so ultimately bitcoin community is keep increasing. So this time i don't think there is down fall for bitcoin again because it took nearly 3 three years to secure it's mark above 1000$.

Oh Bitcoin will crash don't worry about that. The question is where and when will the exchanges pop setting of the next round of accumulation.

I think it will happen any time soon as the market simply can't continue to push the price further without the market taking some sort of a break.

That's why I once again took this opportunity to cash out some profits between $1050-$1060. I am happily waiting to see whether or not the correction will kick in any time soon.

If it happens, then I have my fiat ready to buy back more coins for the same amount of money. That will feel really good. If the price continues to go up, then it's fine as well as I have enough coins left.

We've seen steady and healthy growth in 2016 with lots of entry points for people to buy in or accumulate more.
2013 was completely different.A crazy run in 4 weeks which obviously was not sustainable and probably manipulated by one big exchange which had more than 60% of the whole trading volume at that time.
So much has changed during the last 3 years.Over 150 exchanges worldwide!Much more businesses accepting Bitcoin!A U.S. President where a part of his board advisors is PRO Bitcoin!
Fiat currencies devaluing in a rapid phase in certain countries! NIRP/ZIRP!
The big money is having an eye on Bitcoin! Think about guys like Bill Gross! Probably/hopefully an ETF getting approved soon!

Yes we will see some correction!This is good, this is healthy! But as long as we don't see a major issue like a hack, theft or whatever I doubt we will see a crash like 2013!
Let's hope for the best and cross your fingers!

That is right. There is no price bubble in 2016. I hope there is no bubble this year as well.

There may be minor pull backs, but is Bitcoin going to lose 50% of its value in a matter of weeks.
That is what I would define as a crash in Bitcoin terms.

Yeah, when speaking of a rise in price followed by a crash, we must not forget about December of 2013, lol.

I don't think it will crash for the following reasons:
- institutional investor interest is really picking up steam now
- much broader user base
- BTC markets are much more liquid than in January 2014.  Professional, KYC/AML compliant exchanges and retail customer-friendly on-ramps such as Coinbase.
- global "war on cash" is really a war on individual liberty.  BTC solves a problem that gold can't (how can one get value out of an authoritarian country?).
- I agree with Brian Armstrong that BTC will become the digital "reserve currency"

Yeah but its a big scammy lie. All the owners selling and buyng into themselves making huge orders when the books are thin. Its so easy to spot too just by looking at the recent trades and the order books.

Shorts whale have to liquidate on OKCoin.

@OP, you need to change your title to:

Why bitcoin will crash like 2013


LOL

Looks like a crash is happening! I'm just surprised how many of these long-time forum members ARE so wrong to say crashes will never happen now. Who wants to buy $1000 bitcoins? Most people in the world can't even afford to buy toilet papers, let alone expensive virtual coins for thousand dollars a piece.

So on 1/5/17 it falls 22% (currently down 16% from high today).

From 7/30/16 to 8/1/16 it fell 29%.
From 6/19/16 to 6/22/16 it fell 29%.
On 1/14/16 it fell 17%.
From 11/9/15 to 11/10/15 it fell 23%.

All of these stats cherry pick the highest to lowest points on the worst days in the last 15 months.
All of these falls quickly recovered (i.e. very few trades actually took place at the low points).
All of these falls occurred after sharp rises, and the new equilibrium points settled higher than the old equilibrium points before the rise.

Before you start comparing to 2013/14, you first have to argue why this is anything different from the other setbacks during the current bull run that started in October 2015.

Be glad we didn't get up to $2000. Had it crashed there who knows where it would have stopped. Definitely not going to crash like 2013 though.

Its more stable than ever before so maybe it can hold the prices more, it crashed today a bit but I expect a rising soon.

I agree.  I look at the history of bitcoin and saw that the ATH was last Dec. 2014, then soon after the price crashed until it below $200. The situation of Bitcoin is different from 2014.  We can see more people who are participating in Bitcoin economy.  Aside from that, there are many company that supports bitcoin than those early years.

The world were changed, today is 2017 and many people, countries, corporations, investors that adopted bitcoins.
So  bitcoin's price will not back to $200 is like 2013 although it is just prediction,
But many new exchangers, new comunities of digital coins and bitcoin become benchmark for other coins.

Those people should buy bitcoin, then they can afford more one day ;)

In 2013, Bitcoin was not as popular and trusted as it is now in 2017. So at that time people sold all, thinking it can be the End of bitcoins but now in 2017 everyone knows that bitcoin is the future of digitial world and there are lots of bitcoin shops and projects in progress which make it impossible for bitcoin to crash badly.

A lot has happened in those 4 years.

Many people have joined the bitcoin world and halving occurred recently.

Yes, the bitcoin community must be bigger than what we had three years back. This will definitely support bitcoin prices not to fall in similar manner. I guess this mass adoptions reason must be more than enough for bitcoin prices to hold at current levels itself.

As per 200 days moving average, if prices sustain above $800 will lead to $900 and $950 so easily.

There is many reasons that can answer this question and mainly because :
1- there is no Mtgox
2- more users, more volume exchanged...

The greatest impact on the crash had China and their fake bans every month. The fall was started by Gox, but was continued by the lack of positive news that caused an outflow money from bitcoin to fiat.
Take a look at the charts from 2014. The initial wave, we could call it Gox wave, took us down from around 1150USD to 450USD between December and May. By that time the Gox situation was clear, they were out of the picture. The real depression started in August 2014 and dragged the price below 200USD.

Yeah, I've heard the stories that at that time it was sort of a fake price growth. I mean, the price really hit $1k+ but it was due to some circumstances and now it is just the real price. The price is dropping but it is not dropping that fast. And yet it seems too unreal to me that the price can really be around $1k stable now. People don't trust bitcoin that much. They do like such a price but the problem is that they don't believe it is going to grow even more and spoil everything by their selling.

Compared to those days bitcoin is less volatile as well its user rate, adoption, acceptance and investment through bitcoin has increased to higher extent. This helps the price to stabilize in a short time, if something happens similar to a crash too.

The biggest problem with 2013 was that it went up like 4x within 1 month. All driven by madness at MtGox. In retrospect Bitcoin was not ready for $1000 in 2013. It's more than ready today.

The price of Bitcoin has given very unfamiliar trends in the currency prices across the globe. I think it will not crash like it did in 2013 but will continue having unpredictable behaviours and therefore predicting will be very difficult.

What happened in 2013 is different with this year, price crash were occurred due to an exchange got hacked.
So, if this year there is security issue again, the price will fall down for sure.
Those factors mentioned affected bitcoin in certain way to developing but not to hold the price.

The price of bitcoin wont crash like we have seen earlier because the volume and liquidity are really high than we had in 2013.The prices are recovering as we speak and i am sure the price will cross the $1000 mark in a couple of months time.

This is true bitcoin wont crash its price just like on 2013 same as you said because it do really have a good support and now it gradually increasing again and reaching again the $1k price which really makes me excited thats why its the best time to buy more bitcoin if we like to earn profits when bitcoins price hits again the mark.

This time crash was created not by market collapsing under pressure of but rather was created by bad news of imminent bitcoin ban/harsh regulations issued by China.
We have no idea where this pump would end (I assume we would reach new ATH this time) if it wasn't abruptly ended by exaggerated rumors.

I advise y'all ta shut yo black asses up an' HODL!  Thangs ain't totally different this time, but they a lil' bit different.   We spiked up, then we din't cras nearly as hard, an' lookie where we at rite naw.  Almost $900 again!!!

Never say never, but I don't rule out massive crashes from the level of going from +$1000 to -$200 in a relatively short period of time. Mainly because of the fact that this market is, and will always be subject to plenty of drama. One time an exchange gets "hacked" where the price starts tanking heavily, and another time fud news from China makes people sell like there is no tomorrow. It's no coincidence at all that it mostly happens after the price has gone up. It's a planned attack where the people behind it are making millions time on time again.

Well the fake price growth are really not fake. Bitcoin's price can change it depends on how some people control it. Like in stocks there are people who are ready to buy and buy in order to fake a break out and later on they will be the once selling on top that is why it will go back down in just a matter of days. People can control the price temporarily but not permanently.

For sure there is many implicated factors that may be common or not in both situation and I remember when bitcoin was at $200 and some people announced the end of the bitcoin's world
Anyway i see the price crossing $900 in barely all the exchanges now  :)

There is no MtGox? I haven't looked at the numbers but I'm confident that Coinbase has a larger if not equal user base than MtGox had, so they could pull something just like MtGox did, no? Or maybe because they're based in the US they wouldn't get away with it?

People that are trading way back 2013 are veterans now, assuming they were newbie back then, and somehow Chinese News have less effect to them than year 2013.   In addition to that, there are more people that is supporting bitcoin today and are willing to catch those weakhands coins.  As result, price never go down to sub $700.

Four long years have passed since that event occurred and the bitcoin as well as the economic circumstances that surround it have changed radically. There is no solid basis for believing that a similar event could happen these days again because the bitcoin ecosystem is much stronger and consolidated than it was then.

Crash of 2013 wasn't caused by inexperience of traders. It was caused by Mt.Gox collapse (among other things).
We all know that during ATH Mt.Gox was already out of commission and wasn't processing selling orders at all.
Soon after that price of BTC collapsed.

True and because of that event plenty of people has lost their trust in bitcoin and they all sold their bitcoins and never came back. I think the world is skeptical in investing in it because of this dark history of bitcoins. If there would be another crash it will never crash like how it happened in 2013. I think people who use it today would try very hard to prevent that event from ever happening again.

MtGox had many problems - constant performance issues, outages, unable to handle user influx (slow verification). These issues which were not resolved for years. In retrospect that it would eventually collapse is hardly a surprise. What made people wire them money (especially since Bitstamp was established) I really don't understand. If there was not the hack there would be some other issue which would eventually bring it to its knees - unless they had enough time to be bought but that would probably not happen under that leadership.

Well, it will not crash like that year because there are many bitcoin users nowadays and it is still going up. Though the problem of bitcoin is its price and making it used in all stores. Still, the users are still increasing and still increasing.

the chances of a crash like 2013 is zero for sure and the chances of a crash is also nearly zero and i only say nearly because bitcoin is unpredictable but in fact that is also zero.
people usually see only the change, they don't look at the bigger picture. they see $100 rise they think we are going to the moon but in fact it was a temporary tiny rise.
 and also when they see $100 drop after a $200 rise they panic and start saying bitcoin is dead. and that is just a correction if they use their brains.

I am happy with its flow right now compare to 2013 that it was manipulated by  a bot. Really, the economics applies in bitcoin, although a lot of users sells their bitcoin last 2 weeks ago but then, a lot of investors are just waiting for the bitcoin to at least lower the price for even  $200-300 then they'll buy and that is one of the reason.

It could be like that, but judging from the difference, I now see a lot of people do trading Bitcoin is not just buying and selling. But there is no treatment, although how Bitcoin price goes down, then the Bitcoin price is down but not significantly.
If my opinion, this is due to the human factor, which owns and controls Bitcoin itself. The more people who have Bitcoin and the more people who trade Bitcoin than when the year 2013.

2017 has just started and it's really difficult to say it won't crash, as of now we don't know what president elect will do. Will China do more harm or will it do some good. If the economy improves over all, btc may be hit the positives are it's widely been recognised, more and more people are coming to it. It's improving and over all it looks promising let's see what turns it takes.

Thats not possible to happen again crashing like 2013, it happens because many were being to panic selling and lack of proper knowledge is the main reason why those investors were having decisions like that. But for these years buyers increased same with those sellers, so the bitcoin price is nearly proportional to both demand and supply, and the circulation of bitcoin is really healthy by means of marketing particularly tradings of altcoins.

In 2013 the market was smaller, there were fewer users, less liquidity and there were not many exchanges, the main one being Mt. Gox. Nowadays the situation is quite different. There is a larger user base, more exchanges and even high profile investors putting money into it.
All this favors the existence of a more stable market, with increasing and real demand, causing that the price is not only result of manipulation.

Price is only going up.
There may be some small losses, but overall the price will continue to grow.
Buy when the price drops and HODL.
Its only going to take one big app or website to start accepting payments in Bitcoin for the price to reach an new ATH and stay there.

Few of the major factors were the technology, adoption, acceptance, volatility, market capital. In terms of technology now its continuously getting updated compared to the days with Mtgox. Adoption and acceptance of bitcoin and other coins were increasing based upon the backing technology. Volatility is much reduced which makes users to consider it as a currency. Capital has grown in a sudden to a big range of $4m.

Coinbase would definitely be able to pull something exactly like MtGox off and get away with it, despite being based in the US. I highly doubt any kind of investigation would be high-tech enough to prove that a hack was staged, nor would they be able to uncover a fake hack or digital heist.

Also, I doubt a 2nd MtGox will have as strong or as lasting an impact on prices... I believe users and traders have learnt from MtGox.

After a pull down from over$1100 to $750 the bitcoin market or price has remained in normal currencies recovery mode. The price has a steady progressive and tranquil movement. As am posting bitcoin is trading at $898 and to me, it is a good development. The enemies of bitcoin what it to full completely as it happened in 2013 but bitcoin has developed and got stronger for now than then. I specifically expect bitcoin prices to be above $2000 by the end of 2017.

You definitely have a lot confidence in the price this year. I am optimistic, but nothing close to your level. I am just pointing my target at maintaining the $1000 level for longer than just a few days. But at this point, I don't know how realistic it really is since I consider anything over $800 to be a fair price in terms of where we stand right now. I am sure that the activation of segwit will give the price a healthy push forward. But then again, no indication of activation yet.

in 2013 bitcoin price is crash and down
because mt.gox is problem
big exchanger problem, can down bitcoin price
same with case bitfinex in 2016, bitfinex hack in bitcoin balance and then bitcoin price is down
and now in 2017, nothing problem

Well I think bitcoin price will not crash like what happened in 2013 because bitcoin have more user now compare to 2013,

there are a lot of user so that means that the demand for bitcoin got more higher than before and I think that is the reason why the price keeps on getting high.

I do not think It will happen like 2013. because you can find the price pump reason. It is happened first due to Halving and christmas and holiday pump moved bitcoin to the peak. Again it fall to lower than 800$  and now again boosting to 900$.

You are right. 2013 to 2017, 4 years of bitcoin journey. Bitcoin has gained popularity , interest and confidence of million of users. Also there are now lots of sites which accepts bitcoins and also sites which solely relay on bitcoins like Dice Sites, Bitcoin bets etc. All these things will never let the bitcoin price down now.

   Indeed bitcoin seems much stronger now then back then, and along with that bitcoin have much more followers now, and bitcoin is accepted on more places now then back then. This 3 factors are big enough reasons why bitcoin will not face the same crash like 4 years ago.
   And looks like price is recovering, bottom was under 800$ and until then price is going up. Now we are around 900, last night when I look price was couple dollars more, today (now) price is little under 900$.

Yeah, back then things were harder for Bitcoin for a lot of reasons. There were few exchanges. Mt. Gox, the most popular at the time, was manipulating the price, according to some people who study the market, until the house of cards collapsed. But luckily things have changed a lot since then.

I think that is the main difference. Back then, there are very few users and exchanges, that makes the market easily manipulated. Right now, the users are diverse and there are different exchanges. SO one exchange manipulating the price does not have that much effect compared before. If ever one gets hacks, the price may drop but we can recover quickly from it. Unlike in 2013, we got stuck in a low price for too long.

probably because this is a pure price increase. in 2013, the price of bitcoin manipulated such that the price reached $ 1,000. but this year, the price of bitcoin ride height by itself. so, I think the decline that occurred in recent days, caused only by panic selling.

So far the price of Bitcoin ranging only in between 800$ to 900$ and up. fro what happened way back 2013 it will also be happen now this 2017. It is because the demand of the community is rapidly existingly happening now.

The bitcoin price is rising slowly, so it will not crash a lot.