Bitcoin Forum

breaking the support at $50 is imminent.

1-MONTH 6-HOUR SCALE:

1 and 3 are simple oscillators

2 is a moving-average based oscillator

4 is a directional index plus a momentum oscillator

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http://s3.postimg.org/88rao61lf/bearpicture.png

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1. RSI is no longer overbought, and is resting comfortably in the lower (bearish) zone, but i highly suspect the market will over-correct for all that red, red exuberance with at least a little more blue. until we spend significant time in the oversold region, i would not be comfortable holding coins.

2. remember when the daily MACD (blue) bounced off the EXP (purple) on the way up from $100 (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg120zigDailyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi2gMACDzvzl)? that was very bullish. the inflection here is just the opposite.

3. Money Flow Index has not even yet dipped into oversold territory to compensate for its own red, red exuberance. the mid-line ("50") bounce corresponding to the failure of the $100 support is an extremely bearish indicator here.

4. accelerating momentum line (blue) on the ADX, is paired for the first time in over a month with a red-above-green bear market indicator. (the two other times this month we had red-above-green, the momentum line was decreasing. these events correspond with corrections, not market reversals).

thank you for your time.

-arepo

if you profit from me, help keep it free!
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz

FOLLOW-UP:

we're presently seeing some slight bullish action that was forecast by the above FIG 4 (bottom). The inflection (peaking) of the RED directional index in the ADX with a divergent BLUE momentum line indicates a correcting downward trend. i do not expect this to last long, 24 hours or less. we may retrace significantly, but not past $100, and the downtrend will resume thereafter.

Now this is an analysis thread, unlike this detritus (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=171147.0).

Carry on.

Excellent analysis. For me, the fact that RSI touched 30 for the first time since December, failed to bounce, and is still heading down is also a very bearish signal.

Nah, $50 is probably the bottom.

WHAT

almost fainted seeing proudhon write that?

If proudhon is going bull, I'm selling all my BTC right now. bottom at $5.

It's not the only thread where he has posted this. I think he is really trying to mindfuck you guys now. :D

I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT THOSE GRAPHS MEAN.

But I'm gonna thank you for your input despite the fact I really dislike it!

THANKS MATE

Edit: Dislike it as far as your forecasts predictions :(

BOTTOM CONFIRMED AT $0.01
SELL BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE

it's intuitive, but overwhelming at first.

the labels at the top should help a bit:

1 and 3 are simple oscillators

oscillators like the RSI and the Money Flow Index are mathematical functions that transform price and volume data into a value that oscillates between bounds like 0 and 100.

high values mean that the general 'cumulative' direction and volume have been bullish. oscillators are useful because they identify when something like bitcoin has been "too bullish too long" or vice-versa. bull markets need to correct down, and bear markets need to correct up. lots o' red means we're 'overbought', or that the price of bitcoin is 'too high'.

2 is a moving-average based oscillator

a moving average is an average of, for instance the "last seven days". this helps smooth out the price data. the MACD is an oscillator as well, then moves from the positive to the negative zones of the graph, which tracks something like the 'momentum' of price.

4 is a directional index plus a momentum oscillator

on the Average Direction Index, there is a blue 'price momentum' line that is similar to the MACD, along with 'direction indicators', which reflect how recently we made new highs and lows. when the GREEN indicator is above the RED, that generally means that we have made new highs more recently than new lows.

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you should pick one of these and really get to know it. i would suggest the MACD. further reading can be found here (http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:moving_average_conve). don't try to familiarize yourself all at once with all four, unless you really want a crash course, as they are very different types of indicators.

hope any of this was helpful  :)

-arepo

if you profit from me, help keep it free!
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz

We also broke trend lines on most indicators in daily charts. Most interesting one is the Accumulation/Distribution indicator trend line, which wasn't broken in 9 months. Also, we're approaching centerline crossover on daily MACD.

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/1127246/Screenshots/lfx0.png

I've never been really interested in charts, but this one started my curiosity. Thanks for putting it up!
Does anyone know about webinars where all this stuff is explained? A a weekly bitcoin charts webinar would be a great thing to learn.

He is just a contrarian and always goes against the grain.  I believe the kids these days call this a troll.  I said the permabears were trolls and yep he is one of the few on the board now proving it by turning bull LOL.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/ is a good place to get started.

I have a hard time seeing how you call him a troll but all the people making the WRONG PREDICTIONS are not?  Not to mention he is incredibly polite in all his posts.  Perhaps you just disagree with his opinion...

arepo - I almost wish there was a stalker function so I get e-mailed all your posts...

Looks like your predictions are almost spot on... current indicators that I am seeing is a slow down at the 80 wall... Might be dropping soon, just have no clue how much.

Saw the EMA cross over at around 60, not confident enough yet to jump on my own predictions but I am doing "virtual" buys in my head... I may just do a bit of day trading on these bounces:)

I am starting to think 60 is probably a very good entry point (if we get there again)... but maybe it will drop more over a month like the last time. Just seems like there is more money in now so while I am hoping for 30 my gut is saying 50-60 is it.

Not gonna lie, I still have no clue. Appreciate you taking the time to try help me, but I really suck at this stuff ^_^. Don't bother further explaining it if you planned to :p I'm too dumb :(

Edit again lol: I truely did try my best to understand bahah

http://www.zawarudo.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/mind-blown-2.gif

Time to panic?

So much graphs, jeez.

my apologies. my analysis ranges from lightly technical (trend/triangle/support diagrams), to very technical (indicator interpretation). i recently made a technical-indicator-free post about the geometry of the crash (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=174219.msg1812805#msg1812805), along with some thorough insight about triangles.

if you're really interested in triangle consolidation patterns, you can see this post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=176582.msg1838814#msg1838814). warning: awesome fractal nesting!

Just to let you know, I thought your OP was perfect...  Simple explanation with enough detail to see in the graph.

I am just starting to pick up reading EMAs MACD, Slow Stochasic, and StochRSI... well at least those are the bitcoinchart indicators I am using.  Understood most of it relating to the graph, but I just know this line should be above that line, and above 0 etc etc...

Just want to thank you for your posts... coming to really respect them.

there are some deeper intuitive rationales that are mostly untested hypotheses, but indicators are designed to be able to be used mechanically like that, as long as you pick a winning strategy. sometimes the intuitive rationale helps recognize the degenerate cases -- ie in those cases (which there always will be) that the indicators do not correlate with the strictly mechanical rules, and heuristic deviation from the formula can be profitable.

i tried to offer some thorough insight in the first link you quoted above. it's light on charts and deep on explanation. i am a physics major and so i use a physics-based model for price, and i like to use physics analogies to understand seemingly analogous phenomena in the bitcoin price function. if you're familiar with high school physics and calculus, it could really help.

--arepo

i really appreciate that :)

i had some thoughts of doing a subscription-type service, or (because i can't stand the esotericism) post a weekly analysis for a bounty, if there is demand for such a thing. unfortunately, i cannot really post price targets in public analyses because of the anti-inductive nature of the market, but i can do general analysis for short-, mid-, and long-term projections. i recently sold some price targets during the 24 hour feeless gox session, to user Wobber, and the strategy produced 30% returns from the initial push from $90 - $120. if anyone else is interested in this, feel free to pm me.

and as always, i will continue to post what i have in the past -- comments on current market conditions through the lens of my home-grown physics model. this i can continue free for the forum's benefit, and as always, if you profit from me, please help keep it free! ;)

-arepo

Great analysis!  This thread(and a few others) really helped me today,  I almost made a huge mistake buying in at 70 b/c from what I could see we had hit bottom and were on our way back up and I was missing my chance to buy in cheap.  :D  

Thanks.   :-* I will be studying more of this EMAs MACD, Slow Stochasic, and StochRSI thing until I actually know a bit.


I would be very interested in that. There is so much to learn and it's very exciting.

Well we may have gone under $50 today had it not been for the OKCupid announcement.  I do think we will be there by Friday and my prediction after the burst was $30-$50 for new bottom.  Good job on the charts however, adoption and other news must always be factored in to get a full picture of where the price is headed.